{ "run": { "id": "cmnr15al506i6p658z1whqksx", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr15ajt06i2p6586nhdgkyp", "ticker": "TKO", "snapshotId": "cmnr15akd06i4p6587yojyj9o", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:57.206Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr15akd06i4p6587yojyj9o", "assetId": "cmnr15ajt06i2p6586nhdgkyp", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "open": 198.6, "price": 197.05, "dayLow": 194.77, "volume": 2313400, "dayHigh": 200.395, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 192.96, "week52Low": 133.07, "week52High": 226.94 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 86.3636363636364, "beta": 0.62558897297824, "epsTTM": 2.42, "fcfTTM": 694562000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 19.16666666666666, "revenueYoy": 0.688507567375009 }, "sector": "Services-Amusement & Recreation Services", "margins": { "net": 0.04126647703526244, "gross": null, "operating": 0.1763439011765411 }, "website": "http://tkogrp.com", "industry": "Experiential hospitality", "pegRatio": 0.0450592885375494, "ebitdaTTM": 940441000, "forwardPe": 34.9498327759197, "marketCap": 13650540272, "totalCash": 831100000, "totalDebt": 3800185000, "debtEquity": 1.01680428085871, "quickRatio": 0.7521680544705583, "revenueTTM": 4735151000, "companyName": "TKO Group Holdings, Inc.", "priceToBook": 1.82603864356186, "currentRatio": 1.260885476809572, "dividendYield": null, "returnOnAssets": 0.01261004499213046, "returnOnEquity": 0.0522834038060342, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) is an American sports and entertainment company. Established on September 12, 2023, the public company was formed by a merger between Endeavor subsidiary Zuffa—the parent company of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), a mixed martial arts promotion—and the professional wrestling promotion World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE).", "enterpriseValue": 19860086710, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 4000, "sharesOutstanding": null, "enterpriseToEbitda": 21.11784440491216, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 4.194182341809163, "operatingCashflowTTM": 1285725000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:57.181Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr15al706i8p6580ju1ny9o", "runId": "cmnr15al506i6p658z1whqksx", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"TKO\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":197.05,\"target_price_6m\":203,\"target_price_12m\":208,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.55,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Dominant positions in UFC and WWE create durable content moats\",\"Netflix Raw deal and UFC media rights underpin long-term revenue visibility\",\"Near-flat revenue growth (0.7% YoY) raises organic growth concerns\",\"Trailing P/E of 86x and EV/EBITDA of 21x reflect premium valuation\",\"High debt load of $3.8B constrains financial flexibility near-term\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Media rights monetization (Netflix, ESPN, Fox)\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Merger synergy realization improving margins\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"International event and distribution expansion\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Near-flat organic revenue growth trajectory\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Premium valuation limits multiple expansion room\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"$3.8B debt burden and interest expense\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Live event attendance and sponsorship trends\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Endeavor controlling stake governance dynamics\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Media rights renewal risk if viewership declines or competitive landscape shifts\",\"Talent concentration risk — key fighter/performer departures affect engagement\",\"Leverage risk — net debt ~$3B with rising rate environment\",\"Regulatory risk in MMA markets could limit UFC expansion\",\"Integration execution risk as WWE and UFC consolidate operations\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.08,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.22,\"wacc\":0.095,\"terminal_multiple\":19},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":160,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Revenue stagnates, multiple compresses to 17x EV/EBITDA on growth concerns.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":208,\"prob\":0.50,\"notes\":\"Mid-single-digit revenue growth, margin expansion to ~20%, multiple holds at ~20x.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":255,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Major media rights upside, EBITDA exceeds $1.1B, multiple expands on scarcity premium.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended EV/EBITDA and forward P/E approach. Forward P/E ~35x implies ~$5.6 forward EPS suggesting significant earnings acceleration, but trailing revenue growth near zero and 86x trailing P/E signal execution dependency. At 20x NTM EBITDA on ~$1.05B EBITDA, EV ~$21B less ~$2.97B net debt = ~$18B equity / ~69M shares ≈ $260 optimistic; discounted for growth risk to $208 base. High uncertainty → HOLD per mixed evidence rubric. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Media rights renewal risk if viewership declines or competitive landscape shifts", "Talent concentration risk — key fighter/performer departures affect engagement", "Leverage risk — net debt ~$3B with rising rate environment", "Regulatory risk in MMA markets could limit UFC expansion", "Integration execution risk as WWE and UFC consolidate operations" ], "ticker": "TKO", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Mid-single-digit revenue growth, margin expansion to ~20%, multiple holds at ~20x.", "target_price": 208 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Revenue stagnates, multiple compresses to 17x EV/EBITDA on growth concerns.", "target_price": 160 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Major media rights upside, EBITDA exceeds $1.1B, multiple expands on scarcity premium.", "target_price": 255 } }, "confidence": 0.55, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 19, "ebit_margin_target": 0.22 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Media rights monetization (Netflix, ESPN, Fox)", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Merger synergy realization improving margins", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "International event and distribution expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Near-flat organic revenue growth trajectory", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Premium valuation limits multiple expansion room", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "$3.8B debt burden and interest expense", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Live event attendance and sponsorship trends", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Endeavor controlling stake governance dynamics", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended EV/EBITDA and forward P/E approach. Forward P/E ~35x implies ~$5.6 forward EPS suggesting significant earnings acceleration, but trailing revenue growth near zero and 86x trailing P/E signal execution dependency. At 20x NTM EBITDA on ~$1.05B EBITDA, EV ~$21B less ~$2.97B net debt = ~$18B equity / ~69M shares ≈ $260 optimistic; discounted for growth risk to $208 base. High uncertainty → HOLD per mixed evidence rubric. