{ "run": { "id": "cmnr15b9e06k4p658kajomqm0", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr15b8p06k0p658n0bzom55", "ticker": "TPR", "snapshotId": "cmnr15b8u06k2p65820d36p85", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:58.078Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr15b8u06k2p65820d36p85", "assetId": "cmnr15b8p06k0p658n0bzom55", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "open": 147.08, "price": 150.57, "dayLow": 147.08, "volume": 1945191, "dayHigh": 152.12, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 140.2, "week52Low": 58.39, "week52High": 161.97 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": -5.36324786324786, "beta": 1.54553519422446, "epsTTM": -2.34, "fcfTTM": -258600000, "growth": { "epsYoy": -0.7640449438202248, "revenueYoy": -0.6430598941617813 }, "sector": "Leather & Leather Products", "margins": { "net": 0.2243046675191816, "gross": 0.7546355498721228, "operating": 0.2862851662404092 }, "website": "http://tapestry.com", "industry": "Fashion", "pegRatio": 0.0261105488079172, "ebitdaTTM": 335800000, "forwardPe": 5.75688073394495, "marketCap": 13590000000, "totalCash": 1053300000, "totalDebt": 2396400000, "debtEquity": 1.0101036724653, "quickRatio": 0.8247116392869626, "revenueTTM": 2502400000, "companyName": "TAPESTRY, INC.", "priceToBook": 1.53594710947109, "currentRatio": 1.625771874635908, "dividendYield": 0.0810827043584456, "returnOnAssets": 0.08594395957740009, "returnOnEquity": -0.286461078896503, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Tapestry, Inc. is an American holding company based in New York City which is the parent company of Coach New York and Kate Spade New York. Originally named Coach, Inc., the business changed its name to Tapestry on October 31, 2017.", "enterpriseValue": 4369530000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 19000, "sharesOutstanding": 202464223, "enterpriseToEbitda": 13.01229898749255, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 1.74613570971867, "operatingCashflowTTM": 1193700000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:58.063Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr15b9h06k6p658tc62i5pl", "runId": "cmnr15b9e06k4p658kajomqm0", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"TPR\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":150.57,\"target_price_6m\":161.0,\"target_price_12m\":172.0,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.58,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Forward PE of 5.8x suggests deep undervaluation if earnings normalize\",\"High dividend yield of ~8.1% provides attractive shareholder return floor\",\"Operating margins near 29% reflect strong brand pricing power at Coach/Kate Spade\",\"Revenue decline likely reflects divestiture/restructuring, not organic deterioration\",\"Negative trailing EPS and FCF create near-term uncertainty warranting moderate conviction\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Forward earnings normalization post-restructuring\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Coach brand resilience and direct-to-consumer momentum\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Elevated dividend yield attracting income investors\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Gross margin at 75.5% supporting pricing power thesis\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Negative trailing EPS/FCF raising near-term concern\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Net debt of ~$1.34B and debt/equity of 1.0x adding leverage risk\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Revenue YoY decline of -64% signals structural transition\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Consumer discretionary spending softness in macro backdrop\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Beta of 1.55 amplifies market drawdown exposure\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Sustained negative FCF could pressure dividend sustainability\",\"Consumer spending slowdown compresses luxury/accessible luxury demand\",\"Post-restructuring integration challenges impair margin recovery\",\"Foreign currency headwinds given international revenue exposure\",\"Tariff escalation raises input costs and erodes margin\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.04,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.27,\"wacc\":0.10,\"terminal_multiple\":10.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":115.0,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Earnings normalization fails; dividend cut forces re-rating lower.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":172.0,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Forward earnings materialize near implied ~$26 EPS; multiple re-rates toward 7x.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":210.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Strong Coach/Kate Spade growth, margin expansion, and buybacks drive multiple to 8-9x.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Valuation anchored on forward PE (5.76x) with implied forward EPS ~$26. Base case applies modest multiple expansion to ~6.5-7x reflecting transition uncertainty. Revenue CAGR assumes low-single-digit organic recovery post-restructuring. EV/EBITDA of 13x on depressed EBITDA cross-checked. Snapshot data shows inconsistencies between shares outstanding and market cap vs price, likely reflecting post-corporate-action adjustments; noted but snapshot values preserved. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Sustained negative FCF could pressure dividend sustainability", "Consumer spending slowdown compresses luxury/accessible luxury demand", "Post-restructuring integration challenges impair margin recovery", "Foreign currency headwinds given international revenue exposure", "Tariff escalation raises input costs and erodes margin" ], "ticker": "TPR", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Forward earnings materialize near implied ~$26 EPS; multiple re-rates toward 7x.", "target_price": 172 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Earnings normalization fails; dividend cut forces re-rating lower.", "target_price": 115 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong Coach/Kate Spade growth, margin expansion, and buybacks drive multiple to 8-9x.", "target_price": 210 } }, "confidence": 0.58, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.1, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 10, "ebit_margin_target": 0.27 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Forward earnings normalization post-restructuring", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Coach brand resilience and direct-to-consumer momentum", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Elevated dividend yield attracting income investors", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Gross margin at 75.5% supporting pricing power