{ "run": { "id": "cmnr15mln0772p6588c0cnaea", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr15ml1076np6580bak37xm", "ticker": "YUM", "snapshotId": "cmnr15mla076wp658qw5b2ec6", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:12.777Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr15mla076wp658qw5b2ec6", "assetId": "cmnr15ml1076np6580bak37xm", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "open": 158, "price": 160.43, "dayLow": 157.7945, "volume": 1213579, "dayHigh": 161.14, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 156.93, "week52Low": 137.33, "week52High": 169.39 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 27.0626118067979, "beta": 0.560260822968958, "epsTTM": 5.59, "fcfTTM": 1503000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.05871212121212113, "revenueYoy": 0.08809113789905948 }, "sector": "Retail-Eating Places", "margins": { "net": 0.1897979060141222, "gross": null, "operating": 0.3133674214755296 }, "website": "https://yum.com", "industry": "Foodservice", "pegRatio": 4.60937388193203, "ebitdaTTM": 2714000000, "forwardPe": 22.8174962292609, "marketCap": 41000000000, "totalCash": 709000000, "totalDebt": 11910000000, "debtEquity": -1.6259385665529, "quickRatio": 0.4676781002638523, "revenueTTM": 8214000000, "companyName": "YUM BRANDS INC", "priceToBook": -5.76285090114691, "currentRatio": 1.345646437994723, "dividendYield": 0.0187409138552927, "returnOnAssets": 0.1901915334878614, "returnOnEquity": -0.212832764505119, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Yum! Brands, Inc. (sometimes called just Yum!) is an American multinational fast food corporation. Based in Louisville, Kentucky, the company operates KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, Habit Burger & Grill, and several technology companies. Yum! is one of the world's largest fast food restaurant companies in terms of system units. In 2016, Yum! had 43,617 restaurants, including 2,859 that were company-owned and 40,758 that were franchised, in 135 nations and territories worldwide.", "enterpriseValue": 53408120000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 1, "sharesOutstanding": 276430130, "enterpriseToEbitda": 19.67874723655122, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 6.502084246408571, "operatingCashflowTTM": 2010000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:12.766Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr15mlp0774p658ouuo12ii", "runId": "cmnr15mln0772p6588c0cnaea", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"YUM\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":160.43,\"target_price_6m\":163,\"target_price_12m\":168,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Asset-light franchise model generates consistent high-margin cash flows\",\"Elevated PEG ratio of 4.6 signals stretched valuation relative to growth\",\"High leverage with $11.9B debt offsets shareholder returns capacity\",\"Taco Bell remains strongest growth engine among YUM's brand portfolio\",\"International unit expansion provides long-term runway but faces FX headwinds\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Global unit development pace across KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Taco Bell US same-store sales momentum\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Consumer spending slowdown in discretionary dining\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Foreign currency translation headwinds on international revenue\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Share buyback program reducing float and boosting EPS\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Franchise royalty rate optimization opportunities\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Pizza Hut brand turnaround execution risk\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Digital and technology platform investments improving order efficiency\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Elevated debt load (~$11.9B) limits financial flexibility in downturns\",\"Consumer trade-down or macro recession pressuring same-store sales\",\"Geopolitical risks in key international markets (China, Middle East)\",\"Rising food and labor costs squeezing franchisee profitability and unit growth\",\"Valuation premium compression if growth disappoints (PEG >4x)\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.055,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.32,\"wacc\":0.085,\"terminal_multiple\":24.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":140,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Macro recession drives same-store sales declines; multiple compresses to ~22x.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":168,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Mid-single-digit revenue growth, steady margins, EPS ~$6.80 at ~24.5x.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":192,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Accelerating unit growth plus strong Taco Bell comps push EPS above $7.20.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended forward P/E and EV/EBITDA approach. TTM EPS $5.59 projected to ~$6.80 in 12M via ~8% revenue growth, modest margin expansion, and buybacks. Applied ~24.5x forward earnings for base case. PEG >4x and negative equity signal limited margin of safety, supporting HOLD. Sell-side targets noted but not used as inputs. Disclaimer: not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Elevated debt load (~$11.9B) limits financial flexibility in downturns", "Consumer trade-down or macro recession pressuring same-store sales", "Geopolitical risks in key international markets (China, Middle East)", "Rising food and labor costs squeezing franchisee profitability and unit growth", "Valuation premium compression if growth disappoints (PEG >4x)" ], "ticker": "YUM", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Mid-single-digit revenue growth, steady margins, EPS ~$6.80 at ~24.5x.", "target_price": 168 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Macro recession drives same-store sales declines; multiple compresses to ~22x.", "target_price": 140 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Accelerating unit growth plus strong Taco Bell comps push EPS above $7.20.", "target_price": 192 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.055, "terminal_multiple": 24.