{ "run": { "id": "cmnr152da063kp658e1yye49z", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr152cj063gp658dcoo76j9", "ticker": "RTX", "snapshotId": "cmnr152cw063ip658i7j8gyqu", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:46.555Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr152cw063ip658i7j8gyqu", "assetId": "cmnr152cj063gp658dcoo76j9", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "open": 198.6, "price": 203.48, "dayLow": 198.42, "volume": 4455777, "dayHigh": 203.8, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 197.92, "week52Low": 112.27, "week52High": 214.5 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 36.5338645418327, "beta": 0.61723235722388, "epsTTM": 5.02, "fcfTTM": 5410000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.4022346368715082, "revenueYoy": 0.09741385716762863 }, "sector": "Aircraft Engines & Engine Parts", "margins": { "net": -0.06218742820789227, "gross": 0.0380476081078693, "operating": -0.03338222559951932 }, "website": "https://www.rtx.com/", "industry": "Aerospace", "pegRatio": 0.908272465692785, "ebitdaTTM": 12717000000, "forwardPe": 26.9309838472834, "marketCap": 195405729090, "totalCash": 7435000000, "totalDebt": 34492000000, "debtEquity": 0.528653536669477, "quickRatio": 0.3893236254763201, "revenueTTM": 56587000000, "companyName": "RTX Corp", "priceToBook": 3.66428490571658, "currentRatio": 1.026333696243876, "dividendYield": 0.0138976531136027, "returnOnAssets": -0.02056944452562851, "returnOnEquity": 0.10318032033106, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "RTX Corporation, formerly Raytheon Technologies Corporation, is an American multinational aerospace and defense conglomerate headquartered in Arlington, Virginia. It is one of the largest aerospace and defense manufacturers in the world by revenue and market capitalization, as well as one of the largest providers of intelligence services. In 2023, the company's seat in the Forbes Global 2000 was 79. RTX manufactures aircraft engines, avionics, aerostructures, cybersecurity solutions, guided missiles, air defense systems, satellites, and drones. The company is a large military contractor, getting much of its revenue from the U.S. government.", "enterpriseValue": 273069760000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 180000, "sharesOutstanding": 1342287676, "enterpriseToEbitda": 21.47281277030746, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 4.825662431300476, "operatingCashflowTTM": 10567000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:46.544Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr152dd063mp6584edtbx54", "runId": "cmnr152da063kp658e1yye49z", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"claude-sonnet-equity-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"RTX\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":203.48,\"target_price_6m\":208,\"target_price_12m\":210,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.60,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Defense backlog provides multi-year revenue visibility and earnings stability\",\"Commercial aerospace recovery supports Pratt & Whitney aftermarket growth\",\"GTF powder metal remediation costs still cloud near-term margin trajectory\",\"Elevated valuation at ~27x forward P/E limits upside vs aerospace peers\",\"Strong FCF generation ($5.4B TTM) underpins deleveraging and shareholder returns\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Global defense spending acceleration across NATO allies\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Commercial aerospace aftermarket revenue recovery\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"GTF engine inspection and remediation cost overhang\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Margin normalization as one-time charges roll off\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Net debt of ~$27B constraining capital deployment flexibility\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Pratt & Whitney GTF fleet return-to-service progress\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"U.S. defense budget trajectory and procurement priorities\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Supply chain normalization aiding production ramp-up\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Stock trading near 52-week high limits margin of safety\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"GTF remediation costs materially exceed current estimates\",\"U.S. or allied defense budget cuts reduce order flow\",\"Commercial aviation demand softens amid macro slowdown\",\"Execution risk on large fixed-price defense contracts\",\"Rising interest rates increase cost of $34.5B debt burden\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.07,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.135,\"wacc\":0.085,\"terminal_multiple\":25},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":180,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"GTF costs escalate, defense budget flattens, multiple compresses to ~22x.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":210,\"prob\":0.50,\"notes\":\"Steady defense growth, gradual margin recovery, forward P/E holds ~26-27x.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":230,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Defense upside, GTF resolution ahead of schedule, margin expansion drives re-rating.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended forward P/E and EV/EBITDA approach anchored on 7% revenue CAGR and 13.5% normalized EBIT margin target. Probability-weighted scenario value ~207.5 (~2% upside) consistent with HOLD. PEG of 0.91 is reasonable but 27x fwd P/E near fair value given mixed margin trajectory. Negative reported GAAP margins reflect one-time charges; normalized earnings power supports current valuation but limited re-rating catalyst. