{ "run": { "id": "cmnr1590g06fup658k02eo5aq", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr1590306fqp658xx2msiei", "ticker": "TDY", "snapshotId": "cmnr1590806fsp658zbbywvzt", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:55.166Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr1590806fsp658zbbywvzt", "assetId": "cmnr1590306fqp658xx2msiei", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "open": 653.55, "price": 660.31, "dayLow": 650.43, "volume": 262621, "dayHigh": 660.98, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 635.07, "week52Low": 419, "week52High": 693.38 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 27.0015690376569, "beta": 0.879079063501313, "epsTTM": 19.12, "fcfTTM": 761100000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.09695926563396451, "revenueYoy": 0.07855379188712522 }, "sector": "Search, Detection, Navigation, Guidance, Aeronautical Sys", "margins": { "net": 0.1918855350842807, "gross": 0.2171697373578989, "operating": 0.2760682085456684 }, "website": "http://www.teledyne.com/", "industry": "Conglomerate", "pegRatio": 2.78483638062935, "ebitdaTTM": 1570900000, "forwardPe": 21.7011349306431, "marketCap": 23800000000, "totalCash": 352400000, "totalDebt": 2925500000, "debtEquity": 0.278250696696754, "quickRatio": 0.7229718832320843, "revenueTTM": 1020400000, "companyName": "TELEDYNE TECHNOLOGIES INC", "priceToBook": 2.29804696639687, "currentRatio": 1.642707381323585, "dividendYield": null, "returnOnAssets": 0.01280969297298712, "returnOnEquity": 0.0851063829787234, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Teledyne Technologies Incorporated is an American industrial conglomerate. It was founded in 1960, as Teledyne, Inc. by Henry Singleton and George Kozmetsky. From August 1996 to November 1999, Teledyne existed as part of the conglomerate Allegheny Teledyne Incorporated – a combination of the former Teledyne, Inc. and the former Allegheny Ludlum Corporation. On November 29, 1999, three separate entities, Teledyne Technologies, Allegheny Technologies, and Water Pik Technologies, were spun off as free-standing public companies. Allegheny Technologies retained several companies of the former Teledyne, Inc. that fit with Allegheny's core business of steel and exotic metals production.", "enterpriseValue": 26734536000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 15800, "sharesOutstanding": 46305311, "enterpriseToEbitda": 17.0186109873321, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 26.20005488043904, "operatingCashflowTTM": 1191300000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:55.161Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr1590i06fwp658i1o2xhsh", "runId": "cmnr1590g06fup658k02eo5aq", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Equity Research Model v1.0\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"TDY\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":660.31,\"target_price_6m\":678,\"target_price_12m\":695,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.6,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Premium defense/instrumentation conglomerate trading near 52-week highs\",\"P/E of 27x and PEG of 2.78 signal rich valuation versus growth\",\"Strong FCF generation of $761M supports ongoing capital deployment\",\"Revenue and EPS growth of ~8-10% YoY are steady but not exceptional\",\"Debt-to-equity at 0.28 provides balance sheet flexibility for M&A\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Defense and government spending tailwinds\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Organic revenue growth in instrumentation segments\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Free cash flow conversion supporting deleveraging and buybacks\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Premium valuation multiple limits further multiple expansion\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"PEG ratio of 2.78 implies earnings growth priced in\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Potential bolt-on M&A adding accretive earnings\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating margins of 27.6% providing earnings leverage\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest rate sensitivity on $2.9B total debt\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Valuation multiple compression if growth decelerates below mid-single digits\",\"Government budget cuts or sequestration reducing defense/space orders\",\"Integration risk from future acquisitions diluting returns\",\"Cyclical downturn in industrial/environmental instrumentation markets\",\"Rising interest costs on $2.9B debt if refinancing at higher rates\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.07,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.275,\"wacc\":0.085,\"terminal_multiple\":24},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":565,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Multiple compresses to 22x on slowing growth and macro weakness.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":695,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Steady 8-10% EPS growth with P/E stabilizing around 25-26x.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":800,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Accelerating growth from defense tailwinds and accretive M&A pushes multiple higher.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended earnings-power and EV/EBITDA approach. TTM EPS of $19.12 growing ~10% to ~$21 in 12M; base case applies ~25x forward P/E post normalization vs current 27x, yielding ~$695. FCF yield of ~3.2% confirms fair-value range. Forward PE of 21.7 may embed optimistic consensus; revenueTTM field in snapshot appears inconsistent with implied revenue from margins/net income (likely partial-year data). Upside is capped by premium multiple and moderate growth, placing stock in HOLD range. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model v1.0", "risks": [ "Valuation multiple compression if growth decelerates below mid-single digits", "Government budget cuts or sequestration reducing defense/space orders", "Integration risk from future acquisitions diluting returns", "Cyclical downturn in industrial/environmental instrumentation markets", "Rising interest costs on $2.9B debt if refinancing at higher rates" ], "ticker": "TDY", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady 8-10% EPS growth with P/E stabilizing around 25-26x.", "target_price": 695 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Multiple compresses to 22x on slowing growth and macro weakness.", "target_price": 565 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Accelerating growth from defense tailwinds and accretive M&A pushes multiple higher.", "target_price": 800 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.07, "terminal_multiple": 24, "ebit_margin_target": 0.275 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Defense and government spending