{ "run": { "id": "cmnr1572b06b4p658dwf45h2j", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr1572006b0p6583nkdu7vw", "ticker": "STZ", "snapshotId": "cmnr1572506b2p658emouugws", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:52.641Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr1572506b2p658emouugws", "assetId": "cmnr1572006b0p6583nkdu7vw", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "open": 155.14, "price": 150.26, "dayLow": 149.65, "volume": 3991533, "dayHigh": 155.49, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 153.83, "week52Low": 126.45, "week52High": 196.91 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": -390, "beta": 0.769986076605294, "epsTTM": -0.45, "fcfTTM": 3110900000, "growth": { "epsYoy": -1.047770700636943, "revenueYoy": -0.7832963703237229 }, "sector": "Beverages", "margins": { "net": 0.2117587601078167, "gross": 0.4983153638814016, "operating": 0.2914420485175202 }, "website": "http://cbrands.com", "industry": "Beverages", "pegRatio": 3.72218844984802, "ebitdaTTM": 144300000, "forwardPe": 15.287456445993, "marketCap": 38500000000, "totalCash": 152400000, "totalDebt": 10663800000, "debtEquity": 1.67069165940134, "quickRatio": 0.3960519050248482, "revenueTTM": 2374400000, "companyName": "CONSTELLATION BRANDS, INC.", "priceToBook": 4.46390059987666, "currentRatio": 1.338625069022639, "dividendYield": null, "returnOnAssets": 0.02318824538587122, "returnOnEquity": -0.0118279569892473, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Constellation Brands, Inc. is an American producer and marketer of beer, wine, and spirits. A Fortune 500 company, Constellation is the largest beer import company in the US, measured by sales, and has the third-largest market share (7.4 percent) of all major beer suppliers. It also has sizable investments in medical and recreational cannabis through its association with Canopy Growth. Based in Rochester, New York, Constellation has about 40 facilities and approximately 9,000 employees.", "enterpriseValue": 43278638000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 9300, "sharesOutstanding": null, "enterpriseToEbitda": 299.9212612612612, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 18.22718918463612, "operatingCashflowTTM": 2106200000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:52.637Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr1572e06b6p658asiohuq7", "runId": "cmnr1572b06b4p658dwf45h2j", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"STZ\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":150.26,\"target_price_6m\":164,\"target_price_12m\":176,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Post wine/spirits divestiture refocuses STZ on high-margin premium beer\",\"Modelo Especial remains the #1 US beer brand with secular tailwinds\",\"Forward PE of ~15.3x undervalues premium beer compounder versus peers\",\"FCF yield of ~8% supports deleveraging and shareholder returns\",\"Transitional TTM financials mask strong normalized beer-segment economics\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Modelo/Corona volume growth in US Hispanic and mainstream demographics\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Wine & spirits divestiture simplifies portfolio, lifts blended margins\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Tariff risk on Mexican beer imports into the US\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Gross margin expansion from premiumization and pricing power\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Elevated debt load (~$10.7B) limits financial flexibility\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Canopy Growth investment overhang and impairment risk\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"FCF-driven debt reduction improving credit profile\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Consumer trade-down risk amid macro uncertainty\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Share repurchase program supports EPS growth\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"US tariffs on Mexican imports could materially compress beer margins\",\"Consumer spending slowdown reduces premium beer volumes\",\"High leverage amplifies earnings volatility and limits strategic optionality\",\"Further Canopy Growth writedowns impair book value and sentiment\",\"Currency fluctuations (MXN/USD) affect production cost base\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.05,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.34,\"wacc\":0.085,\"terminal_multiple\":16.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":118,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Severe tariffs on Mexican beer crush margins; consumer weakness compounds revenue decline.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":176,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Steady mid-single-digit beer growth, margin expansion, deleveraging; re-rate to ~18x forward EPS.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":215,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Tariff resolution, accelerating Modelo share gains, and aggressive buybacks drive multiple expansion.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Forward-earnings-based valuation anchored on normalized beer-only EPS of ~$9.80 (from snapshot forward PE). Applied 18x target PE (peer-benchmarked: ABI/TAP range) for base 12M target. TTM figures distorted by wine/spirits divestiture and one-time charges, so forward PE used as primary anchor. FCF yield (~8%) cross-checked reasonableness. Key uncertainty is tariff policy on Mexican imports. Confidence moderate due to transitional financials and macro risks. Sell-side targets referenced directionally only, not used as inputs. