{ "run": { "id": "cmnr14yub05zap6584s7sh35v", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr14ytr05z6p658rigiv090", "ticker": "RJF", "snapshotId": "cmnr14yu405z8p658ecgleisv", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:41.985Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr14yu405z8p658ecgleisv", "assetId": "cmnr14ytr05z6p658rigiv090", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "open": 144.95, "price": 147.82, "dayLow": 144.88, "volume": 1264316, "dayHigh": 148.44, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 142.38, "week52Low": 117.565, "week52High": 177.66 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 16.3912630579297, "beta": 1.05150895352519, "epsTTM": 10.53, "fcfTTM": 2204000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.05935613682092554, "revenueYoy": -0.7375565610859729 }, "sector": "Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies", "margins": { "net": 0.1348180076628352, "gross": null, "operating": null }, "website": "http://raymondjames.com", "industry": "Investment services", "pegRatio": 2.76151109823427, "ebitdaTTM": 5128000000, "forwardPe": 14.5286195286195, "marketCap": 28106525241, "totalCash": 11389000000, "totalDebt": 3520000000, "debtEquity": 0.281532432216268, "quickRatio": null, "revenueTTM": 4176000000, "companyName": "RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL INC", "priceToBook": 2.78832373640435, "currentRatio": null, "dividendYield": 0.0119316682537315, "returnOnAssets": 0.006381049529638445, "returnOnEquity": 0.170759017835719, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Raymond James Financial, Inc. is an American multinational independent investment bank and financial services company providing financial services to individuals, corporations, and municipalities through its subsidiary companies that engage primarily in investment and financial planning, in addition to investment banking and asset management. The company is headquartered in St. Petersburg, Florida.", "enterpriseValue": 26996200000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 19500, "sharesOutstanding": 197091037, "enterpriseToEbitda": 5.264469578783151, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 6.464607279693487, "operatingCashflowTTM": -10000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:41.980Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr14yuf05zcp658dy6yk1x7", "runId": "cmnr14yub05zap6584s7sh35v", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"RJF\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":147.82,\"target_price_6m\":157,\"target_price_12m\":165,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Solid ROE of ~17% supports premium-to-book valuation for broker-dealer\",\"P/E of 16.4x is modest versus historical range and quality franchise\",\"Net cash balance sheet with $11.4B cash vs $3.5B debt\",\"Diversified revenue mix across advisory, banking, and capital markets\",\"Trading ~17% below 52-week high creates favorable entry point\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Interest rate environment and net interest income trajectory\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Equity market conditions impacting AUM-based fees\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Advisor recruitment pipeline supporting organic growth\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Capital markets and M&A deal flow recovery\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating leverage from technology investments\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Macro slowdown risk reducing client activity volumes\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory and compliance cost pressures\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Competitive pressure on advisor compensation rates\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Equity market correction reducing AUM fees and trading revenues\",\"Recession scenario compressing investment banking pipeline\",\"Credit deterioration in Raymond James Bank loan portfolio\",\"Unexpected regulatory changes increasing capital requirements\",\"Key personnel or advisor attrition to competitors\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.06,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.20,\"wacc\":0.10,\"terminal_multiple\":15},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":122,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Recession pressures AUM/banking fees; P/E compresses to ~12x on lower earnings.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":165,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Mid-single-digit EPS growth to ~$11.10; P/E sustains near 15x on stable macro.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":195,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Strong markets drive AUM growth and banking recovery; P/E re-rates to 16-17x.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Earnings-power valuation anchored on normalized P/E (15x) applied to projected FY EPS of ~$11.10 assuming ~5-6% growth. ROE of 17% supports P/B of ~2.8x as cross-check. Revenue YoY figure of -73.8% appears to be a data anomaly (likely net vs gross revenue reclassification for financial services); normalized growth assumed at 6% CAGR. 12M upside of ~11.6% supports BUY. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Equity market correction reducing AUM fees and trading revenues", "Recession scenario compressing investment banking pipeline", "Credit deterioration in Raymond James Bank loan portfolio", "Unexpected regulatory changes increasing capital requirements", "Key personnel or advisor attrition to competitors" ], "ticker": "RJF", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Mid-single-digit EPS growth to ~$11.10; P/E sustains near 15x on stable macro.", "target_price": 165 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Recession pressures AUM/banking fees; P/E compresses to ~12x on lower earnings.", "target_price": 122 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong markets drive AUM growth and banking recovery; P/E re-rates to 16-17x.", "target_price": 195 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.1, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 15, "ebit_margin_target": 0.2 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Interest rate environment and net interest income trajectory", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Equity market conditions impacting AUM-based fees", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Advisor recruitment pipeline supporting organic growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Capital markets and M&A deal flow recovery", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating leverage from technology investments", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macro slowdown risk reducing client activity volumes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory and compliance cost pressures", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competitive pressure on advisor compensation rates", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Earnings-power valuation anchored on normalized P/E (15x) applied to projected FY EPS of ~$11.10 assuming ~5-6% growth. ROE of 17% supports P/B of ~2.8x as cross-check. Revenue YoY figure of -73.8% appears to be a data anomaly (likely net vs gross revenue reclassification for financial services); normalized growth assumed at 6% CAGR. 12M upside of ~11.6% supports BUY. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 147.82, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Solid ROE of ~17% supports premium-to-book valuation for broker-dealer", "P/E of 16.4x is modest versus historical range and quality franchise", "Net cash balance sheet with $11.4B cash vs $3.5B debt", "Diversified revenue mix across advisory, banking, and capital markets", "Trading ~17% below 52-week high creates favorable entry point" ], "target_price_6m": 157, "target_price_12m": 165 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 39679, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:41.985Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3563, "outputTokens": 1757, "costUsd": 0.06174 } }, { "id": "cmnr14yuf05zfp658ic8sqw4d", "runId": "cmnr14yub05zap6584s7sh35v", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"DCF_Relative_Valuation_Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"RJF\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 147.82,\n \"target_price_6m\": 155,\n \"target_price_12m\": 166,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong wealth management franchise with recurring fee income.\",\n \"Investment banking segment recovery potential amid market stabilization.\",\n \"Cost efficiency and margin resilience despite revenue volatility.\",\n \"Valuation discount to historical and peer multiples.\",\n \"Dividend yield supports total returns in moderate scenarios.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Economic Growth\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Interest Rate Environment\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Market Performance and Volatility\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory Changes\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competitive Intensity\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Client Asset Inflows\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Technology and Efficiency Gains\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Economic downturn reducing investment activity and fees.\",\n \"Adverse shifts in interest rates impacting net interest income.\",\n \"Increased regulatory compliance costs and scrutiny.\",\n \"Cyclical declines in capital markets revenues.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.04,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.15,\n \"wacc\": 0.08,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 15\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 130, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Severe market downturn leads to earnings contraction.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 166, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Moderate growth with stable margins and valuation.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 190, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong market activity drives revenue and multiple expansion.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on forward P/E and growth assumptions; BUY due to ~12% 12M upside. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "DCF_Relative_Valuation_Model", "risks": [ "Economic downturn reducing investment activity and fees.", "Adverse shifts in interest rates impacting net interest income.", "Increased regulatory compliance costs and scrutiny.", "Cyclical declines in capital markets revenues." ], "ticker": "RJF", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Moderate growth with stable margins and valuation.", "target_price": 166 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Severe market downturn leads to earnings contraction.", "target_price": 130 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong market activity drives revenue and multiple expansion.", "target_price": 190 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.08, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 15, "ebit_margin_target": 0.15 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Economic Growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest Rate Environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Market Performance and Volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory Changes", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competitive Intensity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Client Asset Inflows", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Technology and Efficiency Gains", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on forward P/E and growth assumptions; BUY due to ~12% 12M upside. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 147.82, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong wealth management franchise with recurring fee income.", "Investment banking segment recovery potential amid market stabilization.", "Cost efficiency and margin resilience despite revenue volatility.", "Valuation discount to historical and peer multiples.", "Dividend yield supports total returns in moderate scenarios." ], "target_price_6m": 155, "target_price_12m": 166 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 433, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:41.985Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2082, "outputTokens": 3337, "costUsd": 0.001985 } }, { "id": "cmnr14yuf05zdp658se321ybx", "runId": "cmnr14yub05zap6584s7sh35v", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"RJF_Equity_Model_v1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"RJF\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 147.82,\n \"target_price_6m\": 150.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 155.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Solid wealth management franchise with sticky advisor relationships and steady AUA growth.\",\n \"Net interest income faces headwinds from anticipated central bank rate cuts.\",\n \"Capital markets segment shows signs of recovery but remains vulnerable to macro shocks.\",\n \"Valuation at ~14.5x forward P/E appears fair given near-term earnings contraction risks.\",\n \"Strong balance sheet and 17% ROE provide downside protection, supporting a Hold rating.