thesis", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Negative trailing EPS/FCF raising near-term concern", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Net debt of ~$1.34B and debt/equity of 1.0x adding leverage risk", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Revenue YoY decline of -64% signals structural transition", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Consumer discretionary spending softness in macro backdrop", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Beta of 1.55 amplifies market drawdown exposure", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation anchored on forward PE (5.76x) with implied forward EPS ~$26. Base case applies modest multiple expansion to ~6.5-7x reflecting transition uncertainty. Revenue CAGR assumes low-single-digit organic recovery post-restructuring. EV/EBITDA of 13x on depressed EBITDA cross-checked. Snapshot data shows inconsistencies between shares outstanding and market cap vs price, likely reflecting post-corporate-action adjustments; noted but snapshot values preserved. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 150.57, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Forward PE of 5.8x suggests deep undervaluation if earnings normalize", "High dividend yield of ~8.1% provides attractive shareholder return floor", "Operating margins near 29% reflect strong brand pricing power at Coach/Kate Spade", "Revenue decline likely reflects divestiture/restructuring, not organic deterioration", "Negative trailing EPS and FCF create near-term uncertainty warranting moderate conviction" ], "target_price_6m": 161, "target_price_12m": 172 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 45419, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:58.078Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3580, "outputTokens": 2002, "costUsd": 0.06795 } }, { "id": "cmnr15b9h06k9p658iqb0ouwt", "runId": "cmnr15b9e06k4p658kajomqm0", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI_Equity_Research\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"TPR\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 150.57,\n \"target_price_6m\": 155,\n \"target_price_12m\": 165,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Luxury brands with high customer loyalty.\",\n \"Recent revenue decline offers turnaround potential.\",\n \"Operating cash flow remains robust.\",\n \"Debt balanced with strong liquidity.\",\n \"Valuation discounts recovery, offering upside.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Revenue Growth Recovery\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Brand Strength\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Operational Efficiency\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Economic Sensitivity\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competitive Pressure\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt Management\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged revenue decline\",\n \"Increased competition\",\n \"Economic downturn\",\n \"Execution risk\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.28,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 12.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 130, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Revenue decline continues.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 165, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Moderate recovery achieved.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 190, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong growth and expansion.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on DCF with recovery assumptions. BUY for upside potential. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI_Equity_Research", "risks": [ "Prolonged revenue decline", "Increased competition", "Economic downturn", "Execution risk" ], "ticker": "TPR", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Moderate recovery achieved.", "target_price": 165 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Revenue decline continues.", "target_price": 130 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong growth and expansion.", "target_price": 190 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 12, "ebit_margin_target": 0.28 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Revenue Growth Recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Brand Strength", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operational Efficiency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Economic Sensitivity", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competitive Pressure", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt Management", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on DCF with recovery assumptions. BUY for upside potential. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 150.57, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Luxury brands with high customer loyalty.", "Recent revenue decline offers turnaround potential.", "Operating cash flow remains robust.", "Debt balanced with strong liquidity.", "Valuation discounts recovery, offering upside." ], "target_price_6m": 155, "target_price_12m": 165 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [ { "error": "provider_error: terminated", "attempt": 0, "rawOutputTruncated": null } ], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 401, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:58.078Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2098, "outputTokens": 4471, "costUsd": 0.002465 } }, { "id": "cmnr15b9h06k7p6585qzfn3u9", "runId": "cmnr15b9e06k4p658kajomqm0", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearch_v1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"TPR\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 150.57,\n \"target_price_6m\": 158.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 165.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Forward P/E of 5.7x suggests deep value despite recent severe revenue contraction.\",\n \"High 8.1% dividend yield provides strong near-term total return support for investors.\",\n \"Gross margins remain robust at 75%, indicating strong brand pricing power persists.\",\n \"Negative TTM FCF and EPS highlight significant execution risks in the turnaround.\",\n \"Operating cash flow of $1.19B shows underlying cash generation remains viable.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Revenue Stabilization\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Dividend Sustainability\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Margin Compression\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Consumer Discretionary Spending\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Debt Servicing Costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Brand Equity (Coach/Kate Spade)\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged macroeconomic downturn reducing luxury handbag demand.