{ "run": { "id": "cmnr14hiz04uzp658wi5blaop", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr14hhr04usp658j611r2w9", "ticker": "LII", "snapshotId": "cmnr14hi704uvp658tbraclr3", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:19.545Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr14hi704uvp658tbraclr3", "assetId": "cmnr14hhr04usp658j611r2w9", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "open": null, "price": 478.08, "dayLow": 471.44, "volume": 398997, "dayHigh": 482.22, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 450.65, "week52Low": 434.06, "week52High": 689.44 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 21.213630406291, "beta": 1.05928620333742, "epsTTM": 22.89, "fcfTTM": 558000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.009704455227172424, "revenueYoy": -0.02733416958418363 }, "sector": "Air-Cond & Warm Air Heatg Equip & Comm & Indl Refrig Equip", "margins": { "net": 0.1551017265605451, "gross": 0.3339171943872346, "operating": 0.200469655265336 }, "website": "http://lennox.com", "industry": "HVAC", "pegRatio": 21.8596818777556, "ebitdaTTM": 1063000000, "forwardPe": 20.1318407960199, "marketCap": 18200000000, "totalCash": 34200000, "totalDebt": 1162400000, "debtEquity": 0.999398160089416, "quickRatio": 0.5147675784527606, "revenueTTM": 5195300000, "companyName": "LENNOX INTERNATIONAL INC", "priceToBook": 14.6955687387155, "currentRatio": 1.597415673770767, "dividendYield": 0.0103788721266789, "returnOnAssets": 0.1974129060708511, "returnOnEquity": 0.69280371421202, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Lennox International Inc. is an American provider of climate control products for the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) and refrigeration markets. Based in Richardson, Texas, the company is 9.8% owned by John W. Norris, III, a descendant of DW Norris, who acquired the company in 1904. The company's largest production facilities are in Saltillo, Mexico, Marshalltown, Iowa, and Orangeburg, South Carolina.", "enterpriseValue": 18220616000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 14200, "sharesOutstanding": 34802911, "enterpriseToEbitda": 17.14074882408278, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 3.507134525436452, "operatingCashflowTTM": 757600000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:19.519Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr14hj204v1p658gddfwt17", "runId": "cmnr14hiz04uzp658wi5blaop", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"LII\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":478.08,\"target_price_6m\":500,\"target_price_12m\":520,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.57,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Quality HVAC franchise with durable replacement-cycle demand and strong margins\",\"Stock ~30% off 52-week high presents moderate valuation entry point\",\"ROE near 69% reflects asset-light model and efficient capital allocation\",\"Revenue dipped -2.7% YoY but operating margin held steady near 20%\",\"Secular tailwinds from energy-efficiency regulation support medium-term growth\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Residential HVAC replacement cycle driving recurring demand\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Energy efficiency regulation (DOE 2023+) boosting ASPs\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Revenue declining YoY indicating near-term demand softness\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Strong FCF generation (~$558M TTM) funds buybacks and dividends\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Debt/equity ~1.0 limits financial flexibility in downturn\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Commercial segment offers diversification and growth\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Raw material and tariff cost inflation risk to gross margin\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Very high PEG ratio (21.9) implies limited near-term EPS growth priced in\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Prolonged housing weakness reduces replacement and new construction volumes\",\"Tariff escalation on imported components squeezes gross margins\",\"Competitive pressure from Carrier, Trane, Daikin compresses pricing power\",\"Rising interest rates dampen residential HVAC financing demand\",\"Supply chain disruptions delay product availability and increase costs\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.035,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.21,\"wacc\":0.095,\"terminal_multiple\":18},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":420,\"prob\":0.20,\"notes\":\"Macro recession depresses HVAC volumes; margins contract on fixed cost deleverage.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":520,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Low-single-digit revenue growth, stable margins; multiple re-rates modestly higher.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":610,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Housing recovery plus regulation-driven upgrade cycle lifts revenue and expands multiples.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended EV/EBITDA and P/E valuation anchored on ~18x forward EBITDA and ~21x forward P/E, consistent with quality HVAC comps. 12M target implies ~8.8% upside, probability-weighted scenario return ~9.3%. Confidence moderate given mixed revenue trend and elevated PEG. Snapshot fields used as-is. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Prolonged housing weakness reduces replacement and new construction volumes", "Tariff escalation on imported components squeezes gross margins", "Competitive pressure from Carrier, Trane, Daikin compresses pricing power", "Rising interest rates dampen residential HVAC financing demand", "Supply chain disruptions delay product availability and increase costs" ], "ticker": "LII", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Low-single-digit revenue growth, stable margins; multiple re-rates modestly higher.", "target_price": 520 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Macro recession depresses HVAC volumes; margins contract on fixed cost deleverage.", "target_price": 420 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Housing recovery plus regulation-driven upgrade cycle lifts revenue and expands multiples.", "target_price": 610 } }, "confidence": 0.57, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.035, "terminal_multiple": 18, "ebit_margin_target": 0.21 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Residential HVAC replacement cycle driving recurring demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Energy efficiency regulation (DOE 2023+) boosting ASPs", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Revenue declining YoY indicating near-term demand softness", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Strong FCF generation (~$558M TTM) funds buybacks and dividends", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt/equity ~1.0 limits financial flexibility in downturn", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Commercial segment offers diversification and growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Raw material and tariff cost inflation risk to gross margin", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Very high PEG ratio (21.9) implies limited near-term EPS growth priced in", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended EV/EBITDA and P/E valuation anchored on ~18x forward EBITDA and ~21x forward P/E, consistent with quality HVAC comps. 