{ "run": { "id": "cmnr15btu06lop658o6tyqgt6", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr15bt206lkp658dde85i00", "ticker": "TSCO", "snapshotId": "cmnr15bta06lmp6584xmmydfw", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:58.816Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr15bta06lmp6584xmmydfw", "assetId": "cmnr15bt206lkp658dde85i00", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "open": 44.415, "price": 45.28, "dayLow": 44.28, "volume": 6176970, "dayHigh": 45.565, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 43.64, "week52Low": 43.23, "week52High": 63.9899 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 24.8260869565217, "beta": 0.766636779976733, "epsTTM": 2.07, "fcfTTM": 842140000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.009756097560975618, "revenueYoy": 0.04305617510068882 }, "sector": "Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply", "margins": { "net": 0.0706057557417699, "gross": 0.3642418993089817, "operating": 0.09452361839175173 }, "website": null, "industry": null, "pegRatio": 25.4467391304348, "ebitdaTTM": 1659242000, "forwardPe": 23.5733944954128, "marketCap": 22000000000, "totalCash": 194109000, "totalDebt": 150000000, "debtEquity": 0.0581104121074206, "quickRatio": 0.07424470701092276, "revenueTTM": 15524046000, "companyName": "TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/", "priceToBook": 10.5507163386721, "currentRatio": 1.341696472182093, "dividendYield": 0.0179063017475837, "returnOnAssets": 0.1002486903081753, "returnOnEquity": 0.424627115170575, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": null, "enterpriseValue": 27190381230, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": null, "sharesOutstanding": 526351286, "enterpriseToEbitda": 16.38723057275551, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 1.751500944405859, "operatingCashflowTTM": 1635259000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:58.798Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr15btw06lqp658gwnuyqfb", "runId": "cmnr15btu06lop658o6tyqgt6", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"TSCO\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":45.28,\"target_price_6m\":46.3,\"target_price_12m\":47.5,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.52,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Quality rural retailer trading near 52-week low at $45.28\",\"PEG ratio of 25.4 signals growth not supporting current valuation\",\"EPS growth stalled at ~1% YoY despite modest revenue growth\",\"Strong balance sheet with low debt and robust free cash flow\",\"Defensive customer base partially offsets macro spending headwinds\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Same-store sales trajectory and customer traffic trends\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Slowing EPS growth with potential margin compression\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Consumer discretionary spending risk and tariff impact\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Rural lifestyle and pet consumables demand resilience\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Share buyback program supporting per-share earnings\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"New store openings driving incremental revenue\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Input cost inflation squeezing gross margins\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend yield providing floor for shareholder returns\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Consumer recession disproportionately hits discretionary rural spending\",\"Gross margin erosion from tariff-driven input cost inflation\",\"Competitive pressure from big-box and e-commerce channels\",\"Multiple contraction if EPS growth remains sub-2%\",\"Weather volatility impacting seasonal product demand\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.04,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.094,\"wacc\":0.085,\"terminal_multiple\":22.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":39.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Recession drives EPS to ~$1.90 with PE compressing to ~20x.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":47.5,\"prob\":0.50,\"notes\":\"Modest EPS recovery to ~$2.15 with stable ~22x multiple.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":54.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Reacceleration in comps lifts EPS to ~$2.35 with 23x multiple.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Earnings-power valuation anchored on TTM EPS of $2.07, applying forward multiple range 20-23x. Near 52-wk low reflects stalled growth and macro risk; low PEG signals overvaluation relative to growth. Prob-weighted scenario return ~3.2%, consistent with HOLD. Snapshot fields authoritative; external data used only as context. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Consumer recession disproportionately hits discretionary rural spending", "Gross margin erosion from tariff-driven input cost inflation", "Competitive pressure from big-box and e-commerce channels", "Multiple contraction if EPS growth remains sub-2%", "Weather volatility impacting seasonal product demand" ], "ticker": "TSCO", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Modest EPS recovery to ~$2.15 with stable ~22x multiple.", "target_price": 47.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Recession drives EPS to ~$1.90 with PE compressing to ~20x.", "target_price": 39 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Reacceleration in comps lifts EPS to ~$2.35 with 23x multiple.", "target_price": 54 } }, "confidence": 0.52, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 22, "ebit_margin_target": 0.094 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Same-store sales trajectory and customer traffic trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Slowing EPS growth with potential margin compression", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Consumer discretionary spending risk and tariff impact", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Rural lifestyle and pet consumables demand resilience", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Share buyback program supporting per-share earnings", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "New store openings driving incremental revenue", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Input cost inflation squeezing gross margins", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend yield providing floor for shareholder returns", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Earnings-power valuation anchored on TTM EPS of $2.07, applying forward multiple range 20-23x. Near 52-wk low reflects stalled growth and macro risk; low PEG signals overvaluation relative to growth. Prob-weighted scenario return ~3.2%, consistent with HOLD. Snapshot fields authoritative; external data used only as context. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 45.28, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Quality rural retailer trading near 52-week low at $45.28", "PEG ratio of 25.4 signals growth not supporting current valuation", "EPS growth stalled at ~1% YoY despite modest revenue growth", "Strong balance sheet with low debt and robust free cash flow", "Defensive customer base partially offsets macro spending headwinds" ], "target_price_6m": 46.3, "target_price_12m": 47.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [ { "error": "sanity_error: hold_target_too_directional: HOLD requires implied 12M return within +/-6%.; hold_scenario_return_too_directional: HOLD requires probability-weighted scenario return within +/-6%.", "attempt": 0, "rawOutputTruncated": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"TSCO\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":45.28,\"target_price_6m\":47.0,\"target_price_12m\":48.5,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.55,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Quality rural retail franchise trading near 52-week low at $45.28\",\"Extremely high PEG ratio of 25.4 signals growth not supporting valuation\",\"EPS growth stalled at ~1% YoY despite 4.3% revenue growth\",\"Strong balance sheet with minimal debt and robust FCF generation\",\"Mixed outlook: defensive customer base offsets consumer spending headwinds\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Same-store sales trajectory and traffic trends\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Slowing EPS growth with potential margin compression\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Consumer discretionary spending weakness/tariff risk\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Rural lifestyle and pet consumables demand resilience\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Share buyback program supporting per-share metrics\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"New store openings driving incremental revenue\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Input cost i…" } ], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 30298, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:58.816Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 4161, "outputTokens": 1074, "costUsd": 0.047655 } }, { "id": "cmnr15btw06ltp658igrmvr6d", "runId": "cmnr15btu06lop658o6tyqgt6", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"DCF and Comps Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"TSCO\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 45.28,\n \"target_price_6m\": 46.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 47.5,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\"Stable revenue growth in niche retail.\", \"Strong brand loyalty and market position.\", \"High operating margins for retail sector.\", \"Low debt providing financial flexibility.\", \"Valuation full given moderate growth prospects.\"],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Same-store sales growth\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Gross margin expansion\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Operating cost control\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Economic sensitivity\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competition from online retailers\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Seasonal demand fluctuations\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Expansion into new markets\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\"Economic recession impacting spending.\", \"Increased competition from rivals.\", \"Supply chain disruptions.\", \"Regulatory changes affecting operations.\"],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.04,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.095,\n \"wacc\": 0.08,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 20\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 40.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Economic downturn reduces consumer spending.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 47.5, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Steady growth with stable margins.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 55.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong sales and cost efficiencies.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on DCF with 4% revenue growth, 9.5% EBIT margin, 8% WACC, 20x terminal multiple. HOLD due to limited upside vs. risk. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "DCF and Comps Model", "risks": [ "Economic recession impacting spending.", "Increased competition from rivals.", "Supply chain disruptions.", "Regulatory changes affecting operations." ], "ticker": "TSCO", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady growth with stable margins.", "target_price": 47.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Economic downturn reduces consumer spending.", "target_price": 40 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong sales and cost efficiencies.", "target_price": 55 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.08, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 20, "ebit_margin_target": 0.095 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Same-store sales growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Gross margin expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating cost control", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Economic sensitivity", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competition from online retailers", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Seasonal demand fluctuations", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Expansion into new markets", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on DCF with 4% revenue growth, 9.5% EBIT margin, 8% WACC, 20x terminal multiple. HOLD due to limited upside vs. risk. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 45.28, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stable revenue growth in niche retail.", "Strong brand loyalty and market position.", "High operating margins for retail sector.", "Low debt providing financial flexibility.", "Valuation full given moderate growth prospects." ], "target_price_6m": 46, "target_price_12m": 47.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 341, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:58.816Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2041, "outputTokens": 3400, "costUsd": 0.001999 } }, { "id": "cmnr15btw06lrp658kubbl3nb", "runId": "cmnr15btu06lop658o6tyqgt6", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Fundamental_DCF_PE_Blend\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"TSCO\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 45.28,\n \"target_price_6m\": 45.50,\n \"target_price_12m\": 47.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.7,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"High ROE and low debt provide a strong fundamental floor for the business.\",\n \"Sluggish EPS growth of ~1% YoY does not justify the current ~25x P/E multiple.