{ "run": { "id": "cmnr14isu0500p658w40q0x5e", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr14iry04zwp6587v8twy9q", "ticker": "MCD", "snapshotId": "cmnr14isf04zyp658dtsxejjh", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:21.196Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr14isf04zyp658dtsxejjh", "assetId": "cmnr14iry04zwp6587v8twy9q", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "open": null, "price": 307.01, "dayLow": 303.16, "volume": 3435503, "dayHigh": 308.25, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 304.85, "week52Low": 283.47, "week52High": 341.75 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 25.4691666666667, "beta": 0.409440515676107, "epsTTM": 12, "fcfTTM": 5406000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.04803493449781666, "revenueYoy": 0.03722993827160494 }, "sector": "Retail-Eating Places", "margins": { "net": 0.2858823808507105, "gross": 0.02010295827106019, "operating": 0.430327616065286 }, "website": "https://www.mcdonalds.com/us/en-us.html", "industry": "Restaurant", "pegRatio": 5.30221742424242, "ebitdaTTM": 15032000000, "forwardPe": 23.0664150943396, "marketCap": 208464334129, "totalCash": 774000000, "totalDebt": 40725000000, "debtEquity": -22.7386934673367, "quickRatio": 0.1774822288465948, "revenueTTM": 21076500000, "companyName": "MCDONALDS CORP", "priceToBook": 0.00000395101334445371, "currentRatio": 0.9545975693648245, "dividendYield": 23472.5421047615, "returnOnAssets": 0.1012417037721583, "returnOnEquity": -4.78112786152987, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "McDonald's Corporation, doing business as McDonald's, is an American multinational fast food restaurant chain. As of 2024, it is the second-largest by number of locations in the world, behind the Chinese chain Mixue Ice Cream & Tea.", "enterpriseValue": 39951217914.19, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 150000, "sharesOutstanding": 710398642, "enterpriseToEbitda": 2.657744672311735, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 1.895533789490191, "operatingCashflowTTM": 10551000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:21.184Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr14isw0502p658y8vk1iyq", "runId": "cmnr14isu0500p658w40q0x5e", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"MCD\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":307.01,\"target_price_6m\":312,\"target_price_12m\":318,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Defensive franchise model with 43% operating margins and low beta\",\"Low single-digit revenue and EPS growth limits near-term upside\",\"PEG ratio of 5.3x signals valuation stretched relative to growth\",\"Substantial debt load ($40.7B) constrains financial flexibility\",\"Dividend yield provides modest total return cushion for shareholders\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Global same-store sales growth trajectory\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Menu price increases vs consumer resistance\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Franchise model cash flow stability\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Elevated debt and refinancing risk in higher-rate environment\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Digital and delivery channel adoption growth\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"International unit expansion in emerging markets\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Consumer discretionary spending sensitivity\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Cost inflation in labor and commodities\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Share buyback program supporting EPS growth\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Consumer trade-down fatigue erodes traffic at current menu price levels\",\"Significant leverage ($40.7B debt) increases sensitivity to rate environment\",\"Regulatory and labor cost pressures compress restaurant-level margins\",\"Emerging market currency headwinds dilute international earnings\",\"Competitive intensity from fast-casual and value-oriented alternatives\",\"Reputational or food-safety events impact brand perception\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.035,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.43,\"wacc\":0.08,\"terminal_multiple\":24.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":272,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Consumer weakness drives negative comps; multiple compresses to ~22x on $12.35 EPS.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":318,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Steady low-single-digit growth; ~25x on $12.70 forward EPS plus dividend support.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":355,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Accelerating comps and margin upside drive EPS to $13.40; multiple holds at 26.5x.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Earnings-power valuation anchored on forward PE (23-26x range) applied to projected EPS of $12.50-$13.40. 12M price return ~3.6% plus ~2.4% dividend yield = ~6% total return, borderline BUY/HOLD; defaulting HOLD given stretched PEG, modest growth, and high leverage. Snapshot EV and gross margin figures appear anomalous vs typical MCD financials; noted but snapshot values preserved. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Consumer trade-down fatigue erodes traffic at current menu price levels", "Significant leverage ($40.7B debt) increases sensitivity to rate environment", "Regulatory and labor cost pressures compress restaurant-level margins", "Emerging market currency headwinds dilute international earnings", "Competitive intensity from fast-casual and value-oriented alternatives", "Reputational or food-safety events impact brand perception" ], "ticker": "MCD", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady low-single-digit growth; ~25x on $12.70 forward EPS plus dividend support.", "target_price": 318 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Consumer weakness drives negative comps; multiple compresses to ~22x on $12.35 EPS.", "target_price": 272 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Accelerating comps and margin upside drive EPS to $13.40; multiple holds at 26.5x.", "target_price": 355 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.08, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.035, "terminal_multiple": 24.