{ "run": { "id": "cmnr14z6j0607p658fh0ysmt9", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr14z6205zyp658d7xvkmu4", "ticker": "QCOM", "snapshotId": "cmnr14z6b0603p658kaexuqzx", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:42.425Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr14z6b0603p658kaexuqzx", "assetId": "cmnr14z6205zyp658d7xvkmu4", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "open": 128.65, "price": 127.51, "dayLow": 125.62, "volume": 12535800, "dayHigh": 128.885, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 124.07, "week52Low": 120.8019, "week52High": 205.95 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 32.7326732673267, "beta": 1.5350978457533, "epsTTM": 5.05, "fcfTTM": 12385000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": -0.4444444444444445, "revenueYoy": -0.7233312257248667 }, "sector": "Radio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment", "margins": { "net": 0.2451844596800522, "gross": null, "operating": 0.2747306562193927 }, "website": null, "industry": null, "pegRatio": -0.736485148514852, "ebitdaTTM": 10907000000, "forwardPe": 16.9538461538462, "marketCap": 167900000000, "totalCash": 5520000000, "totalDebt": 14811000000, "debtEquity": 0.698434405356974, "quickRatio": 1.422790901137358, "revenueTTM": 12252000000, "companyName": "QUALCOMM INC/DE", "priceToBook": 8.54328020371593, "currentRatio": 2.816491688538933, "dividendYield": 0.021002512573909, "returnOnAssets": 0.05990866122888538, "returnOnEquity": 0.261293973403754, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": null, "enterpriseValue": 190459800000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": null, "sharesOutstanding": 1067000000, "enterpriseToEbitda": 17.46216191436692, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 15.54520078354554, "operatingCashflowTTM": 4965000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:42.420Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr14z6l060ep658e7yvszes", "runId": "cmnr14z6j0607p658fh0ysmt9", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"QCOM\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":127.51,\"target_price_6m\":136,\"target_price_12m\":143,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.6,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Trading near 52-week low with forward PE of ~17x implying earnings recovery ahead\",\"Strong FCF generation of ~$12.4B supports shareholder returns and R&D investment\",\"Automotive and IoT diversification partially offsets Apple modem transition headwinds\",\"On-device AI processing trend positions Snapdragon favorably for premium mobile tier\",\"Licensing (QTL) business provides high-margin recurring revenue floor\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Apple modem in-sourcing reducing QCT chip revenue\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Automotive design-win pipeline ramping revenue through 2027\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"On-device generative AI demand driving premium SoC ASP uplift\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"China smartphone market recovery and Huawei competition\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"QTL licensing renewals and 5G royalty expansion\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"PC/XR adjacency growth via Snapdragon X Elite adoption\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Geopolitical restrictions on China semiconductor exports\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Share buyback program reducing diluted share count\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Apple modem transition accelerates faster than expected, compressing QCT revenue further\",\"US-China trade tensions lead to export controls limiting QCOM's China revenue\",\"Smartphone market cyclical downturn prolongs current revenue trough\",\"MediaTek gains share in premium Android tier with competitive AI SoCs\",\"Licensing litigation challenges or renegotiations reduce QTL profitability\",\"Automotive design wins delayed or canceled by OEM production cuts\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.05,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.28,\"wacc\":0.105,\"terminal_multiple\":18},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":100,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Apple fully exits QCOM, China revenue materially restricted, smartphone market stagnates.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":143,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Earnings recover to ~$7.50 FY EPS on auto/IoT ramp, 19x forward PE.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":180,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"On-device AI supercycle drives premium ASPs; auto revenue inflects sharply higher.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Forward PE anchor: snapshot forward PE ~17x implies ~$7.52 FY EPS. Base applies 19x on recovering earnings (~$143). FCF yield ~7.4% provides valuation floor. Revenue TTM ($12.3B) appears anomalously low vs historical ~$38B; may reflect partial-year reporting or post-Apple transition trough. Scenarios probability-weighted EV ~$142, consistent with 12M target. 12M expected return ~12% supports BUY. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Apple modem transition accelerates faster than expected, compressing QCT revenue further", "US-China trade tensions lead to export controls limiting QCOM's China revenue", "Smartphone market cyclical downturn prolongs current revenue trough", "MediaTek gains share in premium Android tier with competitive AI SoCs", "Licensing litigation challenges or renegotiations reduce QTL profitability", "Automotive design wins delayed or canceled by OEM production cuts" ], "ticker": "QCOM", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Earnings recover to ~$7.50 FY EPS on auto/IoT ramp, 19x forward PE.", "target_price": 143 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Apple fully exits QCOM, China revenue materially restricted, smartphone market stagnates.", "target_price": 100 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "On-device AI supercycle drives premium ASPs; auto revenue inflects sharply higher.", "target_price": 180 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.105, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 18, "ebit_margin_target": 0.28 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Apple modem in-sourcing reducing QCT chip revenue", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Automotive design-win pipeline ramping revenue through 2027", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "On-device generative AI demand driving premium SoC ASP uplift", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "China smartphone market recovery and Huawei competition", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "QTL licensing renewals and 5G royalty expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "PC/XR adjacency growth via Snapdragon X Elite adoption", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Geopolitical restrictions on China semiconductor exports", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Share buyback program reducing diluted share count", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Forward PE anchor: snapshot forward PE ~17x implies ~$7.52 FY EPS. Base applies 19x on recovering earnings (~$143). FCF yield ~7.4% provides valuation floor. Revenue TTM ($12.3B) appears anomalously low vs historical ~$38B; may reflect partial-year reporting or post-Apple transition trough. Scenarios probability-weighted EV ~$142, consistent with 12M target. 