\",\n \"Forward earnings estimates imply slight contraction, limiting near-term upside catalysts.\",\n \"Consistent dividend yield of 1.79% offers modest downside protection for investors.\",\n \"Valuation appears stretched with a PEG ratio over 25x, warranting a neutral stance.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Same-store sales growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Gross margin expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Freight and supply chain costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Rural consumer spending health\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"New store openings\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Wage inflation\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Weather patterns affecting seasonal goods\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged inflation squeezing rural consumer discretionary income.\",\n \"Multiple compression if EPS growth remains stagnant.\",\n \"Increased competition from big-box retailers expanding rural footprints.\",\n \"Unfavorable weather impacting seasonal agricultural and heating sales.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.04,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.095,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 20.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 36.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Consumer spending weakens, driving negative comps and multiple compression to 18x.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 47.00,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Low single-digit growth continues, maintaining current margins and a ~22x multiple.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 55.00,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Rural demand accelerates, driving margin expansion and sustaining the 25x premium multiple.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a blend of historical P/E multiples and DCF. The ~25x P/E is high given ~1% EPS growth, limiting upside to +3.8% (Hold). Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "Fundamental_DCF_PE_Blend", "risks": [ "Prolonged inflation squeezing rural consumer discretionary income.", "Multiple compression if EPS growth remains stagnant.", "Increased competition from big-box retailers expanding rural footprints.", "Unfavorable weather impacting seasonal agricultural and heating sales." ], "ticker": "TSCO", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Low single-digit growth continues, maintaining current margins and a ~22x multiple.", "target_price": 47 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Consumer spending weakens, driving negative comps and multiple compression to 18x.", "target_price": 36 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Rural demand accelerates, driving margin expansion and sustaining the 25x premium multiple.", "target_price": 55 } }, "confidence": 0.7, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 20, "ebit_margin_target": 0.095 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Same-store sales growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Gross margin expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Freight and supply chain costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Rural consumer spending health", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "New store openings", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Wage inflation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Weather patterns affecting seasonal goods", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a blend of historical P/E multiples and DCF. The ~25x P/E is high given ~1% EPS growth, limiting upside to +3.8% (Hold). Not investment advice.", "current_price": 45.28, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "High ROE and low debt provide a strong fundamental floor for the business.", "Sluggish EPS growth of ~1% YoY does not justify the current ~25x P/E multiple.", "Forward earnings estimates imply slight contraction, limiting near-term upside catalysts.", "Consistent dividend yield of 1.79% offers modest downside protection for investors.", "Valuation appears stretched with a PEG ratio over 25x, warranting a neutral stance." ], "target_price_6m": 45.5, "target_price_12m": 47 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 28019, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:58.816Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2399, "outputTokens": 859, "costUsd": 0.015106 } }, { "id": "cmnr15btw06lpp658ocqzfbcr", "runId": "cmnr15btu06lop658o6tyqgt6", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation v2\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"TSCO\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":45.28,\"target_price_6m\":47.2,\"target_price_12m\":49.5,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Defensive rural consumables mix supports steadier traffic.\",\"Margins remain healthy despite slower discretionary demand.\",\"New stores and loyalty initiatives can sustain mid-single-digit growth.\",\"Low leverage supports dividends, buybacks, and flexibility.\",\"Valuation near yearly lows offers modest rerating potential.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Comparable sales stabilization\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Gross margin resilience\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"New store expansion\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Loyalty program monetization\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Consumables sales mix\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Weather-sensitive seasonal demand\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Freight and tariff inflation\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Valuation rerating from lows\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Soft discretionary farm and pet demand.\",\"Weather volatility hurts seasonal categories.\",\"Tariffs or input costs pressure margins.\",\"Competition from mass merchants and e-commerce.\",\"Execution risk on inventory and store growth.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":6,\"ebit_margin_target\":9.8,\"wacc\":8.2,\"terminal_multiple\":23},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":39,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Demand stays soft and margins slip on cost pressure.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":49.5,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Steady traffic, modest margin improvement, and stable multiple.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":58,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Sales reaccelerate and the stock rerates toward premium retail peers.