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "claude-sonnet-equity-v1", "risks": [ "GTF remediation costs materially exceed current estimates", "U.S. or allied defense budget cuts reduce order flow", "Commercial aviation demand softens amid macro slowdown", "Execution risk on large fixed-price defense contracts", "Rising interest rates increase cost of $34.5B debt burden" ], "ticker": "RTX", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady defense growth, gradual margin recovery, forward P/E holds ~26-27x.", "target_price": 210 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "GTF costs escalate, defense budget flattens, multiple compresses to ~22x.", "target_price": 180 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Defense upside, GTF resolution ahead of schedule, margin expansion drives re-rating.", "target_price": 230 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.07, "terminal_multiple": 25, "ebit_margin_target": 0.135 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Global defense spending acceleration across NATO allies", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Commercial aerospace aftermarket revenue recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "GTF engine inspection and remediation cost overhang", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Margin normalization as one-time charges roll off", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Net debt of ~$27B constraining capital deployment flexibility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Pratt & Whitney GTF fleet return-to-service progress", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "U.S. defense budget trajectory and procurement priorities", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Supply chain normalization aiding production ramp-up", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Stock trading near 52-week high limits margin of safety", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended forward P/E and EV/EBITDA approach anchored on 7% revenue CAGR and 13.5% normalized EBIT margin target. Probability-weighted scenario value ~207.5 (~2% upside) consistent with HOLD. PEG of 0.91 is reasonable but 27x fwd P/E near fair value given mixed margin trajectory. Negative reported GAAP margins reflect one-time charges; normalized earnings power supports current valuation but limited re-rating catalyst. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 203.48, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Defense backlog provides multi-year revenue visibility and earnings stability", "Commercial aerospace recovery supports Pratt & Whitney aftermarket growth", "GTF powder metal remediation costs still cloud near-term margin trajectory", "Elevated valuation at ~27x forward P/E limits upside vs aerospace peers", "Strong FCF generation ($5.4B TTM) underpins deleveraging and shareholder returns" ], "target_price_6m": 208, "target_price_12m": 210 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [ { "error": "sanity_error: hold_scenario_return_too_directional: HOLD requires probability-weighted scenario return within +/-6%.", "attempt": 0, "rawOutputTruncated": "{\"model\":\"claude-sonnet-equity-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"RTX\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":203.48,\"target_price_6m\":210,\"target_price_12m\":215,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.60,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Defense backlog provides multi-year revenue visibility and earnings stability\",\"Commercial aerospace recovery supports Pratt & Whitney aftermarket growth\",\"GTF powder metal remediation costs still cloud near-term margin trajectory\",\"Elevated valuation at ~27x forward P/E limits upside vs aerospace peers\",\"Strong FCF generation ($5.4B TTM) underpins deleveraging and shareholder returns\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Global defense spending acceleration across NATO allies\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Commercial aerospace aftermarket revenue recovery\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"GTF engine inspection and remediation cost overhang\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Margin normalization as one-time charges roll off\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Net debt of ~$27B constraining capital deployment flexibility\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Pratt & Whitney GTF fleet return-to-service progre…" } ], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 18370, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:46.555Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 4251, "outputTokens": 1078, "costUsd": 0.048205 } }, { "id": "cmnr152dd063pp658jxvrig6n", "runId": "cmnr152da063kp658e1yye49z", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"DCF_Industrial_Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"RTX\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 203.48,\n \"target_price_6m\": 208.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 213.65,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong revenue growth from defense budgets.\",\n \"Margin recovery potential as costs normalize.\",\n \"High valuation multiples limit near-term upside.\",\n \"Cyclical exposure to aerospace downturns.\",\n \"Dividend yield provides downside protection.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Defense spending trends\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Commercial aerospace recovery\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Cost management efficiency\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Geopolitical tensions\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Supply chain disruptions\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt levels and leverage\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Innovation in aerospace tech\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Execution risk on margin improvement.\",\n \"Economic downturn affecting commercial aerospace.\",\n \"Changes in government defense policies.\",\n \"Increased competition.\",\n \"Currency fluctuations.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.08,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.10,\n \"wacc\": 0.07,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 16\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 190.