tailwinds", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Organic revenue growth in instrumentation segments", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Free cash flow conversion supporting deleveraging and buybacks", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Premium valuation multiple limits further multiple expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "PEG ratio of 2.78 implies earnings growth priced in", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Potential bolt-on M&A adding accretive earnings", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating margins of 27.6% providing earnings leverage", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate sensitivity on $2.9B total debt", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended earnings-power and EV/EBITDA approach. TTM EPS of $19.12 growing ~10% to ~$21 in 12M; base case applies ~25x forward P/E post normalization vs current 27x, yielding ~$695. FCF yield of ~3.2% confirms fair-value range. Forward PE of 21.7 may embed optimistic consensus; revenueTTM field in snapshot appears inconsistent with implied revenue from margins/net income (likely partial-year data). Upside is capped by premium multiple and moderate growth, placing stock in HOLD range. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 660.31, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Premium defense/instrumentation conglomerate trading near 52-week highs", "P/E of 27x and PEG of 2.78 signal rich valuation versus growth", "Strong FCF generation of $761M supports ongoing capital deployment", "Revenue and EPS growth of ~8-10% YoY are steady but not exceptional", "Debt-to-equity at 0.28 provides balance sheet flexibility for M&A" ], "target_price_6m": 678, "target_price_12m": 695 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 47829, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:55.166Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3707, "outputTokens": 2150, "costUsd": 0.072285 } }, { "id": "cmnr1590i06fzp658qk5tle5w", "runId": "cmnr1590g06fup658k02eo5aq", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"DCF and Relative Valuation Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"TDY\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 660.31,\n \"target_price_6m\": 501.9,\n \"target_price_12m\": 525.8,\n \"recommendation\": \"SELL\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Positive revenue growth in aerospace and defense.\",\n \"Strong operating margins and cash flow generation.\",\n \"High valuation multiples suggest overvaluation risk.\",\n \"Healthy balance sheet with moderate debt levels.\",\n \"Exposure to economic cycles and regulatory changes.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\"driver\": \"Defense budget trends\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Operational efficiency\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"PE multiple levels\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Global economic conditions\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Technological advancements\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"M&A integration success\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Interest rate changes\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"}\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Valuation correction risk.\",\n \"Dependence on government spending.\",\n \"Acquisition integration challenges.\",\n \"Economic downturn impact.\",\n \"Competitive pressures.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.075,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.28,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 25\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\"target_price\": 401.52, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Growth slows and multiples drop sharply.\"},\n \"base\": {\"target_price\": 525.8, \"prob\": 0.5, \"notes\": \"Moderate growth with some multiple compression.\"},\n \"bull\": {\"target_price\": 659.64, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong growth maintains current valuations.\"}\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on forward EPS growth and PE multiples. SELL due to high valuation vs growth. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "DCF and Relative Valuation Model", "risks": [ "Valuation correction risk.", "Dependence on government spending.", "Acquisition integration challenges.", "Economic downturn impact.", "Competitive pressures." ], "ticker": "TDY", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate growth with some multiple compression.", "target_price": 525.8 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Growth slows and multiples drop sharply.", "target_price": 401.52 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong growth maintains current valuations.", "target_price": 659.64 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.075, "terminal_multiple": 25, "ebit_margin_target": 0.28 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Defense budget trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operational efficiency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "PE multiple levels", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Global economic conditions", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Technological advancements", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "M&A integration success", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate changes", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on forward EPS growth and PE multiples. SELL due to high valuation vs growth. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 660.31, "recommendation": "SELL", "thesis_bullets": [ "Positive revenue growth in aerospace and defense.", "Strong operating margins and cash flow generation.", "High valuation multiples suggest overvaluation risk.", "Healthy balance sheet with moderate debt levels.", "Exposure to economic cycles and regulatory changes." ], "target_price_6m": 501.9, "target_price_12m": 525.8 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 355, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:55.166Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2197, "outputTokens": 5271, "costUsd": 0.002829 } }, { "id": "cmnr1590i06fxp6588c2m5spy", "runId": "cmnr1590g06fup658k02eo5aq", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearch_TDY_v1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"TDY\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 660.31,\n \"target_price_6m\": 685.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 715.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.70,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Consistent EPS growth driven by robust aerospace and defense end-market demand.\",\n \"Strong free cash flow generation supports an ongoing accretive M&A strategy.\",\n \"Digital imaging segment provides high-margin recurring revenue and secular growth tailwinds.