{ "run": { "id": "cmnr150pf0618p658gwazqu9w", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr150op0614p658xg407mh6", "ticker": "ROK", "snapshotId": "cmnr150oy0616p658eqext490", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:44.400Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr150oy0616p658eqext490", "assetId": "cmnr150op0614p658xg407mh6", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "open": 385.11, "price": 389.97, "dayLow": 384.755, "volume": 907486, "dayHigh": 394.7, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 369.37, "week52Low": 215, "week52High": 438.72 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 45.4525357607282, "beta": 1.11308246184107, "epsTTM": 7.69, "fcfTTM": 1198700000, "growth": { "epsYoy": -0.07572115384615383, "revenueYoy": -0.7476624310716854 }, "sector": "Measuring & Controlling Devices, NEC", "margins": { "net": 0.1448931116389549, "gross": 0.4826603325415677, "operating": 0.2066508313539192 }, "website": "http://rockwellautomation.com", "industry": null, "pegRatio": -6.00262059570252, "ebitdaTTM": 1706000000, "forwardPe": 28.8391089108911, "marketCap": 29100000000, "totalCash": 444000000, "totalDebt": 3336000000, "debtEquity": 0.881773399014778, "quickRatio": 0.6422363847045192, "revenueTTM": 2105000000, "companyName": "ROCKWELL AUTOMATION, INC", "priceToBook": 5.06715088757396, "currentRatio": 1.155561993047509, "dividendYield": 0.0150538061873479, "returnOnAssets": 0.02715939447907391, "returnOnEquity": 0.237821565407772, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Rockwell Automation, Inc. is an American provider of industrial automation and digital transformation technologies headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Its brands include Allen-Bradley, FactoryTalk software and LifecycleIQ Services. Rockwell Automation employs approximately 27,000 people and has customers in more than 100 countries worldwide.", "enterpriseValue": 42146031000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 26000, "sharesOutstanding": 112357908, "enterpriseToEbitda": 24.70459026963658, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 20.0218674584323, "operatingCashflowTTM": 234000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:44.386Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr150pi061ap658fegre1ff", "runId": "cmnr150pf0618p658gwazqu9w", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"claude-sonnet-4-20250514\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"ROK\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":389.97,\"target_price_6m\":395,\"target_price_12m\":402,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.52,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Premium industrial automation franchise trading at elevated 45x TTM PE\",\"Severe revenue decline (-75% YoY) signals cyclical trough or data anomaly\",\"Forward PE of 29x implies market expects meaningful earnings recovery ahead\",\"EV/EBITDA of 24.7x leaves limited margin of safety for new buyers\",\"Secular tailwinds from factory automation and reshoring partially priced in\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Industrial automation capex cycle recovery timing\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Elevated valuation multiples compress upside potential\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"US reshoring and CHIPS Act manufacturing investment\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"AI/digital transformation adoption in factory floor operations\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Revenue decline trajectory and order book stabilization\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Gross margin resilience at 48% supports pricing power thesis\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Net debt of ~$2.9B with quick ratio below 1.0\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend yield of 1.5% provides modest total return floor\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Prolonged industrial capex downturn delays revenue recovery beyond FY27\",\"Valuation de-rating if forward earnings disappoint consensus expectations\",\"Tariff escalation disrupts global supply chains and customer spending\",\"Competitive pressure from Siemens, ABB, and Emerson in automation platforms\",\"Balance sheet leverage limits flexibility if downturn deepens further\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.06,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.22,\"wacc\":0.095,\"terminal_multiple\":22},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":310,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Prolonged capex downturn, PE compresses to 25x on lower forward EPS.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":402,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Gradual revenue recovery with stable margins; valuation holds near current levels.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":470,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Strong industrial recovery, order acceleration drives earnings beat and re-rating.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended forward PE and EV/EBITDA approach. Snapshot revenue data appears anomalous (TTM $2.1B vs historical ~$8B+); EBITDA/revenue ratio inconsistency noted. Used forward PE of ~29x as primary anchor. Expected 12M return ~3% supports HOLD under rubric. Low confidence reflects data quality concerns and cyclical uncertainty. Scenario-weighted price: ~$399. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514", "risks": [ "Prolonged industrial capex downturn delays revenue recovery beyond FY27", "Valuation de-rating if forward earnings disappoint consensus expectations", "Tariff escalation disrupts global supply chains and customer spending", "Competitive pressure from Siemens, ABB, and Emerson in automation platforms", "Balance sheet leverage limits flexibility if downturn deepens further" ], "ticker": "ROK", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Gradual revenue recovery with stable margins; valuation holds near current levels.", "target_price": 402 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Prolonged capex downturn, PE compresses to 25x on lower forward EPS.", "target_price": 310 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong industrial recovery, order acceleration drives earnings beat and re-rating.", "target_price": 470 } }, "confidence": 0.52, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 22, "ebit_margin_target": 0.22 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Industrial automation capex cycle recovery timing", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Elevated valuation multiples compress upside potential", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "US reshoring and CHIPS Act manufacturing investment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "AI/digital transformation adoption in factory floor operations", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Revenue decline trajectory and order book stabilization", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Gross margin resilience at 48% supports pricing power thesis", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Net debt of ~$2.9B with quick ratio below 1.0", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend yield of 1.5% provides modest total return floor", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Blended forward PE and EV/EBITDA approach. Snapshot revenue data appears anomalous (TTM $2.1B vs historical ~$8B+); EBITDA/revenue ratio inconsistency noted. Used forward PE of ~29x as primary anchor. Expected 12M return ~3% supports HOLD under rubric. Low confidence reflects data quality concerns and cyclical uncertainty. Scenario-weighted price: ~$399. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 389.97, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Premium industrial automation franchise trading at elevated 45x TTM PE", "Severe revenue decline (-75% YoY) signals cyclical trough or data anomaly", "Forward PE of 29x implies market expects meaningful earnings recovery ahead", "EV/EBITDA of 24.7x leaves limited margin of safety for new buyers", "Secular tailwinds from factory automation and reshoring partially priced in" ], "target_price_6m": 395, "target_price_12m": 402 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 40411, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:44.400Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3600, "outputTokens": 1740, "costUsd": 0.0615 } }, { "id": "cmnr150pi061dp6589oi2ugm7", "runId": "cmnr150pf0618p658gwazqu9w", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI_Equity_Research_Model_v1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"ROK\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 389.97,\n \"target_price_6m\": 395,\n \"target_price_12m\": 400,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Industrial automation demand stable but growth slowing.\",\n \"Strong margins support profitability despite revenue declines.\",\n \"Digital transformation initiatives could drive future growth.\",\n \"High valuation multiples pose downside risk.\",\n \"Mixed earnings trends with negative recent growth.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Industrial IoT adoption\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Economic cycle sensitivity\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Margin stability\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Revenue growth challenges\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt levels\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Cash flow generation\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competitive pressures\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Technological innovation\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\"Economic downturn\", \"Increased competition\", \"Execution risks in digital transformation\", \"Valuation correction\", \"Regulatory changes\"],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.02,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.21,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 20\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 350, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Economic slowdown reduces demand.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 400, \"prob\": 0.4, \"notes\": \"Stable growth and margin maintenance.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 450, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Accelerated adoption of automation solutions.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF with normalized multiples based on industry comps. HOLD due to limited upside/downside. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI_Equity_Research_Model_v1", "risks": [ "Economic downturn", "Increased competition", "Execution risks in digital transformation", "Valuation correction", "Regulatory changes" ], "ticker": "ROK", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.4, "notes": "Stable growth and margin maintenance.", "target_price": 400 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Economic slowdown reduces demand.", "target_price": 350 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Accelerated adoption of automation solutions.", "target_price": 450 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.02, "terminal_multiple": 20, "ebit_margin_target": 0.21 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Industrial IoT adoption", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Economic cycle sensitivity", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Margin stability", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Revenue growth challenges", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt levels", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Cash flow generation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive pressures", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Technological innovation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "DCF with normalized multiples based on industry comps. HOLD due to limited upside/downside. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 389.97, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Industrial automation demand stable but growth slowing.", "Strong margins support profitability despite revenue declines.", "Digital transformation initiatives could drive future growth.", "High valuation multiples pose downside risk.", "Mixed earnings trends with negative recent growth." ], "target_price_6m": 395, "target_price_12m": 400 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 351, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:44.400Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2102, "outputTokens": 4611, "costUsd": 0.002525 } }, { "id": "cmnr150pi061bp658efkhcu2c", "runId": "cmnr150pf0618p658gwazqu9w", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"gpt-4o\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"ROK\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 389.97,\n \"target_price_6m\": 375.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 360.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"SELL\",\n \"confidence\": 0.7,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Valuation is stretched at 45x trailing and 29x forward earnings amid declining YoY revenue.\",\n \"Industrial automation capex faces near-term headwinds from high interest rates and macro uncertainty.\",\n \"Strong secular reshoring trends are already fully priced into the current premium valuation.\",\n \"Recent severe revenue contraction highlights cyclical vulnerability and potential execution risks.\",\n \"Margin expansion potential is limited given the already high 20.6% operating margin baseline.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Industrial Capex Spending\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Reshoring & Nearshoring Trends\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest Rate Environment\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Software & Recurring Revenue Mix\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Valuation Multiple Compression\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Currency FX Headwinds\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Supply Chain Normalization\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Unexpected acceleration in global manufacturing PMIs driving higher automation spend.\",\n \"Faster-than-expected adoption of AI-driven industrial software expanding margins.\",\n \"Prolonged high interest rates further delaying customer capital expenditures.\",\n \"Intensifying competition from European and Asian automation peers.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.22,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 22.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 300.0,\n \"prob\": 0.4,\n \"notes\": \"Macro slowdown and delayed capex spending compress multiples to 22x forward earnings.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 360.0,\n \"prob\": 0.4,\n \"notes\": \"Automation demand stabilizes but high valuation normalizes to 26x forward earnings.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 420.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Reshoring and AI-driven factory upgrades accelerate, supporting a 31x multiple.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Blended valuation using 26x forward P/E and DCF (8.5% WACC, 22x terminal multiple). The SELL rating reflects a -7.7% expected return, as current valuation fully prices in reshoring tailwinds while ignoring near-term capex cyclicality. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "gpt-4o", "risks": [ "Unexpected acceleration in global manufacturing PMIs driving higher automation spend.", "Faster-than-expected adoption of AI-driven industrial software expanding margins.", "Prolonged high interest rates further delaying customer capital expenditures.", "Intensifying competition from European and Asian automation peers." ], "ticker": "ROK", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.4, "notes": "Automation demand stabilizes but high valuation normalizes to 26x forward earnings.", "target_price": 360 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.4, "notes": "Macro slowdown and delayed capex spending compress multiples to 22x forward earnings.", "target_price": 300 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Reshoring and AI-driven factory upgrades accelerate, supporting a 31x multiple.", "target_price": 420 } }, "confidence": 0.7, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 22, "ebit_margin_target": 0.22 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Industrial Capex Spending", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Reshoring & Nearshoring Trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest Rate Environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Software & Recurring Revenue Mix", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Valuation Multiple Compression", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Currency FX Headwinds", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Supply Chain Normalization", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Blended valuation using 26x forward P/E and DCF (8.5% WACC, 22x terminal multiple). The SELL rating reflects a -7.7% expected return, as current valuation fully prices in reshoring tailwinds while ignoring near-term capex cyclicality. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 389.97, "recommendation": "SELL", "thesis_bullets": [ "Valuation is stretched at 45x trailing and 29x forward earnings amid declining YoY revenue.", "Industrial automation capex faces near-term headwinds from high interest rates and macro uncertainty.", "Strong secular reshoring trends are already fully priced into the current premium valuation.", "Recent severe revenue contraction highlights cyclical vulnerability and potential execution risks.", "Margin expansion potential is limited given the already high 20.6% operating margin baseline." ], "target_price_6m": 375, "target_price_12m": 360 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 23442, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:44.400Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2462, "outputTokens": 885, "costUsd": 0.015544 } }, { "id": "cmnr150pi0619p65899lm3sgg", "runId": "cmnr150pf0618p658gwazqu9w", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"gpt-5\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"ROK\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":389.97,\"target_price_6m\":376,\"target_price_12m\":404,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.61,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Premium valuation already discounts much of a cyclical recovery.