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.32 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Global unit development pace across KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Taco Bell US same-store sales momentum", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Consumer spending slowdown in discretionary dining", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Foreign currency translation headwinds on international revenue", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Share buyback program reducing float and boosting EPS", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Franchise royalty rate optimization opportunities", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Pizza Hut brand turnaround execution risk", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Digital and technology platform investments improving order efficiency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Blended forward P/E and EV/EBITDA approach. TTM EPS $5.59 projected to ~$6.80 in 12M via ~8% revenue growth, modest margin expansion, and buybacks. Applied ~24.5x forward earnings for base case. PEG >4x and negative equity signal limited margin of safety, supporting HOLD. Sell-side targets noted but not used as inputs. Disclaimer: not investment advice.", "current_price": 160.43, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Asset-light franchise model generates consistent high-margin cash flows", "Elevated PEG ratio of 4.6 signals stretched valuation relative to growth", "High leverage with $11.9B debt offsets shareholder returns capacity", "Taco Bell remains strongest growth engine among YUM's brand portfolio", "International unit expansion provides long-term runway but faces FX headwinds" ], "target_price_6m": 163, "target_price_12m": 168 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 104677, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:12.777Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3643, "outputTokens": 1817, "costUsd": 0.06364 } }, { "id": "cmnr15mlp0777p658elhibp06", "runId": "cmnr15mln0772p6588c0cnaea", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Equity Research AI Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"YUM\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 160.43,\n \"target_price_6m\": 158,\n \"target_price_12m\": 165,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Steady revenue growth from franchise expansion.\",\n \"High operating margins support strong cash flows.\",\n \"Overvalued relative to earnings growth per high PEG.\",\n \"Stable dividend yield provides some downside protection.\",\n \"Mixed evidence on international vs. domestic growth.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Franchise unit expansion\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Same-store sales growth\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Commodity cost inflation\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt levels and interest rates\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Digital and delivery adoption\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competitive pressure in fast food\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory changes on health and wages\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Economic downturn reducing consumer spending\",\n \"Increased competition from new entrants\",\n \"Supply chain disruptions\",\n \"Currency fluctuations affecting international revenue\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.07,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.31,\n \"wacc\": 0.08,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 18\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 140, \"prob\": 0.25, \"notes\": \"Lower growth and multiple contraction due to economic headwinds.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 165, \"prob\": 0.5, \"notes\": \"Moderate growth with stable multiples as per current trends.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 185, \"prob\": 0.25, \"notes\": \"Accelerated unit expansion and margin improvement.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on forward P/E and growth assumptions; recommendation HOLD due to limited upside and high PEG ratio. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "Equity Research AI Model", "risks": [ "Economic downturn reducing consumer spending", "Increased competition from new entrants", "Supply chain disruptions", "Currency fluctuations affecting international revenue" ], "ticker": "YUM", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate growth with stable multiples as per current trends.", "target_price": 165 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Lower growth and multiple contraction due to economic headwinds.", "target_price": 140 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Accelerated unit expansion and margin improvement.", "target_price": 185 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.08, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.07, "terminal_multiple": 18, "ebit_margin_target": 0.31 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Franchise unit expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Same-store sales growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Commodity cost inflation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt levels and interest rates", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Digital and delivery adoption", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive pressure in fast food", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory changes on health and wages", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on forward P/E and growth assumptions; recommendation HOLD due to limited upside and high PEG ratio. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 160.43, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Steady revenue growth from franchise expansion.", "High operating margins support strong cash flows.", "Overvalued relative to earnings growth per high PEG.", "Stable dividend yield provides some downside protection.", "Mixed evidence on international vs. domestic growth." ], "target_price_6m": 158, "target_price_12m": 165 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 336, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:12.777Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2145, "outputTokens": 3530, "costUsd": 0.002083 } }, { "id": "cmnr15mlp0775p65845qc14ja", "runId": "cmnr15mln0772p6588c0cnaea", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearch-YUM-Hold\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"YUM\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 160.43,\n \"target_price_6m\": 162.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 165.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Highly franchised model provides stable, high-margin royalty streams and strong free cash flow generation.\",\n \"Taco Bell remains a standout growth driver with strong pricing power and cultural relevance.\",\n \"KFC and Pizza Hut face intense competition and uneven international recoveries, particularly in China.\",\n \"High debt load of $11.9B limits aggressive capital returns in a higher-rate environment.\",\n \"Valuation at ~23x forward P/E appears full, balancing steady growth against macroeconomic consumer pressures.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Taco Bell US Same-Store Sales\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"China Macroeconomic Recovery\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Global Unit Development Pace\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Franchisee Profitability\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Wage and Commodity Inflation\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Digital Sales Mix\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest Rate Environment\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged consumer spending downturn impacting quick-service restaurant traffic.