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.43 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Global same-store sales growth trajectory", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Menu price increases vs consumer resistance", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Franchise model cash flow stability", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Elevated debt and refinancing risk in higher-rate environment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Digital and delivery channel adoption growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "International unit expansion in emerging markets", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Consumer discretionary spending sensitivity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Cost inflation in labor and commodities", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Share buyback program supporting EPS growth", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Earnings-power valuation anchored on forward PE (23-26x range) applied to projected EPS of $12.50-$13.40. 12M price return ~3.6% plus ~2.4% dividend yield = ~6% total return, borderline BUY/HOLD; defaulting HOLD given stretched PEG, modest growth, and high leverage. Snapshot EV and gross margin figures appear anomalous vs typical MCD financials; noted but snapshot values preserved. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 307.01, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Defensive franchise model with 43% operating margins and low beta", "Low single-digit revenue and EPS growth limits near-term upside", "PEG ratio of 5.3x signals valuation stretched relative to growth", "Substantial debt load ($40.7B) constrains financial flexibility", "Dividend yield provides modest total return cushion for shareholders" ], "target_price_6m": 312, "target_price_12m": 318 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 37497, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:21.196Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3584, "outputTokens": 1684, "costUsd": 0.06002 } }, { "id": "cmnr14isw0505p658536uu5ul", "runId": "cmnr14isu0500p658w40q0x5e", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Equity Research AI Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"MCD\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 307.01,\n \"target_price_6m\": 315.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 322.36,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Stable revenue growth from global expansion and digital sales.\",\n \"High operating margins supported by franchise model efficiency.\",\n \"Moderate EPS growth expected at 4-5% annually.\",\n \"Valuation appears fair relative to growth prospects.\",\n \"Balanced risk-reward with defensive stock characteristics.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Digital and delivery growth\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Franchise fee income stability\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Menu innovation and marketing\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Inflationary cost pressures\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competition from fast-casual chains\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Economic sensitivity\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Brand strength and loyalty\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"International market expansion\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Rising labor and commodity costs\",\n \"Consumer shift towards healthier options\",\n \"Regulatory changes affecting operations\",\n \"Currency fluctuations in international markets\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.035,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.43,\n \"wacc\": 0.07,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 20.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 290.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Economic downturn reduces consumer spending.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 322.0, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Steady growth and margin maintenance.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 350.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Accelerated digital sales and cost efficiencies.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on DCF with assumed growth and margins. HOLD due to fair valuation and 5% expected return. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "Equity Research AI Model", "risks": [ "Rising labor and commodity costs", "Consumer shift towards healthier options", "Regulatory changes affecting operations", "Currency fluctuations in international markets" ], "ticker": "MCD", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady growth and margin maintenance.", "target_price": 322 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Economic downturn reduces consumer spending.", "target_price": 290 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated digital sales and cost efficiencies.", "target_price": 350 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.07, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.035, "terminal_multiple": 20, "ebit_margin_target": 0.43 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Digital and delivery growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Franchise fee income stability", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Menu innovation and marketing", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Inflationary cost pressures", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competition from fast-casual chains", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Economic sensitivity", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Brand strength and loyalty", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "International market expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on DCF with assumed growth and margins. HOLD due to fair valuation and 5% expected return. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 307.01, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stable revenue growth from global expansion and digital sales.", "High operating margins supported by franchise model efficiency.", "Moderate EPS growth expected at 4-5% annually.", "Valuation appears fair relative to growth prospects.", "Balanced risk-reward with defensive stock characteristics." ], "target_price_6m": 315, "target_price_12m": 322.36 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 420, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:21.196Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2098, "outputTokens": 3777, "costUsd": 0.002174 } }, { "id": "cmnr14isw0503p658ipfm2sxw", "runId": "cmnr14isu0500p658w40q0x5e", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearch_MCD_Base\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"MCD\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 307.01,\n \"target_price_6m\": 310.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 315.