12M target implies ~8.8% upside, probability-weighted scenario return ~9.3%. Confidence moderate given mixed revenue trend and elevated PEG. Snapshot fields used as-is. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 478.08, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Quality HVAC franchise with durable replacement-cycle demand and strong margins", "Stock ~30% off 52-week high presents moderate valuation entry point", "ROE near 69% reflects asset-light model and efficient capital allocation", "Revenue dipped -2.7% YoY but operating margin held steady near 20%", "Secular tailwinds from energy-efficiency regulation support medium-term growth" ], "target_price_6m": 500, "target_price_12m": 520 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [ { "error": "sanity_error: buy_scenario_return_too_low: BUY requires >= 6% return from probability-weighted scenarios.", "attempt": 0, "rawOutputTruncated": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"LII\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":478.08,\"target_price_6m\":500,\"target_price_12m\":515,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.57,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Quality HVAC franchise with durable replacement-cycle demand and strong margins\",\"Stock ~30% off 52-week high presents moderate entry opportunity\",\"ROE near 69% reflects asset-light model and efficient capital allocation\",\"Revenue dipped -2.7% YoY but margins held steady near 20% operating\",\"Secular tailwinds from energy-efficiency regulation support medium-term growth\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Residential HVAC replacement cycle driving recurring demand\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Energy efficiency regulation (DOE 2023+) boosting ASPs\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Revenue declining YoY indicating near-term demand softness\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Strong FCF generation (~$558M TTM) funds buybacks and dividends\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Debt/equity ~1.0 limits financial flexibility in downturn\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Commercial segment offers diversification an…" } ], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 16897, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:19.545Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 4251, "outputTokens": 1094, "costUsd": 0.048605 } }, { "id": "cmnr14hj204v4p658vqahi5xw", "runId": "cmnr14hiz04uzp658wi5blaop", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI_Equity_Research_Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"LII\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 478.08,\n \"target_price_6m\": 475,\n \"target_price_12m\": 460,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\"Strong HVAC brand with high margins.\", \"Negative revenue growth shows challenges.\", \"High valuation vs low growth (PEG).\", \"Economic sensitivity adds downside risk.\", \"Energy efficiency trends offer upside.\"],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\"driver\": \"Economic Cycle\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Energy Efficiency Regulations\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Housing Market Activity\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Raw Material Costs\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Technological Innovation\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Competitive Intensity\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Debt Levels\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"International Expansion\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\"}\n ],\n \"risks\": [\"Economic recession reducing demand.\", \"Competition pressuring margins.\", \"Regulatory changes increasing costs.\", \"Supply chain disruptions.\", \"Currency fluctuations.\"],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.02,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.21,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 15\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\"target_price\": 400, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Severe downturn cuts demand sharply.\"},\n \"base\": {\"target_price\": 460, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Modest growth with stable margins.\"},\n \"bull\": {\"target_price\": 520, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong efficiency adoption boosts sales.\"}\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF valuation with assumed growth; limited upside justifies HOLD. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI_Equity_Research_Model", "risks": [ "Economic recession reducing demand.", "Competition pressuring margins.", "Regulatory changes increasing costs.", "Supply chain disruptions.", "Currency fluctuations." ], "ticker": "LII", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Modest growth with stable margins.", "target_price": 460 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Severe downturn cuts demand sharply.", "target_price": 400 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong efficiency adoption boosts sales.", "target_price": 520 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.02, "terminal_multiple": 15, "ebit_margin_target": 0.21 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Economic Cycle", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Energy Efficiency Regulations", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Housing Market Activity", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Raw Material Costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Technological Innovation", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive Intensity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt Levels", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "International Expansion", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "DCF valuation with assumed growth; limited upside justifies HOLD. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 478.08, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong HVAC brand with high margins.", "Negative revenue growth shows challenges.", "High valuation vs low growth (PEG).", "Economic sensitivity adds downside risk.", "Energy efficiency trends offer upside." ], "target_price_6m": 475, "target_price_12m": 460 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 373, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:19.545Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2142, "outputTokens": 4360, "costUsd": 0.002431 } }, { "id": "cmnr14hj204v2p658gcjn2y8g", "runId": "cmnr14hiz04uzp658wi5blaop", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"LII_Equity_Valuation_v1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"LII\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 478.08,\n \"target_price_6m\": 500.