\",\"Software and services mix supports resilient margins and cash generation.\",\"Forward earnings imply rebound, but recent EPS trend remains negative.\",\"Balance sheet is manageable, though liquidity is only adequate.\",\"Risk-reward looks balanced after the stock's strong rerating.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Factory automation capex recovery\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Software and lifecycle mix\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Premium valuation multiple\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Recent EPS contraction\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"FCF normalization\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Reshoring and digitalization demand\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Regional industrial weakness\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Leverage and liquidity profile\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Industrial capex stays weak longer than expected\",\"Execution missteps in software/services expansion\",\"Multiple compression if rates remain higher\",\"Snapshot revenue trend appears anomalous, reducing confidence\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":6.5,\"ebit_margin_target\":22.5,\"wacc\":8.7,\"terminal_multiple\":22},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":320,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Orders stay soft and valuation de-rates toward broader industrial peers.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":404,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Demand normalizes gradually while premium margins and multiple largely hold.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":470,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Automation spending rebounds faster and software mix lifts earnings above expectations.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Targets use a blended forward earnings and EV/EBIT framework anchored to snapshot fields; no sell-side targets used. Snapshot quote fields were not overridden; revenueTTM/revenueYoY appear inconsistent, so confidence is moderate. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "gpt-5", "risks": [ "Industrial capex stays weak longer than expected", "Execution missteps in software/services expansion", "Multiple compression if rates remain higher", "Snapshot revenue trend appears anomalous, reducing confidence" ], "ticker": "ROK", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Demand normalizes gradually while premium margins and multiple largely hold.", "target_price": 404 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Orders stay soft and valuation de-rates toward broader industrial peers.", "target_price": 320 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Automation spending rebounds faster and software mix lifts earnings above expectations.", "target_price": 470 } }, "confidence": 0.61, "assumptions": { "wacc": 8.7, "revenue_cagr_3y": 6.5, "terminal_multiple": 22, "ebit_margin_target": 22.5 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Factory automation capex recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Software and lifecycle mix", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Premium valuation multiple", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Recent EPS contraction", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "FCF normalization", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Reshoring and digitalization demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regional industrial weakness", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Leverage and liquidity profile", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Targets use a blended forward earnings and EV/EBIT framework anchored to snapshot fields; no sell-side targets used. 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Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Prolonged manufacturing downturn", "Further multiple compression", "Geopolitical disruptions", "Weaker than expected growth", "Supply chain and tariff issues" ], "ticker": "ROK", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.45, "notes": "Gradual demand recovery with stable margins.", "target_price": 400 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.35, "notes": "Deep industrial recession triggers multiple contraction.", "target_price": 310 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong automation adoption drives margin gains.", "target_price": 470 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 26, "ebit_margin_target": 0.21 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Industrial capex recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Manufacturing PMI trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Valuation multiple contraction", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Digital transformation adoption", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Economic recession risk", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Margin expansion success", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competition from Siemens/ABB", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Supply chain stabilization", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "DCF using revenue CAGR, EBIT margin, WACC and terminal multiple; mixed cyclical signals vs long-term trends support HOLD within +/-6% range. 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