{ "run": { "id": "cmnr15cc706nmp6589donfdrv", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr15cbr06nip658g0reg1mf", "ticker": "TTWO", "snapshotId": "cmnr15cc006nkp658vnp0e4d0", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:59.476Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr15cc006nkp658vnp0e4d0", "assetId": "cmnr15cbr06nip658g0reg1mf", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "open": 202.82, "price": 202.13, "dayLow": 201.13, "volume": 1646865, "dayHigh": 205.11, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 198.33, "week52Low": 187.63, "week52High": 264.785 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": -8.10203283815481, "beta": 0.756331281881536, "epsTTM": -25.58, "fcfTTM": -307300000, "growth": { "epsYoy": -0.1621990004543388, "revenueYoy": -0.698416642999148 }, "sector": "Services-Prepackaged Software", "margins": { "net": -0.05467922307239553, "gross": 0.5565038257798706, "operating": -0.0227781047675103 }, "website": "https://www.take2games.com/", "industry": "Video games", "pegRatio": -0.499511884503607, "ebitdaTTM": -3948300000, "forwardPe": 114.502762430939, "marketCap": 26579762843, "totalCash": 2160000000, "totalDebt": 3069200000, "debtEquity": 1.71263507508069, "quickRatio": 0.9837438575887753, "revenueTTM": 1699000000, "companyName": "TAKE TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE INC", "priceToBook": 16.975943771343, "currentRatio": 1.136879191519609, "dividendYield": null, "returnOnAssets": -0.009280255731481944, "returnOnEquity": -2.09519577115592, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (sometimes shortened to Take 2 Interactive or T2) is an American video game holding company based in New York City founded by Ryan Brant in September 1993. The company owns three major publishing labels: Rockstar Games, Zynga and 2K, which operate internal game development studios. Take-Two created the Private Division label to support publishing from independent developers, though it sold the label in 2024 to private equity. The company also formed Ghost Story Games which was a former 2K studio under the name Irrational Games. The company acquired the developers Socialpoint, Playdots and Nordeus to establish itself in the mobile game market. The company also owns 50% of professional esports organization NBA 2K League through NBA Take-Two Media. Take-Two's combined portfolio includes franchises such as BioShock, Borderlands, Civilization, Grand Theft A…", "enterpriseValue": 38494475000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 12928, "sharesOutstanding": 185175456, "enterpriseToEbitda": -9.74963275333688, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 22.6571365509123, "operatingCashflowTTM": 388900000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:59.472Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr15cc906nop658q6ox1e8g", "runId": "cmnr15cc706nmp6589donfdrv", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"TTWO\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":202.13,\"target_price_6m\":218,\"target_price_12m\":235,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.57,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"GTA VI launch catalyst should drive massive revenue inflection over next 12 months\",\"TTM financials depressed by impairments and pre-launch revenue trough\",\"Forward PE of 114x implies market expects earnings normalization ahead\",\"Zynga write-downs and mobile headwinds weigh on near-term profitability\",\"Strong franchise portfolio (GTA, NBA 2K, Civilization) provides long-term moat\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"GTA VI post-launch revenue ramp and recurrent consumer spending\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Recovery from TTM revenue trough (-70% YoY)\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating leverage as GTA VI scales and dev costs normalize\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Negative FCF TTM of -$307M limits near-term financial flexibility\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Net debt of ~$900M with debt/equity of 1.7x adds balance sheet risk\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Mobile gaming segment (Zynga) facing engagement and monetization headwinds\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"NBA 2K and Civilization franchises provide stable recurring revenue\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Current gross margin of 55.7% supports long-term margin expansion thesis\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"GTA VI post-launch monetization underperforms expectations or online mode delays\",\"Further Zynga-related impairments or mobile segment deterioration\",\"Regulatory risk on loot boxes or in-game monetization practices\",\"Console cycle transition and platform competition from free-to-play titles\",\"Debt servicing burden if revenue ramp is slower than expected\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.35,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.25,\"wacc\":0.095,\"terminal_multiple\":20},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":165,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"GTA VI recurrent spending disappoints; mobile losses persist; margins remain negative.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":235,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"GTA VI ramp drives revenue to $6-7B run-rate; margins begin normalizing toward mid-teens.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":295,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"GTA VI becomes highest-grossing entertainment product; GTA Online 2 monetization exceeds expectations.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended EV/revenue forward (on normalized GTA VI revenue of ~$7B) and scenario-weighted DCF. TTM financials are distorted by impairments and pre-launch trough; forward PE of 114.5x confirms market pricing recovery. BUY based on ~16% 12M expected return from GTA VI revenue inflection, tempered by moderate confidence due to negative current cash flows and execution risk. Sell-side targets noted but not used as numeric inputs. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "GTA VI post-launch monetization underperforms expectations or online mode delays", "Further Zynga-related impairments or mobile segment deterioration", "Regulatory risk on loot boxes or in-game monetization practices", "Console cycle transition and platform competition from free-to-play titles", "Debt servicing burden if revenue ramp is slower than expected" ], "ticker": "TTWO", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "GTA VI ramp drives revenue to $6-7B run-rate; margins begin normalizing toward mid-teens.", "target_price": 235 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "GTA VI recurrent spending disappoints; mobile losses persist; margins remain negative.", "target_price": 165 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "GTA VI becomes highest-grossing entertainment product; GTA Online 2 monetization exceeds expectations.", "target_price": 295 } }, "confidence": 0.57, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.35, "terminal_multiple": 20, "ebit_margin_target": 0.25 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "GTA