{ "run": { "id": "cmnr14kn50534p658fvzl1x59", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr14klx0530p658qcsp31ed", "ticker": "MGM", "snapshotId": "cmnr14kmq0532p658l23hlff1", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:23.583Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr14kmq0532p658l23hlff1", "assetId": "cmnr14klx0530p658qcsp31ed", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "open": null, "price": 37.1, "dayLow": 37.03, "volume": 3600412, "dayHigh": 39.23, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 37.89, "week52Low": 25.3, "week52High": 40.16 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": -15.5990099009901, "beta": 1.69738472742607, "epsTTM": -2.02, "fcfTTM": 950265000, "growth": { "epsYoy": -0.6818181818181818, "revenueYoy": 0.01723483799381052 }, "sector": "Hotels & Motels", "margins": { "net": 0.0117382666798117, "gross": null, "operating": 0.05712157073428685 }, "website": "https://www.mgmresorts.com", "industry": null, "pegRatio": 0.10276374765855, "ebitdaTTM": 862755000, "forwardPe": -25.4112903225806, "marketCap": 5800000000, "totalCash": 2062994000, "totalDebt": 7380141000, "debtEquity": 1.90272180565331, "quickRatio": 0.907128968451132, "revenueTTM": 17537683000, "companyName": "MGM Resorts International", "priceToBook": 0.494388383858814, "currentRatio": 1.233568339461184, "dividendYield": 0.00648652973325812, "returnOnAssets": 0.00497566260916997, "returnOnEquity": -0.158765180885405, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "MGM Resorts International is an American multinational hospitality, sports and entertainment company. It operates resorts in Las Vegas, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Maryland, Ohio, New Jersey, Macau, Shanghai, Chengdu, Hangzhou and Sanya, including the Bellagio, Mandalay Bay, MGM Grand and Park MGM.", "enterpriseValue": 22845776520, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 63000, "sharesOutstanding": 255828519, "enterpriseToEbitda": 26.48002795695186, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 1.302667890621583, "operatingCashflowTTM": 2529378000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:23.570Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr14kn80536p658m7dsmqiy", "runId": "cmnr14kn50534p658fvzl1x59", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"MGM\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":37.1,\"target_price_6m\":39.5,\"target_price_12m\":42.0,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.58,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Strong FCF of ~$950M supports buybacks despite negative GAAP earnings\",\"Price-to-book of 0.49x signals deep discount to asset value\",\"High leverage at 1.9x D/E constrains financial flexibility\",\"Macau recovery and Las Vegas resilience provide dual growth vectors\",\"Share buyback program steadily reduces float, boosting per-share value\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Las Vegas Strip revenue stability and pricing power\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Macau gaming recovery trajectory post-normalization\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Aggressive share repurchase program\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"High debt burden ($7.4B) and interest expense drag\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Digital/BetMGM monetization progress\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Macro consumer spending sensitivity (beta 1.7)\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Potential margin recovery from current 5.7% operating margin\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Rising interest rates impact on leveraged balance sheet\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Consumer recession reduces discretionary gaming and travel spend\",\"Macau regulatory or geopolitical disruptions\",\"Debt refinancing risk in higher-rate environment\",\"BetMGM competitive losses to DraftKings/FanDuel\",\"Non-cash impairments mask underlying profitability trends\",\"Labor cost inflation in hospitality sector\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.03,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.10,\"wacc\":0.10,\"terminal_multiple\":8.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":28.0,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Consumer downturn, Macau stalls, leverage becomes critical headwind.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":42.0,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Gradual margin recovery, steady buybacks, moderate Macau growth.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":54.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Full Macau recovery, margin expansion to 10%+, accelerated deleveraging.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended valuation: FCF yield (~16% on market cap) anchors upside thesis; EV/EBITDA of 26.5x looks elevated but reflects non-cash impairments depressing EBITDA. Normalized EBITDA ~$3B implies EV/EBITDA ~7.6x, reasonable for gaming. P/B 0.49x provides asset floor. 12M target of $42 implies ~13% return, consistent with BUY. Confidence moderate due to conflicting signals (strong FCF vs negative EPS, high leverage). Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Consumer recession reduces discretionary gaming and travel spend", "Macau regulatory or geopolitical disruptions", "Debt refinancing risk in higher-rate environment", "BetMGM competitive losses to DraftKings/FanDuel", "Non-cash impairments mask underlying profitability trends", "Labor cost inflation in hospitality sector" ], "ticker": "MGM", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Gradual margin recovery, steady buybacks, moderate Macau growth.", "target_price": 42 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Consumer downturn, Macau stalls, leverage becomes critical headwind.", "target_price": 28 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Full Macau recovery, margin expansion to 10%+, accelerated deleveraging.", "target_price": 54 } }, "confidence": 0.58, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.1, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.03, "terminal_multiple": 8, "ebit_margin_target": 0.1 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Las Vegas Strip revenue stability and pricing power", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macau gaming recovery trajectory post-normalization", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Aggressive share repurchase program", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "High debt burden ($7.4B) and interest expense drag", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Digital/BetMGM monetization progress", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macro consumer spending sensitivity (beta 1.7)", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Potential margin recovery from current 5.7% operating margin", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Rising interest rates impact on leveraged balance sheet", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended valuation: FCF yield (~16% on market cap) anchors upside thesis; EV/EBITDA of 26.5x looks elevated but reflects non-cash impairments depressing EBITDA. Normalized EBITDA ~$3B implies EV/EBITDA ~7.6x, reasonable for gaming. P/B 0.49x provides asset floor. 