{ "run": { "id": "cmnr15jhv070kp658698ac7qq", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr15jhk070gp65875gy0va7", "ticker": "WEC", "snapshotId": "cmnr15jho070ip658d9aj5bas", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:08.753Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr15jho070ip658d9aj5bas", "assetId": "cmnr15jhk070gp65875gy0va7", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "open": 115.74, "price": 117.28, "dayLow": 115.28, "volume": 1814401, "dayHigh": 117.31, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 116.94, "week52Low": 100.605, "week52High": 118.53 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 21.7892561983471, "beta": 0.281899133051146, "epsTTM": 4.84, "fcfTTM": -311400000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.002070393374741157, "revenueYoy": 0.1395597623228177 }, "sector": "Electric & Other Services Combined", "margins": { "net": 0.1587228701747941, "gross": null, "operating": 0.2290690911317231 }, "website": "http://wecenergygroup.com", "industry": null, "pegRatio": 105.242107438014, "ebitdaTTM": 2227400000, "forwardPe": 18.8321428571429, "marketCap": 33500000000, "totalCash": 27600000, "totalDebt": 21942200000, "debtEquity": 1.56141124900376, "quickRatio": 0.3737082990667572, "revenueTTM": 9800100000, "companyName": "WEC ENERGY GROUP, INC.", "priceToBook": 0.659673190675694, "currentRatio": 0.5872456824114135, "dividendYield": 0.0338109580378262, "returnOnAssets": 0.03019315466542957, "returnOnEquity": 0.110689684618012, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "WEC Energy Group is an American energy company based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. It provides electricity and natural gas to 4.4 million customers across four states.", "enterpriseValue": 55862174000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 7017, "sharesOutstanding": 325531361, "enterpriseToEbitda": 25.0795429648918, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 5.700163671799268, "operatingCashflowTTM": 3379400000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:08.749Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr15jhx070mp658harmc01g", "runId": "cmnr15jhv070kp658698ac7qq", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"WEC\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":117.28,\"target_price_6m\":119.5,\"target_price_12m\":122.0,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Regulated utility trading near 52-week high with limited price upside\",\"Negative FCF reflects heavy capex for future rate base growth\",\"Forward P/E of 18.8x implies meaningful expected earnings recovery\",\"Dividend yield of 3.4% provides reasonable income floor\",\"High PEG ratio signals limited organic growth relative to valuation\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Rate base growth from infrastructure capex programs\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory rate case outcomes across four-state service territory\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest rate environment impacting utility valuations and debt costs\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Elevated debt/equity of 1.56x increases financial leverage risk\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Stable 4.4M customer base supports recurring revenue\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Clean energy transition capex opportunities\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Very low EPS YoY growth of 0.2% despite 14% revenue growth\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Low beta of 0.28 offers defensive positioning in volatile markets\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Unfavorable regulatory decisions could limit allowed returns and earnings growth\",\"Rising interest rates compress utility multiples and increase refinancing costs\",\"Negative FCF persists if capex exceeds regulatory recovery timelines\",\"Severe weather events or grid reliability issues increase unplanned costs\",\"Political or policy shifts affecting clean energy investment incentives\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.045,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.23,\"wacc\":0.06,\"terminal_multiple\":14.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":105.0,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Rate case setbacks plus rising rates compress multiples below 18x forward P/E.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":122.0,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Steady rate base growth, constructive regulatory outcomes, forward EPS ~$6.20 at 19.5x.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":135.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Favorable rate cases and accelerated clean energy capex drive EPS above $6.50 at 20.5x.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Utility-focused valuation anchored on forward P/E (18.8x snapshot) and regulated earnings power. Rate base growth of ~4-5% supports mid-single-digit EPS CAGR. 12M price target of $122 implies ~4% price return plus ~3.4% dividend yield = ~7.4% total return, but price-only return within HOLD band. Stock near 52-week high limits margin of safety. EV/EBITDA of 25x is premium; terminal assumption of 14x reflects normalized range. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Unfavorable regulatory decisions could limit allowed returns and earnings growth", "Rising interest rates compress utility multiples and increase refinancing costs", "Negative FCF persists if capex exceeds regulatory recovery timelines", "Severe weather events or grid reliability issues increase unplanned costs", "Political or policy shifts affecting clean energy investment incentives" ], "ticker": "WEC", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady rate base growth, constructive regulatory outcomes, forward EPS ~$6.20 at 19.5x.", "target_price": 122 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Rate case setbacks plus rising rates compress multiples below 18x forward P/E.", "target_price": 105 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Favorable rate cases and accelerated clean energy capex drive EPS above $6.50 at 20.5x.", "target_price": 135 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.06, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.045, "terminal_multiple": 14, "ebit_margin_target": 0.23 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Rate base growth from infrastructure capex programs", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory rate case outcomes across four-state service territory", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment impacting utility valuations and debt costs", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Elevated debt/equity of 1.56x increases financial leverage risk", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Stable 4.4M customer base supports recurring revenue", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Clean energy transition capex opportunities", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Very low EPS YoY growth of 0.2% despite 14% revenue growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Low beta of 0.28 offers defensive positioning in volatile markets", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Utility-focused valuation anchored on forward P/E (18.8x snapshot) and regulated earnings power. Rate base growth of ~4-5% supports mid-single-digit EPS CAGR. 12M price target of $122 implies ~4% price return plus ~3.4% dividend yield = ~7.4% total return, but price-only return within HOLD band. Stock near 52-week high limits margin of safety. EV/EBITDA of 25x is premium; terminal assumption of 14x reflects normalized range. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 117.28, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Regulated utility trading near 52-week high with limited price upside", "Negative FCF reflects heavy capex for future rate base growth", "Forward P/E of 18.8x implies meaningful expected earnings recovery", "Dividend yield of 3.4% provides reasonable income floor", "High PEG ratio signals limited organic growth relative to valuation" ], "target_price_6m": 119.5, "target_price_12m": 122 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 47598, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:08.753Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3546, "outputTokens": 2091, "costUsd": 0.070005 } }, { "id": "cmnr15jhx070pp658tveslbap", "runId": "cmnr15jhv070kp658698ac7qq", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearchModel_v1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"WEC\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 117.28,\n \"target_price_6m\": 112,\n \"target_price_12m\": 110,\n \"recommendation\": \"SELL\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Stable dividend yield supports income investors.\",\n \"Low beta indicates defensive characteristics in downturns.\",\n \"High valuation multiples suggest limited upside potential.\",\n \"Slow earnings growth may not justify current price.\",\n \"Regulatory environment provides stability but caps growth.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory rate approvals\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Energy demand growth\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Operating cost efficiency\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Dividend sustainability\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt levels and cost\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"EPS growth trajectory\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Regulatory delays or disallowances\",\n \"Rising interest rates increasing cost of capital\",\n \"Economic slowdown reducing energy demand\",\n \"Execution risks in capital projects\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.04,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.23,\n \"wacc\": 0.07,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 20\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 100, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Multiple contraction and lower growth.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 110, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Moderate de-rating to historical averages.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 120, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Improved regulatory outcomes and cost savings.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on earnings multiple and growth assumptions; SELL due to overvaluation and limited upside. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "EquityResearchModel_v1", "risks": [ "Regulatory delays or disallowances", "Rising interest rates increasing cost of capital", "Economic slowdown reducing energy demand", "Execution risks in capital projects" ], "ticker": "WEC", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Moderate de-rating to historical averages.", "target_price": 110 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Multiple contraction and lower growth.", "target_price": 100 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Improved regulatory outcomes and cost savings.", "target_price": 120 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.07, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 20, "ebit_margin_target": 0.23 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Regulatory rate approvals", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Energy demand growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating cost efficiency", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend sustainability", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt levels and cost", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "EPS growth trajectory", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on earnings multiple and growth assumptions; SELL due to overvaluation and limited upside. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 117.28, "recommendation": "SELL", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stable dividend yield supports income investors.", "Low beta indicates defensive characteristics in downturns.", "High valuation multiples suggest limited upside potential.", "Slow earnings growth may not justify current price.", "Regulatory environment provides stability but caps growth." ], "target_price_6m": 112, "target_price_12m": 110 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 337, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:08.753Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2065, "outputTokens": 3892, "costUsd": 0.002213 } }, { "id": "cmnr15jhx070np658dlynl35i", "runId": "cmnr15jhv070kp658698ac7qq", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Analyst\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"WEC\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 117.28,\n \"target_price_6m\": 118.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 120.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.8,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Premium valuation at 21.8x P/E limits near-term capital appreciation potential.\",\n \"Reliable 3.4% dividend yield provides downside protection but trails risk-free alternatives.\",\n \"Constructive regulatory environment in Wisconsin supports steady rate base growth.\",\n \"High capital expenditures drive negative FCF, requiring ongoing debt issuance.\",\n \"Defensive profile with 0.28 beta offers stability amid macroeconomic uncertainty.