12M expected return ~12% supports BUY. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 127.51, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Trading near 52-week low with forward PE of ~17x implying earnings recovery ahead", "Strong FCF generation of ~$12.4B supports shareholder returns and R&D investment", "Automotive and IoT diversification partially offsets Apple modem transition headwinds", "On-device AI processing trend positions Snapdragon favorably for premium mobile tier", "Licensing (QTL) business provides high-margin recurring revenue floor" ], "target_price_6m": 136, "target_price_12m": 143 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 44046, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:42.425Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3509, "outputTokens": 1852, "costUsd": 0.063845 } }, { "id": "cmnr14z6l060hp658ct1cfabt", "runId": "cmnr14z6j0607p658fh0ysmt9", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Equity_Research_Analyst_Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"QCOM\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 127.51,\n \"target_price_6m\": 132.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 139.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"QCOM benefits from 5G adoption and smartphone recovery.\",\n \"Licensing model provides stable high-margin revenue streams.\",\n \"Expansion into automotive and IoT offers growth opportunities.\",\n \"High competition and cyclicality pose significant risks.\",\n \"Current valuation discounts near-term challenges, offering upside.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Smartphone market recovery\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"5G rollout acceleration\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Automotive and IoT expansion\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Licensing revenue stability\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competitive pressure from in-house designs\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Semiconductor industry cyclicality\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory and IP risks\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Innovation in chip technology\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Economic downturn reducing device sales\",\n \"Loss of key customers to competitors\",\n \"Intellectual property disputes\",\n \"Supply chain disruptions\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.04,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.28,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 15\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 110.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Slow growth and multiple compression.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 139.0, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Moderate recovery in earnings.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 150.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong demand and margin expansion.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF with growth/margin assumptions. Probability-weighted upside >6% supports BUY. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "Equity_Research_Analyst_Model", "risks": [ "Economic downturn reducing device sales", "Loss of key customers to competitors", "Intellectual property disputes", "Supply chain disruptions" ], "ticker": "QCOM", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Moderate recovery in earnings.", "target_price": 139 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Slow growth and multiple compression.", "target_price": 110 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong demand and margin expansion.", "target_price": 150 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 15, "ebit_margin_target": 0.28 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Smartphone market recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "5G rollout acceleration", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Automotive and IoT expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Licensing revenue stability", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive pressure from in-house designs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Semiconductor industry cyclicality", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory and IP risks", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Innovation in chip technology", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "DCF with growth/margin assumptions. Probability-weighted upside >6% supports BUY. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 127.51, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "QCOM benefits from 5G adoption and smartphone recovery.", "Licensing model provides stable high-margin revenue streams.", "Expansion into automotive and IoT offers growth opportunities.", "High competition and cyclicality pose significant risks.", "Current valuation discounts near-term challenges, offering upside." ], "target_price_6m": 132, "target_price_12m": 139 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [ { "error": "sanity_error: buy_scenario_return_too_low: BUY requires >= 6% return from probability-weighted scenarios.", "attempt": 0, "rawOutputTruncated": "{\n \"model\": \"Equity_Research_Analyst_Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"QCOM\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 127.51,\n \"target_price_6m\": 132.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 138.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"QCOM benefits from 5G adoption and smartphone recovery.\",\n \"Licensing model provides stable high-margin revenue streams.\",\n \"Expansion into automotive and IoT offers growth opportunities.\",\n \"High competition and cyclicality pose significant risks.\",\n \"Current valuation discounts near-term challenges, offering upside.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Smartphone market recovery\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"5G rollout acceleration\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Automotive and IoT expansion\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Licensing revenue stability\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competitive pressure from in-house designs\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Semiconductor industry cyclicality\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Reg…" } ], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 345, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:42.425Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2696, "outputTokens": 2959, "costUsd": 0.001998 } }, { "id": "cmnr14z6l060fp658fmpjx8lz", "runId": "cmnr14z6j0607p658fh0ysmt9", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Model Recommendation\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"QCOM\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 127.51,\n \"target_price_6m\": 135.