VI post-launch revenue ramp and recurrent consumer spending", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Recovery from TTM revenue trough (-70% YoY)", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating leverage as GTA VI scales and dev costs normalize", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Negative FCF TTM of -$307M limits near-term financial flexibility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Net debt of ~$900M with debt/equity of 1.7x adds balance sheet risk", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Mobile gaming segment (Zynga) facing engagement and monetization headwinds", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "NBA 2K and Civilization franchises provide stable recurring revenue", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Current gross margin of 55.7% supports long-term margin expansion thesis", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Blended EV/revenue forward (on normalized GTA VI revenue of ~$7B) and scenario-weighted DCF. TTM financials are distorted by impairments and pre-launch trough; forward PE of 114.5x confirms market pricing recovery. BUY based on ~16% 12M expected return from GTA VI revenue inflection, tempered by moderate confidence due to negative current cash flows and execution risk. Sell-side targets noted but not used as numeric inputs. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 202.13, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "GTA VI launch catalyst should drive massive revenue inflection over next 12 months", "TTM financials depressed by impairments and pre-launch revenue trough", "Forward PE of 114x implies market expects earnings normalization ahead", "Zynga write-downs and mobile headwinds weigh on near-term profitability", "Strong franchise portfolio (GTA, NBA 2K, Civilization) provides long-term moat" ], "target_price_6m": 218, "target_price_12m": 235 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 52367, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:59.476Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3723, "outputTokens": 2332, "costUsd": 0.076915 } }, { "id": "cmnr15cc906nrp658gti7l839", "runId": "cmnr15cc706nmp6589donfdrv", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Model Recommendation\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"TTWO\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 202.13,\n \"target_price_6m\": 210,\n \"target_price_12m\": 220,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong franchise portfolio with GTA driving long-term value.\",\n \"Recent revenue decline from divestiture, but core business solid.\",\n \"Margin improvement potential as costs are optimized post-restructuring.\",\n \"High debt levels pose financial risk in economic downturns.\",\n \"Valuation reasonable given growth prospects and industry position.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Grand Theft Auto VI release\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Mobile gaming growth through Zynga\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Operating margin recovery\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt reduction progress\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Industry competition intensifying\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Economic sensitivity of discretionary spending\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Execution risk on new game launches\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Delays in key game releases\",\n \"Further revenue declines\",\n \"Increased competition in mobile gaming\",\n \"Interest rate hikes affecting debt costs\",\n \"Regulatory changes in gaming industry\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.1,\n \"wacc\": 0.08,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 15\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 180, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Poor execution leads to continued losses and lower valuation.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 220, \"prob\": 0.5, \"notes\": \"Steady recovery with margin improvement and successful game launches.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 260, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong game releases and mobile growth drive above-expectation performance.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on DCF with assumed revenue growth and margin improvement. Expected return ~9% justifies BUY. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation", "risks": [ "Delays in key game releases", "Further revenue declines", "Increased competition in mobile gaming", "Interest rate hikes affecting debt costs", "Regulatory changes in gaming industry" ], "ticker": "TTWO", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady recovery with margin improvement and successful game launches.", "target_price": 220 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Poor execution leads to continued losses and lower valuation.", "target_price": 180 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong game releases and mobile growth drive above-expectation performance.", "target_price": 260 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.08, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 15, "ebit_margin_target": 0.1 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Grand Theft Auto VI release", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Mobile gaming growth through Zynga", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating margin recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt reduction progress", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Industry competition intensifying", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Economic sensitivity of discretionary spending", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Execution risk on new game launches", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on DCF with assumed revenue growth and margin improvement. Expected return ~9% justifies BUY. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 202.13, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong franchise portfolio with GTA driving long-term value.", "Recent revenue decline from divestiture, but core business solid.", "Margin improvement potential as costs are optimized post-restructuring.", "High debt levels pose financial risk in economic downturns.", "Valuation reasonable given growth prospects and industry position." ], "target_price_6m": 210, "target_price_12m": 220 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 352, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:59.476Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2224, "outputTokens": 4297, "costUsd": 0.002427 } }, { "id": "cmnr15cc906npp658dezy9qvs", "runId": "cmnr15cc706nmp6589donfdrv", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Model Recommendation\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"TTWO\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 202.13,\n \"target_price_6m\": 212.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 225.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"GTA VI super-cycle remains the primary catalyst for multi-year bookings growth.