{ "run": { "id": "cmnr15kv9074up658ln5lihs8", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr15kux074qp658a3k3horo", "ticker": "XEL", "snapshotId": "cmnr15kv2074sp6581ipx9vqh", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:10.531Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr15kv2074sp6581ipx9vqh", "assetId": "cmnr15kux074qp658a3k3horo", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "open": 80.06, "price": 81.46, "dayLow": 79.605, "volume": 4283383, "dayHigh": 81.5, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 80.54, "week52Low": 65.21, "week52High": 84.23 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 21.4709302325581, "beta": 0.350664502083745, "epsTTM": 3.44, "fcfTTM": -7326000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0, "revenueYoy": 0.09087646900511348 }, "sector": "Electric & Other Services Combined", "margins": { "net": 0.1659539473684211, "gross": null, "operating": 0.2124177631578947 }, "website": "https://my.xcelenergy.com", "industry": "Utilities", "pegRatio": null, "ebitdaTTM": 7095000000, "forwardPe": 17.970802919708, "marketCap": 40260845645, "totalCash": 274000000, "totalDebt": 33382000000, "debtEquity": 1.41395230632386, "quickRatio": 0.22626604598674, "revenueTTM": 12160000000, "companyName": "XCEL ENERGY INC", "priceToBook": 0.533039330194131, "currentRatio": 0.7072929891381012, "dividendYield": 0.0312991427679144, "returnOnAssets": 0.02479999016848754, "returnOnEquity": 0.0854758778431954, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Xcel Energy Inc. is a U.S. regulated electric utility and natural gas delivery company based in Minneapolis, Minnesota, serving approximately 3.9 million electricity customers and 2.2 million natural gas customers across parts of eight states as of mid-2025. It consists of four operating subsidiaries: Northern States Power-Minnesota, Northern States Power-Wisconsin, Public Service Company of Colorado, and Southwestern Public Service Co.", "enterpriseValue": 76463820000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 11380, "sharesOutstanding": 623876813, "enterpriseToEbitda": 10.77714164904862, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 6.288143092105263, "operatingCashflowTTM": 4083000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:10.527Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr15kvc074wp658ackobfux", "runId": "cmnr15kv9074up658ln5lihs8", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"XEL\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":81.46,\"target_price_6m\":82.8,\"target_price_12m\":84.0,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.6,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Regulated utility with predictable earnings and constructive rate environments\",\"Forward P/E ~18x reflects market pricing in solid EPS growth trajectory\",\"Dividend yield ~3.1% cushions total return for income investors\",\"Massive capex program builds future rate base but strains balance sheet\",\"Trading near 52-week high limits near-term upside; fairly valued\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Rate base growth from large clean energy capex program\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Constructive regulatory outcomes across 8-state footprint\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Forward EPS growth toward ~$4.50+ from rate base expansion\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Rising interest rates increasing cost of embedded debt\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Elevated leverage (D/E 1.41) limiting financial flexibility\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Stable dividend growth supporting income-oriented demand\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Negative FCF (-$7.3B) signals ongoing external funding needs\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Political or regulatory shifts against utility clean energy plans\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Regulatory disallowance of capex in rate base compresses earnings growth\",\"Rising long-term rates increase refinancing costs on $33.4B debt load\",\"Extreme weather or wildfire liabilities create unexpected charges\",\"Equity dilution from ongoing capital needs with deeply negative FCF\",\"Policy headwinds to clean energy subsidies or mandates\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.055,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.215,\"wacc\":0.06,\"terminal_multiple\":18.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":72.0,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Regulatory setbacks, higher rates compress valuation to ~16x forward EPS.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":84.0,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Steady rate base growth, constructive regulation, ~18.5x forward EPS.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":95.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Accelerated clean energy buildout with favorable policy and rate relief.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Valuation anchored on forward P/E (~18-18.5x estimated FY+1 EPS of ~$4.53) cross-checked with EV/EBITDA and dividend discount context. Stock near 52-week high and fairly valued for a regulated utility; ~3.1% price-only 12M upside plus ~3.1% dividend yield implies ~6% total return, consistent with HOLD given moderate uncertainty on rate outcomes and balance sheet strain. Probability-weighted scenario target ~$84.4. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Regulatory disallowance of capex in rate base compresses earnings growth", "Rising long-term rates increase refinancing costs on $33.4B debt load", "Extreme weather or wildfire liabilities create unexpected charges", "Equity dilution from ongoing capital needs with deeply negative FCF", "Policy headwinds to clean energy subsidies or mandates" ], "ticker": "XEL", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady rate base growth, constructive regulation, ~18.5x forward EPS.", "target_price": 84 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Regulatory setbacks, higher rates compress valuation to ~16x forward EPS.", "target_price": 72 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Accelerated clean energy buildout with favorable policy and rate relief.", "target_price": 95 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.06, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.055, "terminal_multiple": 18.