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.80,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Premium valuation (25x P/E) limits multiple expansion despite defensive characteristics.\",\n \"Low-income consumer pushback on pricing pressures near-term U.S. comparable sales.\",\n \"Highly franchised model ensures robust free cash flow generation and margin stability.\",\n \"International segment faces uneven recovery and localized geopolitical headwinds.\",\n \"Digital and loyalty investments drive frequency but require sustained capital expenditure.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"U.S. Comparable Sales\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Menu Pricing Power\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"International Franchised Margins\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Wage Inflation\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Digital Sales Mix\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Commodity Costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged consumer boycott or geopolitical impacts in Middle East/International markets.\",\n \"Value-menu wars eroding franchisee profitability and straining corporate relations.\",\n \"GLP-1 adoption structurally reducing fast-food consumption over the long term.\",\n \"Foreign exchange headwinds impacting reported earnings.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.04,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.44,\n \"wacc\": 0.075,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 20.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 270.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Consumer recession forces heavy discounting, compressing margins and multiple to 20x.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 315.00,\n \"prob\": 0.60,\n \"notes\": \"Steady low-single-digit growth, margins hold, valuation remains at historical premium.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 350.00,\n \"prob\": 0.15,\n \"notes\": \"Loyalty program accelerates frequency, macro recovery boosts international sales, multiple expands.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF and P/E multiple valuation. Base case assumes 23x forward P/E on steady EPS growth. Upside is capped by current premium valuation, warranting a HOLD. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch_MCD_Base", "risks": [ "Prolonged consumer boycott or geopolitical impacts in Middle East/International markets.", "Value-menu wars eroding franchisee profitability and straining corporate relations.", "GLP-1 adoption structurally reducing fast-food consumption over the long term.", "Foreign exchange headwinds impacting reported earnings." ], "ticker": "MCD", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady low-single-digit growth, margins hold, valuation remains at historical premium.", "target_price": 315 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Consumer recession forces heavy discounting, compressing margins and multiple to 20x.", "target_price": 270 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.15, "notes": "Loyalty program accelerates frequency, macro recovery boosts international sales, multiple expands.", "target_price": 350 } }, "confidence": 0.8, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.075, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 20, "ebit_margin_target": 0.44 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "U.S. Comparable Sales", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Menu Pricing Power", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "International Franchised Margins", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Wage Inflation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Digital Sales Mix", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Commodity Costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF and P/E multiple valuation. Base case assumes 23x forward P/E on steady EPS growth. Upside is capped by current premium valuation, warranting a HOLD. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 307.01, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Premium valuation (25x P/E) limits multiple expansion despite defensive characteristics.", "Low-income consumer pushback on pricing pressures near-term U.S. comparable sales.", "Highly franchised model ensures robust free cash flow generation and margin stability.", "International segment faces uneven recovery and localized geopolitical headwinds.", "Digital and loyalty investments drive frequency but require sustained capital expenditure." ], "target_price_6m": 310, "target_price_12m": 315 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 24024, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:21.196Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2475, "outputTokens": 816, "costUsd": 0.014742 } }, { "id": "cmnr14isw0501p658eoaanteg", "runId": "cmnr14isu0500p658w40q0x5e", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"MCD\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":307.01,\"target_price_6m\":312,\"target_price_12m\":318,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.63,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Franchised model supports resilient margins and cash generation.\",\"Low beta and brand strength justify a defensive premium.\",\"Sales and EPS growth remain modest versus valuation.\",\"Leverage is high, limiting flexibility if trends soften.\",\"Risk-reward looks balanced near current multiple.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Global comparable sales\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Franchise rent and royalty mix\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Menu pricing power\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Traffic recovery in key markets\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Commodity and labor inflation\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"High financial leverage\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Digital and loyalty adoption\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"FX translation on international sales\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Consumer traffic weakens on value fatigue.\",\"Regulatory or wage pressure hurts franchisees.\",\"Execution missteps in value platforms or promotions.\",\"Rates stay higher, pressuring valuation multiples.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":5,\"ebit_margin_target\":44,\"wacc\":7.2,\"terminal_multiple\":24},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":275,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Traffic softness and margin pressure compress the multiple.