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Allowed ROE in Wisconsin\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Renewable energy transition capex\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Customer growth in service territories\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Natural gas price volatility\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Debt servicing costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Higher-for-longer interest rates compressing utility valuation multiples.\",\n \"Adverse regulatory rulings limiting rate base recovery.\",\n \"Execution risks and cost overruns on large renewable projects.\",\n \"Mild weather negatively impacting seasonal energy demand.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.04,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.23,\n \"wacc\": 0.065,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 18.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 105.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Interest rates rise, compressing multiples and increasing debt costs.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 120.00,\n \"prob\": 0.60,\n \"notes\": \"Steady rate base growth and constructive regulatory outcomes support current valuation.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 132.00,\n \"prob\": 0.15,\n \"notes\": \"Favorable rate case outcomes and falling interest rates drive multiple expansion.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a blend of historical P/E (18x forward) and dividend yield spread analysis. The current 21.8x P/E limits upside, resulting in a HOLD recommendation. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Analyst", "risks": [ "Higher-for-longer interest rates compressing utility valuation multiples.", "Adverse regulatory rulings limiting rate base recovery.", "Execution risks and cost overruns on large renewable projects.", "Mild weather negatively impacting seasonal energy demand." ], "ticker": "WEC", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady rate base growth and constructive regulatory outcomes support current valuation.", "target_price": 120 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Interest rates rise, compressing multiples and increasing debt costs.", "target_price": 105 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.15, "notes": "Favorable rate case outcomes and falling interest rates drive multiple expansion.", "target_price": 132 } }, "confidence": 0.8, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.065, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 18, "ebit_margin_target": 0.23 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Allowed ROE in Wisconsin", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Renewable energy transition capex", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Customer growth in service territories", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Natural gas price volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt servicing costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a blend of historical P/E (18x forward) and dividend yield spread analysis. The current 21.8x P/E limits upside, resulting in a HOLD recommendation. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 117.28, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Premium valuation at 21.8x P/E limits near-term capital appreciation potential.", "Reliable 3.4% dividend yield provides downside protection but trails risk-free alternatives.", "Constructive regulatory environment in Wisconsin supports steady rate base growth.", "High capital expenditures drive negative FCF, requiring ongoing debt issuance.", "Defensive profile with 0.28 beta offers stability amid macroeconomic uncertainty." ], "target_price_6m": 118, "target_price_12m": 120 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 23489, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:08.753Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2420, "outputTokens": 805, "costUsd": 0.0145 } }, { "id": "cmnr15jhx070lp658wqmocdog", "runId": "cmnr15jhv070kp658698ac7qq", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"OpenAI o3\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"WEC\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":117.28,\"target_price_6m\":119.5,\"target_price_12m\":121,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.67,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Constructive regulated utility profile supports steady earnings and dividend growth.\",\"Revenue growth is solid, aided by rate-base expansion and customer investments.\",\"Operating margins are healthy for a regulated utility business.\",\"Valuation looks full near 52-week highs and above typical utility upside.\",\"Leverage, negative FCF, and rate sensitivity cap near-term rerating potential.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Rate-base growth from capex\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Constructive Midwest regulation\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend yield support\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating margin resilience\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"High leverage\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Negative free cash flow\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest-rate sensitivity\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Allowed ROE outcomes\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Adverse rate case decisions\",\"Higher long-term interest rates\",\"Capex overruns or project delays\",\"Weather-driven demand volatility\",\"Financing needs pressure equity value\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":5.5,\"ebit_margin_target\":23.8,\"wacc\":6.7,\"terminal_multiple\":19},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":104,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Higher rates or weaker regulatory outcomes compress valuation and slow EPS growth.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":121,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Steady rate-base growth and normal regulation support modest appreciation.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":132,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Favorable rate outcomes and lower yields allow a premium utility multiple.