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.215 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Rate base growth from large clean energy capex program", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Constructive regulatory outcomes across 8-state footprint", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Forward EPS growth toward ~$4.50+ from rate base expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Rising interest rates increasing cost of embedded debt", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Elevated leverage (D/E 1.41) limiting financial flexibility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Stable dividend growth supporting income-oriented demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Negative FCF (-$7.3B) signals ongoing external funding needs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Political or regulatory shifts against utility clean energy plans", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation anchored on forward P/E (~18-18.5x estimated FY+1 EPS of ~$4.53) cross-checked with EV/EBITDA and dividend discount context. Stock near 52-week high and fairly valued for a regulated utility; ~3.1% price-only 12M upside plus ~3.1% dividend yield implies ~6% total return, consistent with HOLD given moderate uncertainty on rate outcomes and balance sheet strain. Probability-weighted scenario target ~$84.4. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 81.46, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Regulated utility with predictable earnings and constructive rate environments", "Forward P/E ~18x reflects market pricing in solid EPS growth trajectory", "Dividend yield ~3.1% cushions total return for income investors", "Massive capex program builds future rate base but strains balance sheet", "Trading near 52-week high limits near-term upside; fairly valued" ], "target_price_6m": 82.8, "target_price_12m": 84 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [ { "error": "sanity_error: buy_upside_too_low: BUY requires >= 6% implied 12M upside.; buy_scenario_return_too_low: BUY requires >= 6% return from probability-weighted scenarios.", "attempt": 0, "rawOutputTruncated": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"XEL\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":81.46,\"target_price_6m\":83.5,\"target_price_12m\":85.5,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.58,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Regulated utility with predictable earnings and constructive rate environments\",\"Forward P/E ~18x implies solid EPS growth toward ~$4.53 from capex-driven rate base expansion\",\"Dividend yield ~3.1% provides meaningful total return cushion\",\"Massive capex program (-$7.3B FCF) builds future rate base and earnings power\",\"Near 52-week high limits near-term upside; elevated debt warrants monitoring\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Rate base growth from clean energy capex program\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Constructive regulatory outcomes across 8-state footprint\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Rising interest rates increasing cost of embedded debt\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"EPS acceleration from forward P/E compression vs TTM\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Elevated leverage (D/E 1.41) limiting financial flexibility\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Stable dividend growth supporting inco…" } ], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 95079, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:10.531Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 4225, "outputTokens": 1174, "costUsd": 0.050475 } }, { "id": "cmnr15kvc074zp658f5lvnnkj", "runId": "cmnr15kv9074up658ln5lihs8", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"XEL\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 81.46,\n \"target_price_6m\": 80.8,\n \"target_price_12m\": 79.9,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Stable regulated utility with predictable earnings and dividends.\",\n \"Investing in renewables for long-term growth and sustainability.\",\n \"Fair valuation at current price with limited near-term upside.\",\n \"Dividend yield provides income but capital appreciation is modest.\",\n \"Balanced risk-reward profile amid regulatory and interest rate risks.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory rate case outcomes\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Renewable energy capital expenditures\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment changes\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Economic energy demand trends\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Dividend stability and yield\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt levels and cost management\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Adverse regulatory decisions reducing allowed returns\",\n \"Rising interest rates increasing cost of capital\",\n \"Operational disruptions from extreme weather events\",\n \"Slower adoption of renewable energy investments\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.21,\n \"wacc\": 0.065,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 17\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 75.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Regulatory challenges and higher rates pressure valuation.