{ "run": { "id": "cmnr14hg604uip658zod0n4a9", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr14hen04uep658nznmpf65", "ticker": "LNT", "snapshotId": "cmnr14hfs04ugp658t9s3uhwy", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:19.444Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr14hfs04ugp658t9s3uhwy", "assetId": "cmnr14hen04uep658nznmpf65", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "open": null, "price": 72.99, "dayLow": 71.56, "volume": 1466724, "dayHigh": 73, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 72.65, "week52Low": 57.09, "week52High": 73.41 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 20.6380952380952, "beta": 0.367371448116141, "epsTTM": 3.15, "fcfTTM": -1320000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.171003717472119, "revenueYoy": 0.09570459683496609 }, "sector": "Electric & Other Services Combined", "margins": { "net": 0.1856946354883081, "gross": 0.1104997707473636, "operating": 0.2349839523154516 }, "website": "http://alliantenergy.com", "industry": "Utilities", "pegRatio": 1.20687991718427, "ebitdaTTM": 1902000000, "forwardPe": 18.9533527696793, "marketCap": 15500000000, "totalCash": 556000000, "totalDebt": 12028000000, "debtEquity": 1.64003272429779, "quickRatio": 0.4861045690061234, "revenueTTM": 4362000000, "companyName": "ALLIANT ENERGY CORP", "priceToBook": 0.897050738255034, "currentRatio": 0.7993405558172397, "dividendYield": 0.0311834695290817, "returnOnAssets": 0.0324116682005522, "returnOnEquity": 0.110444505044996, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Alliant Energy Corporation is a public utility holding company headquartered in Madison, Wisconsin, providing power in Iowa and Wisconsin.", "enterpriseValue": 28179570000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 3375, "sharesOutstanding": 257140829, "enterpriseToEbitda": 14.8157570977918, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 6.460240715268226, "operatingCashflowTTM": 1169000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:19.432Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr14hg804ukp658w62z71ap", "runId": "cmnr14hg604uip658zod0n4a9", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"LNT\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":72.99,\"target_price_6m\":74.5,\"target_price_12m\":76.0,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.6,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Regulated utility trading near 52-week high with limited upside\",\"Rate base growth supports mid-single-digit EPS CAGR ahead\",\"Negative FCF of -$1.3B reflects heavy capex cycle for renewables\",\"Dividend yield of ~3.1% provides income floor for total return\",\"Price/Book below 1.0 partly offset by elevated leverage at 1.64x D/E\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Rate base growth from renewable energy capex program\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory outcomes in Iowa and Wisconsin\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest rate environment impacting utility valuations\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend growth aligned with 5-7% EPS growth guidance\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Elevated debt load constraining financial flexibility\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Low beta (0.37) defensive positioning in macro uncertainty\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Negative free cash flow during capex-intensive period\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Forward P/E of ~19x in line with utility peer average\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Unfavorable rate case outcomes reducing allowed returns\",\"Rising long-term interest rates compressing utility multiples\",\"Capex execution risk on renewable build-out program\",\"Regulatory disallowance of capital costs eroding ROE\",\"Credit downgrade risk given high leverage and negative FCF\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.045,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.24,\"wacc\":0.065,\"terminal_multiple\":20.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":64.0,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Regulatory setback or rate hike cycle compresses utility multiples to 17x.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":76.0,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Steady rate base growth, EPS reaches ~$3.50, multiple holds near 20x.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":84.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Favorable rate cases and clean energy tailwinds drive EPS beat and re-rate.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Utility valuation anchored on forward P/E (19-20x) applied to projected EPS of ~$3.50-$3.85 using rate base growth framework. Current price near 52-week high with ~4% price upside plus 3.1% dividend yield gives ~7% total return, but price-only return of ~4% falls within HOLD range. Negative FCF typical for capex-heavy utility cycle. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Unfavorable rate case outcomes reducing allowed returns", "Rising long-term interest rates compressing utility multiples", "Capex execution risk on renewable build-out program", "Regulatory disallowance of capital costs eroding ROE", "Credit downgrade risk given high leverage and negative FCF" ], "ticker": "LNT", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady rate base growth, EPS reaches ~$3.50, multiple holds near 20x.", "target_price": 76 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Regulatory setback or rate hike cycle compresses utility multiples to 17x.", "target_price": 64 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Favorable rate cases and clean energy tailwinds drive EPS beat and re-rate.", "target_price": 84 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.065, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.045, "terminal_multiple": 20, "ebit_margin_target": 0.24 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Rate base growth from renewable energy capex program", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory outcomes in Iowa and Wisconsin", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment impacting utility valuations", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend growth aligned with 5-7% EPS growth guidance", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Elevated debt load constraining financial flexibility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Low beta (0.37) defensive positioning in macro uncertainty", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Negative free cash flow during capex-intensive period", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Forward P/E of ~19x in line with utility peer average", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Utility valuation anchored on forward P/E (19-20x) applied to projected EPS of ~$3.50-$3.85 using rate base growth framework. Current price near 52-week high with ~4% price upside plus 3.1% dividend yield gives ~7% total return, but price-only return of ~4% falls within HOLD range. Negative FCF typical for capex-heavy utility cycle. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 72.99, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Regulated utility trading near 52-week high with limited upside", "Rate base growth supports mid-single-digit EPS CAGR ahead", "Negative FCF of -$1.3B reflects heavy capex cycle for renewables", "Dividend yield of ~3.1% provides income floor for total return", "Price/Book below 1.0 partly offset by elevated leverage at 1.64x D/E" ], "target_price_6m": 74.5, "target_price_12m": 76 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 43573, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:19.444Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3544, "outputTokens": 2073, "costUsd": 0.069545 } }, { "id": "cmnr14hg804unp6581haj0tzh", "runId": "cmnr14hg604uip658zod0n4a9", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"LNT\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 72.99,\n \"target_price_6m\": 68.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 63.5,\n \"recommendation\": \"SELL\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Utility stock trading near 52-week high with elevated valuation.\",\n \"Modest revenue growth expected in regulated markets.\",\n \"High debt levels may constrain financial flexibility.\",\n \"Dividend yield is attractive but growth is limited.\",\n \"Current price implies optimistic earnings growth assumptions.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory rate changes\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Interest rate trends\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Energy demand growth\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Capital expenditure efficiency\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt management and leverage\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Dividend policy stability\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Economic condition impacts\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Renewable energy adoption rate\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Regulatory approvals for rate increases\",\n \"Rising interest rates increasing cost of capital\",\n \"Operational failures in infrastructure\",\n \"Competitive pressures in energy markets\",\n \"Credit risk from high debt levels\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.24,\n \"wacc\": 0.07,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 18.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 60.0, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Lower growth and multiple contraction due to regulatory headwinds.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 63.5, \"prob\": 0.5, \"notes\": \"Moderate growth with stable P/E multiples as per industry norms.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 68.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Higher efficiency gains and favorable rate cases driving upside.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on earnings growth and P/E multiples; SELL due to overvaluation vs. growth prospects. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Regulatory approvals for rate increases", "Rising interest rates increasing cost of capital", "Operational failures in infrastructure", "Competitive pressures in energy markets", "Credit risk from high debt levels" ], "ticker": "LNT", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate growth with stable P/E multiples as per industry norms.", "target_price": 63.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Lower growth and multiple contraction due to regulatory headwinds.", "target_price": 60 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Higher efficiency gains and favorable rate cases driving upside.", "target_price": 68 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.07, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 18, "ebit_margin_target": 0.24 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Regulatory rate changes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Interest rate trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Energy demand growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Capital expenditure efficiency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt management and leverage", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend policy stability", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Economic condition impacts", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Renewable energy adoption rate", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on earnings growth and P/E multiples; SELL due to overvaluation vs. growth prospects. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 72.99, "recommendation": "SELL", "thesis_bullets": [ "Utility stock trading near 52-week high with elevated valuation.", "Modest revenue growth expected in regulated markets.", "High debt levels may constrain financial flexibility.", "Dividend yield is attractive but growth is limited.", "Current price implies optimistic earnings growth assumptions." ], "target_price_6m": 68, "target_price_12m": 63.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 351, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:19.444Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2060, "outputTokens": 4677, "costUsd": 0.002541 } }, { "id": "cmnr14hg804ulp6580033aneh", "runId": "cmnr14hg604uip658zod0n4a9", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"LNT-Equity-Model-v1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"LNT\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 72.99,\n \"target_price_6m\": 74.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 75.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.70,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Solid 11% ROE and 17% YoY EPS growth demonstrate strong recent operational execution.\",\n \"Transition to renewables requires heavy capex, driving negative free cash flow of -$1.32B.\",\n \"Current valuation at 20.6x P/E appears fully priced compared to historical utility averages.\",\n \"Reliable 3.1% dividend yield provides downside protection but lacks high-growth appeal.\",\n \"Regulatory risks in Iowa and Wisconsin could pressure future authorized returns on equity.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Rate case outcomes\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Renewable energy capex\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Inflation on operating costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Dividend growth rate\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Weather normalization\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Adverse regulatory decisions in key jurisdictions lowering allowed ROE.