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":318,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Steady comps, pricing discipline, and stable premium valuation.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":355,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Traffic improves and digital mix supports faster EPS growth.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Base case uses a blended forward EPS/multiple and cash-flow durability view; 12M upside is ~3.6%, so HOLD fits the rubric. Snapshot quote fields were kept exact; some snapshot fundamentals appear inconsistent (e.g., dividend yield/EV), so they were not relied on heavily. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation", "risks": [ "Consumer traffic weakens on value fatigue.", "Regulatory or wage pressure hurts franchisees.", "Execution missteps in value platforms or promotions.", "Rates stay higher, pressuring valuation multiples." ], "ticker": "MCD", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady comps, pricing discipline, and stable premium valuation.", "target_price": 318 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Traffic softness and margin pressure compress the multiple.", "target_price": 275 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Traffic improves and digital mix supports faster EPS growth.", "target_price": 355 } }, "confidence": 0.63, "assumptions": { "wacc": 7.2, "revenue_cagr_3y": 5, "terminal_multiple": 24, "ebit_margin_target": 44 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Global comparable sales", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Franchise rent and royalty mix", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Menu pricing power", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Traffic recovery in key markets", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Commodity and labor inflation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "High financial leverage", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Digital and loyalty adoption", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "FX translation on international sales", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Base case uses a blended forward EPS/multiple and cash-flow durability view; 12M upside is ~3.6%, so HOLD fits the rubric. Snapshot quote fields were kept exact; some snapshot fundamentals appear inconsistent (e.g., dividend yield/EV), so they were not relied on heavily. not investment advice", "current_price": 307.01, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Franchised model supports resilient margins and cash generation.", "Low beta and brand strength justify a defensive premium.", "Sales and EPS growth remain modest versus valuation.", "Leverage is high, limiting flexibility if trends soften.", "Risk-reward looks balanced near current multiple." ], "target_price_6m": 312, "target_price_12m": 318 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0b5810736ab012c90069d75b2661a081969699a86e2d73edd5", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 26123, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:21.196Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2368, "outputTokens": 1371, "costUsd": 0.023338 } }, { "id": "cmnr14isw0504p6583f0i3zgm", "runId": "cmnr14isu0500p658w40q0x5e", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"MCD\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 307.01,\n \"target_price_6m\": 310,\n \"target_price_12m\": 318,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong brand drives loyalty and pricing power\",\n \"Franchise model yields robust cash flow stability\",\n \"Mature US market caps revenue growth at 4-5%\",\n \"Elevated PE and PEG limit material upside\",\n \"International expansion key to future growth\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Global brand strength\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Franchise cash flow\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"International expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"US same-store sales\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Cost inflation pressures\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Digital menu innovation\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Competitive intensity\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Traffic decline from value perception\",\n \"Rising labor and commodity costs\",\n \"Competition from QSR and fast-casual\",\n \"Macro pressure on consumer spending\",\n \"Menu health trend shifts\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.045,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.43,\n \"wacc\": 0.08,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 22\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 270,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Traffic drop and margin squeeze from costs.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 318,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Steady execution on modest global growth.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 355,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated international gains and efficiency.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF using 4.5% revenue CAGR, 43% EBIT margin, 8% WACC, 22x terminal. Near fair value with mixed growth signals supports HOLD per rubric. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Traffic decline from value perception", "Rising labor and commodity costs", "Competition from QSR and fast-casual", "Macro pressure on consumer spending", "Menu health trend shifts" ], "ticker": "MCD", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady execution on modest global growth.", "target_price": 318 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Traffic drop and margin squeeze from costs.", "target_price": 270 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated international gains and efficiency.", "target_price": 355 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.08, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.045, "terminal_multiple": 22, "ebit_margin_target": 0.43 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Global brand strength", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Franchise cash flow", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "International expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "US same-store sales", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Cost inflation pressures", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Digital menu innovation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive intensity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF using 4.5% revenue CAGR, 43% EBIT margin, 8% WACC, 22x terminal. 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