{ "run": { "id": "cmnr14iql04zip658b1trk06y", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr14ip004z5p658ya5vtxh7", "ticker": "MAR", "snapshotId": "cmnr14ipt04z9p658fv3z9yfm", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:21.114Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr14ipt04z9p658fv3z9yfm", "assetId": "cmnr14ip004z5p658ya5vtxh7", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "open": null, "price": 348.58, "dayLow": 346.035, "volume": 1701075, "dayHigh": 353.6, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 330.93, "week52Low": 207.62, "week52High": 370 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 32.5540398740819, "beta": 1.08295896122761, "epsTTM": 9.53, "fcfTTM": 2492000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.1399521531100479, "revenueYoy": 0.04326693227091633 }, "sector": "Hotels & Motels", "margins": { "net": 0.09932788512945849, "gross": null, "operating": 0.1581379363018407 }, "website": "http://marriott.com", "industry": "Hospitality", "pegRatio": 2.32608353288311, "ebitdaTTM": 5079000000, "forwardPe": 26.8838821490468, "marketCap": 61232412426, "totalCash": 1393000000, "totalDebt": 940000000, "debtEquity": -0.326703792097587, "quickRatio": 0.2174184485718745, "revenueTTM": 26186000000, "companyName": "MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL INC /MD/", "priceToBook": 4.42297022254728, "currentRatio": 0.5659434992976432, "dividendYield": 0.00848053238278298, "returnOnAssets": 0.1017884397135366, "returnOnEquity": -0.689737470167064, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Marriott International, Inc. is an American multinational company that operates, franchises, and licenses lodging brands that include hotel, residential, and timeshare properties. The company owns over 37 hotel and timeshare brands, with 9,000 locations and 1,597,380 rooms across its network (as of 2023). Headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, the company is the successor to the hospitality division of the Marriott Corporation, which was founded by J. Willard Marriott (1900–1985) and his wife Alice Marriott (1907–2000).", "enterpriseValue": 85538496000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 418000, "sharesOutstanding": 264984554, "enterpriseToEbitda": 16.84160189013585, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 3.266573588940656, "operatingCashflowTTM": 3212000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:21.090Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr14iqn04zkp6582q0pkim4", "runId": "cmnr14iql04zip658b1trk06y", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"MAR\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":348.58,\"target_price_6m\":355,\"target_price_12m\":365,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.55,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Asset-light model drives strong FCF but valuation full at 32x PE\",\"Revenue growth modest at 4.3% YoY; limited acceleration catalysts\",\"International net unit pipeline supports mid-single-digit room growth\",\"PEG ratio of 2.3x signals limited margin of safety at current price\",\"Buybacks support EPS but negative equity adds balance sheet risk\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"RevPAR trends across global markets\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Net unit growth from pipeline conversion\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Premium valuation limits re-rating upside\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Loyalty program (Bonvoy) driving direct bookings\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Share buyback program boosting EPS\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Macro/travel demand sensitivity (beta 1.08)\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"International expansion in Asia-Pacific\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Rising labor and operating costs\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Macroeconomic slowdown reducing leisure and business travel demand\",\"Geopolitical tensions disrupting international travel flows\",\"Alternative lodging competition from Airbnb constraining pricing\",\"High leverage and negative equity amplify downside in stress scenarios\",\"Currency headwinds from strong USD on international fee income\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.055,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.175,\"wacc\":0.095,\"terminal_multiple\":26},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":290,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Macro recession compresses RevPAR and multiple to ~22x forward EPS.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":365,\"prob\":0.50,\"notes\":\"Steady mid-single-digit growth, stable multiples near 27x forward PE.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":420,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"RevPAR acceleration and international expansion drive re-rating to 30x.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended forward PE (27x base on ~$13.5 forward EPS) and EV/EBITDA approach. Asset-light model supports premium but 32x trailing PE and 2.3x PEG cap upside. Mixed macro outlook and full valuation justify HOLD. Probability-weighted scenario value ~$360 aligns with base target. Sell-side consensus noted near $340-380 range but not used as input. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Macroeconomic slowdown reducing leisure and business travel demand", "Geopolitical tensions disrupting international travel flows", "Alternative lodging competition from Airbnb constraining pricing", "High leverage and negative equity amplify downside in stress scenarios", "Currency headwinds from strong USD on international fee income" ], "ticker": "MAR", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady mid-single-digit growth, stable multiples near 27x forward PE.", "target_price": 365 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Macro recession compresses RevPAR and multiple to ~22x forward EPS.", "target_price": 290 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "RevPAR acceleration and international expansion drive re-rating to 30x.", "target_price": 420 } }, "confidence": 0.55, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.055, "terminal_multiple": 26, "ebit_margin_target": 0.175 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "RevPAR trends across global markets", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Net unit growth from pipeline conversion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Premium valuation limits re-rating upside", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Loyalty program (Bonvoy) driving direct bookings", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Share buyback program boosting EPS", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macro/travel demand sensitivity (beta 1.08)", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "International expansion in Asia-Pacific", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Rising labor and operating costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended forward PE (27x base on ~$13.5 forward EPS) and EV/EBITDA approach. Asset-light model supports premium but 32x trailing PE and 2.3x PEG cap upside. Mixed macro outlook and full valuation justify HOLD. Probability-weighted scenario value ~$360 aligns with base target. Sell-side consensus noted near $340-380 range but not used as input. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 348.58, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Asset-light model drives strong FCF but valuation full at 32x PE", "Revenue growth modest at 4.3% YoY; limited acceleration catalysts", "International net unit pipeline supports mid-single-digit room growth", "PEG ratio of 2.3x signals limited margin of safety at current price", "Buybacks support EPS but negative equity adds balance sheet risk" ], "target_price_6m": 355, "target_price_12m": 365 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [ { "error": "sanity_error: hold_target_too_directional: HOLD requires implied 12M return within +/-6%.", "attempt": 0, "rawOutputTruncated": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"MAR\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":348.58,\"target_price_6m\":360,\"target_price_12m\":370,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.55,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Asset-light model drives strong FCF but valuation is full at 32x PE\",\"Revenue growth modest at 4.3% YoY; limited near-term acceleration catalysts\",\"International net unit pipeline supports mid-single-digit room growth\",\"PEG ratio of 2.3x signals limited margin of safety at current price\",\"Share buybacks provide EPS support but negative equity adds balance sheet risk\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"RevPAR trends across global markets\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Net unit growth from pipeline conversion\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Premium valuation limits re-rating upside\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Loyalty program (Bonvoy) driving direct bookings\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Share buyback program boosting EPS\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Macro/travel demand sensitivity (beta 1.08)\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"International expansion in Asia-Pacific\",\"impact…" } ], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 18351, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:21.114Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 4265, "outputTokens": 1011, "costUsd": 0.0466 } }, { "id": "cmnr14iqn04znp6589z0vdfu7", "runId": "cmnr14iql04zip658b1trk06y", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model v1.0\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"MAR\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 348.58,\n \"target_price_6m\": 352,\n \"target_price_12m\": 355,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Global travel demand supports steady revenue growth.\",\n \"High valuation multiples reflect optimistic earnings expectations.\",\n \"Strong brand portfolio enhances competitive positioning.\",\n \"Economic sensitivity could pressure occupancy and rates.\",\n \"Balance sheet strength allows for strategic investments.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\"driver\": \"Global travel recovery\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Hotel occupancy trends\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Labor cost inflation\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Brand expansion initiatives\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Economic cycle exposure\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Competitive landscape\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Franchise model scalability\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"}\n ],\n \"risks\": [\"Economic downturn reducing travel\", \"Rising operational expenses\", \"Geopolitical events affecting tourism\", \"Pandemic-related disruptions\"],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.16,\n \"wacc\": 0.08,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 14.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\"target_price\": 320, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Economic slowdown impacts demand.\"},\n \"base\": {\"target_price\": 355, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Steady growth and stable margins.\"},\n \"bull\": {\"target_price\": 380, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong travel recovery and cost control.\"}\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF valuation with assumed 5% revenue growth, 16% EBIT margin, 8% WACC, terminal multiple 14. HOLD due to balanced risk-reward. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model v1.0", "risks": [ "Economic downturn reducing travel", "Rising operational expenses", "Geopolitical events affecting tourism", "Pandemic-related disruptions" ], "ticker": "MAR", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady growth and stable margins.", "target_price": 355 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Economic slowdown impacts demand.", "target_price": 320 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong travel recovery and cost control.", "target_price": 380 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.08, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 14, "ebit_margin_target": 0.16 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Global travel recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Hotel occupancy trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Labor cost inflation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Brand expansion initiatives", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Economic cycle exposure", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competitive landscape", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Franchise model scalability", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "DCF valuation with assumed 5% revenue growth, 16% EBIT margin, 8% WACC, terminal multiple 14. HOLD due to balanced risk-reward. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 348.58, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Global travel demand supports steady revenue growth.", "High valuation multiples reflect optimistic earnings expectations.", "Strong brand portfolio enhances competitive positioning.", "Economic sensitivity could pressure occupancy and rates.", "Balance sheet strength allows for strategic investments." ], "target_price_6m": 352, "target_price_12m": 355 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 360, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:21.114Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2151, "outputTokens": 4449, "costUsd": 0.002471 } }, { "id": "cmnr14iqn04zlp6585go1axwh", "runId": "cmnr14iql04zip658b1trk06y", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearch_MAR\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"MAR\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 348.58,\n \"target_price_6m\": 350.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 360.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Asset-light franchise model generates strong, consistent free cash flow and high returns on capital.\",\n \"Industry-leading Bonvoy loyalty program drives direct bookings and lowers customer acquisition costs.\",\n \"Net unit growth remains robust, particularly in international and mid-scale segments.\",\n \"Valuation appears full at ~27x forward earnings, pricing in an optimistic travel demand scenario.\",\n \"Macroeconomic headwinds and normalizing leisure travel demand pose risks to RevPAR growth expectations.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Global RevPAR growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Net Unit Growth (NUG)\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Macroeconomic environment\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Bonvoy membership growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Share repurchases\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Labor cost inflation\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Geopolitical tensions\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Economic downturn reducing corporate and leisure travel budgets.\",\n \"Increased competition from alternative lodging platforms like Airbnb.\",\n \"Geopolitical instability impacting international travel volume.\",\n \"Higher interest rates increasing the cost of capital for hotel developers, slowing NUG.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.165,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 15.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 290.0,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Macroeconomic slowdown reduces corporate and leisure travel, compressing RevPAR and multiples.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 360.0,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Steady mid-single-digit RevPAR growth and strong net unit growth offset by slight multiple compression.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 410.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Robust international travel recovery and strong loyalty program monetization drive earnings beat.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a blended 10-year DCF (8.5% WACC, 15x terminal EV/EBITDA) and a 26x forward P/E multiple. The HOLD rating reflects limited upside (+3.2%) from the current premium valuation despite strong fundamentals. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch_MAR", "risks": [ "Economic downturn reducing corporate and leisure travel budgets.", "Increased competition from alternative lodging platforms like Airbnb.", "Geopolitical instability impacting international travel volume.", "Higher interest rates increasing the cost of capital for hotel developers, slowing NUG." ], "ticker": "MAR", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady mid-single-digit RevPAR growth and strong net unit growth offset by slight multiple compression.", "target_price": 360 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Macroeconomic slowdown reduces corporate and leisure travel, compressing RevPAR and multiples.", "target_price": 290 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Robust international travel recovery and strong loyalty program monetization drive earnings beat.", "target_price": 410 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 15, "ebit_margin_target": 0.165 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Global RevPAR growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Net Unit Growth (NUG)", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macroeconomic environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Bonvoy membership growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Share repurchases", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Labor cost inflation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Geopolitical tensions", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a blended 10-year DCF (8.5% WACC, 15x terminal EV/EBITDA) and a 26x forward P/E multiple. The HOLD rating reflects limited upside (+3.2%) from the current premium valuation despite strong fundamentals. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 348.58, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Asset-light franchise model generates strong, consistent free cash flow and high returns on capital.", "Industry-leading Bonvoy loyalty program drives direct bookings and lowers customer acquisition costs.", "Net unit growth remains robust, particularly in international and mid-scale segments.", "Valuation appears full at ~27x forward earnings, pricing in an optimistic travel demand scenario.", "Macroeconomic headwinds and normalizing leisure travel demand pose risks to RevPAR growth expectations." ], "target_price_6m": 350, "target_price_12m": 360 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 25255, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:21.114Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2515, "outputTokens": 871, "costUsd": 0.015482 } }, { "id": "cmnr14iqn04zjp658es6lo914", "runId": "cmnr14iql04zip658b1trk06y", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation v2\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"MAR\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":348.58,\"target_price_6m\":334,\"target_price_12m\":366,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.63,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Asset-light model supports strong cash generation and resilient returns.\",\"Room and brand expansion should outpace broader lodging demand.\",\"EPS growth remains solid despite only mid-single-digit revenue growth.\",\"Valuation already discounts much of the quality and travel strength.\",\"Cyclical travel, FX, and luxury normalization cap near-term upside.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Net rooms growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Global RevPAR trend\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Asset-light fee mix\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Share repurchases\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Premium valuation\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Corporate travel softness\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"International expansion\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Consumer travel cyclicality\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Travel demand slows in recession.\",\"FX and geopolitics hurt international fees.\",\"Wage or renovation pressures compress margins.\",\"Valuation de-rates despite steady execution.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.06,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.175,\"wacc\":0.085,\"terminal_multiple\":25},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":290,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"RevPAR stalls and valuation compresses toward market multiples.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":368,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Steady fee growth and buybacks offset a still-rich multiple.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":430,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Travel demand stays strong and rooms growth drives upside.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended forward earnings and cash-flow multiple approach using snapshot fundamentals and labeled assumptions only; no sell-side targets used. Snapshot quote fields kept authoritative. Hold reflects ~5% 12M upside with mixed valuation/risk balance; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation v2", "risks": [ "Travel demand slows in recession.", "FX and geopolitics hurt international fees.", "Wage or renovation pressures compress margins.", "Valuation de-rates despite steady execution." ], "ticker": "MAR", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady fee growth and buybacks offset a still-rich multiple.", "target_price": 368 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "RevPAR stalls and valuation compresses toward market multiples.", "target_price": 290 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Travel demand stays strong and rooms growth drives upside.", "target_price": 430 } }, "confidence": 0.63, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 25, "ebit_margin_target": 0.175 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Net rooms growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Global RevPAR trend", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Asset-light fee mix", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Share repurchases", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Premium valuation", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Corporate travel softness", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "International expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Consumer travel cyclicality", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended forward earnings and cash-flow multiple approach using snapshot fundamentals and labeled assumptions only; no sell-side targets used. Snapshot quote fields kept authoritative. 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Snapshot data as baseline.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "Fundamental DCF Model", "risks": [ "Global economic recession", "Geopolitical events disrupting travel", "Persistent inflation eroding margins", "Supply shortages in key markets", "Regulatory changes in franchising" ], "ticker": "MAR", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady RevPAR growth and margin expansion materialize.", "target_price": 385 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Deep recession crushes demand and compresses multiples.", "target_price": 290 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Accelerated expansion and strong travel rebound occur.", "target_price": 450 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.055, "terminal_multiple": 19, "ebit_margin_target": 0.17 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Brand strength and RevPAR growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "International hotel pipeline expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Economic sensitivity of leisure travel", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Franchise fee revenue stability", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cost inflation in labor and supplies", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Loyalty program member growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competition from alternative lodging", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "M&A and portfolio optimization", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "DCF model using revenue CAGR, EBIT margin, WACC and terminal multiple assumptions. 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