{ "run": { "id": "cmnr14odd05aup658di7i7v9v", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr14ocq05ajp658wltbo92q", "ticker": "NDAQ", "snapshotId": "cmnr14ocz05anp658xm9pv6nn", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:28.415Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr14ocz05anp658xm9pv6nn", "assetId": "cmnr14ocq05ajp658wltbo92q", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z", "open": null, "price": 88.09, "dayLow": 87.747, "volume": 3332023, "dayHigh": 88.99, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 86.4, "week52Low": 65.7, "week52High": 101.79 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 31.1314102564103, "beta": 0.848699493152773, "epsTTM": 3.12, "fcfTTM": 1488000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.6082474226804124, "revenueYoy": 0.1164864864864865 }, "sector": "Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services", "margins": { "net": 0.2164124909222948, "gross": 0.6353183248608085, "operating": 0.2821350762527233 }, "website": "https://www.nasdaq.com/", "industry": "Financial services", "pegRatio": 0.511821490656236, "ebitdaTTM": 3160000000, "forwardPe": 25.6279683377309, "marketCap": 40600000000, "totalCash": 604000000, "totalDebt": 9004000000, "debtEquity": 0.736403042447043, "quickRatio": 0.2141690742369049, "revenueTTM": 8262000000, "companyName": "NASDAQ, INC.", "priceToBook": 4.55203778848921, "currentRatio": 1.005275719130762, "dividendYield": 0.0107937198281927, "returnOnAssets": 0.05757897787653367, "returnOnEquity": 0.146233744990595, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Nasdaq, Inc. is an American multinational financial services corporation providing data, analytics, software, exchange capabilities, and advisory services to corporate clients, investment managers, banks, brokers, and exchange operators across the global financial system. Nasdaq was founded in 1971 as the world's first electronic stock market, and became publicly traded in 2000. It is headquartered in New York City, and its chair and chief executive officer is Adena Friedman.", "enterpriseValue": 64080526228.8, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 9162, "sharesOutstanding": 568443856, "enterpriseToEbitda": 20.27864754075949, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 7.756054978068264, "operatingCashflowTTM": 2255000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:28.403Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr14odg05awp658gqc1rxnt", "runId": "cmnr14odd05aup658di7i7v9v", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Equity Research Model v1.0\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"NDAQ\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":88.09,\"target_price_6m\":92.5,\"target_price_12m\":96,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Adenza integration driving recurring revenue growth and margin expansion\",\"Solutions segments shifting mix toward higher-margin technology/data revenue\",\"Strong EPS growth of 60% YoY signals operating leverage materializing\",\"PEG ratio of 0.51 suggests growth underpriced relative to earnings multiple\",\"Elevated leverage from Adenza deal constrains near-term capital flexibility\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Recurring revenue growth from data, analytics, and anti-financial-crime solutions\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Adenza integration synergies improving operating margins\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Market services revenue tied to trading volumes and volatility\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Elevated debt ($9B) from acquisitions limiting buybacks\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Index licensing and listing fees benefit from equity market health\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Competitive pressure in exchange technology from cloud-native entrants\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory changes around market structure and data fees\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest rate environment affecting fintech client budgets\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Adenza integration delays or failure to achieve projected synergies\",\"Debt-heavy balance sheet vulnerable in a credit tightening scenario\",\"Cyclical downturn in capital markets reducing trading and listing revenue\",\"Regulatory risk on exchange data pricing and market structure reforms\",\"Multiple compression if growth deceleration materializes\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.09,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.32,\"wacc\":0.085,\"terminal_multiple\":22},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":78,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Integration stumbles, market slowdown compresses PE to ~23x forward EPS.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":96,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Steady solutions growth, margin expansion to ~30%, PE ~27x forward EPS ~$3.55.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":112,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Accelerating solutions adoption, synergy beat, PE re-rates to ~30x on platform premium.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Valuation anchored on forward PE (25.6x snapshot) with EPS growth of ~10-12% projected. Base 12M target uses ~27x forward EPS of ~$3.55, reflecting moderate PE expansion on continued solutions mix shift. EV/EBITDA crosscheck at ~20x supports reasonable valuation. Expected 12M return ~9% supports BUY. PEG of 0.51 is attractive but offset by leverage risk. 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Base 12M target uses ~27x forward EPS of ~$3.55, reflecting moderate PE expansion on continued solutions mix shift. EV/EBITDA crosscheck at ~20x supports reasonable valuation. Expected 12M return ~9% supports BUY. PEG of 0.51 is attractive but offset by leverage risk. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 88.09, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Adenza integration driving recurring revenue growth and margin expansion", "Solutions segments shifting mix toward higher-margin technology/data revenue", "Strong EPS growth of 60% YoY signals operating leverage materializing", "PEG ratio of 0.51 suggests growth underpriced relative to earnings multiple", "Elevated leverage from Adenza deal constrains near-term capital flexibility" ], "target_price_6m": 92.5, "target_price_12m": 96 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 30609, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:28.415Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3629, "outputTokens": 1471, "costUsd": 0.05492 } }, { "id": "cmnr14odg05azp658tzi61dif", "runId": "cmnr14odd05aup658di7i7v9v", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"DCF with Exit Multiple\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"NDAQ\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 88.09,\n \"target_price_6m\": 92,\n \"target_price_12m\": 95,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong revenue growth in data and analytics.\",\n \"High and improving operating margins.\",\n \"Market leadership in exchange services.\",\n \"Robust EPS growth supporting valuation.\",\n \"Balanced by regulatory and competitive risks.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Data and analytics revenue growth\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Exchange trading volume trends\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Cost efficiency and margin expansion\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory changes impacting operations\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competition from fintech and exchanges\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Technology and innovation investments\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Global market expansion opportunities\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Interest rate sensitivity\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Increased competition in fintech and data services.\",\n \"Regulatory scrutiny and compliance costs.\",\n \"Economic downturn reducing trading volumes.\",\n \"Cybersecurity and operational risks.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.12,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.3,\n \"wacc\": 0.08,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 16\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 80, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Economic slowdown and regulatory hurdles pressure earnings.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 95, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Steady growth in core businesses drives moderate upside.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 110, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Accelerated adoption of analytics and market share gains.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF valuation using assumed growth, margins, and terminal multiple. 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Not investment advice.", "current_price": 88.09, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong revenue growth in data and analytics.", "High and improving operating margins.", "Market leadership in exchange services.", "Robust EPS growth supporting valuation.", "Balanced by regulatory and competitive risks." ], "target_price_6m": 92, "target_price_12m": 95 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 445, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:28.415Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2139, "outputTokens": 4349, "costUsd": 0.002426 } }, { "id": "cmnr14odg05axp6586fdhtukt", "runId": "cmnr14odd05aup658di7i7v9v", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Equity Research Analyst AI\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"NDAQ\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 88.09,\n \"target_price_6m\": 93.50,\n \"target_price_12m\": 98.50,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.72,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strategic pivot toward high-margin recurring SaaS revenue reduces historical cyclicality.\",\n \"Successful Adenza integration drives significant cross-selling and synergy realization.\",\n \"Dominant market position in US listings and high-demand index products.\",\n \"Strong operating leverage enables EPS growth to outpace revenue expansion.\",\n \"Attractive valuation with a PEG ratio of 0.51 relative to peers.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"SaaS Revenue Mix\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"IPO Market Recovery\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Adenza Synergy Realization\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory Fee Scrutiny\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Index Licensing Demand\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest Rate Volatility\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"High leverage levels following major fintech acquisitions.\",\n \"Increased regulatory pressure on market data and connectivity fees.\",\n \"Intense competition from alternative trading venues and dark pools.\",\n \"Macroeconomic slowdown impacting listing volumes and corporate services.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.085,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.32,\n \"wacc\": 0.082,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 18.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 74.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Regulatory caps on data fees and prolonged IPO drought.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 98.50,\n \"prob\": 0.60,\n \"notes\": \"Steady SaaS growth and successful integration of financial technology segments.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 112.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Rapid expansion of Axioma/Adenza and surge in tech IPO activity.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a 10-year DCF and forward P/E multiple of 28x. Recommendation reflects an 11.8% expected 12M return, supported by strong PEG metrics and SaaS transition. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z", "model": "Equity Research Analyst AI", "risks": [ "High leverage levels following major fintech acquisitions.", "Increased regulatory pressure on market data and connectivity fees.", "Intense competition from alternative trading venues and dark pools.", "Macroeconomic slowdown impacting listing volumes and corporate services." ], "ticker": "NDAQ", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady SaaS growth and successful integration of financial technology segments.", "target_price": 98.