{ "run": { "id": "cmnr14dkr04oep658kgue65c7", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr14di604o4p658nikpvau5", "ticker": "KKR", "snapshotId": "cmnr14djf04o7p6588yarz4zw", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:14.424Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr14djf04o7p6588yarz4zw", "assetId": "cmnr14di604o4p658nikpvau5", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "open": null, "price": 93.96, "dayLow": 92.37, "volume": 4488599, "dayHigh": 96.45, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 90.75, "week52Low": 82.67, "week52High": 153.87 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 50.788844621514, "beta": 1.62815726031135, "epsTTM": 2.51, "fcfTTM": 567687000, "growth": { "epsYoy": -0.2766570605187321, "revenueYoy": -0.1103535045824025 }, "sector": "Investment Advice", "margins": { "net": 0.1217851218643438, "gross": null, "operating": 0.05699637803698842 }, "website": "http://kkr.com", "industry": "Private equity", "pegRatio": -1.83580511288181, "ebitdaTTM": 6194096000, "forwardPe": 21.2466666666667, "marketCap": 91100000000, "totalCash": 17151790000, "totalDebt": 49117744000, "debtEquity": 1.58943927009803, "quickRatio": null, "revenueTTM": 19464307000, "companyName": "KKR & Co. Inc.", "priceToBook": 1.39039751021877, "currentRatio": null, "dividendYield": 0.0057263205786827, "returnOnAssets": 0.005779586154789042, "returnOnEquity": 0.0767076553946451, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "KKR & Co. Inc., also known as Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co., is a global investment firm that serves institutional investors, wealth investors, family offices, and companies across a variety of industries and markets. As of 2026, KKR has $744 billion of assets under management (AUM).", "enterpriseValue": 145466759808.8, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 4834, "sharesOutstanding": 891550894, "enterpriseToEbitda": 23.48474415133379, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 7.473513431986045, "operatingCashflowTTM": 477760000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:14.379Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr14dku04ogp658d21pu0of", "runId": "cmnr14dkr04oep658kgue65c7", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"KKR\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":93.96,\"target_price_6m\":103,\"target_price_12m\":112,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.6,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"KKR trades 39% below 52-week high presenting a value entry point\",\"$744B AUM platform provides durable fee-related earnings base\",\"Forward PE of 21x implies significant earnings recovery ahead\",\"High beta amplifies downside but also recovery upside potential\",\"Secular tailwinds in private credit and infrastructure fundraising persist\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"AUM growth trajectory and fundraising momentum\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Fee-related earnings normalization from depressed TTM levels\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Macro uncertainty and potential recession impacting deal activity\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Private credit expansion and insurance channel (Global Atlantic)\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Elevated leverage at 1.59x debt/equity constraining flexibility\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Carried interest realization timing dependent on exit markets\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Retail/wealth management channel growth opportunity\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Market-driven mark-to-market on balance sheet investments\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Prolonged equity market downturn reduces AUM and performance fees\",\"Fundraising slowdown as LPs face denominator effect or risk aversion\",\"Rising rates or credit stress impairs portfolio company valuations\",\"Regulatory headwinds on private equity fee structures or leverage\",\"Concentrated balance sheet exposure amplifies earnings volatility\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.12,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.35,\"wacc\":0.11,\"terminal_multiple\":22},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":75,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Recession drives AUM declines, deal/exit markets freeze, earnings stay depressed.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":112,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Gradual macro stabilization, AUM grows to ~$800B+, earnings normalize toward $5/share.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":145,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Strong market recovery, fundraising acceleration, robust carry realizations drive re-rating.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Normalized earnings-power approach for alt asset manager. Used forward PE ~22x on estimated normalized EPS of ~$5.00 for 12M target. TTM earnings depressed by investment losses and weak realizations; forward PE of 21x confirms street expects recovery. AUM of $744B supports FRE stability. High beta (1.63) and macro uncertainty moderate confidence to 0.60. Peer comps (BX, APO) trade 20-28x forward. Probability-weighted scenario value ~$112 consistent with base. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Prolonged equity market downturn reduces AUM and performance fees", "Fundraising slowdown as LPs face denominator effect or risk aversion", "Rising rates or credit stress impairs portfolio company valuations", "Regulatory headwinds on private equity fee structures or leverage", "Concentrated balance sheet exposure amplifies earnings volatility" ], "ticker": "KKR", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Gradual macro stabilization, AUM grows to ~$800B+, earnings normalize toward $5/share.", "target_price": 112 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Recession drives AUM declines, deal/exit markets freeze, earnings stay depressed.", "target_price": 75 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong market recovery, fundraising acceleration, robust carry realizations drive re-rating.", "target_price": 145 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.11, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.12, "terminal_multiple": 22, "ebit_margin_target": 0.35 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "AUM growth trajectory and fundraising momentum", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fee-related earnings normalization from depressed TTM levels", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macro uncertainty and potential recession impacting deal activity", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Private credit expansion and insurance channel (Global Atlantic)", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Elevated leverage at 1.59x debt/equity constraining flexibility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Carried interest realization timing dependent on exit markets", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Retail/wealth management channel growth opportunity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Market-driven mark-to-market on balance sheet investments", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Normalized earnings-power approach for alt asset manager. Used forward PE ~22x on estimated normalized EPS of ~$5.00 for 12M target. TTM earnings depressed by investment losses and weak realizations; forward PE of 21x confirms street expects recovery. AUM of $744B supports FRE stability. High beta (1.63) and macro uncertainty moderate confidence to 0.60. Peer comps (BX, APO) trade 20-28x forward. Probability-weighted scenario value ~$112 consistent with base. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 93.96, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "KKR trades 39% below 52-week high presenting a value entry point", "$744B AUM platform provides durable fee-related earnings base", "Forward PE of 21x implies significant earnings recovery ahead", "High beta amplifies downside but also recovery upside potential", "Secular tailwinds in private credit and infrastructure fundraising persist" ], "target_price_6m": 103, "target_price_12m": 112 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 43473, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:14.424Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3566, "outputTokens": 1877, "costUsd": 0.064755 } }, { "id": "cmnr14dku04ojp658hqilqcxq", "runId": "cmnr14dkr04oep658kgue65c7", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"equity_research_analyst\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"KKR\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 93.96,\n \"target_price_6m\": 95.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 97.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Large AUM base supports stable fee income.\",\n \"Recent EPS and revenue declines signal headwinds.\",\n \"Forward P/E implies market expects earnings recovery.\",\n \"High beta indicates sensitivity to market cycles.\",\n \"Private equity cycle near peak adds downside risk.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"AUM Growth Rate\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Market Equity Returns\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Interest Rate Levels\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Economic Growth\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Fee Compression Risk\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Operational Efficiency\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory Environment\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Economic downturn impacting investment returns.\",\n \"Rising cost of capital due to higher interest rates.\",\n \"Increased regulatory scrutiny on private equity firms.\",\n \"Competition leading to fee pressure.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.03,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.065,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 20.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 85.0, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Market downturn and poor performance reduce AUM and fees.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 97.0, \"prob\": 0.5, \"notes\": \"Modest earnings recovery with stable AUM growth.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 110.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong market rally boosts performance fees and AUM.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation uses forward earnings multiple with 3% revenue growth and 6.5% EBIT margin assumptions. HOLD due to modest 3.2% upside and high uncertainty. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "equity_research_analyst", "risks": [ "Economic downturn impacting investment returns.", "Rising cost of capital due to higher interest rates.", "Increased regulatory scrutiny on private equity firms.", "Competition leading to fee pressure." ], "ticker": "KKR", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Modest earnings recovery with stable AUM growth.", "target_price": 97 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Market downturn and poor performance reduce AUM and fees.", "target_price": 85 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong market rally boosts performance fees and AUM.", "target_price": 110 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.03, "terminal_multiple": 20, "ebit_margin_target": 0.065 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "AUM Growth Rate", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Market Equity Returns", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest Rate Levels", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Economic Growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fee Compression Risk", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operational Efficiency", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory Environment", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation uses forward earnings multiple with 3% revenue growth and 6.5% EBIT margin assumptions. HOLD due to modest 3.2% upside and high uncertainty. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 93.96, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Large AUM base supports stable fee income.", "Recent EPS and revenue declines signal headwinds.", "Forward P/E implies market expects earnings recovery.", "High beta indicates sensitivity to market cycles.", "Private equity cycle near peak adds downside risk." ], "target_price_6m": 95, "target_price_12m": 97 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 361, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:14.424Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2078, "outputTokens": 4726, "costUsd": 0.002567 } }, { "id": "cmnr14dku04ohp658tinvlanr", "runId": "cmnr14dkr04oep658kgue65c7", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Analyst v1.0\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"KKR\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 93.96,\n \"target_price_6m\": 102.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 110.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.7,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Significant pullback from 52-week highs offers an attractive entry point for long-term investors.\",\n \"Sticky fee-related earnings provide a strong floor despite recent realization headwinds.\",\n \"Forward P/E of 21x is reasonable for a premier alternative asset manager.\",\n \"Capital markets recovery will drive a sharp rebound in performance fees and exits.\",\n \"High leverage and delayed private equity exits remain key near-term macroeconomic risks.