\",\n \"Geopolitical tensions affecting international operations, especially Yum China royalties.\",\n \"Franchisee financial distress due to sustained wage and food cost inflation.\",\n \"Foreign exchange headwinds reducing reported international revenues.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.06,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.33,\n \"wacc\": 0.075,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 22.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 135.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Consumer spending slowdown and wage inflation hurt franchisees, driving multiple contraction to 19x.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 165.00,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Steady franchise fee growth, stable margins, and moderate unit expansion support a 23x multiple.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 185.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated Taco Bell growth and strong China recovery drive multiple expansion to 26x.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a 10-year DCF and 23x forward P/E multiple. The HOLD recommendation reflects a balanced risk/reward profile with ~3% upside to our 12M target, as steady franchise cash flows are offset by a full valuation and macro headwinds. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch-YUM-Hold", "risks": [ "Prolonged consumer spending downturn impacting quick-service restaurant traffic.", "Geopolitical tensions affecting international operations, especially Yum China royalties.", "Franchisee financial distress due to sustained wage and food cost inflation.", "Foreign exchange headwinds reducing reported international revenues." ], "ticker": "YUM", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady franchise fee growth, stable margins, and moderate unit expansion support a 23x multiple.", "target_price": 165 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Consumer spending slowdown and wage inflation hurt franchisees, driving multiple contraction to 19x.", "target_price": 135 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated Taco Bell growth and strong China recovery drive multiple expansion to 26x.", "target_price": 185 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.075, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 22, "ebit_margin_target": 0.33 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Taco Bell US Same-Store Sales", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "China Macroeconomic Recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Global Unit Development Pace", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Franchisee Profitability", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Wage and Commodity Inflation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Digital Sales Mix", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest Rate Environment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a 10-year DCF and 23x forward P/E multiple. The HOLD recommendation reflects a balanced risk/reward profile with ~3% upside to our 12M target, as steady franchise cash flows are offset by a full valuation and macro headwinds. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 160.43, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Highly franchised model provides stable, high-margin royalty streams and strong free cash flow generation.", "Taco Bell remains a standout growth driver with strong pricing power and cultural relevance.", "KFC and Pizza Hut face intense competition and uneven international recoveries, particularly in China.", "High debt load of $11.9B limits aggressive capital returns in a higher-rate environment.", "Valuation at ~23x forward P/E appears full, balancing steady growth against macroeconomic consumer pressures." ], "target_price_6m": 162, "target_price_12m": 165 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 20808, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:12.777Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2502, "outputTokens": 904, "costUsd": 0.015852 } }, { "id": "cmnr15mlp0773p658few8st22", "runId": "cmnr15mln0772p6588c0cnaea", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation v2\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"YUM\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":160.43,\"target_price_6m\":154,\"target_price_12m\":166,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.63,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Asset-light franchise mix supports resilient margins and cash generation.\",\"Taco Bell and KFC unit growth offset softer mature-market traffic.\",\"Digital ordering and menu innovation can lift mix and franchisee productivity.\",\"Premium valuation already discounts much of expected EPS growth.\",\"Leverage, FX, and China/consumer softness cap near-term upside.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Global unit growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Taco Bell same-store sales\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"KFC international recovery\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Digital mix and loyalty\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Franchisee health\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Input and wage inflation\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"China macro and FX\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Net leverage and refinancing cost\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Emerging-market demand slows or geopolitics disrupt KFC expansion.\",\"Franchisee profitability weakens, delaying net unit growth.\",\"Persistent FX headwinds reduce reported sales and EPS.\",\"Higher rates or debt refinancing pressure equity valuation.\",\"Value competition hurts traffic and mix.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.065,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.335,\"wacc\":0.076,\"terminal_multiple\":21},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":140,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Traffic weakens and valuation compresses as leverage concerns rise.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":166,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Steady unit growth and margins mostly offset premium multiple limits.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":185,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Faster international recovery and digital-led mix gains support upside.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Base case blends forward earnings and FCF yield for a franchised, low-beta but leveraged restaurant model. Snapshot quote/fundamentals were kept authoritative; no sell-side targets used as inputs. HOLD matches ~3.5% 12M price upside with mixed evidence. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation v2", "risks": [ "Emerging-market demand slows or geopolitics disrupt KFC expansion.", "Franchisee profitability weakens, delaying net unit growth.", "Persistent FX headwinds reduce reported sales and EPS.", "Higher rates or debt refinancing pressure equity valuation.", "Value competition hurts traffic and mix." ], "ticker": "YUM", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady unit growth and margins mostly offset premium multiple limits.", "target_price": 166 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Traffic weakens and valuation compresses as leverage concerns rise.", "target_price": 140 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Faster international recovery and digital-led mix gains support upside.", "target_price": 185 } }, "confidence": 0.63, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.076, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.065, "terminal_multiple": 21, "ebit_margin_target": 0.335 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Global unit growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Taco Bell same-store sales", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "KFC international recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Digital mix and loyalty", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Franchisee health", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Input and wage inflation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "China macro and FX", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Net leverage and refinancing cost", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Base case blends forward earnings and FCF yield for a franchised, low-beta but leveraged restaurant model. Snapshot quote/fundamentals were kept authoritative; no sell-side targets used as inputs. HOLD matches ~3.5% 12M price upside with mixed evidence. not investment advice", "current_price": 160.43, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Asset-light franchise mix supports resilient margins and cash generation.", "Taco Bell and KFC unit growth offset softer mature-market traffic.", "Digital ordering and menu innovation can lift mix and franchisee productivity.", "Premium valuation already discounts much of expected EPS growth.", "Leverage, FX, and China/consumer softness cap near-term upside." ], "target_price_6m": 154, "target_price_12m": 166 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_002d3470ec3f12c60069d75f1a580c81969d52501f15536327", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 33419, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:12.777Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2409, "outputTokens": 2048, "costUsd": 0.032888 } }, { "id": "cmnr15mlp0776p658uyvibdn5", "runId": "cmnr15mln0772p6588c0cnaea", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"YUM DCF Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"YUM\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 160.43,\n \"target_price_6m\": 164,\n \"target_price_12m\": 169,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Stable cash flows from franchise model\",\n \"International KFC growth in Asia key driver\",\n \"High PEG ratio signals potential overvaluation\",\n \"Debt burden increases financial risk profile\",\n \"Brand strength supports long-term competitive advantage\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"International expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Same-store sales growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Franchise profitability\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Commodity input costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Consumer discretionary spending\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Digital initiatives\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Competitive pressures\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Slowing growth in China market\",\n \"Rising labor and commodity costs\",\n \"High debt levels in rising rate environment\",\n \"Failure to innovate menu offerings\",\n \"Geopolitical risks in international operations\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.065,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.32,\n \"wacc\": 0.08,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 19\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 142,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Economic slowdown hurts consumer spending and unit growth.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 169,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Moderate growth and stable margins align with expectations.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 192,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Strong international expansion drives outperformance.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"3-stage DCF using rev CAGR 6.5%, 32% EBIT margin, 8% WACC and 19x terminal EV/EBIT. Target implies modest upside but mixed evidence leads to HOLD. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "YUM DCF Model", "risks": [ "Slowing growth in China market", "Rising labor and commodity costs", "High debt levels in rising rate environment", "Failure to innovate menu offerings", "Geopolitical risks in international operations" ], "ticker": "YUM", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate growth and stable margins align with expectations.", "target_price": 169 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Economic slowdown hurts consumer spending and unit growth.", "target_price": 142 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong international expansion drives outperformance.", "target_price": 192 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.08, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.065, "terminal_multiple": 19, "ebit_margin_target": 0.32 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "International expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Same-store sales growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Franchise profitability", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Commodity input costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Consumer discretionary spending", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Digital initiatives", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive pressures", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "3-stage DCF using rev CAGR 6.5%, 32% EBIT margin, 8% WACC and 19x terminal EV/EBIT. Target implies modest upside but mixed evidence leads to HOLD. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 160.43, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stable cash flows from franchise model", "International KFC growth in Asia key driver", "High PEG ratio signals potential overvaluation", "Debt burden increases financial risk profile", "Brand strength supports long-term competitive advantage" ], "target_price_6m": 164, "target_price_12m": 169 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "ef47c7a1-1f55-9a01-959f-6789b48a0ffa", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 22616, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:12.777Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2750, "outputTokens": 3737, "costUsd": 0.064305 } } ] } }