\",\n \"Valuation at 21.7x forward P/E is reasonable given the defensive earnings profile.\",\n \"Risks include supply chain constraints and potential fluctuations in government defense budgets.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Defense Budget Allocations\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Digital Imaging Demand\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"M&A Integration\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Supply Chain Inflation\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Commercial Aerospace Recovery\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest Rates\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Reductions or delays in US and allied defense spending.\",\n \"Supply chain bottlenecks impacting delivery schedules and margins.\",\n \"Integration risks associated with future large-scale acquisitions.\",\n \"Macroeconomic slowdown affecting commercial industrial markets.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.075,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.28,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 20.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 550.00,\n \"prob\": 0.15,\n \"notes\": \"Defense budget cuts and supply chain disruptions lead to multiple contraction to 18x.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 715.00,\n \"prob\": 0.60,\n \"notes\": \"Steady growth in aerospace and digital imaging maintains margins and a 22x forward P/E.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 800.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Stronger defense spending and highly accretive M&A drive multiple expansion to 25x.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Target price derived from a blended 22x forward P/E and DCF model (8.5% WACC, 20x terminal multiple). Upside of ~8% warrants a BUY rating. Snapshot revenue/EBITDA anomaly noted, but valuation relies on EPS/FCF. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch_TDY_v1", "risks": [ "Reductions or delays in US and allied defense spending.", "Supply chain bottlenecks impacting delivery schedules and margins.", "Integration risks associated with future large-scale acquisitions.", "Macroeconomic slowdown affecting commercial industrial markets." ], "ticker": "TDY", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady growth in aerospace and digital imaging maintains margins and a 22x forward P/E.", "target_price": 715 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.15, "notes": "Defense budget cuts and supply chain disruptions lead to multiple contraction to 18x.", "target_price": 550 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Stronger defense spending and highly accretive M&A drive multiple expansion to 25x.", "target_price": 800 } }, "confidence": 0.7, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.075, "terminal_multiple": 20, "ebit_margin_target": 0.28 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Defense Budget Allocations", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Digital Imaging Demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "M&A Integration", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Supply Chain Inflation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Commercial Aerospace Recovery", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest Rates", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Target price derived from a blended 22x forward P/E and DCF model (8.5% WACC, 20x terminal multiple). Upside of ~8% warrants a BUY rating. Snapshot revenue/EBITDA anomaly noted, but valuation relies on EPS/FCF. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 660.31, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Consistent EPS growth driven by robust aerospace and defense end-market demand.", "Strong free cash flow generation supports an ongoing accretive M&A strategy.", "Digital imaging segment provides high-margin recurring revenue and secular growth tailwinds.", "Valuation at 21.7x forward P/E is reasonable given the defensive earnings profile.", "Risks include supply chain constraints and potential fluctuations in government defense budgets." ], "target_price_6m": 685, "target_price_12m": 715 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 20282, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:55.166Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2550, "outputTokens": 843, "costUsd": 0.015216 } }, { "id": "cmnr1590i06fvp65864xukcvt", "runId": "cmnr1590g06fup658k02eo5aq", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"OpenAI o3\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"TDY\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":660.31,\"target_price_6m\":675,\"target_price_12m\":688,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.61,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Mission-critical sensing and imaging niches support durable pricing power.\",\"Aerospace and defense exposure underpins steadier demand than broad industrial peers.\",\"Strong cash generation enables deleveraging and selective acquisitions.\",\"Premium valuation already reflects much of the quality and growth.\",\"Mixed risk-reward suggests limited 12-month upside without faster growth.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Aerospace & defense demand\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Digital imaging adoption\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Instrumentation replacement cycles\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"FCF-funded M&A\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Margin mix improvement\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Valuation multiple compression\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Budget or order delays\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Debt costs/refinancing\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"US defense or space budget delays\",\"Industrial and lab spending slowdown\",\"Acquisition integration or overpayment\",\"Rich multiple leaves little margin of safety\",\"Cash conversion swings from working capital\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.07,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.29,\"wacc\":0.085,\"terminal_multiple\":22},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":560,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Growth slips and premium multiple compresses toward market.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":688,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"High-single-digit growth and stable margins support roughly current premium.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":790,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Defense, imaging, and M&A execution drive faster EPS compounding.