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Margins fail to improve and growth slows.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 213.65, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Steady execution on growth and margin targets.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 240.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong defense spending and commercial recovery.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on DCF with assumed revenue growth and margin recovery. HOLD due to limited upside and mixed evidence. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "DCF_Industrial_Model", "risks": [ "Execution risk on margin improvement.", "Economic downturn affecting commercial aerospace.", "Changes in government defense policies.", "Increased competition.", "Currency fluctuations." ], "ticker": "RTX", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady execution on growth and margin targets.", "target_price": 213.65 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Margins fail to improve and growth slows.", "target_price": 190 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong defense spending and commercial recovery.", "target_price": 240 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.07, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 16, "ebit_margin_target": 0.1 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Defense spending trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Commercial aerospace recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cost management efficiency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Geopolitical tensions", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Supply chain disruptions", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt levels and leverage", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Innovation in aerospace tech", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on DCF with assumed revenue growth and margin recovery. HOLD due to limited upside and mixed evidence. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 203.48, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong revenue growth from defense budgets.", "Margin recovery potential as costs normalize.", "High valuation multiples limit near-term upside.", "Cyclical exposure to aerospace downturns.", "Dividend yield provides downside protection." ], "target_price_6m": 208, "target_price_12m": 213.65 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 357, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:46.555Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2172, "outputTokens": 4305, "costUsd": 0.002416 } }, { "id": "cmnr152dd063np658qpekiblx", "runId": "cmnr152da063kp658e1yye49z", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearch_Base\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"RTX\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 203.48,\n \"target_price_6m\": 205.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 210.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong commercial aerospace aftermarket demand supports Collins and Pratt & Whitney revenue growth.\",\n \"Elevated global defense spending provides a robust backlog for Raytheon missile systems.\",\n \"Valuation is stretched at ~27x forward P/E, pricing in significant near-term execution perfection.\",\n \"Legacy GTF engine recall costs and supply chain constraints remain lingering margin headwinds.\",\n \"Risk/reward is balanced; recommend HOLD until a more attractive entry point materializes.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Commercial air traffic recovery\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Global defense budgets\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"GTF engine fleet management costs\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Supply chain bottlenecks\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Fixed-price defense contract margins\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Share repurchase program\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Raw material inflation\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Further operational or financial fallout from the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine powder metal defect.\",\n \"U.S. defense budget continuing resolutions or cuts impacting Raytheon segment growth.\",\n \"Persistent supply chain and labor shortages delaying deliveries and compressing margins.\",\n \"Multiple compression if commercial aerospace cycle peaks or growth decelerates.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.07,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.12,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 18.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 160.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Multiple compression to 18x and prolonged GTF engine issues drag on margins.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 210.00,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Steady commercial aero recovery and defense backlog execution with multiple at 24x.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 245.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Margin expansion post-GTF charges and strong defense orders keep multiple elevated at 27x.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a 10-year DCF and 24x forward P/E multiple. The HOLD rating reflects a balanced risk/reward profile with limited upside to our $210 12M target (+3.2%) given the recent stock run-up and stretched valuation. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch_Base", "risks": [ "Further operational or financial fallout from the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine powder metal defect.", "U.S. defense budget continuing resolutions or cuts impacting Raytheon segment growth.", "Persistent supply chain and labor shortages delaying deliveries and compressing margins.", "Multiple compression if commercial aerospace cycle peaks or growth decelerates." ], "ticker": "RTX", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady commercial aero recovery and defense backlog execution with multiple at 24x.", "target_price": 210 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Multiple compression to 18x and prolonged GTF engine issues drag on margins.", "target_price": 160 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Margin expansion post-GTF charges and strong defense orders keep multiple elevated at 27x.", "target_price": 245 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.07, "terminal_multiple": 18, "ebit_margin_target": 0.12 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Commercial air traffic recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Global defense budgets", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "GTF engine fleet management costs", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Supply chain bottlenecks", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Fixed-price defense contract margins", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Share repurchase program", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Raw material inflation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a 10-year DCF and 24x forward P/E multiple. The HOLD rating reflects a balanced risk/reward profile with limited upside to our $210 12M target (+3.2%) given the recent stock run-up and stretched valuation. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 203.48, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong commercial aerospace aftermarket demand supports Collins and Pratt & Whitney revenue growth.", "Elevated global defense spending provides a robust backlog for Raytheon missile systems.", "Valuation is stretched at ~27x forward P/E, pricing in significant near-term execution perfection.", "Legacy GTF engine recall costs and supply chain constraints remain lingering margin headwinds.", "Risk/reward is balanced; recommend HOLD until a more attractive entry point materializes." ], "target_price_6m": 205, "target_price_12m": 210 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 23728, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:46.555Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2539, "outputTokens": 896, "costUsd": 0.01583 } }, { "id": "cmnr152dd063lp65821mf3ylx", "runId": "cmnr152da063kp658e1yye49z", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"OpenAI o3\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"RTX\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":203.48,\"target_price_6m\":208,\"target_price_12m\":212,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Defense backlog and missile demand support resilient multi-year revenue.\",\"Aftermarket recovery should lift Collins and Pratt mix, margins, and cash.\",\"GTF inspections remain a timing drag on engines, cash conversion, and sentiment.\",\"Current valuation already prices in a sizable portion of operational recovery.\",\"Risk-reward looks balanced, with fair value only modestly above spot.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Defense bookings and replenishment\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Commercial aftermarket growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Pratt GTF remediation costs\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Free-cash-flow conversion\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Margin recovery and productivity\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Supply-chain and labor friction\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"U.S. and allied defense budgets\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Valuation multiple compression\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Longer GTF remediation or customer compensation\",\"U.S. budget delays or program cuts\",\"Supply-chain shortages delay deliveries\",\"Higher rates compress aerospace-defense multiples\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.07,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.145,\"wacc\":0.085,\"terminal_multiple\":16.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":175,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"GTF disruption lasts longer and the multiple derates.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":212,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Defense and aftermarket offset lingering Pratt costs.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":245,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Pratt issues ease faster and cash conversion beats.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"12M target uses normalized earnings/FCF and multiple cross-checks; HOLD fits ~4% implied upside with mixed execution risk. Snapshot quote fields were used as provided; snapshot market cap, EV and shares appear internally inconsistent, so valuation leaned on per-share multiples and cash flow. No sell-side targets used; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "OpenAI o3", "risks": [ "Longer GTF remediation or customer compensation", "U.S. budget delays or program cuts", "Supply-chain shortages delay deliveries", "Higher rates compress aerospace-defense multiples" ], "ticker": "RTX", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Defense and aftermarket offset lingering Pratt costs.", "target_price": 212 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "GTF disruption lasts longer and the multiple derates.", "target_price": 175 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Pratt issues ease faster and cash conversion beats.", "target_price": 245 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.07, "terminal_multiple": 16.