12M target of $42 implies ~13% return, consistent with BUY. Confidence moderate due to conflicting signals (strong FCF vs negative EPS, high leverage). Not investment advice.", "current_price": 37.1, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong FCF of ~$950M supports buybacks despite negative GAAP earnings", "Price-to-book of 0.49x signals deep discount to asset value", "High leverage at 1.9x D/E constrains financial flexibility", "Macau recovery and Las Vegas resilience provide dual growth vectors", "Share buyback program steadily reduces float, boosting per-share value" ], "target_price_6m": 39.5, "target_price_12m": 42 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 32245, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:23.583Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3588, "outputTokens": 1560, "costUsd": 0.05694 } }, { "id": "cmnr14kn80539p658o805b2xs", "runId": "cmnr14kn50534p658fvzl1x59", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Analyst V1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"MGM\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 37.1,\n \"target_price_6m\": 38.5,\n \"target_price_12m\": 40.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Post-pandemic recovery in hospitality supports revenue.\",\n \"High debt burden constrains financial flexibility.\",\n \"Growth in digital and sports betting offers upside.\",\n \"Cost efficiencies could improve operating margins.\",\n \"Valuation appears reasonable with moderate upside.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Recovery in Las Vegas tourism\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"High debt and interest expense\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Expansion in online gaming\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory risks in Macau\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Cost control initiatives\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competitive industry pressure\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Economic downturn sensitivity\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Asset monetization opportunities\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"High leverage increases bankruptcy risk.\",\n \"Cyclical dependency on tourism and gaming.\",\n \"Regulatory changes in key markets.\",\n \"Operational disruptions from events or pandemics.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.03,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.06,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 12.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 35.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Weak recovery with margin pressure and higher costs.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 40.0, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Moderate recovery in gaming and cost improvements.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 45.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong rebound in tourism and successful digital expansion.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF valuation with normalized assumptions; target implies 7.8% 12M upside; mixed evidence supports BUY. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Analyst V1", "risks": [ "High leverage increases bankruptcy risk.", "Cyclical dependency on tourism and gaming.", "Regulatory changes in key markets.", "Operational disruptions from events or pandemics." ], "ticker": "MGM", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Moderate recovery in gaming and cost improvements.", "target_price": 40 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Weak recovery with margin pressure and higher costs.", "target_price": 35 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong rebound in tourism and successful digital expansion.", "target_price": 45 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.03, "terminal_multiple": 12, "ebit_margin_target": 0.06 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Recovery in Las Vegas tourism", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "High debt and interest expense", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Expansion in online gaming", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory risks in Macau", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Cost control initiatives", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive industry pressure", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Economic downturn sensitivity", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Asset monetization opportunities", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "DCF valuation with normalized assumptions; target implies 7.8% 12M upside; mixed evidence supports BUY. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 37.1, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Post-pandemic recovery in hospitality supports revenue.", "High debt burden constrains financial flexibility.", "Growth in digital and sports betting offers upside.", "Cost efficiencies could improve operating margins.", "Valuation appears reasonable with moderate upside." ], "target_price_6m": 38.5, "target_price_12m": 40 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 376, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:23.583Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2097, "outputTokens": 2691, "costUsd": 0.001717 } }, { "id": "cmnr14kn80537p658vompohhq", "runId": "cmnr14kn50534p658fvzl1x59", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"MGM_Equity_Valuation_SOTP\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"MGM\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 37.1,\n \"target_price_6m\": 39.5,\n \"target_price_12m\": 42.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Vegas strip revenues remain resilient despite tough year-over-year comparisons and macro uncertainty.\",\n \"BetMGM joint venture is inflecting toward sustained profitability and market share stabilization.\",\n \"Macau operations provide strong cash flow recovery following regulatory and macro stabilization.\",\n \"Asset-light model generates robust free cash flow, supporting aggressive share repurchases.\",\n \"High lease liabilities and consumer discretionary exposure present ongoing macroeconomic risks.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Las Vegas Strip RevPAR\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"BetMGM Profitability\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Macau Gross Gaming Revenue\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"US Consumer Discretionary Spending\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Share Repurchase Volume\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest Rates and Lease Costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regional Casino Margins\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Macroeconomic slowdown reducing consumer travel and leisure spending.