\",\n \"Current valuation heavily prices in near-term execution success and pipeline delivery.\",\n \"Zynga integration provides stable mobile cash flows to offset console lumpiness.\",\n \"Negative FCF and high forward PE highlight significant near-term earnings risk.\",\n \"Margin expansion expected as development costs capitalize and digital sales scale.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"GTA VI Release Timing\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Mobile Gaming Bookings\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Development Cost Capitalization\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Recurrent Consumer Spending\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Macro Consumer Discretionary Spend\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"NBA 2K Franchise Performance\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Further delays to the GTA VI release timeline.\",\n \"Underperformance of mobile titles in a saturated market.\",\n \"High valuation multiples leave little room for execution missteps.\",\n \"Rising AAA game development and marketing costs.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.25,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.22,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 18.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 160.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Significant delays in pipeline lead to multiple compression and cash burn.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 225.00,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Successful execution of the GTA VI super-cycle and stable mobile growth.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 270.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Flawless execution with higher-than-expected recurrent consumer spending.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a 3-year DCF and EV/EBITDA multiple, normalizing for the GTA VI super-cycle. The BUY rating reflects ~11% upside to our 12M target, balancing massive franchise potential against current high multiples. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation", "risks": [ "Further delays to the GTA VI release timeline.", "Underperformance of mobile titles in a saturated market.", "High valuation multiples leave little room for execution missteps.", "Rising AAA game development and marketing costs." ], "ticker": "TTWO", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Successful execution of the GTA VI super-cycle and stable mobile growth.", "target_price": 225 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Significant delays in pipeline lead to multiple compression and cash burn.", "target_price": 160 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Flawless execution with higher-than-expected recurrent consumer spending.", "target_price": 270 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.25, "terminal_multiple": 18, "ebit_margin_target": 0.22 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "GTA VI Release Timing", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Mobile Gaming Bookings", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Development Cost Capitalization", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Recurrent Consumer Spending", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macro Consumer Discretionary Spend", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "NBA 2K Franchise Performance", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a 3-year DCF and EV/EBITDA multiple, normalizing for the GTA VI super-cycle. The BUY rating reflects ~11% upside to our 12M target, balancing massive franchise potential against current high multiples. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 202.13, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "GTA VI super-cycle remains the primary catalyst for multi-year bookings growth.", "Current valuation heavily prices in near-term execution success and pipeline delivery.", "Zynga integration provides stable mobile cash flows to offset console lumpiness.", "Negative FCF and high forward PE highlight significant near-term earnings risk.", "Margin expansion expected as development costs capitalize and digital sales scale." ], "target_price_6m": 212, "target_price_12m": 225 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 24444, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:59.476Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2580, "outputTokens": 812, "costUsd": 0.014904 } }, { "id": "cmnr15cc906nnp658lye938wh", "runId": "cmnr15cc706nmp6589donfdrv", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"gpt-5\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"TTWO\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":202.13,\"target_price_6m\":216,\"target_price_12m\":226,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.64,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"GTA VI launch should drive bookings and margin inflection within 12 months.\",\"2K sports, mobile, and catalog provide recurring revenue around tentpole releases.\",\"Cash on hand helps absorb late-cycle development and marketing volatility.\",\"Current losses likely overstate normalized earnings power at cycle peak investment.\",\"Valuation already embeds success, so execution must be tight to realize upside.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"GTA VI launch timing and sell-through\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Live-services retention and recurrent spend\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Zynga/mobile stabilization\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"2K annual sports pipeline\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating leverage after launch\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Development cost inflation\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Marketing and platform fees\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Potential launch delay or quality issues\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"GTA VI delay, reception, or monetization miss.\",\"High valuation could compress if revenue conversion lags.\",\"Mobile and catalog softness could offset flagship strength.\",\"Rising development costs may delay margin recovery.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":18,\"ebit_margin_target\":21,\"wacc\":9.5,\"terminal_multiple\":18},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":175,\"prob\":0.3,\"notes\":\"A delay or weaker monetization keeps margins and sentiment pressured.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":226,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Major release lands broadly on plan and operating leverage starts to show.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":275,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Flagship demand beats expectations and catalog/mobile reaccelerate alongside it.