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended regulated-utility valuation using snapshot fundamentals, margin outlook, dividend support, and a 19x terminal earnings anchor; snapshot quote fields kept authoritative. HOLD fits ~3% 12M price upside with mixed valuation/rate risks; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "OpenAI o3", "risks": [ "Adverse rate case decisions", "Higher long-term interest rates", "Capex overruns or project delays", "Weather-driven demand volatility", "Financing needs pressure equity value" ], "ticker": "WEC", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady rate-base growth and normal regulation support modest appreciation.", "target_price": 121 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Higher rates or weaker regulatory outcomes compress valuation and slow EPS growth.", "target_price": 104 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Favorable rate outcomes and lower yields allow a premium utility multiple.", "target_price": 132 } }, "confidence": 0.67, "assumptions": { "wacc": 6.7, "revenue_cagr_3y": 5.5, "terminal_multiple": 19, "ebit_margin_target": 23.8 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Rate-base growth from capex", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Constructive Midwest regulation", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend yield support", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating margin resilience", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "High leverage", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Negative free cash flow", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Interest-rate sensitivity", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Allowed ROE outcomes", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Blended regulated-utility valuation using snapshot fundamentals, margin outlook, dividend support, and a 19x terminal earnings anchor; snapshot quote fields kept authoritative. HOLD fits ~3% 12M price upside with mixed valuation/rate risks; not investment advice.", "current_price": 117.28, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Constructive regulated utility profile supports steady earnings and dividend growth.", "Revenue growth is solid, aided by rate-base expansion and customer investments.", "Operating margins are healthy for a regulated utility business.", "Valuation looks full near 52-week highs and above typical utility upside.", "Leverage, negative FCF, and rate sensitivity cap near-term rerating potential." ], "target_price_6m": 119.5, "target_price_12m": 121 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0e450a3cdf7c5a8d0069d75ecfafec819797473f6606543f36", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 27062, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:08.753Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2336, "outputTokens": 1539, "costUsd": 0.025634 } }, { "id": "cmnr15jhx070op658gmtj3u22", "runId": "cmnr15jhv070kp658698ac7qq", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Utility DCF Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"WEC\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 117.28,\n \"target_price_6m\": 122,\n \"target_price_12m\": 129,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Regulated utility offers earnings stability and visibility.\",\n \"Rate base growth to drive 5% revenue CAGR over 3 years.\",\n \"3.4% dividend yield supports total shareholder return.\",\n \"Low beta of 0.28 provides defensive characteristics.\",\n \"High debt load increases sensitivity to interest rates.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Rate base expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory rate approvals\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Customer demand growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operational cost management\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Weather and load variability\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Debt financing costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Clean energy transition\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Adverse regulatory rulings on rate cases\",\n \"Rising interest rates increasing cost of capital\",\n \"Extreme weather events raising maintenance costs\",\n \"Delays in capex projects impacting rate base\",\n \"Natural gas price volatility affecting margins\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.23,\n \"wacc\": 0.065,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 18.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 105,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Persistent high rates compress valuation multiples.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 129,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Steady execution on rate base growth plan.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 148,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Favorable regulation accelerates investment returns.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF with 3y explicit forecast using assumptions then terminal EBIT multiple. 10% 12M upside supports BUY. not investment advice. Snapshot baseline used.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "Utility DCF Model", "risks": [ "Adverse regulatory rulings on rate cases", "Rising interest rates increasing cost of capital", "Extreme weather events raising maintenance costs", "Delays in capex projects impacting rate base", "Natural gas price volatility affecting margins" ], "ticker": "WEC", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady execution on rate base growth plan.", "target_price": 129 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Persistent high rates compress valuation multiples.", "target_price": 105 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Favorable regulation accelerates investment returns.", "target_price": 148 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.065, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 18.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.23 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Rate base expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory rate approvals", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Customer demand growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operational cost management", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Weather and load variability", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt financing costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Clean energy transition", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "DCF with 3y explicit forecast using assumptions then terminal EBIT multiple. 10% 12M upside supports BUY. not investment advice. Snapshot baseline used.", "current_price": 117.28, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Regulated utility offers earnings stability and visibility.", "Rate base growth to drive 5% revenue CAGR over 3 years.", "3.4% dividend yield supports total shareholder return.", "Low beta of 0.28 provides defensive characteristics.", "High debt load increases sensitivity to interest rates." ], "target_price_6m": 122, "target_price_12m": 129 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "1e0567b3-946b-91a5-9ceb-0b08cd54d8a5", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 20095, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:08.753Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2677, "outputTokens": 3744, "costUsd": 0.064191 } } ] } }