\",\n \"Increased promotional competition in the US online sports betting market.\",\n \"Regulatory changes or travel restrictions impacting MGM China operations.\",\n \"High fixed lease obligations limiting financial flexibility during downturns.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.025,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.08,\n \"wacc\": 0.095,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 8.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 28.0,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Consumer recession hits Vegas and regional margins; BetMGM growth stalls.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 42.0,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Vegas remains stable, Macau grows modestly, and BetMGM turns profitable.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 52.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Strong consumer spending, Macau surges, and BetMGM takes significant market share.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"SOTP valuation applying 8.5x EV/EBITDAR to Vegas/Regional, 9x to Macau, and 3x EV/Sales for BetMGM, adjusted for lease liabilities. Recommendation is BUY based on ~13% upside. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "MGM_Equity_Valuation_SOTP", "risks": [ "Macroeconomic slowdown reducing consumer travel and leisure spending.", "Increased promotional competition in the US online sports betting market.", "Regulatory changes or travel restrictions impacting MGM China operations.", "High fixed lease obligations limiting financial flexibility during downturns." ], "ticker": "MGM", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Vegas remains stable, Macau grows modestly, and BetMGM turns profitable.", "target_price": 42 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Consumer recession hits Vegas and regional margins; BetMGM growth stalls.", "target_price": 28 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong consumer spending, Macau surges, and BetMGM takes significant market share.", "target_price": 52 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.025, "terminal_multiple": 8.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.08 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Las Vegas Strip RevPAR", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "BetMGM Profitability", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macau Gross Gaming Revenue", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "US Consumer Discretionary Spending", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Share Repurchase Volume", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest Rates and Lease Costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regional Casino Margins", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "SOTP valuation applying 8.5x EV/EBITDAR to Vegas/Regional, 9x to Macau, and 3x EV/Sales for BetMGM, adjusted for lease liabilities. Recommendation is BUY based on ~13% upside. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 37.1, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Vegas strip revenues remain resilient despite tough year-over-year comparisons and macro uncertainty.", "BetMGM joint venture is inflecting toward sustained profitability and market share stabilization.", "Macau operations provide strong cash flow recovery following regulatory and macro stabilization.", "Asset-light model generates robust free cash flow, supporting aggressive share repurchases.", "High lease liabilities and consumer discretionary exposure present ongoing macroeconomic risks." ], "target_price_6m": 39.5, "target_price_12m": 42 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 26498, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:23.583Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2433, "outputTokens": 856, "costUsd": 0.015138 } }, { "id": "cmnr14kn80535p658id873kq9", "runId": "cmnr14kn50534p658fvzl1x59", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"openai_equity_v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"MGM\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":37.1,\"target_price_6m\":38.3,\"target_price_12m\":39.1,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.63,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Las Vegas Strip demand and pricing support cash generation.\",\"BetMGM and digital optionality add upside but remain volatile.\",\"Positive FCF offsets weak reported EPS and thin operating margins.\",\"Leverage and cyclical exposure cap multiple expansion.\",\"Shares look near fair value on normalized cash flow.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Las Vegas occupancy and ADR\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Macau recovery pace\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"BetMGM profitability\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Convention and group demand\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Debt servicing burden\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Consumer discretionary softness\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Share repurchases\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory and tax changes\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"US consumer slowdown hurts gaming spend.\",\"High leverage limits flexibility if EBITDA weakens.\",\"Digital losses persist longer than expected.\",\"Macau or regional regulation tightens.\",\"Labor or capex inflation pressures margins.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.04,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.09,\"wacc\":0.105,\"terminal_multiple\":11},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":30,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"US consumer softens and digital losses persist.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":39.1,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Vegas stable, Macau steady, modest digital improvement.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":47,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Strong Vegas and Macau spend with BetMGM profitability.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended normalized EV/EBITDA, EV/revenue and FCF-yield framework using snapshot quote/fundamentals; snapshot market cap appears inconsistent with price*shares, but quote fields were not overridden. HOLD fits mixed evidence and base-case 12M upside below 6%. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "openai_equity_v1", "risks": [ "US consumer slowdown hurts gaming spend.", "High leverage limits flexibility if EBITDA weakens.", "Digital losses persist longer than expected.", "Macau or regional regulation tightens.", "Labor or capex inflation pressures margins." ], "ticker": "MGM", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Vegas stable, Macau steady, modest digital improvement.", "target_price": 39.1 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "US consumer softens and digital losses persist.", "target_price": 30 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong Vegas and Macau spend with BetMGM profitability.", "target_price": 47 } }, "confidence": 0.63, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.105, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 11, "ebit_margin_target": 0.09 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Las Vegas occupancy and ADR", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macau recovery pace", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "BetMGM profitability", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Convention and group demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt servicing burden", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Consumer discretionary softness", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Share repurchases", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory and tax changes", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended normalized EV/EBITDA, EV/revenue and FCF-yield framework using snapshot quote/fundamentals; snapshot market cap appears inconsistent with price*shares, but quote fields were not overridden. HOLD fits mixed evidence and base-case 12M upside below 6%. not investment advice", "current_price": 37.1, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Las Vegas Strip demand and pricing support cash generation.", "BetMGM and digital optionality add upside but remain volatile.", "Positive FCF offsets weak reported EPS and thin operating margins.", "Leverage and cyclical exposure cap multiple expansion.", "Shares look near fair value on normalized cash flow." ], "target_price_6m": 38.3, "target_price_12m": 39.1 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_01de5f6db20431bf0069d75b489ee881938479e0d89a4ca570", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 31300, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:23.583Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2360, "outputTokens": 1817, "costUsd": 0.029568 } }, { "id": "cmnr14kn80538p658w8wy02a0", "runId": "cmnr14kn50534p658fvzl1x59", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Blended DCF-Comps Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"MGM\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 37.1,\n \"target_price_6m\": 40.2,\n \"target_price_12m\": 43.5,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.61,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Trades at 0.5x P/B despite positive FCF generation.\",\n \"US casinos deliver stable cash flow base.\",\n \"Debt reduction strengthens balance sheet over time.\",\n \"Macau exposure adds regulatory and geopolitical risk.\",\n \"Cyclical demand sensitive to economic slowdowns.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"US domestic gaming recovery\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Macau regulatory environment\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Consumer discretionary spend\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Debt reduction progress\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Travel and tourism growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate sensitivity\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Las Vegas competition\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operational cost discipline\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Macau regulatory tightening\",\n \"Recession hitting gaming spend\",\n \"Rising interest on high debt\",\n \"Increased Las Vegas competition\",\n \"Geopolitical travel disruptions\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.1,\n \"wacc\": 0.095,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 10\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 28,\n \"prob\": 0.35,\n \"notes\": \"Recession and Macau curbs slash revenues.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 43.5,\n \"prob\": 0.45,\n \"notes\": \"Steady growth and debt paydown lift multiples.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 56,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Strong economy drives record Vegas and Asia results.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Blended EV/EBITDA and P/B valuation with 5% CAGR, 10% EBIT target, 9.5% WACC, 10x terminal. Low P/B and FCF support BUY on 17% 12M upside despite mixed earnings trends. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "Blended DCF-Comps Model", "risks": [ "Macau regulatory tightening", "Recession hitting gaming spend", "Rising interest on high debt", "Increased Las Vegas competition", "Geopolitical travel disruptions" ], "ticker": "MGM", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.45, "notes": "Steady growth and debt paydown lift multiples.", "target_price": 43.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.35, "notes": "Recession and Macau curbs slash revenues.", "target_price": 28 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong economy drives record Vegas and Asia results.", "target_price": 56 } }, "confidence": 0.61, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 10, "ebit_margin_target": 0.1 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "US domestic gaming recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macau regulatory environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Consumer discretionary spend", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt reduction progress", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Travel and tourism growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate sensitivity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Las Vegas competition", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operational cost discipline", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Blended EV/EBITDA and P/B valuation with 5% CAGR, 10% EBIT target, 9.5% WACC, 10x terminal. Low P/B and FCF support BUY on 17% 12M upside despite mixed earnings trends. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 37.1, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Trades at 0.5x P/B despite positive FCF generation.", "US casinos deliver stable cash flow base.", "Debt reduction strengthens balance sheet over time.", "Macau exposure adds regulatory and geopolitical risk.", "Cyclical demand sensitive to economic slowdowns." ], "target_price_6m": 40.2, "target_price_12m": 43.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "ccf68c20-541a-9632-aaeb-fb2fff538948", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 19659, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:23.583Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2699, "outputTokens": 3558, "costUsd": 0.061467 } } ] } }