\",\n \"Inability to sustain the 8.1% dividend yield due to negative FCF.\",\n \"Integration or restructuring costs dragging down GAAP earnings.\",\n \"Fashion risk and failure to resonate with younger demographics.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.04,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.25,\n \"wacc\": 0.095,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 8.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 110.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Revenue continues to slide, forcing a dividend cut and multiple compression.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 165.00,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Earnings recover to forward estimates, maintaining the dividend and stabilizing margins.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 210.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Rapid consumer spending rebound drives double-digit growth and multiple expansion.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a blend of forward P/E (8x target) and DCF. The 9.5% upside plus 8.1% yield supports a BUY rating. Note: Snapshot data shows conflicting market cap/price and negative TTM EPS vs high margins; relied on forward estimates and exact snapshot price. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch_v1", "risks": [ "Prolonged macroeconomic downturn reducing luxury handbag demand.", "Inability to sustain the 8.1% dividend yield due to negative FCF.", "Integration or restructuring costs dragging down GAAP earnings.", "Fashion risk and failure to resonate with younger demographics." ], "ticker": "TPR", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Earnings recover to forward estimates, maintaining the dividend and stabilizing margins.", "target_price": 165 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Revenue continues to slide, forcing a dividend cut and multiple compression.", "target_price": 110 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Rapid consumer spending rebound drives double-digit growth and multiple expansion.", "target_price": 210 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 8, "ebit_margin_target": 0.25 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Revenue Stabilization", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend Sustainability", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Margin Compression", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Consumer Discretionary Spending", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt Servicing Costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Brand Equity (Coach/Kate Spade)", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a blend of forward P/E (8x target) and DCF. The 9.5% upside plus 8.1% yield supports a BUY rating. Note: Snapshot data shows conflicting market cap/price and negative TTM EPS vs high margins; relied on forward estimates and exact snapshot price. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 150.57, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Forward P/E of 5.7x suggests deep value despite recent severe revenue contraction.", "High 8.1% dividend yield provides strong near-term total return support for investors.", "Gross margins remain robust at 75%, indicating strong brand pricing power persists.", "Negative TTM FCF and EPS highlight significant execution risks in the turnaround.", "Operating cash flow of $1.19B shows underlying cash generation remains viable." ], "target_price_6m": 158, "target_price_12m": 165 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 24653, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:58.078Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2453, "outputTokens": 841, "costUsd": 0.014998 } }, { "id": "cmnr15b9h06k5p6581bhcr9w7", "runId": "cmnr15b9e06k4p658kajomqm0", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation v2\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"TPR\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":150.57,\"target_price_6m\":146,\"target_price_12m\":154,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.58,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Coach brand resilience offsets softer discretionary demand.\",\"Apparent forward valuation looks inexpensive versus quality brands.\",\"Data conflicts on earnings and cash flow reduce conviction.\",\"High beta and recent rally limit near-term rerating upside.\",\"Dividend and capital returns support a floor, but execution matters.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Coach brand momentum\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Kate Spade turnaround\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Luxury demand normalization\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Gross margin discipline\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Inventory and promotions\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Shareholder returns\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Fundamental data uncertainty\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Balance sheet flexibility\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"US and China demand slowdown\",\"Promotional intensity compresses margins\",\"Snapshot fundamentals may reflect one-offs or data errors\",\"FX, tariffs, and sourcing costs\",\"Brand momentum fades after sharp share rally\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":4,\"ebit_margin_target\":19,\"wacc\":9.5,\"terminal_multiple\":11.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":120,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Demand softens and margin normalization exposes weak cash conversion.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":154,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Brand strength and capital returns offset muted sector growth.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":185,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Coach outperforms and valuation rerates on cleaner earnings.