{ "run": { "id": "cmnr15krm074gp6580gqd9f5o", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr15kr8074cp658a9ushwuu", "ticker": "WYNN", "snapshotId": "cmnr15kre074ep658opu8vrzr", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:10.400Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr15kre074ep658opu8vrzr", "assetId": "cmnr15kr8074cp658a9ushwuu", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "open": 105.34, "price": 105.24, "dayLow": 104.53, "volume": 2548042, "dayHigh": 107.95, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 100.43, "week52Low": 65.25, "week52High": 134.72 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 38.0791139240506, "beta": 1.20828707824723, "epsTTM": 3.16, "fcfTTM": 627381000, "growth": { "epsYoy": -0.307017543859649, "revenueYoy": 0.00139773492026682 }, "sector": "Hotels & Motels", "margins": { "net": 0.04585843166724667, "gross": null, "operating": 0.1566819708363384 }, "website": "http://wynnresorts.com", "industry": "Hospitality", "pegRatio": -1.24029113924051, "ebitdaTTM": 1582766000, "forwardPe": 25.06875, "marketCap": 9660000000, "totalCash": 1463442000, "totalDebt": 10556222000, "debtEquity": -38.3177079552219, "quickRatio": 1.135654810373557, "revenueTTM": 7137924000, "companyName": "WYNN RESORTS LTD", "priceToBook": -12.0994027901276, "currentRatio": 1.63312860809967, "dividendYield": 0.0140990522300306, "returnOnAssets": 0.02497185522527759, "returnOnEquity": -1.18817969305824, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Wynn Resorts, Limited is an American publicly traded corporation based in Paradise, Nevada, that is a developer and operator of high-end hotels and casinos. It was founded in 2002 by former Mirage Resorts Chairman and CEO Steve Wynn and is now run by CEO Craig Billings. As of 2020, the company has developed six properties.", "enterpriseValue": 21570640010, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 28000, "sharesOutstanding": 104283291, "enterpriseToEbitda": 13.6284453987513, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 3.021976699387665, "operatingCashflowTTM": 1352653000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:10.395Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr15krp074ip658xddpvqbz", "runId": "cmnr15krm074gp6580gqd9f5o", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"WYNN\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":105.24,\"target_price_6m\":112,\"target_price_12m\":118,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.58,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Forward PE of 25x implies meaningful EPS recovery ahead\",\"EV/EBITDA at 13.6x is reasonable versus gaming peers\",\"$627M annual FCF supports deleveraging and dividend sustainability\",\"Macau normalization and potential UAE expansion offer growth catalysts\",\"Heavy $10.6B debt load and negative equity cap upside confidence\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Macau GGR recovery trajectory\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Wynn Al Marjan Island (UAE) opening timeline\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Total debt of $10.6B with rising interest expense\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"EPS declined 30.7% YoY with flat revenue\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating cash flow of $1.35B supports debt service\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Forward PE compression from 38x trailing to 25x\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Consumer discretionary spending sensitivity to macro\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend yield of ~1.4% provides modest income\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Severe leverage ($10.6B debt, negative book equity) limits financial flexibility\",\"Macau regulatory changes or travel policy tightening\",\"Consumer spending slowdown in key US and China markets\",\"Rising interest rates increasing debt service burden\",\"Construction cost overruns or delays on UAE project\",\"Geopolitical risks affecting Macau operations\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.05,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.18,\"wacc\":0.105,\"terminal_multiple\":13},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":80,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Macau softness persists, EPS stalls near $3, multiple compresses on debt concerns.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":118,\"prob\":0.50,\"notes\":\"Gradual EPS recovery to ~$4.50, stable multiples, Macau normalizes moderately.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":148,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Strong Macau rebound, UAE excitement lifts sentiment, EPS approaches $5.50.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended EV/EBITDA (13-14x on ~$1.65B forward) and forward PE (25-26x on ~$4.50 EPS) valuation. Heavy debt and negative equity weigh on confidence. 12M base target ~$118 implies ~12% upside, supporting BUY. Probability-weighted scenario value ~$116 cross-checks base. Sell-side targets noted but not used as inputs. Disclaimer: not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Severe leverage ($10.6B debt, negative book equity) limits financial flexibility", "Macau regulatory changes or travel policy tightening", "Consumer spending slowdown in key US and China markets", "Rising interest rates increasing debt service burden", "Construction cost overruns or delays on UAE project", "Geopolitical risks affecting Macau operations" ], "ticker": "WYNN", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Gradual EPS recovery to ~$4.50, stable multiples, Macau normalizes moderately.", "target_price": 118 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Macau softness persists, EPS stalls near $3, multiple compresses on debt concerns.", "target_price": 80 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong Macau rebound, UAE excitement lifts sentiment, EPS approaches $5.50.", "target_price": 148 } }, "confidence": 0.58, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.105, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 13, "ebit_margin_target": 0.18 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Macau GGR recovery trajectory", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Wynn Al Marjan Island (UAE) opening timeline", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Total debt of $10.6B with rising interest expense", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "EPS declined 30.7% YoY with flat revenue", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operating cash flow of $1.35B supports debt service", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Forward PE compression from 38x trailing to 25x", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Consumer discretionary spending sensitivity to macro", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend yield of ~1.4% provides modest income", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Blended EV/EBITDA (13-14x on ~$1.65B forward) and forward PE (25-26x on ~$4.50 EPS) valuation. Heavy debt and negative equity weigh on confidence. 