{ "run": { "id": "cmnr15csb06oep658w9012qcc", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr15crr06oap6584piqel3s", "ticker": "TXN", "snapshotId": "cmnr15cs006ocp658xy7g8wnw", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:00.055Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr15cs006ocp658xy7g8wnw", "assetId": "cmnr15crr06oap6584piqel3s", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "open": 206.645, "price": 208.9, "dayLow": 206.16, "volume": 7454593, "dayHigh": 209.86, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 199.735, "week52Low": 139.95, "week52High": 231.32 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 31.7166361974406, "beta": 1.22775806381186, "epsTTM": 5.47, "fcfTTM": 4262000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.04389312977099228, "revenueYoy": 0.1304903778530785 }, "sector": "Semiconductors & Related Devices", "margins": { "net": 0.2828299966067187, "gross": 0.5702409229725144, "operating": 0.3406288881348264 }, "website": "https://www.ti.com/", "industry": "Semiconductors", "pegRatio": 7.22587711628647, "ebitdaTTM": 7475000000, "forwardPe": 27.192789968652, "marketCap": 188509303179, "totalCash": 3225000000, "totalDebt": 14550000000, "debtEquity": 0.894119092976095, "quickRatio": 2.166508388730611, "revenueTTM": 17682000000, "companyName": "TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC", "priceToBook": 9.69104713328827, "currentRatio": 4.352643241532131, "dividendYield": 0.0316989448671076, "returnOnAssets": 0.1446002602284227, "returnOnEquity": 0.307318871750753, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Texas Instruments Incorporated (TI) is an American multinational semiconductor company headquartered in Dallas, Texas. It is one of the top 10 semiconductor companies worldwide based on sales volume. The company's focus is on developing analog chips and embedded processors, which account for more than 80% of its revenue. TI also produces digital light processing (DLP) technology and education technology products including calculators, microcontrollers, and multi-core processors.", "enterpriseValue": 169027410000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 34000, "sharesOutstanding": 907550774, "enterpriseToEbitda": 22.61236254180602, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 9.55929250084832, "operatingCashflowTTM": 7153000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:00.048Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr15csf06ogp658gq3ds7pm", "runId": "cmnr15csb06oep658w9012qcc", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"TXN\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":208.9,\"target_price_6m\":213,\"target_price_12m\":218,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Analog/embedded leader with durable competitive moat and scale advantages\",\"Revenue recovery underway at 13% YoY but EPS growth lagging at 4.4%\",\"Valuation stretched at 31.7x TTM PE with PEG ratio of 7.2x\",\"Massive multi-year capex cycle pressuring FCF and near-term shareholder returns\",\"Dividend yield of 3.2% provides income support but upside limited by valuation\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Analog semiconductor cycle recovery driving revenue rebound\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"New fab capacity (RFAB2, Sherman) boosting long-term output\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Industrial and automotive end-market demand normalization\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Elevated capex ($5B+/yr) compressing near-term FCF\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Gross margin at 57% still below pre-downturn peaks\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"CHIPS Act subsidies partially offsetting capex burden\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Tariff/trade policy uncertainty impacting global chip demand\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Strong balance sheet with 4.4x current ratio\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Prolonged analog inventory correction delays revenue recovery\",\"Multiple compression if EPS growth fails to accelerate beyond mid-single digits\",\"Trade tensions and tariffs disrupt global semiconductor supply chains\",\"New fab capacity comes online into weak demand environment\",\"Rising debt levels (D/E 0.89) constrain capital return flexibility\",\"Competition from analog peers eroding pricing power\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.08,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.38,\"wacc\":0.095,\"terminal_multiple\":25},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":175,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Multiple compresses to ~24x forward on weak industrial/auto demand and macro slowdown.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":218,\"prob\":0.50,\"notes\":\"Steady cycle recovery with forward EPS ~$8.40 at ~26x PE as capex peaks.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":250,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Strong demand rebound, margin expansion to 38%+ EBIT, re-rate to ~29x forward.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended forward PE and EV/EBIT approach. Forward EPS ~$7.68 implied by snapshot forward PE; modeled ~10% EPS growth to ~$8.45 over 12 months. Applied 26x forward PE for base case. Valuation appears near fair value given PEG of 7.2x and heavy capex cycle limiting FCF. Expected 12M return ~4.4% supports HOLD per rubric. Probability-weighted scenario value ~$215. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Prolonged analog inventory correction delays revenue recovery", "Multiple compression if EPS growth fails to accelerate beyond mid-single digits", "Trade tensions and tariffs disrupt global semiconductor supply chains", "New fab capacity comes online into weak demand environment", "Rising debt levels (D/E 0.89) constrain capital return flexibility", "Competition from analog peers eroding pricing power" ], "ticker": "TXN", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady cycle recovery with forward EPS ~$8.40 at ~26x PE as capex peaks.", "target_price": 218 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Multiple compresses to ~24x forward on weak industrial/auto demand and macro slowdown.", "target_price": 175 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong demand rebound, margin expansion to 38%+ EBIT, re-rate to ~29x forward.", "target_price": 250 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 25, "ebit_margin_target": 0.38 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Analog semiconductor cycle recovery driving revenue rebound", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "New fab capacity (RFAB2, Sherman) boosting long-term output", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Industrial and automotive end-market demand normalization", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Elevated capex ($5B+/yr) compressing near-term FCF", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Gross margin at 57% still below pre-downturn peaks", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "CHIPS Act subsidies partially offsetting capex burden", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Tariff/trade policy uncertainty impacting global chip demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Strong balance sheet with 4.4x current ratio", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Blended forward PE and EV/EBIT approach. Forward EPS ~$7.68 implied by snapshot forward PE; modeled ~10% EPS growth to ~$8.45 over 12 months. Applied 26x forward PE for base case. Valuation appears near fair value given PEG of 7.2x and heavy capex cycle limiting FCF. Expected 12M return ~4.4% supports HOLD per rubric. Probability-weighted scenario value ~$215. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 208.9, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Analog/embedded leader with durable competitive moat and scale advantages", "Revenue recovery underway at 13% YoY but EPS growth lagging at 4.4%", "Valuation stretched at 31.7x TTM PE with PEG ratio of 7.2x", "Massive multi-year capex cycle pressuring FCF and near-term shareholder returns", "Dividend yield of 3.2% provides income support but upside limited by valuation" ], "target_price_6m": 213, "target_price_12m": 218 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 40045, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:00.055Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3621, "outputTokens": 1949, "costUsd": 0.06683 } }, { "id": "cmnr15csf06ojp6581vf1v34g", "runId": "cmnr15csb06oep658w9012qcc", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"TXN\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 208.9,\n \"target_price_6m\": 195.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 190.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"SELL\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Valuation elevated relative to earnings growth.\",\n \"Strong cash flows and margins provide stability.\",\n \"Cyclical semiconductor demand poses near-term risks.\",\n \"Analog chip focus supports long-term growth.\",\n \"Dividend yield enhances total return potential.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Semiconductor cycle downturn\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Automotive and industrial demand\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Margin preservation efforts\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt levels and interest rates\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competitive landscape intensification\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Technological innovation in analog chips\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Geopolitical and trade risks\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Economic recession reducing chip demand\",\n \"Increased competition pressuring margins\",\n \"Supply chain disruptions\",\n \"Regulatory changes affecting operations\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.06,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.34,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 20.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 170.0, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Severe downturn in semiconductor cycle.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 190.0, \"prob\": 0.5, \"notes\": \"Moderate growth with valuation normalization.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 220.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong demand and margin expansion.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF with assumptions; SELL due to high valuation vs. growth. Snapshot data inconsistencies noted. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Economic recession reducing chip demand", "Increased competition pressuring margins", "Supply chain disruptions", "Regulatory changes affecting operations" ], "ticker": "TXN", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate growth with valuation normalization.", "target_price": 190 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Severe downturn in semiconductor cycle.", "target_price": 170 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong demand and margin expansion.", "target_price": 220 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 20, "ebit_margin_target": 0.34 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Semiconductor cycle downturn", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Automotive and industrial demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Margin preservation efforts", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt levels and interest rates", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competitive landscape intensification", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Technological innovation in analog chips", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Geopolitical and trade risks", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF with assumptions; SELL due to high valuation vs. growth. Snapshot data inconsistencies noted. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 208.9, "recommendation": "SELL", "thesis_bullets": [ "Valuation elevated relative to earnings growth.", "Strong cash flows and margins provide stability.", "Cyclical semiconductor demand poses near-term risks.", "Analog chip focus supports long-term growth.", "Dividend yield enhances total return potential." ], "target_price_6m": 195, "target_price_12m": 190 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 425, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:00.055Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2129, "outputTokens": 4576, "costUsd": 0.002518 } }, { "id": "cmnr15csf06ohp65842smhqeh", "runId": "cmnr15csb06oep658w9012qcc", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"TXN_Equity_Valuation_v1.0\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"TXN\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 208.9,\n \"target_price_6m\": 210.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 215.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.7,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Premium valuation reflects business quality but limits near-term multiple expansion upside.\",\n \"Heavy 300mm fab investments pressure near-term FCF but ensure long-term cost leadership.\",\n \"Industrial and automotive end-markets are showing early signs of a cyclical recovery.\",\n \"Strong capital return program is supported by a solid 3.17% dividend yield.\",\n \"Geopolitical resilience is improving by expanding the US-based manufacturing footprint.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Industrial market inventory cycle\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Automotive semiconductor demand\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"300mm fab depreciation costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Capital expenditure intensity\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"CHIPS Act funding and tax credits\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Analog pricing environment\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Dividend growth consistency\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged weakness or delayed recovery in global industrial and automotive end-markets.