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended earnings-power and EV/EBIT view using snapshot quote plus normalized assumptions. Snapshot fundamentals are internally inconsistent (negative EPS/FCF vs high margins and low forward P/E), so uncertainty is elevated and fair value is near current price. No sell-side targets used; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation v2", "risks": [ "US and China demand slowdown", "Promotional intensity compresses margins", "Snapshot fundamentals may reflect one-offs or data errors", "FX, tariffs, and sourcing costs", "Brand momentum fades after sharp share rally" ], "ticker": "TPR", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Brand strength and capital returns offset muted sector growth.", "target_price": 154 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Demand softens and margin normalization exposes weak cash conversion.", "target_price": 120 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Coach outperforms and valuation rerates on cleaner earnings.", "target_price": 185 } }, "confidence": 0.58, "assumptions": { "wacc": 9.5, "revenue_cagr_3y": 4, "terminal_multiple": 11.5, "ebit_margin_target": 19 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Coach brand momentum", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Kate Spade turnaround", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Luxury demand normalization", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Gross margin discipline", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Inventory and promotions", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Shareholder returns", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fundamental data uncertainty", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Balance sheet flexibility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Blended earnings-power and EV/EBIT view using snapshot quote plus normalized assumptions. Snapshot fundamentals are internally inconsistent (negative EPS/FCF vs high margins and low forward P/E), so uncertainty is elevated and fair value is near current price. No sell-side targets used; not investment advice.", "current_price": 150.57, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Coach brand resilience offsets softer discretionary demand.", "Apparent forward valuation looks inexpensive versus quality brands.", "Data conflicts on earnings and cash flow reduce conviction.", "High beta and recent rally limit near-term rerating upside.", "Dividend and capital returns support a floor, but execution matters." ], "target_price_6m": 146, "target_price_12m": 154 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0936efc700608eb50069d75defa5988197852549e75d5dc421", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 42917, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:58.078Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2368, "outputTokens": 2221, "costUsd": 0.035238 } }, { "id": "cmnr15b9h06k8p658fx0v77r7", "runId": "cmnr15b9e06k4p658kajomqm0", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI DCF Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"TPR\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 150.57,\n \"target_price_6m\": 165,\n \"target_price_12m\": 180,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Luxury demand weakness causes steep revenue and EPS drops.\",\n \"Low forward P/E and 8% yield indicate attractive entry point.\",\n \"Iconic brands provide foundation for long-term market recovery.\",\n \"Negative free cash flow raises concerns over financial health.\",\n \"High beta amplifies risks from macroeconomic volatility.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Luxury market recovery\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Consumer spending trends\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Brand portfolio strength\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operational cost management\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Debt levels and leverage\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Global expansion in Asia\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Competitive landscape\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Dividend payout sustainability\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Further decline in discretionary spending\",\n \"Execution risk on turnaround strategy\",\n \"Supply chain and inflation pressures\",\n \"Intense competition from luxury peers\",\n \"Potential dividend cut if FCF weakens\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.06,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.25,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 11.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 125,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Prolonged slowdown erodes margins and cash flow.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 180,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Moderate recovery supports re-rating to historical multiples.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 230,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated growth from new products and markets.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF valuation with 6% revenue CAGR, 25% EBIT margin target, 8.5% WACC and 11.5x terminal multiple. Cheap forward P/E supports BUY despite mixed fundamentals. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI DCF Model", "risks": [ "Further decline in discretionary spending", "Execution risk on turnaround strategy", "Supply chain and inflation pressures", "Intense competition from luxury peers", "Potential dividend cut if FCF weakens" ], "ticker": "TPR", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate recovery supports re-rating to historical multiples.", "target_price": 180 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Prolonged slowdown erodes margins and cash flow.", "target_price": 125 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated growth from new products and markets.", "target_price": 230 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 11.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.25 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Luxury market recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Consumer spending trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Brand portfolio strength", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operational cost management", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt levels and leverage", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Global expansion in Asia", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive landscape", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend payout sustainability", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "DCF valuation with 6% revenue CAGR, 25% EBIT margin target, 8.5% WACC and 11.5x terminal multiple. Cheap forward P/E supports BUY despite mixed fundamentals. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 150.57, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Luxury demand weakness causes steep revenue and EPS drops.", "Low forward P/E and 8% yield indicate attractive entry point.", "Iconic brands provide foundation for long-term market recovery.", "Negative free cash flow raises concerns over financial health.", "High beta amplifies risks from macroeconomic volatility." ], "target_price_6m": 165, "target_price_12m": 180 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "827a57ba-6c0f-9da0-8647-28541db3cfe0", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 21643, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:58.078Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2707, "outputTokens": 3835, "costUsd": 0.065646 } } ] } }