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 145.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Severe revenue contraction appears priced in with shares trading near 52-week lows.\",\n \"Forward P/E of 17x implies market expects a sharp earnings recovery next year.\",\n \"Edge AI and Snapdragon X Elite processors offer strong growth vectors beyond handsets.\",\n \"Automotive design wins provide a growing, high-margin revenue stream to offset smartphone maturity.\",\n \"Apple modem replacement and Chinese domestic competition remain significant structural headwinds.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Handset market recovery\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"AI PC processor adoption\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Apple modem transition\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Automotive pipeline execution\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"China market share vs Huawei\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"IoT segment inventory clearing\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged slump in global smartphone replacement cycles.\",\n \"Accelerated timeline for Apple's in-house 5G modem deployment.\",\n \"Intensifying competition from MediaTek in premium Android tiers.\",\n \"Geopolitical tensions impacting sales to Chinese OEMs.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.08,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.30,\n \"wacc\": 0.105,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 15.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 105.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Smartphone market stagnates and Apple accelerates modem replacement.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 145.00,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Handset cycle normalizes and AI PC chips gain moderate traction.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 180.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Edge AI drives a massive upgrade supercycle across mobile and PC.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on 15x terminal multiple on normalized forward earnings, blending DCF and historical P/E. Snapshot shows severe TTM contraction but forward P/E implies recovery. Recommendation is BUY based on ~14% upside. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation", "risks": [ "Prolonged slump in global smartphone replacement cycles.", "Accelerated timeline for Apple's in-house 5G modem deployment.", "Intensifying competition from MediaTek in premium Android tiers.", "Geopolitical tensions impacting sales to Chinese OEMs." ], "ticker": "QCOM", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Handset cycle normalizes and AI PC chips gain moderate traction.", "target_price": 145 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Smartphone market stagnates and Apple accelerates modem replacement.", "target_price": 105 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Edge AI drives a massive upgrade supercycle across mobile and PC.", "target_price": 180 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.105, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 15, "ebit_margin_target": 0.3 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Handset market recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "AI PC processor adoption", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Apple modem transition", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Automotive pipeline execution", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "China market share vs Huawei", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "IoT segment inventory clearing", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on 15x terminal multiple on normalized forward earnings, blending DCF and historical P/E. Snapshot shows severe TTM contraction but forward P/E implies recovery. Recommendation is BUY based on ~14% upside. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 127.51, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Severe revenue contraction appears priced in with shares trading near 52-week lows.", "Forward P/E of 17x implies market expects a sharp earnings recovery next year.", "Edge AI and Snapdragon X Elite processors offer strong growth vectors beyond handsets.", "Automotive design wins provide a growing, high-margin revenue stream to offset smartphone maturity.", "Apple modem replacement and Chinese domestic competition remain significant structural headwinds." ], "target_price_6m": 135, "target_price_12m": 145 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 26114, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:42.425Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2385, "outputTokens": 817, "costUsd": 0.014574 } }, { "id": "cmnr14z6l060dp65841oh6oak", "runId": "cmnr14z6j0607p658fh0ysmt9", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"OpenAI o3\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"QCOM\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":127.51,\"target_price_6m\":138,\"target_price_12m\":148,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Forward P/E near 17x suggests recovery is only partly priced in.\",\"Licensing and premium chipset franchises support durable cash generation.\",\"Auto and IoT broaden growth beyond handsets, though still smaller today.\",\"Apple modem insourcing and China weakness limit near-term upside.\",\"Risk-reward is favorable, but evidence is mixed so conviction is moderate.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Licensing royalty resilience\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Premium Android chipset share\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Auto and IoT expansion\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"On-device AI refresh cycle\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Apple modem insourcing\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"China handset demand\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Capital returns and dividend\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Faster Apple modem transition\",\"Deeper smartphone unit weakness\",\"China concentration and geopolitics\",\"Licensing or antitrust disputes\",\"Multiple compression from market risk-off\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.07,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.29,\"wacc\":0.095,\"terminal_multiple\":17.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":112,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Apple insourcing and China softness delay earnings recovery.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":148,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Licensing stays resilient while auto and IoT lift mix.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":182,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"AI device demand and share gains drive faster rerating.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Used snapshot quote fields exactly. Snapshot revenue/growth data appear inconsistent with QCOM scale, so valuation leans on forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, FCF and margin normalization; 12M target matches base scenario and implies ~16% upside. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "OpenAI o3", "risks": [ "Faster Apple modem transition", "Deeper smartphone unit weakness", "China concentration and geopolitics", "Licensing or antitrust disputes", "Multiple compression from market risk-off" ], "ticker": "QCOM", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Licensing stays resilient while auto and IoT lift mix.", "target_price": 148 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Apple insourcing and China softness delay earnings recovery.", "target_price": 112 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "AI device demand and share gains drive faster rerating.", "target_price": 182 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.07, "terminal_multiple": 17.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.29 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Licensing royalty resilience", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Premium Android chipset share", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Auto and IoT expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "On-device AI refresh cycle", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Apple modem insourcing", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "China handset demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Capital returns and dividend", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Used snapshot quote fields exactly. Snapshot revenue/growth data appear inconsistent with QCOM scale, so valuation leans on forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, FCF and margin normalization; 12M target matches base scenario and implies ~16% upside. not investment advice", "current_price": 127.51, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Forward P/E near 17x suggests recovery is only partly priced in.", "Licensing and premium chipset franchises support durable cash generation.", "Auto and IoT broaden growth beyond handsets, though still smaller today.", "Apple modem insourcing and China weakness limit near-term upside.", "Risk-reward is favorable, but evidence is mixed so conviction is moderate." ], "target_price_6m": 138, "target_price_12m": 148 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_07f2858172d19bc30069d75ce4f27c8196ad315ca3446fba5a", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 35274, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:42.425Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2299, "outputTokens": 1791, "costUsd": 0.029097 } }, { "id": "cmnr14z6l060gp658fonom5et", "runId": "cmnr14z6j0607p658fh0ysmt9", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Analyst Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"QCOM\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 127.51,\n \"target_price_6m\": 137,\n \"target_price_12m\": 150,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.58,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"AI features in Snapdragon to drive premium device growth.\",\n \"Forward PE of 17x attractive vs recovery prospects.\",\n \"Robust FCF supports dividends and share repurchases.\",\n \"Diversification into auto and IoT reduces handset risk.\",\n \"Geopolitical tensions with China pressure near-term sales.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"AI and 5G chipset demand\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Handset market recovery\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"US-China trade tensions\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Automotive semiconductor growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Competition from MediaTek/Huawei\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"IoT and edge AI expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"EBIT margin expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Macro demand slowdown\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Escalating US-China trade restrictions\",\n \"Prolonged smartphone market weakness\",\n \"Loss of share in mobile chips\",\n \"Regulatory risks to licensing model\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.11,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.3,\n \"wacc\": 0.1,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 19\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 105,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Extended handset downturn and trade barriers.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 150,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"AI-driven recovery in mobile and auto.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 185,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated AI adoption across segments.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF using 11% 3Y revenue CAGR, 30% EBIT margin target, 10% WACC and 19x terminal multiple. BUY reflects ~18% 12M upside from AI tailwinds despite mixed growth. Snapshot shows sharp YOY declines. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Analyst Model", "risks": [ "Escalating US-China trade restrictions", "Prolonged smartphone market weakness", "Loss of share in mobile chips", "Regulatory risks to licensing model" ], "ticker": "QCOM", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "AI-driven recovery in mobile and auto.", "target_price": 150 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Extended handset downturn and trade barriers.", "target_price": 105 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated AI adoption across segments.", "target_price": 185 } }, "confidence": 0.58, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.1, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.11, "terminal_multiple": 19, "ebit_margin_target": 0.3 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "AI and 5G chipset demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Handset market recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "US-China trade tensions", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Automotive semiconductor growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competition from MediaTek/Huawei", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "IoT and edge AI expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "EBIT margin expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macro demand slowdown", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF using 11% 3Y revenue CAGR, 30% EBIT margin target, 10% WACC and 19x terminal multiple. BUY reflects ~18% 12M upside from AI tailwinds despite mixed growth. Snapshot shows sharp YOY declines. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 127.51, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "AI features in Snapdragon to drive premium device growth.", "Forward PE of 17x attractive vs recovery prospects.", "Robust FCF supports dividends and share repurchases.", "Diversification into auto and IoT reduces handset risk.", "Geopolitical tensions with China pressure near-term sales." ], "target_price_6m": 137, "target_price_12m": 150 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "4bd28c49-e45b-9153-8d95-10450506c039", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 18690, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:42.425Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2640, "outputTokens": 3403, "costUsd": 0.058965 } } ] } }