{ "run": { "id": "cmnr14ldl054op658o0jhfq6y", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr14lcx054kp658pr69jkki", "ticker": "MNST", "snapshotId": "cmnr14ld6054mp6580zmnrnp2", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:24.534Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr14ld6054mp6580zmnrnp2", "assetId": "cmnr14lcx054kp658pr69jkki", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "open": null, "price": 75.14, "dayLow": 74.065, "volume": 5478336, "dayHigh": 75.63, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 72.44, "week52Low": 54.73, "week52High": 87.38 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 39.3179487179487, "beta": 0.620830115330676, "epsTTM": 1.95, "fcfTTM": 1949216000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.3, "revenueYoy": 0.106988540459799 }, "sector": "Bottled & Canned Soft Drinks & Carbonated Waters", "margins": { "net": 0.2297266944470466, "gross": 0.5584764218214752, "operating": 0.2916872379162521 }, "website": "http://www.monsterbevcorp.com/", "industry": null, "pegRatio": 1.31059829059829, "ebitdaTTM": 2569991000, "forwardPe": 33.4803493449782, "marketCap": 56505471480, "totalCash": 1903419000, "totalDebt": 199059000, "debtEquity": 0.03053314863441471, "quickRatio": 3.215990115533677, "revenueTTM": 8294343000, "companyName": "Monster Beverage Corp", "priceToBook": 8.76007620623182, "currentRatio": 3.37486871173054, "dividendYield": null, "returnOnAssets": 0.2316063589427434, "returnOnEquity": 0.230846506975678, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Monster Beverage Corporation is an American beverage company that manufactures energy drinks including Monster Energy, Relentless, Reign and Burn. The company was originally founded as Hansen's in 1935 in Southern California, originally selling juice products. The company renamed itself as Monster Beverage in 2012.", "enterpriseValue": null, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 6558, "sharesOutstanding": 978270734, "enterpriseToEbitda": null, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": null, "operatingCashflowTTM": 2098177000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:24.522Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr14ldn054qp6581gx3bzbq", "runId": "cmnr14ldl054op658o0jhfq6y", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"MNST\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":75.14,\"target_price_6m\":76.0,\"target_price_12m\":77.0,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.6,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Premium ~39x P/E valuation limits near-term upside potential\",\"Strong 30% EPS YoY growth from margin expansion and buybacks\",\"International expansion via Coca-Cola distribution is key secular driver\",\"Energy drink category faces rising competition from Celsius and others\",\"Fortress balance sheet with $1.9B cash and negligible debt\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"International revenue growth through Coca-Cola bottler network\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Energy drink category secular growth tailwinds\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Gross margin stability around 56% supports profitability\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Share repurchase program enhancing EPS growth\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Rising competition from Celsius, Alani Nu, and private label\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Premium P/E multiple creates vulnerability to earnings misses\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Potential regulatory scrutiny on energy drink ingredients\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Consumer discretionary spending pressure from macro uncertainty\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"P/E multiple compression if revenue growth decelerates below high-single digits\",\"Increased competitive intensity eroding North American market share\",\"FX headwinds from dollar strength impacting international earnings\",\"Regulatory actions targeting caffeine content or marketing to younger demographics\",\"Input cost inflation compressing gross margins\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.085,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.30,\"wacc\":0.09,\"terminal_multiple\":32.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":63.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Revenue growth stalls, multiple compresses to ~30x on competitive concerns.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":77.0,\"prob\":0.50,\"notes\":\"Mid-single-digit revenue growth sustains current multiples with modest EPS uplift.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":88.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Accelerating international growth and buybacks drive EPS upside, multiple re-rates higher.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended valuation using forward P/E (33.5x on ~$2.30 FY EPS est) and DCF crosscheck (9% WACC, 32x terminal). 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Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "P/E multiple compression if revenue growth decelerates below high-single digits", "Increased competitive intensity eroding North American market share", "FX headwinds from dollar strength impacting international earnings", "Regulatory actions targeting caffeine content or marketing to younger demographics", "Input cost inflation compressing gross margins" ], "ticker": "MNST", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Mid-single-digit revenue growth sustains current multiples with modest EPS uplift.", "target_price": 77 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Revenue growth stalls, multiple compresses to ~30x on competitive concerns.", "target_price": 63 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Accelerating international growth and buybacks drive EPS upside, multiple re-rates higher.", "target_price": 88 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.085, "terminal_multiple": 32, "ebit_margin_target": 0.3 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "International revenue