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "US tariffs on Mexican imports could materially compress beer margins", "Consumer spending slowdown reduces premium beer volumes", "High leverage amplifies earnings volatility and limits strategic optionality", "Further Canopy Growth writedowns impair book value and sentiment", "Currency fluctuations (MXN/USD) affect production cost base" ], "ticker": "STZ", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady mid-single-digit beer growth, margin expansion, deleveraging; re-rate to ~18x forward EPS.", "target_price": 176 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Severe tariffs on Mexican beer crush margins; consumer weakness compounds revenue decline.", "target_price": 118 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Tariff resolution, accelerating Modelo share gains, and aggressive buybacks drive multiple expansion.", "target_price": 215 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 16.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.34 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Modelo/Corona volume growth in US Hispanic and mainstream demographics", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Wine & spirits divestiture simplifies portfolio, lifts blended margins", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Tariff risk on Mexican beer imports into the US", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Gross margin expansion from premiumization and pricing power", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Elevated debt load (~$10.7B) limits financial flexibility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Canopy Growth investment overhang and impairment risk", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "FCF-driven debt reduction improving credit profile", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Consumer trade-down risk amid macro uncertainty", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Share repurchase program supports EPS growth", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Forward-earnings-based valuation anchored on normalized beer-only EPS of ~$9.80 (from snapshot forward PE). Applied 18x target PE (peer-benchmarked: ABI/TAP range) for base 12M target. TTM figures distorted by wine/spirits divestiture and one-time charges, so forward PE used as primary anchor. FCF yield (~8%) cross-checked reasonableness. Key uncertainty is tariff policy on Mexican imports. Confidence moderate due to transitional financials and macro risks. Sell-side targets referenced directionally only, not used as inputs. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 150.26, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Post wine/spirits divestiture refocuses STZ on high-margin premium beer", "Modelo Especial remains the #1 US beer brand with secular tailwinds", "Forward PE of ~15.3x undervalues premium beer compounder versus peers", "FCF yield of ~8% supports deleveraging and shareholder returns", "Transitional TTM financials mask strong normalized beer-segment economics" ], "target_price_6m": 164, "target_price_12m": 176 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 49177, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:52.641Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3611, "outputTokens": 1922, "costUsd": 0.066105 } }, { "id": "cmnr1572e06b9p658tz7irifz", "runId": "cmnr1572b06b4p658dwf45h2j", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI_Equity_Analyst_v1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"STZ\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 150.26,\n \"target_price_6m\": 149,\n \"target_price_12m\": 150,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Leading beer importer with strong brand portfolio in the U.S.\",\n \"High debt burden increasing financial risk and interest expense.\",\n \"Recent declines in revenue and earnings indicating operational headwinds.\",\n \"Robust free cash flow generation supporting liquidity and potential dividends.\",\n \"Cannabis investments provide growth optionality but face regulatory uncertainty.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Beer brand strength\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"High debt leverage\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Declining revenue\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Strong operating margins\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Cannabis investment potential\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Interest rate sensitivity\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Continued revenue decline\",\n \"Debt covenant breaches\",\n \"Cannabis regulatory changes\",\n \"Increased competition\",\n \"Economic downturn affecting consumer spending\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.0,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.25,\n \"wacc\": 0.075,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 15.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 140, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Continued decline in revenue and margins.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 150, \"prob\": 0.5, \"notes\": \"Stabilization with modest recovery.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 160, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Successful turnaround and growth.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation using probability-weighted scenarios based on EV/Sales and forward P/E, with mixed evidence leading to HOLD. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI_Equity_Analyst_v1", "risks": [ "Continued revenue decline", "Debt covenant breaches", "Cannabis regulatory changes", "Increased competition", "Economic downturn affecting consumer spending" ], "ticker": "STZ", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Stabilization with modest recovery.", "target_price": 150 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Continued decline in revenue and margins.", "target_price": 140 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Successful turnaround and growth.", "target_price": 160 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.075, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0, "terminal_multiple": 15, "ebit_margin_target": 0.25 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Beer brand strength", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "High debt leverage", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Declining revenue", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Strong operating margins", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cannabis investment potential", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate sensitivity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation using probability-weighted scenarios based on EV/Sales and forward P/E, with mixed evidence leading to HOLD. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 150.26, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Leading beer importer with strong brand portfolio in the U.S.", "High debt burden increasing financial risk and interest expense.", "Recent declines in revenue and earnings indicating operational headwinds.", "Robust free cash flow generation supporting liquidity and potential dividends.", "Cannabis investments provide growth optionality but face regulatory uncertainty." ], "target_price_6m": 149, "target_price_12m": 150 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [ { "error": "sanity_error: hold_scenario_return_too_directional: HOLD requires probability-weighted scenario return within +/-6%.", "attempt": 0, "rawOutputTruncated": "{\n \"model\": \"AI_Equity_Analyst_v1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"STZ\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 150.26,\n \"target_price_6m\": 148,\n \"target_price_12m\": 142,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Leading beer importer with strong brand portfolio in the U.S.\",\n \"High debt burden increasing financial risk and interest expense.\",\n \"Recent declines in revenue and earnings indicating operational headwinds.\",\n \"Robust free cash flow generation supporting liquidity and potential dividends.\",\n \"Cannabis investments provide growth optionality but face regulatory uncertainty.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Beer brand strength\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"High debt leverage\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Declining revenue\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Strong operating margins\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Cannabis investment potential\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Interest rate sensitivity\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Con…" } ], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 467, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:52.641Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2766, "outputTokens": 3274, "costUsd": 0.00215 } }, { "id": "cmnr1572e06b7p658w282uwo2", "runId": "cmnr1572b06b4p658dwf45h2j", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"STZ\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":150.26,\"target_price_6m\":158.0,\"target_price_12m\":168.0,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.65,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Forward P/E of 15.2x implies significant earnings normalization despite TTM GAAP losses.\",\"Core beer portfolio continues to take US market share driven by Modelo and Corona.\",\"Wine and spirits segment restructuring creates near-term noise but improves long-term margins.\",\"Canopy Growth investments remain a persistent overhang and source of earnings volatility.\",\"Valuation is attractive if management executes on debt reduction and margin recovery.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"US Beer Depletion Volume\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Canopy Growth Equity Earnings\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Input Cost Inflation\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Premiumization Trends\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Debt Paydown and Leverage\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Wine and Spirits Divestitures\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Prolonged weakness in the wine and spirits segment dragging down overall growth.\",\"Further write-downs or cash burn associated with the Canopy Growth stake.\",\"Consumer trade-down in beer due to macroeconomic pressures.\",\"High leverage limits capital return flexibility.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.06,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.31,\"wacc\":0.075,\"terminal_multiple\":16.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":125.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Canopy drag continues, beer volume slows, and margin pressure persists.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":168.0,\"prob\":0.6,\"notes\":\"Beer portfolio remains resilient, margins normalize, and forward EPS is achieved.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":195.0,\"prob\":0.15,\"notes\":\"Accelerated beer share gains, successful premiumization, and rapid debt reduction.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Valuation based on 16.5x applied to forward EPS estimates, reflecting core beer resilience offset by Canopy risks. TTM data anomalies suggest major restructuring impacts; forward P/E of 15.2x anchors our normalized earnings view. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation", "risks": [ "Prolonged weakness in the wine and spirits segment dragging down overall growth.", "Further write-downs or cash burn associated with the Canopy Growth stake.", "Consumer trade-down in beer due to macroeconomic pressures.", "High leverage limits capital return flexibility." ], "ticker": "STZ", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Beer portfolio remains resilient, margins normalize, and forward EPS is achieved.", "target_price": 168 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Canopy drag continues, beer volume slows, and margin pressure persists.", "target_price": 125 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.15, "notes": "Accelerated beer share gains, successful premiumization, and rapid debt reduction.", "target_price": 195 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.075, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 16.