{ "run": { "id": "cmnr14p8l05cyp658pk40tg5x", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr14p7q05csp658s7kb2jt3", "ticker": "NI", "snapshotId": "cmnr14p8105cup658q581lokw", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:29.539Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr14p8105cup658q581lokw", "assetId": "cmnr14p7q05csp658s7kb2jt3", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "open": null, "price": 48.1, "dayLow": 47.31, "volume": 2597885, "dayHigh": 48.13, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 47.65, "week52Low": 35.68, "week52High": 48.13 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 21.3061224489796, "beta": 0.44531454622021, "epsTTM": 1.96, "fcfTTM": -2039600000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.2024539877300614, "revenueYoy": 0.23470063790721 }, "sector": "Electric & Other Services Combined", "margins": { "net": -0.003934543503532147, "gross": 0.2707234194759903, "operating": 0.1231333273719038 }, "website": "http://nisource.com", "industry": "Public utility", "pegRatio": 1.05239332096475, "ebitdaTTM": 2739400000, "forwardPe": 20.4705882352941, "marketCap": 18966136571, "totalCash": 110100000, "totalDebt": 16193800000, "debtEquity": 1.71361149617464, "quickRatio": 0.3782032741366345, "revenueTTM": 4473200000, "companyName": "NISOURCE INC.", "priceToBook": 0.552449561918829, "currentRatio": 0.6875686932376931, "dividendYield": 0.0269896594664534, "returnOnAssets": -0.0004908153390948361, "returnOnEquity": 0.0983587475264812, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "NiSource Inc. is one of the largest fully regulated utility companies in the United States, serving approximately 3.5 million natural gas customers and 500,000 electric customers across six states through its local Columbia Gas and NIPSCO brands. The company, based in Merrillville, Indiana, has more than 8,000 employees. As of 2018, NiSource is the sole Indiana-based utility company.", "enterpriseValue": 35832004000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 7687, "sharesOutstanding": 478533171, "enterpriseToEbitda": 13.08023800832299, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 8.010373781632836, "operatingCashflowTTM": 2362300000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:29.521Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr14p8p05d0p658ywhellm5", "runId": "cmnr14p8l05cyp658pk40tg5x", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Equity Research Model v1.0\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"NI\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":48.1,\"target_price_6m\":49.8,\"target_price_12m\":51.5,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.6,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Fully regulated utility with predictable earnings from 3.5M gas customers\",\"Rate base growth driven by multi-billion-dollar infrastructure modernization capex\",\"EPS YoY growth of 20% reflects constructive regulatory outcomes\",\"Dividend yield of ~2.7% provides income floor for total return\",\"Valuation at 21x PE is fair but not stretched for regulated utility peers\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Rate base growth from gas pipeline modernization and electric grid investment\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Constructive regulatory environments across six-state footprint\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Rising interest rates increasing embedded cost of debt on $16.2B leverage\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Transition from coal to renewables at NIPSCO electric segment\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Negative FCF from heavy capital deployment constraining near-term flexibility\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Low beta (0.45) provides defensive positioning in volatile markets\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Potential regulatory lag on cost recovery during inflationary periods\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Federal infrastructure incentives supporting utility capex programs\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Adverse regulatory decisions reducing allowed ROE or delaying cost recovery\",\"Rising long-term interest rates compressing utility PE multiples broadly\",\"Execution risk on large-scale capital projects leading to cost overruns\",\"Debt-heavy balance sheet (D/E 1.71) limits financial flexibility in downturns\",\"Commodity price volatility impacting gas procurement costs and customer affordability\",\"Weather-driven earnings volatility in heating and cooling demand\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.06,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.19,\"wacc\":0.065,\"terminal_multiple\":21},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":42,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Regulatory headwinds plus rate compression from higher long-term yields.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":51.5,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Steady 6-8% EPS growth from rate base expansion with stable allowed ROE.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":58,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Accelerated infrastructure spend plus favorable multi-state rate case outcomes.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Utility valuation anchored on forward PE (20-21x) applied to projected EPS of ~$2.45-2.50 driven by 6-8% rate base CAGR. EV/EBITDA of 13.1x is in-line with regulated peers. Negative FCF reflects heavy capex cycle typical for growth-oriented utilities. 12M expected return of ~7% supports BUY. Probability-weighted scenario target ($50.9) is consistent with base case. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model v1.0", "risks": [ "Adverse regulatory decisions reducing allowed ROE or delaying cost recovery", "Rising long-term interest rates compressing utility PE multiples broadly", "Execution risk on large-scale capital projects leading to cost overruns", "Debt-heavy balance sheet (D/E 1.71) limits financial flexibility in downturns", "Commodity price volatility impacting gas procurement costs and customer affordability", "Weather-driven earnings volatility in heating and cooling demand" ], "ticker": "NI", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady 6-8% EPS growth from rate base expansion with stable allowed ROE.", "target_price": 51.