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 197.05, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Dominant positions in UFC and WWE create durable content moats", "Netflix Raw deal and UFC media rights underpin long-term revenue visibility", "Near-flat revenue growth (0.7% YoY) raises organic growth concerns", "Trailing P/E of 86x and EV/EBITDA of 21x reflect premium valuation", "High debt load of $3.8B constrains financial flexibility near-term" ], "target_price_6m": 203, "target_price_12m": 208 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 49725, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:57.206Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3588, "outputTokens": 2197, "costUsd": 0.072865 } }, { "id": "cmnr15al706ibp6587j595jwy", "runId": "cmnr15al506i6p658z1whqksx", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"ai_equity_research_v1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"TKO\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 197.05,\n \"target_price_6m\": 210,\n \"target_price_12m\": 220,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Merger synergies driving cost savings.\",\n \"Strong brands with loyal fan bases.\",\n \"Potential for margin expansion.\",\n \"High current multiples may normalize.\",\n \"Leveraged balance sheet increases risk.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\"driver\": \"Revenue growth from media rights\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Post-merger cost synergies\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"EBITDA margin improvement\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Multiple compression risk\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Debt reduction efforts\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Competitive landscape\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Live event attendance recovery\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"}\n ],\n \"risks\": [\"High debt levels\", \"Integration execution risk\", \"Regulatory changes\", \"Economic downturn impact\", \"Key talent dependence\"],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.08,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.18,\n \"wacc\": 0.08,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 18\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\"target_price\": 160, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Multiple compression to 15x with no growth.\"},\n \"base\": {\"target_price\": 217, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Moderate growth and multiple at 18x.\"},\n \"bull\": {\"target_price\": 304, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong growth and multiple expansion to 20x.\"}\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation using DCF with EV/EBITDA exit multiple. BUY due to ~12% upside. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "ai_equity_research_v1", "risks": [ "High debt levels", "Integration execution risk", "Regulatory changes", "Economic downturn impact", "Key talent dependence" ], "ticker": "TKO", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Moderate growth and multiple at 18x.", "target_price": 217 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Multiple compression to 15x with no growth.", "target_price": 160 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong growth and multiple expansion to 20x.", "target_price": 304 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.08, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 18, "ebit_margin_target": 0.18 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Revenue growth from media rights", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Post-merger cost synergies", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "EBITDA margin improvement", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Multiple compression risk", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt reduction efforts", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive landscape", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Live event attendance recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation using DCF with EV/EBITDA exit multiple. BUY due to ~12% upside. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 197.05, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Merger synergies driving cost savings.", "Strong brands with loyal fan bases.", "Potential for margin expansion.", "High current multiples may normalize.", "Leveraged balance sheet increases risk." ], "target_price_6m": 210, "target_price_12m": 220 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 336, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:57.206Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2100, "outputTokens": 5036, "costUsd": 0.002703 } }, { "id": "cmnr15al706i9p658cls0dvvo", "runId": "cmnr15al506i6p658z1whqksx", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"TKO_Equity_Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"TKO\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 197.05,\n \"target_price_6m\": 210.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 225.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.7,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Highly visible revenue streams driven by long-term media rights and sponsorship contracts.\",\n \"WWE Raw's transition to Netflix expands global reach and secures premium pricing.\",\n \"Upcoming UFC domestic media rights renewal presents a significant upside catalyst.\",\n \"Strong free cash flow generation enables rapid deleveraging and potential capital returns.\",\n \"Premium valuation limits multiple expansion, requiring flawless execution to drive upside.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Media rights renewals\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Live event ticket pricing\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Sponsorship integration\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Talent costs and revenue share\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Debt reduction and interest expense\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"International expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Antitrust litigation and fighter compensation lawsuits impacting UFC margins.