{ "run": { "id": "cmnr14m7o055up658tf76plck", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr14m78055qp6589ecm3iti", "ticker": "MPC", "snapshotId": "cmnr14m7g055sp658f4v4rd56", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:25.617Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr14m7g055sp658f4v4rd56", "assetId": "cmnr14m78055qp6589ecm3iti", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "open": null, "price": 231.98, "dayLow": 228.056, "volume": 2391451, "dayHigh": 233.56, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 245.42, "week52Low": 115.42, "week52High": 255.77 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": -2.73364177131527, "beta": 1.58021474598655, "epsTTM": -15.13, "fcfTTM": 5624000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.3095944609297726, "revenueYoy": -0.04439595575527135 }, "sector": "Petroleum Refining", "margins": { "net": 0.0304975922953451, "gross": null, "operating": 0.06247974739824716 }, "website": "https://www.marathonpetroleum.com/", "industry": "Petroleum", "pegRatio": 0.0057159263383487, "ebitdaTTM": -5168000000, "forwardPe": 44.9565217391304, "marketCap": 50600000000, "totalCash": 3672000000, "totalDebt": 32876000000, "debtEquity": 1.42276679129691, "quickRatio": 0.7108954162008334, "revenueTTM": 132699000000, "companyName": "Marathon Petroleum Corp", "priceToBook": 0.888240900066181, "currentRatio": 1.259274316495579, "dividendYield": 0.0564027979364176, "returnOnAssets": 0.04820439521172056, "returnOnEquity": -0.442632551015812, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Marathon Petroleum Corporation is an American petroleum refining, marketing, and transportation company headquartered in Findlay, Ohio. The company was a wholly owned subsidiary of Marathon Oil until a corporate spin-off in 2011.", "enterpriseValue": 58011640000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 18300, "sharesOutstanding": 294740164, "enterpriseToEbitda": -11.22516253869969, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 0.4371671225857015, "operatingCashflowTTM": 8253000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:25.613Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr14m7q055wp6587dblbj9x", "runId": "cmnr14m7o055up658tf76plck", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"MPC\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":231.98,\"target_price_6m\":237,\"target_price_12m\":245,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.52,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Negative TTM EBITDA driven by impairments masks underlying cash generation\",\"FCF yield of ~11% attractive but reflects cyclical peak cash flows\",\"Refining margin environment weakening with crack spreads under pressure\",\"MPLX stake provides stable midstream cash flow stream\",\"High leverage (D/E 1.42) limits financial flexibility in a downturn\",\"Below book value (P/B 0.89) offers modest valuation floor\",\"5.6% dividend yield provides income support during downcycle\",\"Forward PE of ~45 implies market expects sharp earnings decline\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Crack spread and refining margin cycle\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"MPLX midstream distribution income\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Share buyback program pace\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Crude oil price volatility\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Capacity utilization and throughput volumes\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Debt maturity profile and refinancing risk\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Renewable diesel and low-carbon investments\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Macro demand environment (recession risk)\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend sustainability given negative earnings\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Prolonged crack spread compression below mid-cycle levels\",\"Recession-driven demand destruction for refined products\",\"Impairment charges continue eroding book value\",\"Dividend cut if FCF deteriorates significantly\",\"Regulatory tightening on refining emissions and operations\",\"Refinancing risk on $32.9B debt load in higher-rate environment\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":-0.02,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.055,\"wacc\":0.10,\"terminal_multiple\":5.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":180,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Crack spreads stay depressed; recession reduces throughput; dividend at risk.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":245,\"prob\":0.50,\"notes\":\"Moderate margin recovery; MPLX stable; buybacks support EPS normalization.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":290,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Strong crack spread rebound; aggressive buybacks; MPLX growth accelerates.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Mid-cycle normalized EV/EBITDA (5x) and FCF yield framework for cyclical refiner. Negative TTM EBITDA from impairments; core ops generated $8.3B operating CF. Forward PE ~45 signals trough earnings expectations. 12M base target ~$245 implies ~5.6% return, consistent with HOLD given high uncertainty on margin cycle. Weighted scenario price ~$240 aligns. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Prolonged crack spread compression below mid-cycle levels", "Recession-driven demand destruction for refined products", "Impairment charges continue eroding book value", "Dividend cut if FCF deteriorates significantly", "Regulatory tightening on refining emissions and operations", "Refinancing risk on $32.9B debt load in higher-rate environment" ], "ticker": "MPC", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate margin recovery; MPLX stable; buybacks support EPS normalization.", "target_price": 245 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Crack spreads stay depressed; recession reduces throughput; dividend at risk.", "target_price": 180 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong crack spread rebound; aggressive buybacks; MPLX growth accelerates.", "target_price": 290 } }, "confidence": 0.52, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.1, "revenue_cagr_3y": -0.02, "terminal_multiple": 5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.055 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Crack spread and refining margin cycle", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "MPLX midstream distribution income", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Share buyback program pace", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Crude oil price volatility", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Capacity utilization and throughput volumes", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt maturity profile and refinancing risk", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Renewable diesel and low-carbon investments", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macro demand environment (recession risk)", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend sustainability given negative earnings", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Mid-cycle normalized EV/EBITDA (5x) and FCF yield framework for cyclical refiner. Negative TTM EBITDA from impairments; core ops generated $8.3B operating CF. Forward PE ~45 signals trough earnings expectations. 