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"AUA/AUM growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Short-term interest rates\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Advisor headcount retention\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Investment banking deal flow\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Cash sweep balances\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operating margin expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Accelerated decline in short-term interest rates compressing net interest margins.\",\n \"Equity market downturn reducing fee-based revenues and AUA.\",\n \"Increased competition for financial advisors driving up compensation costs.\",\n \"Regulatory scrutiny over cash sweep programs and fee structures.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.04,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.22,\n \"wacc\": 0.095,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 14.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 130.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Rate cuts severely compress NII and equity markets correct, lowering AUA fees.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 155.00,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Stable equity markets offset moderate NII compression, maintaining ~15x P/E.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 180.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Capital markets rebound strongly and advisor recruiting accelerates AUA growth.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a blend of 15x forward P/E and a 10-year DCF. The +4.8% upside to the 12M target falls within the HOLD threshold, reflecting balanced risk/reward amid rate cut headwinds. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "RJF_Equity_Model_v1", "risks": [ "Accelerated decline in short-term interest rates compressing net interest margins.", "Equity market downturn reducing fee-based revenues and AUA.", "Increased competition for financial advisors driving up compensation costs.", "Regulatory scrutiny over cash sweep programs and fee structures." ], "ticker": "RJF", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Stable equity markets offset moderate NII compression, maintaining ~15x P/E.", "target_price": 155 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Rate cuts severely compress NII and equity markets correct, lowering AUA fees.", "target_price": 130 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Capital markets rebound strongly and advisor recruiting accelerates AUA growth.", "target_price": 180 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 14, "ebit_margin_target": 0.22 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "AUA/AUM growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Short-term interest rates", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Advisor headcount retention", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Investment banking deal flow", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cash sweep balances", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operating margin expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a blend of 15x forward P/E and a 10-year DCF. The +4.8% upside to the 12M target falls within the HOLD threshold, reflecting balanced risk/reward amid rate cut headwinds. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 147.82, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Solid wealth management franchise with sticky advisor relationships and steady AUA growth.", "Net interest income faces headwinds from anticipated central bank rate cuts.", "Capital markets segment shows signs of recovery but remains vulnerable to macro shocks.", "Valuation at ~14.5x forward P/E appears fair given near-term earnings contraction risks.", "Strong balance sheet and 17% ROE provide downside protection, supporting a Hold rating." ], "target_price_6m": 150, "target_price_12m": 155 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 28467, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:41.985Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2400, "outputTokens": 840, "costUsd": 0.01488 } }, { "id": "cmnr14yuf05zbp658511pm7pa", "runId": "cmnr14yub05zap6584s7sh35v", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"gpt-5\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"RJF\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":147.82,\"target_price_6m\":151.5,\"target_price_12m\":154.5,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.63,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Advisor and client asset growth support steady fee revenue.\",\"Net interest income may soften as rates normalize and cash sorting persists.\",\"Strong balance sheet supports buybacks, dividends, and selective acquisitions.\",\"Valuation appears near fair at ~16x trailing earnings and 2.8x book.\",\"Mid-teens ROE offsets cyclical investment-banking and capital-markets volatility.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Advisor headcount growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Client assets and fee mix\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Short-term rate normalization\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Cash sorting trends\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Equity market levels\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Investment banking pipeline\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Capital return and buybacks\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory and compliance costs\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Faster rate cuts reduce net interest income.\",\"Market downturn lowers fee-based assets.\",\"Deal activity stays weak longer than expected.\",\"Advisor attrition or higher recruiting costs.\",\"Regulatory, legal, or operational charges rise.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":6.5,\"ebit_margin_target\":31,\"wacc\":10.5,\"terminal_multiple\":14.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":128,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Rate cuts and weaker markets compress spreads, fees, and sentiment.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":154.5,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Advisor growth and stable markets mostly offset lower sweep economics.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":170,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Stronger equities and deal recovery sustain higher ROE and multiple.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended normalized earnings-power and justified P/B/ROE valuation. Used snapshot quote fields exactly; snapshot revenue/EBITDA fields appear internally inconsistent, so targets rely more on P/E, P/B, ROE, and balance-sheet context. No sell-side targets used; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "gpt-5", "risks": [ "Faster rate cuts reduce net interest income.", "Market downturn lowers fee-based assets.", "Deal activity stays weak longer than expected.", "Advisor attrition or higher recruiting costs.", "Regulatory, legal, or operational charges rise." ], "ticker": "RJF", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Advisor growth and stable markets mostly offset lower sweep economics.", "target_price": 154.