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 79.9, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Modest growth and stable margins support current levels.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 85.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Favorable rate cases and accelerated renewable adoption boost price.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on DCF with 5% revenue growth, 21% EBIT margin, 6.5% WACC, 17x terminal P/E. HOLD as 12M expected return ~-2%. not investment advice\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Adverse regulatory decisions reducing allowed returns", "Rising interest rates increasing cost of capital", "Operational disruptions from extreme weather events", "Slower adoption of renewable energy investments" ], "ticker": "XEL", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Modest growth and stable margins support current levels.", "target_price": 79.9 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Regulatory challenges and higher rates pressure valuation.", "target_price": 75 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Favorable rate cases and accelerated renewable adoption boost price.", "target_price": 85 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.065, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 17, "ebit_margin_target": 0.21 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Regulatory rate case outcomes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Renewable energy capital expenditures", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment changes", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Economic energy demand trends", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend stability and yield", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt levels and cost management", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on DCF with 5% revenue growth, 21% EBIT margin, 6.5% WACC, 17x terminal P/E. HOLD as 12M expected return ~-2%. not investment advice", "current_price": 81.46, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stable regulated utility with predictable earnings and dividends.", "Investing in renewables for long-term growth and sustainability.", "Fair valuation at current price with limited near-term upside.", "Dividend yield provides income but capital appreciation is modest.", "Balanced risk-reward profile amid regulatory and interest rate risks." ], "target_price_6m": 80.8, "target_price_12m": 79.9 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 406, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:10.531Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2108, "outputTokens": 4233, "costUsd": 0.002368 } }, { "id": "cmnr15kvc074xp65882unymtv", "runId": "cmnr15kv9074up658ln5lihs8", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Model Recommendation\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"XEL\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 81.46,\n \"target_price_6m\": 83.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 85.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.7,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Xcel offers solid rate base growth driven by aggressive clean energy transition investments.\",\n \"Valuation appears full at ~18x forward P/E, limiting near-term multiple expansion potential.\",\n \"Wildfire liability risks in Colorado and Texas remain an overhang on the risk premium.\",\n \"High capital expenditure requirements drive negative free cash flow and necessitate ongoing external financing.\",\n \"Dividend yield of 3.1% provides a stable floor, but total return upside is constrained.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Rate case outcomes\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Wildfire litigation and settlements\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Renewable capex execution\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Weather and load growth\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Debt financing costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Adverse regulatory rulings in key jurisdictions like Colorado and Minnesota.\",\n \"Escalating wildfire liabilities and associated insurance cost increases.\",\n \"Higher-for-longer interest rates increasing debt servicing costs.\",\n \"Supply chain delays impacting renewable energy project timelines.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.04,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.22,\n \"wacc\": 0.065,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 18.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 72.0,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Adverse wildfire rulings and unfavorable rate cases compress multiple to 15x.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 85.0,\n \"prob\": 0.6,\n \"notes\": \"Constructive regulatory outcomes and steady 6% EPS growth support current ~18x forward multiple.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 95.0,\n \"prob\": 0.15,\n \"notes\": \"Favorable legislative relief on wildfire liabilities and accelerated rate base growth drive multiple to 20x.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a blend of historical P/E (18x forward EPS) and DCF (6.5% WACC). Recommendation is HOLD due to limited price upside (+4.3%) balancing strong rate base growth against wildfire risks and high capex. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation", "risks": [ "Adverse regulatory rulings in key jurisdictions like Colorado and Minnesota.", "Escalating wildfire liabilities and associated insurance cost increases.", "Higher-for-longer interest rates increasing debt servicing costs.", "Supply chain delays impacting renewable energy project timelines." ], "ticker": "XEL", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Constructive regulatory outcomes and steady 6% EPS growth support current ~18x forward multiple.", "target_price": 85 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Adverse wildfire rulings and unfavorable rate cases compress multiple to 15x.", "target_price": 72 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.15, "notes": "Favorable legislative relief on wildfire liabilities and accelerated rate base growth drive multiple to 20x.", "target_price": 95 } }, "confidence": 0.7, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.065, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 18, "ebit_margin_target": 0.22 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Rate case outcomes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Wildfire litigation and settlements", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Renewable capex execution", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Weather and load growth", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt financing costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a blend of historical P/E (18x forward EPS) and DCF (6.5% WACC). Recommendation is HOLD due to limited price upside (+4.3%) balancing strong rate base growth against wildfire risks and high capex. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 81.46, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Xcel offers solid rate base growth driven by aggressive clean energy transition investments.", "Valuation appears full at ~18x forward P/E, limiting near-term multiple expansion potential.", "Wildfire liability risks in Colorado and Texas remain an overhang on the risk premium.", "High capital expenditure requirements drive negative free cash flow and necessitate ongoing external financing.", "Dividend yield of 3.1% provides a stable floor, but total return upside is constrained." ], "target_price_6m": 83, "target_price_12m": 85 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 29787, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:10.531Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2437, "outputTokens": 835, "costUsd": 0.014894 } }, { "id": "cmnr15kvc074vp658zeusfb66", "runId": "cmnr15kv9074up658ln5lihs8", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"gpt-5\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"XEL\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":81.46,\"target_price_6m\":84,\"target_price_12m\":85.5,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.67,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Regulated utility profile supports visible earnings and dividend growth.\",\"Planned grid and generation capex should expand rate base steadily.\",\"Current valuation near 18x forward earnings already discounts much of that stability.\",\"High leverage and persistent negative free cash flow limit multiple expansion.\",\"Wildfire, storm, and regulatory outcomes create downside skew despite defensive demand.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Rate base growth from grid investment\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Constructive regulatory recovery mechanisms\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Load growth from electrification and data centers\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend support for valuation\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Higher financing costs on capex\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Wildfire and storm liability exposure\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Balance-sheet leverage\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Execution on generation transition projects\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Adverse wildfire litigation or insurance outcomes.\",\"Regulatory lag or lower allowed returns.\",\"Capex overruns, permitting delays, or weaker load growth.\",\"Higher-for-longer rates pressuring financing costs and utility multiples.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":5.2,\"ebit_margin_target\":24,\"wacc\":6.4,\"terminal_multiple\":11},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":72,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Liability, rate-case, and financing pressures compress multiples and earnings.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":85.5,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Steady rate-base growth supports EPS, but valuation stays near current utility norms.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":94,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Constructive regulation and lower yields allow modest multiple expansion.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Base case uses snapshot data and a blended forward P/E and EV/EBITDA utility framework; no sell-side targets used. HOLD fits roughly 5% 12M price upside with balanced regulatory and liability risks; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "gpt-5", "risks": [ "Adverse wildfire litigation or insurance outcomes.", "Regulatory lag or lower allowed returns.", "Capex overruns, permitting delays, or weaker load growth.", "Higher-for-longer rates pressuring financing costs and utility multiples." ], "ticker": "XEL", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady rate-base growth supports EPS, but valuation stays near current utility norms.", "target_price": 85.