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Regulatory headwinds plus rate compression from higher long-term yields.", "target_price": 42 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Accelerated infrastructure spend plus favorable multi-state rate case outcomes.", "target_price": 58 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.065, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 21, "ebit_margin_target": 0.19 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Rate base growth from gas pipeline modernization and electric grid investment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Constructive regulatory environments across six-state footprint", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Rising interest rates increasing embedded cost of debt on $16.2B leverage", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Transition from coal to renewables at NIPSCO electric segment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Negative FCF from heavy capital deployment constraining near-term flexibility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Low beta (0.45) provides defensive positioning in volatile markets", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Potential regulatory lag on cost recovery during inflationary periods", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Federal infrastructure incentives supporting utility capex programs", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Utility valuation anchored on forward PE (20-21x) applied to projected EPS of ~$2.45-2.50 driven by 6-8% rate base CAGR. EV/EBITDA of 13.1x is in-line with regulated peers. Negative FCF reflects heavy capex cycle typical for growth-oriented utilities. 12M expected return of ~7% supports BUY. Probability-weighted scenario target ($50.9) is consistent with base case. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 48.1, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Fully regulated utility with predictable earnings from 3.5M gas customers", "Rate base growth driven by multi-billion-dollar infrastructure modernization capex", "EPS YoY growth of 20% reflects constructive regulatory outcomes", "Dividend yield of ~2.7% provides income floor for total return", "Valuation at 21x PE is fair but not stretched for regulated utility peers" ], "target_price_6m": 49.8, "target_price_12m": 51.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 45713, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:29.539Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3611, "outputTokens": 2124, "costUsd": 0.071155 } }, { "id": "cmnr14p8p05d3p658ma649nql", "runId": "cmnr14p8l05cyp658pk40tg5x", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Utility DCF Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"NI\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 48.1,\n \"target_price_6m\": 48.5,\n \"target_price_12m\": 49.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Stable regulated utility with predictable cash flows.\",\n \"High revenue and EPS growth from rate cases.\",\n \"Leveraged balance sheet increases financial risk.\",\n \"Dividend yield provides income support for investors.\",\n \"Valuation appears fair relative to peers and growth.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory rate increases\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Capital investment program\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt levels and interest costs\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Customer growth in service areas\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Operating efficiency improvements\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Commodity price volatility\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Dividend policy stability\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Regulatory disapproval of rate cases\",\n \"Rising interest rates increasing debt costs\",\n \"Economic downturn affecting customer demand\",\n \"Operational failures or safety incidents\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.06,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.125,\n \"wacc\": 0.07,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 12\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 45.0, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Regulatory setbacks and higher costs lead to underperformance.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 49.0, \"prob\": 0.5, \"notes\": \"Steady execution on rate cases and moderate growth.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 52.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Favorable regulatory outcomes and faster cost recovery.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on DCF with 7% WACC and 12x terminal EBITDA; HOLD as upside limited to ~2% with balanced risks. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "Utility DCF Model", "risks": [ "Regulatory disapproval of rate cases", "Rising interest rates increasing debt costs", "Economic downturn affecting customer demand", "Operational failures or safety incidents" ], "ticker": "NI", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady execution on rate cases and moderate growth.", "target_price": 49 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Regulatory setbacks and higher costs lead to underperformance.", "target_price": 45 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Favorable regulatory outcomes and faster cost recovery.", "target_price": 52 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.07, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 12, "ebit_margin_target": 0.125 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Regulatory rate increases", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Capital investment program", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt levels and interest costs", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Customer growth in service areas", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating efficiency improvements", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Commodity price volatility", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend policy stability", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on DCF with 7% WACC and 12x terminal EBITDA; HOLD as upside limited to ~2% with balanced risks. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 48.1, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stable regulated utility with predictable cash flows.", "High revenue and EPS growth from rate cases.", "Leveraged balance sheet increases financial risk.", "Dividend yield provides income support for investors.", "Valuation appears fair relative to peers and growth." ], "target_price_6m": 48.5, "target_price_12m": 49 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 442, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:29.539Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2121, "outputTokens": 3654, "costUsd": 0.002129 } }, { "id": "cmnr14p8p05d1p658sup0ut3t", "runId": "cmnr14p8l05cyp658pk40tg5x", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"EquityAnalyst-NI-2026\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"NI\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":48.1,\"target_price_6m\":50.0,\"target_price_12m\":52.0,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.72,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Fully regulated revenue streams provide high visibility into future earnings and dividends.