12M base target ~$245 implies ~5.6% return, consistent with HOLD given high uncertainty on margin cycle. Weighted scenario price ~$240 aligns. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 231.98, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Negative TTM EBITDA driven by impairments masks underlying cash generation", "FCF yield of ~11% attractive but reflects cyclical peak cash flows", "Refining margin environment weakening with crack spreads under pressure", "MPLX stake provides stable midstream cash flow stream", "High leverage (D/E 1.42) limits financial flexibility in a downturn", "Below book value (P/B 0.89) offers modest valuation floor", "5.6% dividend yield provides income support during downcycle", "Forward PE of ~45 implies market expects sharp earnings decline" ], "target_price_6m": 237, "target_price_12m": 245 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 40190, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:25.617Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3563, "outputTokens": 1700, "costUsd": 0.060315 } }, { "id": "cmnr14m7q055zp658vtc3f62n", "runId": "cmnr14m7o055up658tf76plck", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Analyst\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"MPC\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 231.98,\n \"target_price_6m\": 235.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 240.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Cyclical refining margins offer upside potential.\",\n \"Strong operating cash flow supports financial stability.\",\n \"High debt levels increase vulnerability to downturns.\",\n \"Long-term energy shift pressures future profitability.\",\n \"Current valuation reflects balanced risk-reward profile.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Global economic growth\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Refining crack spread trends\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Operational efficiency gains\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Dividend yield sustainability\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt servicing costs\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Environmental regulatory pressures\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Crude oil price volatility\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competitive pricing pressure\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Oil price volatility impacting margins\",\n \"Economic downturn reducing fuel demand\",\n \"Increased environmental regulations\",\n \"High financial leverage\",\n \"Energy transition disruptions\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.01,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.065,\n \"wacc\": 0.08,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 7.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 210.0, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Severe margin compression and demand drop.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 240.0, \"prob\": 0.5, \"notes\": \"Moderate recovery with stable operations.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 270.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong margin expansion and cost savings.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation using DCF with cycle-normalized assumptions; HOLD as expected return ~2%. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Analyst", "risks": [ "Oil price volatility impacting margins", "Economic downturn reducing fuel demand", "Increased environmental regulations", "High financial leverage", "Energy transition disruptions" ], "ticker": "MPC", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate recovery with stable operations.", "target_price": 240 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Severe margin compression and demand drop.", "target_price": 210 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong margin expansion and cost savings.", "target_price": 270 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.08, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.01, "terminal_multiple": 7.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.065 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Global economic growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Refining crack spread trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operational efficiency gains", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend yield sustainability", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt servicing costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Environmental regulatory pressures", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Crude oil price volatility", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competitive pricing pressure", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation using DCF with cycle-normalized assumptions; HOLD as expected return ~2%. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 231.98, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Cyclical refining margins offer upside potential.", "Strong operating cash flow supports financial stability.", "High debt levels increase vulnerability to downturns.", "Long-term energy shift pressures future profitability.", "Current valuation reflects balanced risk-reward profile." ], "target_price_6m": 235, "target_price_12m": 240 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [ { "error": "sanity_error: buy_scenario_return_too_low: BUY requires >= 6% return from probability-weighted scenarios.", "attempt": 0, "rawOutputTruncated": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Analyst\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"MPC\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 231.98,\n \"target_price_6m\": 240.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 250.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Steady revenue growth from refining operations.\",\n \"Margin 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significant near-term earnings pressure from normalizing crack spreads.\",\n \"High debt load of $32.8B requires disciplined capital allocation amid margin volatility.\",\n \"Balanced risk/reward profile at current valuation levels warrants a neutral Hold rating.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"US Gulf Coast crack spreads\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Global refining capacity additions\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Domestic gasoline and distillate demand\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Share repurchases and dividend growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Crude oil price differentials (WTI vs Brent)\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory costs and RINs pricing\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Accelerated EV adoption reducing long-term structural fuel demand.