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Liability, rate-case, and financing pressures compress multiples and earnings.", "target_price": 72 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Constructive regulation and lower yields allow modest multiple expansion.", "target_price": 94 } }, "confidence": 0.67, "assumptions": { "wacc": 6.4, "revenue_cagr_3y": 5.2, "terminal_multiple": 11, "ebit_margin_target": 24 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Rate base growth from grid investment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Constructive regulatory recovery mechanisms", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Load growth from electrification and data centers", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend support for valuation", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Higher financing costs on capex", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Wildfire and storm liability exposure", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Balance-sheet leverage", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Execution on generation transition projects", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Base case uses snapshot data and a blended forward P/E and EV/EBITDA utility framework; no sell-side targets used. HOLD fits roughly 5% 12M price upside with balanced regulatory and liability risks; not investment advice.", "current_price": 81.46, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Regulated utility profile supports visible earnings and dividend growth.", "Planned grid and generation capex should expand rate base steadily.", "Current valuation near 18x forward earnings already discounts much of that stability.", "High leverage and persistent negative free cash flow limit multiple expansion.", "Wildfire, storm, and regulatory outcomes create downside skew despite defensive demand." ], "target_price_6m": 84, "target_price_12m": 85.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0d803bb4d5c556ef0069d75ef9fad48195b876054fab9ca5d3", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 38676, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:10.531Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2377, "outputTokens": 2227, "costUsd": 0.035338 } }, { "id": "cmnr15kvc074yp65827akh3tp", "runId": "cmnr15kv9074up658ln5lihs8", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Regulated Utility DCF\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"XEL\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 81.46,\n \"target_price_6m\": 85,\n \"target_price_12m\": 89,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Rising data center demand boosts load growth\",\n \"Regulatory support for renewable capex plans\",\n \"Stable regulated cash flows and 3.1% yield\",\n \"High debt and negative FCF from investments\",\n \"Fair valuation limits margin of safety\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Data center load growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Renewables capex approvals\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate trajectory\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory rate setting\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Dividend growth consistency\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Capex execution risk\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"EV and electrification demand\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Inflation on operating costs\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Adverse rate case outcomes\",\n \"Higher financing costs from rates\",\n \"Capex overruns or delays\",\n \"Extreme weather operational hits\",\n \"Policy shifts on renewables\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.215,\n \"wacc\": 0.06,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 17.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 73,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Higher rates and regulatory hurdles compress multiples.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 89,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Steady demand and allowed returns support modest growth.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 102,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated AI-driven load significantly lifts earnings.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF with 5% rev CAGR, 6% WACC, 17.5x terminal EV/EBITDA. Modest 9% upside consistent with BUY rubric given demand tailwinds vs capex risks; not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "Regulated Utility DCF", "risks": [ "Adverse rate case outcomes", "Higher financing costs from rates", "Capex overruns or delays", "Extreme weather operational hits", "Policy shifts on renewables" ], "ticker": "XEL", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady demand and allowed returns support modest growth.", "target_price": 89 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Higher rates and regulatory hurdles compress multiples.", "target_price": 73 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated AI-driven load significantly lifts earnings.", "target_price": 102 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.06, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 17.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.215 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Data center load growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Renewables capex approvals", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate trajectory", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory rate setting", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend growth consistency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Capex execution risk", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "EV and electrification demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Inflation on operating costs", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF with 5% rev CAGR, 6% WACC, 17.5x terminal EV/EBITDA. Modest 9% upside consistent with BUY rubric given demand tailwinds vs capex risks; not investment advice.", "current_price": 81.46, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Rising data center demand boosts load growth", "Regulatory support for renewable capex plans", "Stable regulated cash flows and 3.1% yield", "High debt and negative FCF from investments", "Fair valuation limits margin of safety" ], "target_price_6m": 85, "target_price_12m": 89 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "659a2436-a7ec-9e9c-aef7-5f9cf499731b", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 14168, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:10.531Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2717, "outputTokens": 2950, "costUsd": 0.052401 } } ] } }