\",\"Aggressive capital plan focused on grid modernization and coal-to-renewables transition.\",\"Projected 6-8% annual EPS growth outpaces many large-cap utility peers.\",\"Significant valuation discount relative to book value suggests limited downside risk.\",\"Low correlation to broader equity markets provides excellent portfolio diversification benefits.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Rate case approvals\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest rate shifts\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Renewable energy transition\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operational efficiency\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory environment\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Regulatory lag in recovering capital expenditures.\",\"Rising interest rates increasing the cost of debt.\",\"Execution risk in large-scale renewable projects.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.07,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.25,\"wacc\":0.065,\"terminal_multiple\":19.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":43.0,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Higher interest rates and regulatory delays in Indiana.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":52.0,\"prob\":0.6,\"notes\":\"Steady rate base growth and successful coal retirement.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":59.0,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Accelerated renewable deployment and favorable rate settlements.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Valuation uses a blend of P/E multiple expansion and a Dividend Discount Model. Target price of $52 implies a 21.5x forward P/E, justified by superior EPS growth vs peers. BUY rating reflects ~8% price appreciation plus 2.7% yield. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "EquityAnalyst-NI-2026", "risks": [ "Regulatory lag in recovering capital expenditures.", "Rising interest rates increasing the cost of debt.", "Execution risk in large-scale renewable projects." ], "ticker": "NI", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady rate base growth and successful coal retirement.", "target_price": 52 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Higher interest rates and regulatory delays in Indiana.", "target_price": 43 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated renewable deployment and favorable rate settlements.", "target_price": 59 } }, "confidence": 0.72, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.065, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.07, "terminal_multiple": 19, "ebit_margin_target": 0.25 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Rate case approvals", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate shifts", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Renewable energy transition", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operational efficiency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation uses a blend of P/E multiple expansion and a Dividend Discount Model. Target price of $52 implies a 21.5x forward P/E, justified by superior EPS growth vs peers. BUY rating reflects ~8% price appreciation plus 2.7% yield. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 48.1, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Fully regulated revenue streams provide high visibility into future earnings and dividends.", "Aggressive capital plan focused on grid modernization and coal-to-renewables transition.", "Projected 6-8% annual EPS growth outpaces many large-cap utility peers.", "Significant valuation discount relative to book value suggests limited downside risk.", "Low correlation to broader equity markets provides excellent portfolio diversification benefits." ], "target_price_6m": 50, "target_price_12m": 52 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 19510, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:29.539Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2484, "outputTokens": 490, "costUsd": 0.010848 } }, { "id": "cmnr14p8p05czp6585erx7sk9", "runId": "cmnr14p8l05cyp658pk40tg5x", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"NI\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":48.1,\"target_price_6m\":49.4,\"target_price_12m\":50,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.63,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Regulated footprint supports visible earnings and dividend growth.\",\"Capex-led rate base expansion should sustain steady utility growth.\",\"Current valuation already discounts much of the near-term good news.\",\"High debt and negative free cash flow limit multiple expansion.\",\"Defensive qualities balance regulatory, weather, and execution risks.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Rate base growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Constructive regulation\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend yield support\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Lower funding costs\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Negative free cash flow\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Leverage/refinancing needs\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Safety capex execution\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Adverse rate-case outcomes\",\"Capex overruns or project delays\",\"Higher long-term interest rates\",\"Gas safety incidents\",\"Weaker customer demand\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.06,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.145,\"wacc\":0.067,\"terminal_multiple\":12.8},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":42,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Regulatory lag and higher rates compress the utility multiple.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":50,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Steady rate recovery and dividend support keep shares near fair value.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":58,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Constructive outcomes and lower yields justify a premium valuation.