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.31 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "US Beer Depletion Volume", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Canopy Growth Equity Earnings", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Input Cost Inflation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Premiumization Trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt Paydown and Leverage", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Wine and Spirits Divestitures", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on 16.5x applied to forward EPS estimates, reflecting core beer resilience offset by Canopy risks. TTM data anomalies suggest major restructuring impacts; forward P/E of 15.2x anchors our normalized earnings view. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 150.26, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Forward P/E of 15.2x implies significant earnings normalization despite TTM GAAP losses.", "Core beer portfolio continues to take US market share driven by Modelo and Corona.", "Wine and spirits segment restructuring creates near-term noise but improves long-term margins.", "Canopy Growth investments remain a persistent overhang and source of earnings volatility.", "Valuation is attractive if management executes on debt reduction and margin recovery." ], "target_price_6m": 158, "target_price_12m": 168 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 36471, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:52.641Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2467, "outputTokens": 555, "costUsd": 0.011594 } }, { "id": "cmnr1572e06b5p658jowy9qpo", "runId": "cmnr1572b06b4p658dwf45h2j", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"OpenAI o3\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"STZ\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":150.26,\"target_price_6m\":156,\"target_price_12m\":158,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.61,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Modelo-led beer franchise supports resilient cash generation despite category headwinds.\",\"Leverage is manageable, but balance sheet limits upside from aggressive buybacks.\",\"Wine and spirits mix shift can stabilize margins yet constrains headline growth.\",\"Tariff, FX, and consumer softness create near-term earnings volatility.\",\"At current valuation, upside looks modest without faster volume recovery.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Mexican beer volume and pricing\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Gross margin recovery\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Deleveraging and buybacks\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Wine and spirits repositioning\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Tariff and trade exposure\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Consumer trade-down risk\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Input cost inflation\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Canopy/accounting noise\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"US tariff action on Mexican imports compresses beer margins.\",\"Beer depletion slowdown from weak consumers reduces pricing power.\",\"Agave, aluminum, and freight inflation offsets productivity gains.\",\"Wine and spirits portfolio changes may underdeliver planned savings.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":4.5,\"ebit_margin_target\":30.5,\"wacc\":7.8,\"terminal_multiple\":12.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":130,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Tariffs and softer depletions pressure margins and cap buybacks.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":158,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Beer pricing and mix offset slower volumes; deleveraging continues.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":182,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Volume rebounds, tariff risk fades, and cash returns accelerate.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"12M target is scenario-weighted from normalized EV/EBIT and FCF-yield cross-checks using the labeled assumptions. Snapshot quote fields are authoritative; some snapshot fundamentals appear distorted versus company scale, so valuation uses normalized assumptions rather than those raw figures. No sell-side targets used; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "OpenAI o3", "risks": [ "US tariff action on Mexican imports compresses beer margins.", "Beer depletion slowdown from weak consumers reduces pricing power.", "Agave, aluminum, and freight inflation offsets productivity gains.", "Wine and spirits portfolio changes may underdeliver planned savings." ], "ticker": "STZ", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Beer pricing and mix offset slower volumes; deleveraging continues.", "target_price": 158 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Tariffs and softer depletions pressure margins and cap buybacks.", "target_price": 130 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Volume rebounds, tariff risk fades, and cash returns accelerate.", "target_price": 182 } }, "confidence": 0.61, "assumptions": { "wacc": 7.8, "revenue_cagr_3y": 4.5, "terminal_multiple": 12.5, "ebit_margin_target": 30.5 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Mexican beer volume and pricing", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Gross margin recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Deleveraging and buybacks", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Wine and spirits repositioning", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Tariff and trade exposure", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Consumer trade-down