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 525.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"HVAC replacement cycle provides long-term structural demand despite near-term macro headwinds.\",\n \"Transition to low-GWP refrigerants offers pricing power and product mix tailwinds.\",\n \"Recent revenue contraction reflects channel destocking and weak residential construction activity.\",\n \"Exceptional ROE and 20% operating margins demonstrate strong pricing and cost control.\",\n \"Valuation at 20x forward P/E is attractive relative to historical HVAC sector premiums.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Residential replacement volumes\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"A2L refrigerant transition\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"New residential construction\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Raw material costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Channel inventory destocking\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Commercial HVAC demand\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rates impacting housing\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged weakness in residential repair and remodel spending.\",\n \"Intensifying price competition if channel inventories remain elevated.\",\n \"Supply chain disruptions impacting Mexican manufacturing facilities.\",\n \"Slower-than-expected adoption of high-efficiency A2L units.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.04,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.21,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 18.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 400.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Prolonged housing slump and consumer deferral of HVAC replacements pressure margins.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 525.00,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Modest volume recovery in residential HVAC, pricing holds, and margins remain stable.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 600.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Strong replacement demand driven by extreme weather and new refrigerant transition.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF and P/E multiple valuation. Base case assumes 21x forward P/E on normalized EPS of $25. Recommendation is BUY due to ~9.8% upside to 12M target. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "LII_Equity_Valuation_v1", "risks": [ "Prolonged weakness in residential repair and remodel spending.", "Intensifying price competition if channel inventories remain elevated.", "Supply chain disruptions impacting Mexican manufacturing facilities.", "Slower-than-expected adoption of high-efficiency A2L units." ], "ticker": "LII", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Modest volume recovery in residential HVAC, pricing holds, and margins remain stable.", "target_price": 525 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Prolonged housing slump and consumer deferral of HVAC replacements pressure margins.", "target_price": 400 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong replacement demand driven by extreme weather and new refrigerant transition.", "target_price": 600 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 18, "ebit_margin_target": 0.21 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Residential replacement volumes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "A2L refrigerant transition", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "New residential construction", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Raw material costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Channel inventory destocking", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Commercial HVAC demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rates impacting housing", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF and P/E multiple valuation. Base case assumes 21x forward P/E on normalized EPS of $25. Recommendation is BUY due to ~9.8% upside to 12M target. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 478.08, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "HVAC replacement cycle provides long-term structural demand despite near-term macro headwinds.", "Transition to low-GWP refrigerants offers pricing power and product mix tailwinds.", "Recent revenue contraction reflects channel destocking and weak residential construction activity.", "Exceptional ROE and 20% operating margins demonstrate strong pricing and cost control.", "Valuation at 20x forward P/E is attractive relative to historical HVAC sector premiums." ], "target_price_6m": 500, "target_price_12m": 525 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 21420, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:19.545Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2502, "outputTokens": 862, "costUsd": 0.015348 } }, { "id": "cmnr14hj204v0p658ja5qrxxh", "runId": "cmnr14hiz04uzp658wi5blaop", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation v2\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"LII\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":478.08,\"target_price_6m\":492,\"target_price_12m\":502,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Best-in-class HVAC margins support downside resilience.\",\"Revenue and EPS growth are currently muted.\",\"Valuation looks fair, not distressed, after the pullback.\",\"Replacement demand and premium mix aid medium-term growth.\",\"Leverage and housing sensitivity cap upside near term.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Residential replacement demand\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Commercial HVAC project activity\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Price-cost realization\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Margin normalization risk\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Dealer channel inventory\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest-rate driven housing demand\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory efficiency upgrade cycle\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Capital allocation and buybacks\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Housing slowdown deepens unit pressure.\",\"Input costs or tariffs compress margins.\",\"Execution missteps in product transitions.\",\"Balance-sheet leverage limits flexibility.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":5.2,\"ebit_margin_target\":19.6,\"wacc\":8.7,\"terminal_multiple\":17},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":410,\"prob\":0.3,\"notes\":\"Housing and commercial demand stay weak; margins retrace.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":502,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Replacement demand stabilizes and margins remain near current levels.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":590,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Volume rebounds, mix improves, and premium multiple returns.