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Target based on normalized post-launch earnings power using EV/EBIT, cross-checked with growth software/game peers. Snapshot quote fields kept exact; some TTM fundamentals appear cycle/accounting distorted, so I rely more on forward assumptions. No sell-side targets used; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "gpt-5", "risks": [ "GTA VI delay, reception, or monetization miss.", "High valuation could compress if revenue conversion lags.", "Mobile and catalog softness could offset flagship strength.", "Rising development costs may delay margin recovery." ], "ticker": "TTWO", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Major release lands broadly on plan and operating leverage starts to show.", "target_price": 226 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "A delay or weaker monetization keeps margins and sentiment pressured.", "target_price": 175 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Flagship demand beats expectations and catalog/mobile reaccelerate alongside it.", "target_price": 275 } }, "confidence": 0.64, "assumptions": { "wacc": 9.5, "revenue_cagr_3y": 18, "terminal_multiple": 18, "ebit_margin_target": 21 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "GTA VI launch timing and sell-through", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Live-services retention and recurrent spend", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Zynga/mobile stabilization", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "2K annual sports pipeline", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating leverage after launch", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Development cost inflation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Marketing and platform fees", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Potential launch delay or quality issues", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Target based on normalized post-launch earnings power using EV/EBIT, cross-checked with growth software/game peers. Snapshot quote fields kept exact; some TTM fundamentals appear cycle/accounting distorted, so I rely more on forward assumptions. No sell-side targets used; not investment advice.", "current_price": 202.13, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "GTA VI launch should drive bookings and margin inflection within 12 months.", "2K sports, mobile, and catalog provide recurring revenue around tentpole releases.", "Cash on hand helps absorb late-cycle development and marketing volatility.", "Current losses likely overstate normalized earnings power at cycle peak investment.", "Valuation already embeds success, so execution must be tight to realize upside." ], "target_price_6m": 216, "target_price_12m": 226 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_09cdeaaee7bee0fd0069d75e1f26908196a41ab8fb5d6882fb", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 49697, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:59.476Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2492, "outputTokens": 2283, "costUsd": 0.036323 } }, { "id": "cmnr15cc906nqp658i4gt1oz4", "runId": "cmnr15cc706nmp6589donfdrv", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"TTWO\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 202.13,\n \"target_price_6m\": 212,\n \"target_price_12m\": 235,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.61,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"GTA VI launch to drive major revenue rebound\",\n \"Zynga mobile segment stabilizing after decline\",\n \"Strong IP pipeline across Rockstar and 2K\",\n \"Negative earnings mask long-term cash potential\",\n \"Valuation reasonable if execution succeeds\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"GTA VI sales performance\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Mobile gaming competition\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"New title release cadence\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"EBIT margin expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Consumer spending slowdown\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Debt burden and FCF\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"IP franchise longevity\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory content risks\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Major game release delays\",\n \"Persistent high development costs\",\n \"Further revenue contraction\",\n \"Goodwill impairment charges\",\n \"Intense industry competition\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.32,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.20,\n \"wacc\": 0.095,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 20\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 155,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"GTA VI underperforms and growth stalls.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 235,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Solid execution on pipeline and margins.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 295,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"GTA VI becomes massive hit.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF anchored on 32% 3Y revenue CAGR, 20% EBIT margin, 9.5% WACC, 20x terminal. 16% base upside supports BUY despite current losses. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Major game release delays", "Persistent high development costs", "Further revenue contraction", "Goodwill impairment charges", "Intense industry competition" ], "ticker": "TTWO", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Solid execution on pipeline and margins.", "target_price": 235 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "GTA VI underperforms and growth stalls.", "target_price": 155 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "GTA VI becomes massive hit.", "target_price": 295 } }, "confidence": 0.61, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.32, "terminal_multiple": 20, "ebit_margin_target": 0.2 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "GTA VI sales performance", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Mobile gaming competition", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "New title release cadence", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "EBIT margin expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Consumer spending slowdown", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt burden and FCF", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "IP franchise longevity", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory content risks", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF anchored on 32% 3Y revenue CAGR, 20% EBIT margin, 9.5% WACC, 20x terminal. 16% base upside supports BUY despite current losses. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 202.13, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "GTA VI launch to drive major revenue rebound", "Zynga mobile segment stabilizing after decline", "Strong IP pipeline across Rockstar and 2K", "Negative earnings mask long-term cash potential", "Valuation reasonable if execution succeeds" ], "target_price_6m": 212, "target_price_12m": 235 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "1e2474aa-cced-9f80-b19c-f95c7b86611c", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 19166, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:59.476Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2833, "outputTokens": 3410, "costUsd": 0.059649 } } ] } }