risk", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Input cost inflation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Canopy/accounting noise", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "12M target is scenario-weighted from normalized EV/EBIT and FCF-yield cross-checks using the labeled assumptions. Snapshot quote fields are authoritative; some snapshot fundamentals appear distorted versus company scale, so valuation uses normalized assumptions rather than those raw figures. No sell-side targets used; not investment advice.", "current_price": 150.26, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Modelo-led beer franchise supports resilient cash generation despite category headwinds.", "Leverage is manageable, but balance sheet limits upside from aggressive buybacks.", "Wine and spirits mix shift can stabilize margins yet constrains headline growth.", "Tariff, FX, and consumer softness create near-term earnings volatility.", "At current valuation, upside looks modest without faster volume recovery." ], "target_price_6m": 156, "target_price_12m": 158 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0c7ace2b7ca4400d0069d75d8976d081959761e72be923fd1f", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 39068, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:52.641Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2397, "outputTokens": 2382, "costUsd": 0.037543 } }, { "id": "cmnr1572e06b8p658jtxjw6uz", "runId": "cmnr1572b06b4p658dwf45h2j", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"STZ\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 150.26,\n \"target_price_6m\": 162,\n \"target_price_12m\": 180,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong beer imports gain US share with Modelo and Corona\",\n \"High FCF generation funds returns despite EPS weakness\",\n \"Canopy cannabis stake adds material upside optionality\",\n \"Negative revenue trends and high debt raise near-term risks\",\n \"15x forward P/E attractive if earnings recover steadily\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"US beer volume and share gains\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Canopy Growth performance and valuation\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Cost optimization and margins\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Debt burden and interest costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Premium beverage consumer trends\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory shifts in alcohol/cannabis\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Economic impact on discretionary spend\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Cannabis investment impairments\",\n \"Beer import competition intensifies\",\n \"Rising rates pressure debt costs\",\n \"Regulatory tightening on beverages\",\n \"Prolonged revenue growth slowdown\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.045,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.32,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 15\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 125,\n \"prob\": 0.35,\n \"notes\": \"Persistent cannabis losses and beer market slowdown.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 180,\n \"prob\": 0.45,\n \"notes\": \"Gradual earnings recovery with stable beer growth.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 220,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Successful Canopy turnaround and strong share gains.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF using 4.5% revenue CAGR, 32% EBIT margin, 9% WACC, 15x terminal multiple. BUY reflects base upside from FCF and beer strength vs cannabis risks. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Cannabis investment impairments", "Beer import competition intensifies", "Rising rates pressure debt costs", "Regulatory tightening on beverages", "Prolonged revenue growth slowdown" ], "ticker": "STZ", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.45, "notes": "Gradual earnings recovery with stable beer growth.", "target_price": 180 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.35, "notes": "Persistent cannabis losses and beer market slowdown.", "target_price": 125 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Successful Canopy turnaround and strong share gains.", "target_price": 220 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.045, "terminal_multiple": 15, "ebit_margin_target": 0.32 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "US beer volume and share gains", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Canopy Growth performance and valuation", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Cost optimization and margins", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt burden and interest costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Premium beverage consumer trends", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory shifts in alcohol/cannabis", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Economic impact on discretionary spend", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF using 4.5% revenue CAGR, 32% EBIT margin, 9% WACC, 15x terminal multiple. BUY reflects base upside from FCF and beer strength vs cannabis risks. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 150.26, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong beer imports gain US share with Modelo and Corona", "High FCF generation funds returns despite EPS weakness", "Canopy cannabis stake adds material upside optionality", "Negative revenue trends and high debt raise near-term risks", "15x forward P/E attractive if earnings recover steadily" ], "target_price_6m": 162, "target_price_12m": 180 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "d9c28fd1-2dae-9e4c-9dbe-3a525cd64453", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 19071, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:52.641Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2734, "outputTokens": 3327, "costUsd": 0.058107 } } ] } }