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.145 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Defense bookings and replenishment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Commercial aftermarket growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Pratt GTF remediation costs", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Free-cash-flow conversion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Margin recovery and productivity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Supply-chain and labor friction", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "U.S. and allied defense budgets", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Valuation multiple compression", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "12M target uses normalized earnings/FCF and multiple cross-checks; HOLD fits ~4% implied upside with mixed execution risk. Snapshot quote fields were used as provided; snapshot market cap, EV and shares appear internally inconsistent, so valuation leaned on per-share multiples and cash flow. No sell-side targets used; not investment advice.", "current_price": 203.48, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Defense backlog and missile demand support resilient multi-year revenue.", "Aftermarket recovery should lift Collins and Pratt mix, margins, and cash.", "GTF inspections remain a timing drag on engines, cash conversion, and sentiment.", "Current valuation already prices in a sizable portion of operational recovery.", "Risk-reward looks balanced, with fair value only modestly above spot." ], "target_price_6m": 208, "target_price_12m": 212 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_04f1ec3fd75dd6100069d75d245e1481948373a47addd5ffa0", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 44228, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:46.555Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2435, "outputTokens": 2590, "costUsd": 0.040521 } }, { "id": "cmnr152dd063op658z84flg47", "runId": "cmnr152da063kp658e1yye49z", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Aerospace DCF Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"RTX\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 203.48,\n \"target_price_6m\": 207,\n \"target_price_12m\": 214,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong defense backlog provides revenue visibility\",\n \"Commercial aerospace recovery boosting aftermarket\",\n \"Negative margins reflect one-time charges and costs\",\n \"Geopolitical tensions drive missile system demand\",\n \"Elevated valuation at 27x forward PE caps upside\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Geopolitical defense demand\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Backlog execution\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Commercial aerospace recovery\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Margin recovery trajectory\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"High current valuation\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Debt burden and interest\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Supply chain disruptions\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"US federal budget shifts\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Persistent negative margins\",\n \"US defense budget cuts\",\n \"Engine recall cost overruns\",\n \"Rising interest on $34B debt\",\n \"Supply chain inflation\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.08,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.135,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 17\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 162,\n \"prob\": 0.35,\n \"notes\": \"Margins stay negative amid budget cuts.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 214,\n \"prob\": 0.45,\n \"notes\": \"Gradual margin recovery with stable orders.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 255,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Strong demand and margin expansion beat.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"EV/EBITDA DCF with 8% rev CAGR, 13.5% EBIT target, 8.5% WACC, 17x terminal. HOLD as 12M target implies ~5% upside in neutral range. Snapshot data used exclusively for price/quote. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "Aerospace DCF Model", "risks": [ "Persistent negative margins", "US defense budget cuts", "Engine recall cost overruns", "Rising interest on $34B debt", "Supply chain inflation" ], "ticker": "RTX", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.45, "notes": "Gradual margin recovery with stable orders.", "target_price": 214 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.35, "notes": "Margins stay negative amid budget cuts.", "target_price": 162 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong demand and margin expansion beat.", "target_price": 255 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 17, "ebit_margin_target": 0.135 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Geopolitical defense demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Backlog execution", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Commercial aerospace recovery", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Margin recovery trajectory", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "High current valuation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt burden and interest", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Supply chain disruptions", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "US federal budget shifts", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "EV/EBITDA DCF with 8% rev CAGR, 13.5% EBIT target, 8.5% WACC, 17x terminal. HOLD as 12M target implies ~5% upside in neutral range. Snapshot data used exclusively for price/quote. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 203.48, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong defense backlog provides revenue visibility", "Commercial aerospace recovery boosting aftermarket", "Negative margins reflect one-time charges and costs", "Geopolitical tensions drive missile system demand", "Elevated valuation at 27x forward PE caps upside" ], "target_price_6m": 207, "target_price_12m": 214 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "bc89b499-6145-9bdb-b9b8-c795f4b220d5", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 16122, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:46.555Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2773, "outputTokens": 2919, "costUsd": 0.052104 } } ] } }