12M base target ~$118 implies ~12% upside, supporting BUY. Probability-weighted scenario value ~$116 cross-checks base. Sell-side targets noted but not used as inputs. Disclaimer: not investment advice.", "current_price": 105.24, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Forward PE of 25x implies meaningful EPS recovery ahead", "EV/EBITDA at 13.6x is reasonable versus gaming peers", "$627M annual FCF supports deleveraging and dividend sustainability", "Macau normalization and potential UAE expansion offer growth catalysts", "Heavy $10.6B debt load and negative equity cap upside confidence" ], "target_price_6m": 112, "target_price_12m": 118 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 58202, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:10.400Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3595, "outputTokens": 1902, "costUsd": 0.065525 } }, { "id": "cmnr15krp074lp658obe50qbb", "runId": "cmnr15krm074gp6580gqd9f5o", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model V1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"WYNN\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 105.24,\n \"target_price_6m\": 106.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 108.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Macau recovery supports revenue growth.\",\n \"High financial leverage increases risk.\",\n \"Strong brand equity in luxury segment.\",\n \"Cyclical exposure limits margin expansion.\",\n \"Fair valuation based on DCF analysis.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\"driver\": \"Macau gaming recovery\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Economic cycles\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Debt levels\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Cost management\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Competition\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"New market opportunities\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\"}\n ],\n \"risks\": [\"High leverage\", \"Macau regulatory changes\", \"Economic recession\", \"Increased competition\"],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.16,\n \"wacc\": 0.1,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 12.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\"target_price\": 100.0, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Economic downturn impacts gaming.\"},\n \"base\": {\"target_price\": 108.0, \"prob\": 0.5, \"notes\": \"Modest growth and stable operations.\"},\n \"bull\": {\"target_price\": 120.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong recovery and debt improvement.\"}\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF with 5% revenue growth, 16% EBIT margin, 10% WACC. 2.6% upside supports HOLD. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model V1", "risks": [ "High leverage", "Macau regulatory changes", "Economic recession", "Increased competition" ], "ticker": "WYNN", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Modest growth and stable operations.", "target_price": 108 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Economic downturn impacts gaming.", "target_price": 100 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong recovery and debt improvement.", "target_price": 120 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.1, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 12, "ebit_margin_target": 0.16 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Macau gaming recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Economic cycles", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt levels", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Cost management", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competition", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "New market opportunities", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "DCF with 5% revenue growth, 16% EBIT margin, 10% WACC. 2.6% upside supports HOLD. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 105.24, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Macau recovery supports revenue growth.", "High financial leverage increases risk.", "Strong brand equity in luxury segment.", "Cyclical exposure limits margin expansion.", "Fair valuation based on DCF analysis." ], "target_price_6m": 106, "target_price_12m": 108 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [ { "error": "sanity_error: buy_scenario_return_too_low: BUY requires >= 6% return from probability-weighted scenarios.", "attempt": 0, "rawOutputTruncated": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model V1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"WYNN\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 105.24,\n \"target_price_6m\": 110.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 114.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\"Recovery in high-end tourism drives growth.\", \"Strong operating margins support cash flow.\", \"Debt reduction could improve ROE.\", \"Cyclical exposure poses downside risk.\", \"Valuation remains elevated vs peers.\"],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\"driver\": \"Macau gaming recovery\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Las Vegas demand\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Debt levels\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Economic cycles\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Competition\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"New market expansion\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Regulatory environment\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Cost management\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"}\n ],\n \"risks\": [\"High financial leverage\", \"Macau regulatory changes\", \"Economic downturn impact\", …" } ], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 598, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:10.400Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2741, "outputTokens": 3670, "costUsd": 0.002309 } }, { "id": "cmnr15krp074jp658bmtytldz", "runId": "cmnr15krm074gp6580gqd9f5o", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Analyst v1.0\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"WYNN\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 105.24,\n \"target_price_6m\": 107.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 110.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Macau recovery is stabilizing but faces headwinds from China's broader macroeconomic slowdown.\",\n \"Las Vegas operations remain robust, though consumer discretionary spending may be peaking.\",\n \"Wynn Al Marjan (UAE) offers a strong long-term catalyst but requires heavy near-term capex.\",\n \"High debt load of $10.5B limits capital returns and increases interest rate sensitivity.\",\n \"Valuation at 13.6x EV/EBITDA appears full given stagnant revenue and declining EPS.