\",\n \"Dependence on key talent and potential reputational risks.\",\n \"High debt load ($3.8B) in a potentially elevated interest rate environment.\",\n \"Viewer fatigue or declining ratings impacting future media rights negotiations.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.12,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.25,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 18.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 160.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Disappointing UFC rights renewal and rising talent costs compress margins.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 225.00,\n \"prob\": 0.6,\n \"notes\": \"Steady execution on media contracts and moderate sponsorship growth drive FCF.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 260.00,\n \"prob\": 0.15,\n \"notes\": \"Massive UFC rights step-up and accelerated international monetization expand multiples.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a 10-year DCF (8.5% WACC, 18x terminal EV/EBITDA) and sum-of-the-parts analysis. The BUY rating reflects ~14% upside driven by highly contracted media revenues and strong FCF generation, balanced against antitrust litigation risks and a premium starting valuation. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "TKO_Equity_Model", "risks": [ "Antitrust litigation and fighter compensation lawsuits impacting UFC margins.", "Dependence on key talent and potential reputational risks.", "High debt load ($3.8B) in a potentially elevated interest rate environment.", "Viewer fatigue or declining ratings impacting future media rights negotiations." ], "ticker": "TKO", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady execution on media contracts and moderate sponsorship growth drive FCF.", "target_price": 225 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Disappointing UFC rights renewal and rising talent costs compress margins.", "target_price": 160 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.15, "notes": "Massive UFC rights step-up and accelerated international monetization expand multiples.", "target_price": 260 } }, "confidence": 0.7, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.12, "terminal_multiple": 18, "ebit_margin_target": 0.25 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Media rights renewals", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Live event ticket pricing", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Sponsorship integration", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Talent costs and revenue share", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt reduction and interest expense", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "International expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a 10-year DCF (8.5% WACC, 18x terminal EV/EBITDA) and sum-of-the-parts analysis. The BUY rating reflects ~14% upside driven by highly contracted media revenues and strong FCF generation, balanced against antitrust litigation risks and a premium starting valuation. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 197.05, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Highly visible revenue streams driven by long-term media rights and sponsorship contracts.", "WWE Raw's transition to Netflix expands global reach and secures premium pricing.", "Upcoming UFC domestic media rights renewal presents a significant upside catalyst.", "Strong free cash flow generation enables rapid deleveraging and potential capital returns.", "Premium valuation limits multiple expansion, requiring flawless execution to drive upside." ], "target_price_6m": 210, "target_price_12m": 225 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 22977, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:57.206Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2439, "outputTokens": 840, "costUsd": 0.014958 } }, { "id": "cmnr15al706i7p658vvko0t7p", "runId": "cmnr15al506i6p658z1whqksx", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"TKO\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":197.05,\"target_price_6m\":188,\"target_price_12m\":204,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.63,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Scarce live sports rights support resilient pricing and renewals.\",\"UFC and WWE integration should lift margins and free cash flow.\",\"Balance sheet leverage limits flexibility despite solid cash generation.\",\"Post-merger growth comparisons will normalize and may cool sentiment.\",\"Current valuation already prices in substantial rights and synergy upside.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"UFC rights repricing\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"WWE integration synergies\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Live event pricing\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Sponsorship growth\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Leverage reduction\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Valuation multiple compression\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Growth normalization\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Consumer/ad softness\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Media-rights negotiations disappoint.\",\"Injuries or talent issues hit marquee events.\",\"Leverage magnifies execution missteps.\",\"Regulatory or legal issues affect events.\",\"Advertising weakness pressures sponsorship demand.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":8.5,\"ebit_margin_target\":22.5,\"wacc\":9,\"terminal_multiple\":18.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":165,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Rights uplift is modest and the premium multiple compresses.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":204,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Synergies and pricing gains offset slower reported growth normalization.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":240,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Major media renewals re-rate earnings power and cash flow.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended EV/EBITDA and DCF anchored to snapshot fundamentals and stated assumptions; no sell-side targets used. Rich current valuation offsets quality assets and synergy upside, supporting HOLD near fair value. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation", "risks": [ "Media-rights negotiations disappoint.", "Injuries or talent issues hit marquee events.", "Leverage magnifies execution missteps.", "Regulatory or legal issues affect events.", "Advertising weakness pressures sponsorship demand." ], "ticker": "TKO", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Synergies and pricing gains offset slower reported growth normalization.", "target_price": 204 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Rights uplift is modest and the premium multiple compresses.", "target_price": 165 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Major media renewals re-rate earnings power and cash flow.", "target_price": 240 } }, "confidence": 0.63, "assumptions": { "wacc": 9, "revenue_cagr_3y": 8.5, "terminal_multiple": 18.5, "ebit_margin_target": 22.5 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "UFC rights repricing", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "WWE integration synergies", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Live event pricing", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Sponsorship growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Leverage reduction", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Valuation multiple compression", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Growth normalization", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Consumer/ad softness", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended EV/EBITDA and DCF anchored to snapshot fundamentals and stated assumptions; no sell-side targets used. Rich current valuation offsets quality assets and synergy upside, supporting HOLD near fair value. not investment advice", "current_price": 197.05, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Scarce live sports rights support resilient pricing and renewals.", "UFC and WWE integration should lift margins and free cash flow.", "Balance sheet leverage limits flexibility despite solid cash generation.", "Post-merger growth comparisons will normalize and may cool sentiment.", "Current valuation already prices in substantial rights and synergy upside." ], "target_price_6m": 188, "target_price_12m": 204 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_08690265165006610069d75ddc179c8193922eaf8f0b52d2d7", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 42456, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:57.206Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2369, "outputTokens": 2016, "costUsd": 0.03237 } }, { "id": "cmnr15al706iap658iaxomrlf", "runId": "cmnr15al506i6p658z1whqksx", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Fundamental DCF Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"TKO\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 197.05,\n \"target_price_6m\": 215,\n \"target_price_12m\": 230,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.63,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"UFC/WWE brands command premium media rights values\",\n \"Live events and streaming drive robust revenue growth\",\n \"Merger delivers cost synergies and margin expansion\",\n \"International markets present major upside opportunity\",\n \"High debt and talent costs remain key downside risks\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Media rights renewals\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Live event attendance\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Global market expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Merger cost synergies\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Content production costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Debt servicing burden\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory scrutiny\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Economic cyclicality\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Elevated leverage amplifies interest rate exposure\",\n \"Dependence on key talent and personalities\",\n \"Regulatory risks in combat sports\",\n \"Competition from other entertainment platforms\",\n \"Macro slowdown in discretionary spending\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.13,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.24,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 20\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 170,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Missed media deals and margin pressure from costs.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 230,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Steady execution on growth and synergies.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 280,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Faster international growth and new ventures.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF valuation using revenue CAGR, target EBIT margin, WACC and terminal EV/EBITDA. 17% 12M upside with balanced bull/bear drivers supports BUY. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI Fundamental DCF Model", "risks": [ "Elevated leverage amplifies interest rate exposure", "Dependence on key talent and personalities", "Regulatory risks in combat sports", "Competition from other entertainment platforms", "Macro slowdown in discretionary spending" ], "ticker": "TKO", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady execution on growth and synergies.", "target_price": 230 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Missed media deals and margin pressure from costs.", "target_price": 170 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Faster international growth and new ventures.", "target_price": 280 } }, "confidence": 0.63, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.13, "terminal_multiple": 20, "ebit_margin_target": 0.24 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Media rights renewals", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Live event attendance", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Global market expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Merger cost synergies", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Content production costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt servicing burden", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory scrutiny", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Economic cyclicality", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF valuation using revenue CAGR, target EBIT margin, WACC and terminal EV/EBITDA. 17% 12M upside with balanced bull/bear drivers supports BUY. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 197.05, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "UFC/WWE brands command premium media rights values", "Live events and streaming drive robust revenue growth", "Merger delivers cost synergies and margin expansion", "International markets present major upside opportunity", "High debt and talent costs remain key downside risks" ], "target_price_6m": 215, "target_price_12m": 230 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "2b16952a-ba4e-9ff8-9395-58ad23fc5ea3", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 18060, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:57.206Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2710, "outputTokens": 3418, "costUsd": 0.0594 } } ] } }