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Rate cuts and weaker markets compress spreads, fees, and sentiment.", "target_price": 128 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Stronger equities and deal recovery sustain higher ROE and multiple.", "target_price": 170 } }, "confidence": 0.63, "assumptions": { "wacc": 10.5, "revenue_cagr_3y": 6.5, "terminal_multiple": 14.5, "ebit_margin_target": 31 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Advisor headcount growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Client assets and fee mix", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Short-term rate normalization", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Cash sorting trends", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Equity market levels", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Investment banking pipeline", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Capital return and buybacks", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory and compliance costs", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended normalized earnings-power and justified P/B/ROE valuation. Used snapshot quote fields exactly; snapshot revenue/EBITDA fields appear internally inconsistent, so targets rely more on P/E, P/B, ROE, and balance-sheet context. No sell-side targets used; not investment advice.", "current_price": 147.82, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Advisor and client asset growth support steady fee revenue.", "Net interest income may soften as rates normalize and cash sorting persists.", "Strong balance sheet supports buybacks, dividends, and selective acquisitions.", "Valuation appears near fair at ~16x trailing earnings and 2.8x book.", "Mid-teens ROE offsets cyclical investment-banking and capital-markets volatility." ], "target_price_6m": 151.5, "target_price_12m": 154.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0e2a6a7fdda470ed0069d75cdbc6108197a89d9fb096637f07", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 41196, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:41.985Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2352, "outputTokens": 2172, "costUsd": 0.034524 } }, { "id": "cmnr14yuf05zep658h5ipnyql", "runId": "cmnr14yub05zap6584s7sh35v", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Balanced Fundamental Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"RJF\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 147.82,\n \"target_price_6m\": 151,\n \"target_price_12m\": 155,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Stable wealth management fees provide recurring revenue\",\n \"Solid ROE and capital base support dividends\",\n \"Valuation at 2.8x P/B appears fair for sector\",\n \"Cyclical IB revenues expose to market swings\",\n \"Regulatory and rate shifts may pressure margins\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Wealth mgmt AUM growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Investment banking deal flow\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Net interest income trends\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Equity market performance\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory compliance costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Competition in brokerage\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Cost discipline initiatives\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"M&A integration execution\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged equity market decline\",\n \"Tighter financial regulations\",\n \"Interest rate volatility\",\n \"Cybersecurity breaches\",\n \"Intense industry competition\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.07,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.24,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 15\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 125,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Market correction hits fees and IB activity.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 155,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Steady AUM growth and stable margins continue.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 185,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Strong markets boost trading and banking volumes.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation anchored on peer P/E, P/B comps and normalized earnings growth. Mixed growth signals and fair valuation yield HOLD with modest upside. not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "Balanced Fundamental Model", "risks": [ "Prolonged equity market decline", "Tighter financial regulations", "Interest rate volatility", "Cybersecurity breaches", "Intense industry competition" ], "ticker": "RJF", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady AUM growth and stable margins continue.", "target_price": 155 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Market correction hits fees and IB activity.", "target_price": 125 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong markets boost trading and banking volumes.", "target_price": 185 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.07, "terminal_multiple": 15, "ebit_margin_target": 0.24 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Wealth mgmt AUM growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Investment banking deal flow", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Net interest income trends", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Equity market performance", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory compliance costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competition in brokerage", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Cost discipline initiatives", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "M&A integration execution", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation anchored on peer P/E, P/B comps and normalized earnings growth. Mixed growth signals and fair valuation yield HOLD with modest upside. not investment advice.", "current_price": 147.82, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stable wealth management fees provide recurring revenue", "Solid ROE and capital base support dividends", "Valuation at 2.8x P/B appears fair for sector", "Cyclical IB revenues expose to market swings", "Regulatory and rate shifts may pressure margins" ], "target_price_6m": 151, "target_price_12m": 155 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "26ad5cf4-21d1-9cc3-a2b9-b6fd1d483c29", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 20024, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:41.985Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2687, "outputTokens": 3134, "costUsd": 0.055071 } } ] } }