\",\n \"Macroeconomic slowdown leading to weaker commercial and consumer transportation.\",\n \"Unplanned refinery outages impacting utilization and short-term cash flow.\",\n \"Adverse regulatory changes regarding emissions and renewable fuel standards.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": -0.025,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.055,\n \"wacc\": 0.095,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 6.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 180.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Crack spreads collapse below mid-cycle levels and recessionary pressures destroy demand.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 240.00,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Mid-cycle margins persist, allowing steady cash generation and dividend coverage.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 280.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Refining capacity remains structurally tight, driving sustained margin expansion and buybacks.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a blend of mid-cycle EV/EBITDA (6.5x) and P/B support. Near-term earnings pressure offsets strong FCF and yield, resulting in a ~3.5% upside and a HOLD recommendation. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch_Cyclical_Refining", "risks": [ "Accelerated EV adoption reducing long-term structural fuel demand.", "Macroeconomic slowdown leading to weaker commercial and consumer transportation.", "Unplanned refinery outages impacting utilization and short-term cash flow.", "Adverse regulatory changes regarding emissions and renewable fuel standards." ], "ticker": "MPC", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Mid-cycle margins persist, allowing steady cash generation and dividend coverage.", "target_price": 240 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Crack spreads collapse below mid-cycle levels and recessionary pressures destroy demand.", "target_price": 180 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Refining capacity remains structurally tight, driving sustained margin expansion and buybacks.", "target_price": 280 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": -0.025, "terminal_multiple": 6.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.055 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "US Gulf Coast crack spreads", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Global refining capacity additions", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Domestic gasoline and distillate demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Share repurchases and dividend growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Crude oil price differentials (WTI vs Brent)", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory costs and RINs pricing", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a blend of mid-cycle EV/EBITDA (6.5x) and P/B support. Near-term earnings pressure offsets strong FCF and yield, resulting in a ~3.5% upside and a HOLD recommendation. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 231.98, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong FCF generation of $5.6B supports the highly attractive 5.6% dividend yield.", "Trading at 0.89x book value provides a solid margin of safety against cyclical downturns.", "Forward P/E of 45x suggests significant near-term earnings pressure from normalizing crack spreads.", "High debt load of $32.8B requires disciplined capital allocation amid margin volatility.", "Balanced risk/reward profile at current valuation levels warrants a neutral Hold rating." ], "target_price_6m": 235, "target_price_12m": 240 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 26245, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:25.617Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2434, "outputTokens": 864, "costUsd": 0.015236 } }, { "id": "cmnr14m7q055vp658nq070a58", "runId": "cmnr14m7o055up658tf76plck", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"gpt-5\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"MPC\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":231.98,\"target_price_6m\":238,\"target_price_12m\":245,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.64,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"MPLX and retail cash flows cushion refining cyclicality.\",\"Positive FCF supports dividends and ongoing share reduction.\",\"Valuation looks reasonable on book and revenue multiples.\",\"Recent losses and negative EBITDA show volatile cycle conditions.\",\"Upside exists, but near-cycle uncertainty limits risk-reward.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Refining crack spread normalization\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"MPLX fee-based earnings stability\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Share repurchases and dividend yield\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Fuel demand and export volumes\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Turnarounds and unplanned downtime\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Debt load and working-capital swings\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory and renewable fuel costs\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Asset optimization and cost control\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Refining margins stay depressed longer.\",\"Recession weakens gasoline and distillate demand.\",\"Operational outages hit utilization and cash flow.\",\"Policy changes raise compliance costs.\",\"Balance-sheet leverage reduces flexibility.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.02,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.055,\"wacc\":0.095,\"terminal_multiple\":6.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":180,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Margins remain weak and utilization disappoints.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":245,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Normalized margins and steady midstream cash support modest upside.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":295,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Crack spreads recover sharply and buybacks accelerate.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended cyclical earnings-power and SOTP framing using snapshot fundamentals; no sell-side targets used. Snapshot quote fields kept authoritative. HOLD fits ~5.6% 12M upside with mixed refining signals and leverage. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "gpt-5", "risks": [ "Refining margins stay depressed longer.", "Recession weakens gasoline and distillate demand.", "Operational outages hit utilization and cash flow.", "Policy changes raise compliance costs.", "Balance-sheet leverage reduces flexibility." ], "ticker": "MPC", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Normalized margins and steady midstream cash support modest upside.", "target_price": 245 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Margins remain weak and utilization disappoints.", "target_price": 180 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Crack spreads recover sharply and buybacks accelerate.", "target_price": 295 } }, "confidence": 0.64, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.02, "terminal_multiple": 6.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.055 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Refining crack spread normalization", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "MPLX fee-based earnings stability", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Share repurchases and dividend yield", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fuel demand and export volumes", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Turnarounds and unplanned downtime", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt load and working-capital swings", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory and renewable fuel costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Asset optimization and cost control", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Blended cyclical earnings-power and SOTP framing using snapshot fundamentals; no sell-side targets used. Snapshot quote fields kept authoritative. HOLD fits ~5.6% 12M upside with mixed refining signals and leverage. not investment advice", "current_price": 231.98, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "MPLX and retail cash flows cushion refining cyclicality.", "Positive FCF supports dividends and ongoing share reduction.", "Valuation looks reasonable on book and revenue multiples.", "Recent losses and negative EBITDA show volatile cycle conditions.", "Upside exists, but near-cycle uncertainty limits risk-reward." ], "target_price_6m": 238, "target_price_12m": 245 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0820bd96c80f13540069d75b6a79b48196a9c55c61ad5ef3e3", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 18115, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:25.617Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2346, "outputTokens": 1019, "costUsd": 0.018371 } }, { "id": "cmnr14m7q055yp658nxir73fd", "runId": "cmnr14m7o055up658tf76plck", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Normalized DCF Valuation\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"MPC\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 231.98,\n \"target_price_6m\": 250,\n \"target_price_12m\": 270,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong FCF despite accounting losses from impairments\",\n \"Attractive 5.6% dividend yield supports returns\",\n \"Trades at discount to book value with solid ops\",\n \"Refining margins volatile and cyclical in nature\",\n \"Debt burden manageable via robust cash generation\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Refining crack spread recovery\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Global fuel demand growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Crude price volatility\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Shareholder capital returns\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Environmental compliance costs\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operational efficiency gains\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Economic slowdown risk\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Debt reduction progress\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged weak crack spreads compressing margins\",\n \"Elevated debt increasing interest burden\",\n \"Potential further non-cash asset impairments\",\n \"Long-term shift away from fossil fuels\",\n \"Geopolitical disruptions to supply chains\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.02,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.08,\n \"wacc\": 0.095,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 8\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 185,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Persistent low margins and recession hit FCF.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 270,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Margins normalize with steady cash flows.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 340,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"High utilization and strong demand surge profits.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF using 2% rev CAGR, 8% target EBIT margin, 9.5% WACC and 8x terminal multiple on normalized EBIT. 16% implied upside consistent with BUY. Snapshot data used as baseline. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "Normalized DCF Valuation", "risks": [ "Prolonged weak crack spreads compressing margins", "Elevated debt increasing interest burden", "Potential further non-cash asset impairments", "Long-term shift away from fossil fuels", "Geopolitical disruptions to supply chains" ], "ticker": "MPC", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Margins normalize with steady cash flows.", "target_price": 270 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Persistent low margins and recession hit FCF.", "target_price": 185 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "High utilization and strong demand surge profits.", "target_price": 340 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.02, "terminal_multiple": 8, "ebit_margin_target": 0.08 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Refining crack spread recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Global fuel demand growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Crude price volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Shareholder capital returns", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Environmental compliance costs", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operational efficiency gains", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Economic slowdown risk", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt reduction progress", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "DCF using 2% rev CAGR, 8% target EBIT margin, 9.5% WACC and 8x terminal multiple on normalized EBIT. 16% implied upside consistent with BUY. Snapshot data used as baseline. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 231.98, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong FCF despite accounting losses from impairments", "Attractive 5.6% dividend yield supports returns", "Trades at discount to book value with solid ops", "Refining margins volatile and cyclical in nature", "Debt burden manageable via robust cash generation" ], "target_price_6m": 250, "target_price_12m": 270 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "73d710a7-2334-9420-898b-595781570fe7", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 16561, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:25.617Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2687, "outputTokens": 3089, "costUsd": 0.054396 } } ] } }