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Macau Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR)\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"China Macroeconomic Health\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Las Vegas RevPAR & Casino Drop\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"UAE Project Capex & Execution\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest Rate Environment\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"VIP vs Mass Market Mix\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged economic slowdown in China impacting Macau visitation and spend.\",\n \"US consumer recession reducing Las Vegas gaming and non-gaming revenues.\",\n \"Execution and regulatory risks associated with the new UAE integrated resort.\",\n \"Refinancing risks and high interest expenses due to $10.5B debt burden.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.03,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.16,\n \"wacc\": 0.095,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 12.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 75.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"China macro hard landing and US consumer recession compress gaming multiples.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 110.00,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Macau stabilizes and Vegas normalizes, balancing high debt and stagnant near-term growth.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 135.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Strong Macau VIP resurgence and accelerated UAE development drive multiple expansion.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on SOTP EV/EBITDA and DCF. High leverage and stagnant growth offset UAE catalyst, resulting in a HOLD (+4.5% upside). Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Analyst v1.0", "risks": [ "Prolonged economic slowdown in China impacting Macau visitation and spend.", "US consumer recession reducing Las Vegas gaming and non-gaming revenues.", "Execution and regulatory risks associated with the new UAE integrated resort.", "Refinancing risks and high interest expenses due to $10.5B debt burden." ], "ticker": "WYNN", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Macau stabilizes and Vegas normalizes, balancing high debt and stagnant near-term growth.", "target_price": 110 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "China macro hard landing and US consumer recession compress gaming multiples.", "target_price": 75 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong Macau VIP resurgence and accelerated UAE development drive multiple expansion.", "target_price": 135 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.03, "terminal_multiple": 12, "ebit_margin_target": 0.16 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Macau Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR)", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "China Macroeconomic Health", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Las Vegas RevPAR & Casino Drop", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "UAE Project Capex & Execution", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest Rate Environment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "VIP vs Mass Market Mix", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on SOTP EV/EBITDA and DCF. High leverage and stagnant growth offset UAE catalyst, resulting in a HOLD (+4.5% upside). Not investment advice.", "current_price": 105.24, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Macau recovery is stabilizing but faces headwinds from China's broader macroeconomic slowdown.", "Las Vegas operations remain robust, though consumer discretionary spending may be peaking.", "Wynn Al Marjan (UAE) offers a strong long-term catalyst but requires heavy near-term capex.", "High debt load of $10.5B limits capital returns and increases interest rate sensitivity.", "Valuation at 13.6x EV/EBITDA appears full given stagnant revenue and declining EPS." ], "target_price_6m": 107, "target_price_12m": 110 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 23431, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:10.400Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2447, "outputTokens": 848, "costUsd": 0.01507 } }, { "id": "cmnr15krp074hp65898mg0ac2", "runId": "cmnr15krm074gp6580gqd9f5o", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"gpt-5\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"WYNN\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":105.24,\"target_price_6m\":108.0,\"target_price_12m\":110.0,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.61,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Macau premium-mass recovery supports EBITDA despite muted reported revenue growth.\",\"Las Vegas and Boston assets provide diversified cash generation.\",\"UAE project adds long-duration optionality but limited 12-month earnings contribution.\",\"High leverage and interest expense cap equity rerating potential.\",\"Current valuation appears near fair value on forward EBITDA and FCF.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Macau premium-mass demand\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"China consumer weakness\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Las Vegas ADR/convention demand\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Net leverage and interest burden\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"UAE project milestones\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"VIP mix normalization\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Capex intensity\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Shareholder returns discipline\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"China macro and travel softness\",\"Macau regulatory or concession changes\",\"UAE construction delays or overruns\",\"High leverage and refinancing costs\",\"Las Vegas demand normalization\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.06,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.18,\"wacc\":0.095,\"terminal_multiple\":11.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":78.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Macau demand stalls and leverage limits equity value.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":110.0,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Steady Macau recovery offsets softer US trends and heavy capex.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":138.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Macau mix improves faster and UAE optionality gains value.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Snapshot quote/fundamentals used as authoritative. 12M target is scenario-weighted forward EV/EBITDA cross-checked to FCF yield; I did not use sell-side targets. Mixed recovery, leverage and UAE optionality imply near-fair value, so HOLD; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "gpt-5", "risks": [ "China macro and travel softness", "Macau regulatory or concession changes", "UAE construction delays or overruns", "High leverage and refinancing costs", "Las Vegas demand normalization" ], "ticker": "WYNN", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady Macau recovery offsets softer US trends and heavy capex.", "target_price": 110 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Macau demand stalls and leverage limits equity value.", "target_price": 78 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Macau mix improves faster and UAE optionality gains value.", "target_price": 138 } }, "confidence": 0.61, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 11.