\",\n \"Margin dilution from high depreciation associated with new fab ramp-ups.\",\n \"Increased competition from Chinese analog chipmakers in lower-end commodity segments.\",\n \"Higher-for-longer interest rates impacting capital-intensive expansion plans.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.08,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.42,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 22.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 175.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Prolonged industrial slump and EV market weakness compress margins amid high depreciation.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 215.0,\n \"prob\": 0.6,\n \"notes\": \"Gradual recovery in industrial/auto markets; capex peaks and FCF begins to normalize.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 245.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Faster than expected auto/industrial rebound and AI edge demand boost embedded processors.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a blend of 28x forward P/E and DCF (8.5% WACC, 22x terminal EV/EBITDA). The HOLD rating reflects limited upside (+2.9%) from the current $208.9 price, balancing cyclical recovery against high capex and depreciation headwinds. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "TXN_Equity_Valuation_v1.0", "risks": [ "Prolonged weakness or delayed recovery in global industrial and automotive end-markets.", "Margin dilution from high depreciation associated with new fab ramp-ups.", "Increased competition from Chinese analog chipmakers in lower-end commodity segments.", "Higher-for-longer interest rates impacting capital-intensive expansion plans." ], "ticker": "TXN", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Gradual recovery in industrial/auto markets; capex peaks and FCF begins to normalize.", "target_price": 215 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Prolonged industrial slump and EV market weakness compress margins amid high depreciation.", "target_price": 175 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Faster than expected auto/industrial rebound and AI edge demand boost embedded processors.", "target_price": 245 } }, "confidence": 0.7, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 22, "ebit_margin_target": 0.42 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Industrial market inventory cycle", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Automotive semiconductor demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "300mm fab depreciation costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Capital expenditure intensity", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "CHIPS Act funding and tax credits", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Analog pricing environment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend growth consistency", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a blend of 28x forward P/E and DCF (8.5% WACC, 22x terminal EV/EBITDA). The HOLD rating reflects limited upside (+2.9%) from the current $208.9 price, balancing cyclical recovery against high capex and depreciation headwinds. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 208.9, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Premium valuation reflects business quality but limits near-term multiple expansion upside.", "Heavy 300mm fab investments pressure near-term FCF but ensure long-term cost leadership.", "Industrial and automotive end-markets are showing early signs of a cyclical recovery.", "Strong capital return program is supported by a solid 3.17% dividend yield.", "Geopolitical resilience is improving by expanding the US-based manufacturing footprint." ], "target_price_6m": 210, "target_price_12m": 215 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 26402, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:00.055Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2498, "outputTokens": 899, "costUsd": 0.015784 } }, { "id": "cmnr15cse06ofp658zabfkn50", "runId": "cmnr15csb06oep658w9012qcc", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"gpt-5\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"TXN\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":208.9,\"target_price_6m\":195,\"target_price_12m\":218,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.66,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Analog and embedded franchise supports durable pricing and long product cycles.\",\"Industrial and auto demand recovery can lift utilization and free cash flow.\",\"Gross margin remains strong, but earnings still below prior cyclical peak.\",\"Valuation already discounts much of a normalization, limiting upside.\",\"Capacity investments strengthen moat but pressure near-term returns on capital.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Industrial analog recovery\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Automotive semiconductor content\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"300mm manufacturing scale\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Utilization and absorption improvement\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Elevated capex and depreciation\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Rich starting valuation\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"China and industrial softness\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend and buyback support\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"End-market recovery slips.\",\"China and customer inventory volatility.\",\"Pricing erosion from competition.\",\"Capex overshoots demand, reducing ROIC.\",\"Macro or auto production slowdown.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":7,\"ebit_margin_target\":35.5,\"wacc\":8.8,\"terminal_multiple\":20},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":170,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Recovery stalls and margins stay pressured by low utilization and depreciation.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":218,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Demand normalizes gradually while margins recover modestly from current levels.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":255,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Industrial and auto rebound faster, driving stronger utilization and earnings leverage.