\",\n \"Higher-for-longer interest rates increasing debt servicing costs on $12B debt load.\",\n \"Cost overruns or delays in renewable energy infrastructure projects.\",\n \"Macroeconomic slowdown reducing commercial and industrial electricity demand.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.045,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.24,\n \"wacc\": 0.065,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 18.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 62.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Adverse rate case outcomes and higher interest rates compress valuation multiples.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 75.00,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Constructive regulatory environment and steady rate base growth support modest upside.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 82.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Favorable regulatory rulings and accelerated renewable investments drive premium multiple expansion.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a blend of historical P/E (18x-20x) and DCF. At 72.99, LNT is near fair value, yielding a HOLD recommendation. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "LNT-Equity-Model-v1", "risks": [ "Adverse regulatory decisions in key jurisdictions lowering allowed ROE.", "Higher-for-longer interest rates increasing debt servicing costs on $12B debt load.", "Cost overruns or delays in renewable energy infrastructure projects.", "Macroeconomic slowdown reducing commercial and industrial electricity demand." ], "ticker": "LNT", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Constructive regulatory environment and steady rate base growth support modest upside.", "target_price": 75 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Adverse rate case outcomes and higher interest rates compress valuation multiples.", "target_price": 62 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Favorable regulatory rulings and accelerated renewable investments drive premium multiple expansion.", "target_price": 82 } }, "confidence": 0.7, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.065, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.045, "terminal_multiple": 18.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.24 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Rate case outcomes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Renewable energy capex", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Inflation on operating costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend growth rate", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Weather normalization", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a blend of historical P/E (18x-20x) and DCF. At 72.99, LNT is near fair value, yielding a HOLD recommendation. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 72.99, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Solid 11% ROE and 17% YoY EPS growth demonstrate strong recent operational execution.", "Transition to renewables requires heavy capex, driving negative free cash flow of -$1.32B.", "Current valuation at 20.6x P/E appears fully priced compared to historical utility averages.", "Reliable 3.1% dividend yield provides downside protection but lacks high-growth appeal.", "Regulatory risks in Iowa and Wisconsin could pressure future authorized returns on equity." ], "target_price_6m": 74, "target_price_12m": 75 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 27801, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:19.444Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2411, "outputTokens": 833, "costUsd": 0.014818 } }, { "id": "cmnr14hg804ujp658gcrd12wk", "runId": "cmnr14hg604uip658zod0n4a9", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation v2\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"LNT\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":72.99,\"target_price_6m\":74.0,\"target_price_12m\":75.0,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.64,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Regulated utility earnings support steady but modest growth.\",\"Shares trade near 52-week high with limited rerating room.\",\"Dividend yield adds return, but not enough for clear buy.\",\"Heavy capex drives negative free cash flow and leverage.\",\"Defensive beta and constructive margins offset valuation pressure.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Rate-base growth from grid investment\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Allowed ROE and rate-case outcomes\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"High debt and funding needs\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Negative free cash flow during capex cycle\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend yield support\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Low beta defensive demand\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Weather and load variability\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest-rate sensitivity for utilities\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Adverse rate decisions or regulatory lag\",\"Higher interest rates compress utility valuations\",\"Construction overruns on generation or grid projects\",\"Weather-driven demand swings\",\"Equity issuance dilutes returns\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":5.0,\"ebit_margin_target\":23.0,\"wacc\":6.7,\"terminal_multiple\":18.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":63.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Rates stay higher and regulatory lag pressures valuation.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":75.0,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Steady rate-base growth and dividend support mostly offset leverage.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":84.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Favorable rate outcomes and lower yields drive multiple expansion.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended utility valuation using forward earnings, dividend support, and balance-sheet risk; snapshot fields kept authoritative. No sell-side targets used. HOLD fits ~3% 12M upside and mixed evidence. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation v2", "risks": [ "Adverse rate decisions or regulatory lag", "Higher interest rates compress utility valuations", "Construction overruns on generation or grid projects", "Weather-driven demand swings", "Equity issuance dilutes returns" ], "ticker": "LNT", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady rate-base growth and dividend support mostly offset leverage.", "target_price": 75 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Rates stay higher and regulatory lag pressures valuation.", "target_price": 63 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Favorable rate outcomes and lower yields drive multiple expansion.", "target_price": 84 } }, "confidence": 0.64, "assumptions": { "wacc": 6.7, "revenue_cagr_3y": 5, "terminal_multiple": 18.5, "ebit_margin_target": 23 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Rate-base growth from grid investment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Allowed ROE and rate-case outcomes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "High debt and funding needs", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Negative free cash flow during capex cycle", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend yield support", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Low beta defensive demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Weather and load variability", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Interest-rate sensitivity for utilities", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended utility valuation using forward earnings, dividend support, and balance-sheet risk; snapshot fields kept authoritative. No sell-side targets used. HOLD fits ~3% 12M upside and mixed evidence. not investment advice", "current_price": 72.99, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Regulated utility earnings support steady but modest growth.", "Shares trade near 52-week high with limited rerating room.", "Dividend yield adds return, but not enough for clear buy.", "Heavy capex drives negative free cash flow and leverage.", "Defensive beta and constructive margins offset valuation pressure." ], "target_price_6m": 74, "target_price_12m": 75 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_08e5ad0c450a33c80069d75ae140688197b3ce16e71bc45b68", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 19639, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:19.444Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2330, "outputTokens": 1022, "costUsd": 0.018385 } }, { "id": "cmnr14hg804ump658vxqpn6gx", "runId": "cmnr14hg604uip658zod0n4a9", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Utility DCF Valuation Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"LNT\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 72.99,\n \"target_price_6m\": 76.5,\n \"target_price_12m\": 81.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Regulated ops deliver predictable cash flows\",\n \"Capex drives rate base and earnings growth\",\n \"Renewables shift aligns with policy tailwinds\",\n \"Low beta provides portfolio defensiveness\",\n \"Dividend yield supports total shareholder return\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Rate base expansion via capex\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Renewable energy investments\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory rate case outcomes\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Dividend growth consistency\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Leverage and financing costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Service territory demand growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Weather and operational risks\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Rising interest rates raise debt costs\",\n \"Regulatory disallowance of capex\",\n \"Extreme weather events\",\n \"Inflation eroding margins\",\n \"Slower economic growth in region\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.055,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.24,\n \"wacc\": 0.065,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 16.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 67.0,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Higher rates and regulatory delays compress valuation.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 81.0,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Steady execution on planned clean energy investments.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 92.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated demand from data centers and favorable rates.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF using revenue CAGR, target EBIT margin, 6.5% WACC and 16.5x terminal multiple. 11% expected 12M return supports BUY per rubric. Consensus noted but not used for targets. not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "Utility DCF Valuation Model", "risks": [ "Rising interest rates raise debt costs", "Regulatory disallowance of capex", "Extreme weather events", "Inflation eroding margins", "Slower economic growth in region" ], "ticker": "LNT", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady execution on planned clean energy investments.", "target_price": 81 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Higher rates and regulatory delays compress valuation.", "target_price": 67 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated demand from data centers and favorable rates.", "target_price": 92 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.065, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.055, "terminal_multiple": 16.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.24 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Rate base expansion via capex", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Renewable energy investments", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory rate case outcomes", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend growth consistency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Leverage and financing costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Service territory demand growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Weather and operational risks", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF using revenue CAGR, target EBIT margin, 6.5% WACC and 16.5x terminal multiple. 11% expected 12M return supports BUY per rubric. Consensus noted but not used for targets. not investment advice.", "current_price": 72.99, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Regulated ops deliver predictable cash flows", "Capex drives rate base and earnings growth", "Renewables shift aligns with policy tailwinds", "Low beta provides portfolio defensiveness", "Dividend yield supports total shareholder return" ], "target_price_6m": 76.5, "target_price_12m": 81 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "c37b9819-7a6a-946d-92b2-6084b3e75994", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 19215, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:19.444Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2671, "outputTokens": 3442, "costUsd": 0.059643 } } ] } }