growth through Coca-Cola bottler network", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Energy drink category secular growth tailwinds", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Gross margin stability around 56% supports profitability", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Share repurchase program enhancing EPS growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Rising competition from Celsius, Alani Nu, and private label", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Premium P/E multiple creates vulnerability to earnings misses", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Potential regulatory scrutiny on energy drink ingredients", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Consumer discretionary spending pressure from macro uncertainty", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended valuation using forward P/E (33.5x on ~$2.30 FY EPS est) and DCF crosscheck (9% WACC, 32x terminal). 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Recommendation reflects ~11% upside, supported by strong FCF and market leadership. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "Equity Research Analyst AI", "risks": [ "Increasing competition from lifestyle energy brands like Celsius.", "Regulatory scrutiny on high-caffeine beverages and labeling.", "Fluctuations in aluminum and packaging costs impacting gross margins.", "Potential slowdown in US consumer discretionary spending." ], "ticker": "MNST", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady international growth and stable margins in line with historical trends.", "target_price": 83.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Increased competition leads to market share loss and margin compression.", "target_price": 64 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated global expansion and successful launch of new product categories.", "target_price": 96 } }, "confidence": 0.72, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.082, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.11, "terminal_multiple": 28, "ebit_margin_target": 0.295 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "International volume growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Input cost stabilization", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "New product innovation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Market share vs Celsius", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "FX headwinds", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Consumer spending trends", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a 35x forward P/E multiple on FY27 EPS estimates. 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Not investment advice.", "current_price": 75.14, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Dominant market share in the resilient and growing global energy drink category.", "Robust international expansion strategy driving double-digit top-line growth across emerging markets.", "Best-in-class profitability with operating margins consistently exceeding 28% and strong FCF.", "Pristine balance sheet with minimal debt provides significant flexibility for M&A or buybacks.", "Strategic partnership with Coca-Cola optimizes distribution efficiency and global reach." ], "target_price_6m": 79.5, "target_price_12m": 83.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 10693, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:24.534Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2379, "outputTokens": 787, "costUsd": 0.014202 } }, { "id": "cmnr14ldn054pp658kp9sz3js", "runId": "cmnr14ldl054op658o0jhfq6y", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"OpenAI o3\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"MNST\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":75.14,\"target_price_6m\":77.8,\"target_price_12m\":79.0,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.66,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Monster combines double-digit revenue growth with category-leading operating margins.\",\"Net cash and strong free cash flow support resilience and optionality.\",\"Coca-Cola distribution alignment helps global execution and shelf presence.\",\"Valuation already discounts much of the quality, limiting rerating upside.\",\"Growth durability faces category competition, FX, and input-cost volatility.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Energy category volume growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"International expansion\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Price/mix realization\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Coca-Cola distribution leverage\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Gross margin stability\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Premium valuation compression\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Competitive intensity\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Input and FX costs\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Category slowdown or consumer downtrading\",\"Promotional pressure from Red Bull, Celsius, or private label\",\"Regulatory scrutiny on caffeine or marketing\",\"Commodity, aluminum, and FX volatility\",\"Execution risk in international markets\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.09,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.3,\"wacc\":0.085,\"terminal_multiple\":24},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":63.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Growth slows and the valuation premium compresses.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":79.0,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Steady mid-to-high single-digit growth supports modest appreciation.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":90.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"International momentum and margins beat, sustaining a premium multiple.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Base case uses snapshot fundamentals with a quality-premium earnings/EV-EBIT sanity check; no sell-side targets used. 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