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Base case blends cycle-normalized earnings and EV/EBIT on gradual analog recovery and modest margin normalization. TXN quality is high, but current valuation already reflects much of that, so 12M upside is limited and merits HOLD. Snapshot fields used where provided; no sell-side targets used; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "gpt-5", "risks": [ "End-market recovery slips.", "China and customer inventory volatility.", "Pricing erosion from competition.", "Capex overshoots demand, reducing ROIC.", "Macro or auto production slowdown." ], "ticker": "TXN", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Demand normalizes gradually while margins recover modestly from current levels.", "target_price": 218 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Recovery stalls and margins stay pressured by low utilization and depreciation.", "target_price": 170 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Industrial and auto rebound faster, driving stronger utilization and earnings leverage.", "target_price": 255 } }, "confidence": 0.66, "assumptions": { "wacc": 8.8, "revenue_cagr_3y": 7, "terminal_multiple": 20, "ebit_margin_target": 35.5 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Industrial analog recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Automotive semiconductor content", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "300mm manufacturing scale", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Utilization and absorption improvement", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Elevated capex and depreciation", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Rich starting valuation", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "China and industrial softness", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend and buyback support", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Base case blends cycle-normalized earnings and EV/EBIT on gradual analog recovery and modest margin normalization. TXN quality is high, but current valuation already reflects much of that, so 12M upside is limited and merits HOLD. Snapshot fields used where provided; no sell-side targets used; not investment advice.", "current_price": 208.9, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Analog and embedded franchise supports durable pricing and long product cycles.", "Industrial and auto demand recovery can lift utilization and free cash flow.", "Gross margin remains strong, but earnings still below prior cyclical peak.", "Valuation already discounts much of a normalization, limiting upside.", "Capacity investments strengthen moat but pressure near-term returns on capital." ], "target_price_6m": 195, "target_price_12m": 218 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_01fa3c0cefe065170069d75e26cb5c81939e181e0005fc008d", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 31115, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:00.055Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2401, "outputTokens": 1763, "costUsd": 0.028884 } }, { "id": "cmnr15csf06oip6588rhdqwu8", "runId": "cmnr15csb06oep658w9012qcc", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Fundamental Valuation Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"TXN\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 208.9,\n \"target_price_6m\": 220,\n \"target_price_12m\": 235,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Market leader in analog chips with durable advantages\",\n \"Strong FCF and 3.2% dividend yield support returns\",\n \"13% revenue growth signals cyclical recovery\",\n \"Forward P/E of 27x and PEG over 7x limit upside\",\n \"Cyclical exposure to auto and industrial markets\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Analog chip demand in industrials\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Semiconductor cycle recovery\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operating margin expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Competition from analog peers\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Macroeconomic slowdown risks\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"AI and auto adoption trends\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Geopolitical supply chain issues\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Cyclical downturn in key end markets\",\n \"Intensifying competition eroding pricing\",\n \"Geopolitical supply chain disruptions\",\n \"Higher rates pressuring multiples\",\n \"Slower than expected revenue growth\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.09,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.37,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 24\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 175,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Prolonged recession reduces semiconductor demand sharply.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 235,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Moderate growth aligns with historical averages and margins.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 280,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated AI and industrial demand exceeds expectations.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF valuation using 9% revenue CAGR, 37% EBIT margin, 9% WACC and 24x terminal multiple. Targets reflect modest base-case upside vs current levels. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI Fundamental Valuation Model", "risks": [ "Cyclical downturn in key end markets", "Intensifying competition eroding pricing", "Geopolitical supply chain disruptions", "Higher rates pressuring multiples", "Slower than expected revenue growth" ], "ticker": "TXN", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate growth aligns with historical averages and margins.", "target_price": 235 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Prolonged recession reduces semiconductor demand sharply.", "target_price": 175 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated AI and industrial demand exceeds expectations.", "target_price": 280 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.09, "terminal_multiple": 24, "ebit_margin_target": 0.37 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Analog chip demand in industrials", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Semiconductor cycle recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating margin expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competition from analog peers", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Macroeconomic slowdown risks", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "AI and auto adoption trends", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Geopolitical supply chain issues", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF valuation using 9% revenue CAGR, 37% EBIT margin, 9% WACC and 24x terminal multiple. Targets reflect modest base-case upside vs current levels. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 208.9, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Market leader in analog chips with durable advantages", "Strong FCF and 3.2% dividend yield support returns", "13% revenue growth signals cyclical recovery", "Forward P/E of 27x and PEG over 7x limit upside", "Cyclical exposure to auto and industrial markets" ], "target_price_6m": 220, "target_price_12m": 235 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "87b0ce56-7ea8-95ac-a8ce-1e6adc43c196", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 24605, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:22:00.055Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2736, "outputTokens": 3773, "costUsd": 0.064803 } } ] } }