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"12M target uses a blended forward earnings and FCF framework anchored to snapshot fundamentals; snapshot quote fields are authoritative. No sell-side targets used as inputs. BUY fits ~9% 12M upside with moderate uncertainty; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation v2", "risks": [ "Soft discretionary farm and pet demand.", "Weather volatility hurts seasonal categories.", "Tariffs or input costs pressure margins.", "Competition from mass merchants and e-commerce.", "Execution risk on inventory and store growth." ], "ticker": "TSCO", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady traffic, modest margin improvement, and stable multiple.", "target_price": 49.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Demand stays soft and margins slip on cost pressure.", "target_price": 39 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Sales reaccelerate and the stock rerates toward premium retail peers.", "target_price": 58 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 8.2, "revenue_cagr_3y": 6, "terminal_multiple": 23, "ebit_margin_target": 9.8 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Comparable sales stabilization", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Gross margin resilience", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "New store expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Loyalty program monetization", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Consumables sales mix", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Weather-sensitive seasonal demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Freight and tariff inflation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Valuation rerating from lows", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "12M target uses a blended forward earnings and FCF framework anchored to snapshot fundamentals; snapshot quote fields are authoritative. No sell-side targets used as inputs. BUY fits ~9% 12M upside with moderate uncertainty; not investment advice.", "current_price": 45.28, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Defensive rural consumables mix supports steadier traffic.", "Margins remain healthy despite slower discretionary demand.", "New stores and loyalty initiatives can sustain mid-single-digit growth.", "Low leverage supports dividends, buybacks, and flexibility.", "Valuation near yearly lows offers modest rerating potential." ], "target_price_6m": 47.2, "target_price_12m": 49.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0f893df005d68e790069d75e069c948197b9ea834f10a49f78", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 34365, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:58.816Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2311, "outputTokens": 1719, "costUsd": 0.02811 } }, { "id": "cmnr15btw06lsp6580zfqfhln", "runId": "cmnr15btu06lop658o6tyqgt6", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Analyst\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"TSCO\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 45.28,\n \"target_price_6m\": 44.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 47.5,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Stable rural demand but slowing comp sales growth\",\n \"High PE multiple of 25x limits near-term upside\",\n \"Strong ROE and FCF support dividends and buybacks\",\n \"Category expansion offers long-term market share gains\",\n \"Inflation and competition pressure margins and traffic\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Rural consumer spending\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Same-store sales trends\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operating margin expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"New store expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Cost inflation pressures\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Competition from big-box\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Share repurchases\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Weather seasonality\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged rural economic weakness\",\n \"Intensifying competitive pressures\",\n \"Margin erosion from inflation\",\n \"Adverse weather patterns\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 4.5,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 9.8,\n \"wacc\": 7.2,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 16\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 35.0,\n \"prob\": 0.35,\n \"notes\": \"Weak demand and margin compression persist.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 47.5,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Modest growth with stable valuations.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 58.0,\n \"prob\": 0.15,\n \"notes\": \"Sales recovery drives multiple expansion.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF valuation using 4.5% revenue CAGR, 9.8% EBIT margin target, 7.2% WACC and 16x terminal multiple. Mixed growth and valuation signals yield HOLD. not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Analyst", "risks": [ "Prolonged rural economic weakness", "Intensifying competitive pressures", "Margin erosion from inflation", "Adverse weather patterns" ], "ticker": "TSCO", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Modest growth with stable valuations.", "target_price": 47.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.35, "notes": "Weak demand and margin compression persist.", "target_price": 35 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.15, "notes": "Sales recovery drives multiple expansion.", "target_price": 58 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 7.2, "revenue_cagr_3y": 4.5, "terminal_multiple": 16, "ebit_margin_target": 9.8 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Rural consumer spending", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Same-store sales trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operating margin expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "New store expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cost inflation pressures", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competition from big-box", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Share repurchases", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Weather seasonality", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "DCF valuation using 4.5% revenue CAGR, 9.8% EBIT margin target, 7.2% WACC and 16x terminal multiple. Mixed growth and valuation signals yield HOLD. not investment advice.", "current_price": 45.28, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stable rural demand but slowing comp sales growth", "High PE multiple of 25x limits near-term upside", "Strong ROE and FCF support dividends and buybacks", "Category expansion offers long-term market share gains", "Inflation and competition pressure margins and traffic" ], "target_price_6m": 44, "target_price_12m": 47.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "4bfc53ae-e5b1-9423-8b59-1a88d0dbdc9e", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 14627, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:58.816Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2651, "outputTokens": 2972, "costUsd": 0.052533 } } ] } }