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Regulatory caps on data fees and prolonged IPO drought.", "target_price": 74 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Rapid expansion of Axioma/Adenza and surge in tech IPO activity.", "target_price": 112 } }, "confidence": 0.72, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.082, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.085, "terminal_multiple": 18.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.32 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "SaaS Revenue Mix", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "IPO Market Recovery", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Adenza Synergy Realization", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory Fee Scrutiny", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Index Licensing Demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest Rate Volatility", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a 10-year DCF and forward P/E multiple of 28x. 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Not investment advice.", "current_price": 88.09, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strategic pivot toward high-margin recurring SaaS revenue reduces historical cyclicality.", "Successful Adenza integration drives significant cross-selling and synergy realization.", "Dominant market position in US listings and high-demand index products.", "Strong operating leverage enables EPS growth to outpace revenue expansion.", "Attractive valuation with a PEG ratio of 0.51 relative to peers." ], "target_price_6m": 93.5, "target_price_12m": 98.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 9857, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:28.415Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2493, "outputTokens": 796, "costUsd": 0.014538 } }, { "id": "cmnr14odg05avp658mrsa4qzu", "runId": "cmnr14odd05aup658di7i7v9v", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"gpt-5\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"NDAQ\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":88.09,\"target_price_6m\":90.5,\"target_price_12m\":92,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.64,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Recurring index, data, and workflow revenues improve resilience versus pure transaction venues.\",\"Double-digit revenue growth supports steady compounding, but recent EPS growth likely overstates run-rate.\",\"Forward P/E above 25x limits rerating upside despite quality and strong cash generation.\",\"Adenza integration can expand software mix, yet leverage and execution risk remain material.\",\"Risk/reward looks balanced near fair value, supporting a HOLD stance.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Recurring solutions mix\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Market activity and listings\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Adenza cross-sell and synergies\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Margin expansion discipline\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Debt reduction pace\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Valuation multiple ceiling\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory or technology incidents\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Lower trading and listings activity\",\"Adenza integration delays or weaker synergies\",\"Higher rates or refinancing pressure\",\"Regulatory or cyber incidents\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.075,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.31,\"wacc\":0.082,\"terminal_multiple\":18.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":74,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Integration slips and capital-markets activity softens, pressuring margins and multiples.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":92,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Recurring revenues offset softer markets; modest deleveraging supports fair value.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":108,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Strong cross-sell, better listings cycle, and margin gains sustain a premium multiple.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended valuation using snapshot-based earnings context and EV/EBIT discipline with listed assumptions. Snapshot fields were kept authoritative; no sell-side targets used. HOLD matches only ~4% 12M upside, with quality growth offset by rich valuation and leverage; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z", "model": "gpt-5", "risks": [ "Lower trading and listings activity", "Adenza integration delays or weaker synergies", "Higher rates or refinancing pressure", "Regulatory or cyber incidents" ], "ticker": "NDAQ", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Recurring revenues offset softer markets; modest deleveraging supports fair value.", "target_price": 92 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Integration slips and capital-markets activity softens, pressuring margins and multiples.", "target_price": 74 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong cross-sell, better listings cycle, and margin gains sustain a premium multiple.", "target_price": 108 } }, "confidence": 0.64, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.082, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.075, "terminal_multiple": 18.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.31 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Recurring solutions mix", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Market activity and listings", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Adenza cross-sell and synergies", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Margin expansion discipline", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt reduction pace", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Valuation multiple ceiling", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory or technology incidents", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended valuation using snapshot-based earnings context and EV/EBIT discipline with listed assumptions. 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