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.18 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Macau premium-mass demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "China consumer weakness", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Las Vegas ADR/convention demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Net leverage and interest burden", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "UAE project milestones", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "VIP mix normalization", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Capex intensity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Shareholder returns discipline", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Snapshot quote/fundamentals used as authoritative. 12M target is scenario-weighted forward EV/EBITDA cross-checked to FCF yield; I did not use sell-side targets. Mixed recovery, leverage and UAE optionality imply near-fair value, so HOLD; not investment advice.", "current_price": 105.24, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Macau premium-mass recovery supports EBITDA despite muted reported revenue growth.", "Las Vegas and Boston assets provide diversified cash generation.", "UAE project adds long-duration optionality but limited 12-month earnings contribution.", "High leverage and interest expense cap equity rerating potential.", "Current valuation appears near fair value on forward EBITDA and FCF." ], "target_price_6m": 108, "target_price_12m": 110 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_07c1232f5469a3300069d75ef86a3c81958f125a32ba80c70c", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 46676, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:10.400Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2370, "outputTokens": 2781, "costUsd": 0.043082 } }, { "id": "cmnr15krp074kp6589z2ull60", "runId": "cmnr15krm074gp6580gqd9f5o", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Fundamental Valuation Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"WYNN\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 105.24,\n \"target_price_6m\": 113,\n \"target_price_12m\": 122,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.61,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Macau recovery boosts revenue with rising tourism\",\n \"Las Vegas delivers strong margins and occupancy\",\n \"High debt load adds vulnerability to rate hikes\",\n \"Premium brand supports long-term pricing power\",\n \"Valuation offers entry amid expected growth rebound\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Macau gaming revenue recovery\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Las Vegas premium demand strength\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"China economic slowdown\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Debt servicing costs\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"New market expansion projects\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory changes in Asia\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operational efficiency gains\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Competition from new casinos\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged China economic weakness\",\n \"Rising interest rates on high debt\",\n \"Macau regulatory tightening\",\n \"Global recession curbing travel\",\n \"Geopolitical travel disruptions\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.085,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.19,\n \"wacc\": 0.095,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 11.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 78,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Extended China weakness and recession reduce demand.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 122,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Steady market recovery with moderate margin gains.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 158,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated growth from new venues and strong economies.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF model using revenue CAGR, target EBIT margin, 9.5% WACC and 11.5x terminal EV/EBITDA. Base case yields 16% upside supporting BUY. not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI Fundamental Valuation Model", "risks": [ "Prolonged China economic weakness", "Rising interest rates on high debt", "Macau regulatory tightening", "Global recession curbing travel", "Geopolitical travel disruptions" ], "ticker": "WYNN", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady market recovery with moderate margin gains.", "target_price": 122 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Extended China weakness and recession reduce demand.", "target_price": 78 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated growth from new venues and strong economies.", "target_price": 158 } }, "confidence": 0.61, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.085, "terminal_multiple": 11.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.19 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Macau gaming revenue recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Las Vegas premium demand strength", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "China economic slowdown", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt servicing costs", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "New market expansion projects", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory changes in Asia", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operational efficiency gains", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competition from new casinos", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF model using revenue CAGR, target EBIT margin, 9.5% WACC and 11.5x terminal EV/EBITDA. Base case yields 16% upside supporting BUY. not investment advice.", "current_price": 105.24, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Macau recovery boosts revenue with rising tourism", "Las Vegas delivers strong margins and occupancy", "High debt load adds vulnerability to rate hikes", "Premium brand supports long-term pricing power", "Valuation offers entry amid expected growth rebound" ], "target_price_6m": 113, "target_price_12m": 122 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "b8037a62-020e-9232-a452-34b6ae3aa882", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 13900, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:10.400Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2710, "outputTokens": 2571, "costUsd": 0.046695 } } ] } }