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended valuation using snapshot forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, margins, and FCF quality; base case assumes ~7% 3Y revenue CAGR and 22x normalized earnings. Snapshot revenueTTM appears inconsistent with EV/revenue, so margins/cash flow carried more weight. No sell-side targets used; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "OpenAI o3", "risks": [ "US defense or space budget delays", "Industrial and lab spending slowdown", "Acquisition integration or overpayment", "Rich multiple leaves little margin of safety", "Cash conversion swings from working capital" ], "ticker": "TDY", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "High-single-digit growth and stable margins support roughly current premium.", "target_price": 688 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Growth slips and premium multiple compresses toward market.", "target_price": 560 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Defense, imaging, and M&A execution drive faster EPS compounding.", "target_price": 790 } }, "confidence": 0.61, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.07, "terminal_multiple": 22, "ebit_margin_target": 0.29 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Aerospace & defense demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Digital imaging adoption", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Instrumentation replacement cycles", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "FCF-funded M&A", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Margin mix improvement", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Valuation multiple compression", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Budget or order delays", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt costs/refinancing", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended valuation using snapshot forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, margins, and FCF quality; base case assumes ~7% 3Y revenue CAGR and 22x normalized earnings. Snapshot revenueTTM appears inconsistent with EV/revenue, so margins/cash flow carried more weight. No sell-side targets used; not investment advice.", "current_price": 660.31, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Mission-critical sensing and imaging niches support durable pricing power.", "Aerospace and defense exposure underpins steadier demand than broad industrial peers.", "Strong cash generation enables deleveraging and selective acquisitions.", "Premium valuation already reflects much of the quality and growth.", "Mixed risk-reward suggests limited 12-month upside without faster growth." ], "target_price_6m": 675, "target_price_12m": 688 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_01ff849bc724f6ea0069d75db7bfdc8193b612fbe0781d981e", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 48628, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:55.166Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2469, "outputTokens": 2244, "costUsd": 0.035737 } }, { "id": "cmnr1590i06fyp6586pkrt17e", "runId": "cmnr1590g06fup658k02eo5aq", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Fundamental DCF Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"TDY\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 660.31,\n \"target_price_6m\": 675,\n \"target_price_12m\": 690,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.61,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong niche in defense imaging and instrumentation\",\n \"Consistent FCF supports strategic acquisitions\",\n \"Benefits from aerospace and marine demand\",\n \"Premium valuation with PEG above 2.7 caps upside\",\n \"Debt load adds sensitivity to rate changes\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Rising defense budgets\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Aerospace sector recovery\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Acquisition synergies\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"High entry valuation\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Supply chain cost pressures\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate exposure from debt\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Potential government spending cuts\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Competition in digital tech\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Acquisition integration failures\",\n \"Reduced government contract awards\",\n \"Rising interest expenses on debt\",\n \"Macro slowdown hitting industrial demand\",\n \"Currency volatility in global sales\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.08,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.27,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 21\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 520,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Recession causes margin contraction and lower growth.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 690,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Stable execution aligned with recent trends.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 850,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Stronger defense wins and accretive deals.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"3y DCF using revenue CAGR, target EBIT margin, 8.5% WACC and 21x terminal multiple. Limited upside at current levels supports HOLD. not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "Fundamental DCF Model", "risks": [ "Acquisition integration failures", "Reduced government contract awards", "Rising interest expenses on debt", "Macro slowdown hitting industrial demand", "Currency volatility in global sales" ], "ticker": "TDY", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Stable execution aligned with recent trends.", "target_price": 690 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Recession causes margin contraction and lower growth.", "target_price": 520 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Stronger defense wins and accretive deals.", "target_price": 850 } }, "confidence": 0.61, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 21, "ebit_margin_target": 0.27 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Rising defense budgets", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Aerospace sector recovery", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Acquisition synergies", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "High entry valuation", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Supply chain cost pressures", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Interest rate exposure from debt", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Potential government spending cuts", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competition in digital tech", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "3y DCF using revenue CAGR, target EBIT margin, 8.5% WACC and 21x terminal multiple. 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