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Snapshot fields were used as authoritative. Target based on normalized EV/EBITDA, forward P/E, and FCF yield versus current margins/growth; no sell-side price targets used. HOLD fits roughly fair value and mixed growth signals; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation v2", "risks": [ "Housing slowdown deepens unit pressure.", "Input costs or tariffs compress margins.", "Execution missteps in product transitions.", "Balance-sheet leverage limits flexibility." ], "ticker": "LII", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Replacement demand stabilizes and margins remain near current levels.", "target_price": 502 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Housing and commercial demand stay weak; margins retrace.", "target_price": 410 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Volume rebounds, mix improves, and premium multiple returns.", "target_price": 590 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 8.7, "revenue_cagr_3y": 5.2, "terminal_multiple": 17, "ebit_margin_target": 19.6 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Residential replacement demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Commercial HVAC project activity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Price-cost realization", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Margin normalization risk", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dealer channel inventory", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Interest-rate driven housing demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory efficiency upgrade cycle", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Capital allocation and buybacks", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Snapshot fields were used as authoritative. Target based on normalized EV/EBITDA, forward P/E, and FCF yield versus current margins/growth; no sell-side price targets used. HOLD fits roughly fair value and mixed growth signals; not investment advice.", "current_price": 478.08, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Best-in-class HVAC margins support downside resilience.", "Revenue and EPS growth are currently muted.", "Valuation looks fair, not distressed, after the pullback.", "Replacement demand and premium mix aid medium-term growth.", "Leverage and housing sensitivity cap upside near term." ], "target_price_6m": 492, "target_price_12m": 502 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_04f2a350425c57ab0069d75aeb1f408194834d26b99afb3779", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 19229, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:19.545Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2410, "outputTokens": 994, "costUsd": 0.018134 } }, { "id": "cmnr14hj204v3p658su5u065r", "runId": "cmnr14hiz04uzp658wi5blaop", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI DCF Valuation Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"LII\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 478.08,\n \"target_price_6m\": 490,\n \"target_price_12m\": 505,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Lennox maintains strong brand in premium HVAC segment.\",\n \"Recent revenue decline reflects soft new construction market.\",\n \"Robust 20% operating margins showcase pricing discipline.\",\n \"High PEG ratio signals limited growth priced in.\",\n \"Cash flow strength aids in weathering economic cycles.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Residential replacement demand\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Commercial building activity\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"New home construction trends\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Raw material costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate sensitivity\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Product innovation and efficiency\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Competitor actions in market\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Supply chain efficiencies\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged slowdown in housing market\",\n \"Escalating tariffs or trade tensions\",\n \"Failure to innovate against competitors\",\n \"Margin pressure from inflation\",\n \"High debt burden in rising rate environment\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.21,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 17\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 390,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Deep recession hits construction and replacement cycles.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 505,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Gradual recovery in demand with margin stability.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 620,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Strong commercial boom and share gains drive growth.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF model with given assumptions bridging to 12M target; mixed cyclical signals and fair valuation support HOLD. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI DCF Valuation Model", "risks": [ "Prolonged slowdown in housing market", "Escalating tariffs or trade tensions", "Failure to innovate against competitors", "Margin pressure from inflation", "High debt burden in rising rate environment" ], "ticker": "LII", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Gradual recovery in demand with margin stability.", "target_price": 505 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Deep recession hits construction and replacement cycles.", "target_price": 390 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong commercial boom and share gains drive growth.", "target_price": 620 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 17, "ebit_margin_target": 0.21 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Residential replacement demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Commercial building activity", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "New home construction trends", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Raw material costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Interest rate sensitivity", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Product innovation and efficiency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitor actions in market", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Supply chain efficiencies", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "DCF model with given assumptions bridging to 12M target; mixed cyclical signals and fair valuation support HOLD. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 478.08, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Lennox maintains strong brand in premium HVAC segment.", "Recent revenue decline reflects soft new construction market.", "Robust 20% operating margins showcase pricing discipline.", "High PEG ratio signals limited growth priced in.", "Cash flow strength aids in weathering economic cycles." ], "target_price_6m": 490, "target_price_12m": 505 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "3ed5b645-1817-9f54-befb-f7fd4b3592cb", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 23359, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:19.545Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2751, "outputTokens": 4424, "costUsd": 0.074613 } } ] } }