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Targets blend forward earnings and EV/EBITDA framing for a regulated utility; HOLD fits ~4% 12M price upside, below BUY threshold. Snapshot quote/fundamentals were retained despite minor internal metric inconsistencies. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation", "risks": [ "Adverse rate-case outcomes", "Capex overruns or project delays", "Higher long-term interest rates", "Gas safety incidents", "Weaker customer demand" ], "ticker": "NI", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady rate recovery and dividend support keep shares near fair value.", "target_price": 50 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Regulatory lag and higher rates compress the utility multiple.", "target_price": 42 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Constructive outcomes and lower yields justify a premium valuation.", "target_price": 58 } }, "confidence": 0.63, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.067, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 12.8, "ebit_margin_target": 0.145 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Rate base growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Constructive regulation", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend yield support", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Lower funding costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Negative free cash flow", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Leverage/refinancing needs", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Safety capex execution", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Targets blend forward earnings and EV/EBITDA framing for a regulated utility; HOLD fits ~4% 12M price upside, below BUY threshold. Snapshot quote/fundamentals were retained despite minor internal metric inconsistencies. not investment advice", "current_price": 48.1, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Regulated footprint supports visible earnings and dividend growth.", "Capex-led rate base expansion should sustain steady utility growth.", "Current valuation already discounts much of the near-term good news.", "High debt and negative free cash flow limit multiple expansion.", "Defensive qualities balance regulatory, weather, and execution risks." ], "target_price_6m": 49.4, "target_price_12m": 50 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0a77b0409b9882820069d75bc1f5bc8195b65280f1381e58c7", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 123633, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:29.539Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2393, "outputTokens": 3150, "costUsd": 0.048288 } }, { "id": "cmnr14p8p05d2p658cbum02mr", "runId": "cmnr14p8l05cyp658pk40tg5x", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Utility DCF Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"NI\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 48.1,\n \"target_price_6m\": 50.5,\n \"target_price_12m\": 54,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Regulated ops deliver stable earnings visibility\",\n \"Capex expands rate base and drives growth\",\n \"Low beta defensive play with dividend yield\",\n \"High debt and negative FCF raise leverage risk\",\n \"Valuation offers upside from regulatory support\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory approvals for rate hikes\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Infrastructure capex program\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Customer demand and base growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Energy transition initiatives\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"High debt servicing costs\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Rising interest rate impact\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Weather-driven demand volatility\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory lag or disallowance\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Regulatory delays in cost recovery\",\n \"Rising financing costs from debt\",\n \"Reduced gas demand from renewables\",\n \"Adverse rate case outcomes\",\n \"Capex execution and cost overruns\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.06,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.15,\n \"wacc\": 0.057,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 14.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 43,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Higher rates delay capex recovery and compress multiples.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 54,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Steady execution on capex plan with approved returns.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 63,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated growth from favorable regulations and demand.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF valuation using rate base growth, target margins, WACC 5.7% and terminal multiple. Prob-weighted scenarios yield ~11% expected return supporting BUY. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Utility DCF Model", "risks": [ "Regulatory delays in cost recovery", "Rising financing costs from debt", "Reduced gas demand from renewables", "Adverse rate case outcomes", "Capex execution and cost overruns" ], "ticker": "NI", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady execution on capex plan with approved returns.", "target_price": 54 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Higher rates delay capex recovery and compress multiples.", "target_price": 43 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Accelerated growth from favorable regulations and demand.", "target_price": 63 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.057, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 14.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.15 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Regulatory approvals for rate hikes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Infrastructure capex program", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Customer demand and base growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Energy transition initiatives", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "High debt servicing costs", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Rising interest rate impact", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Weather-driven demand volatility", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory lag or disallowance", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF valuation using rate base growth, target margins, WACC 5.7% and terminal multiple. 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