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Fee-Related Earnings (FRE) Growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Private Equity Realizations\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest Rate Environment\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Fundraising Momentum\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Global M&A Activity\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Debt Servicing Costs\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged high interest rates dampening M&A and exit environments.\",\n \"Slower than expected fundraising in a crowded alternatives market.\",\n \"Mark-to-market write-downs on existing private equity portfolios.\",\n \"Regulatory scrutiny on private credit and alternative asset managers.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.08,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.45,\n \"wacc\": 0.095,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 22.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 75.0,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Prolonged slump in capital markets delays exits and compresses multiples.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 110.0,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Gradual recovery in realizations and steady FRE growth drive multiple expansion.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 135.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Robust M&A rebound accelerates performance fees and pushes stock toward previous highs.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a 22x target multiple on forward EPS estimates, supported by a sum-of-the-parts approach valuing FRE and net accrued performance fees. Recommendation is BUY due to ~17% upside. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Analyst v1.0", "risks": [ "Prolonged high interest rates dampening M&A and exit environments.", "Slower than expected fundraising in a crowded alternatives market.", "Mark-to-market write-downs on existing private equity portfolios.", "Regulatory scrutiny on private credit and alternative asset managers." ], "ticker": "KKR", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Gradual recovery in realizations and steady FRE growth drive multiple expansion.", "target_price": 110 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Prolonged slump in capital markets delays exits and compresses multiples.", "target_price": 75 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Robust M&A rebound accelerates performance fees and pushes stock toward previous highs.", "target_price": 135 } }, "confidence": 0.7, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 22, "ebit_margin_target": 0.45 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Fee-Related Earnings (FRE) Growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Private Equity Realizations", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest Rate Environment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Fundraising Momentum", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Global M&A Activity", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt Servicing Costs", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a 22x target multiple on forward EPS estimates, supported by a sum-of-the-parts approach valuing FRE and net accrued performance fees. Recommendation is BUY due to ~17% upside. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 93.96, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Significant pullback from 52-week highs offers an attractive entry point for long-term investors.", "Sticky fee-related earnings provide a strong floor despite recent realization headwinds.", "Forward P/E of 21x is reasonable for a premier alternative asset manager.", "Capital markets recovery will drive a sharp rebound in performance fees and exits.", "High leverage and delayed private equity exits remain key near-term macroeconomic risks." ], "target_price_6m": 102, "target_price_12m": 110 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 25904, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:14.424Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2411, "outputTokens": 823, "costUsd": 0.014698 } }, { "id": "cmnr14dku04ofp658aoc3mwyg", "runId": "cmnr14dkr04oep658kgue65c7", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation v2\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"KKR\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":93.96,\"target_price_6m\":101,\"target_price_12m\":108,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.64,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Scaled $744B AUM platform supports durable fee-related earnings growth.\",\"Insurance and private wealth channels expand permanent capital and fundraising diversification.\",\"Shares trade well below 52-week high near 1.4x book.\",\"Near-term GAAP earnings remain volatile as realizations and marks lag.\",\"Risk/reward favors upside if deployment and exits normalize over 12 months.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Fee-paying AUM growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Global Atlantic expansion\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Private wealth inflows\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Realization and carry rebound\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Capital deployment in dislocation\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Fundraising slowdown\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Credit stress and defaults\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Public market volatility\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Realization fees stay depressed longer.\",\"Fundraising slows as LP liquidity remains tight.\",\"Credit losses hit insurance and private credit portfolios.\",\"Market volatility reduces AUM marks and deployment confidence.\",\"Regulatory or tax changes pressure alternative managers.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.09,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.26,\"wacc\":0.105,\"terminal_multiple\":17},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":76,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Exit activity stays muted and fundraising remains soft.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":108,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"AUM and fees grow steadily while realizations partially recover.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":132,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Capital markets reopen and insurance and wealth inflows accelerate.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Uses snapshot quote/fundamentals and a blended normalized earnings plus P/B cross-check; no sell-side targets used. BUY reflects ~15% 12M upside versus current price, tempered by cyclical earnings volatility and leverage. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation v2", "risks": [ "Realization fees stay depressed longer.", "Fundraising slows as LP liquidity remains tight.", "Credit losses hit insurance and private credit portfolios.", "Market volatility reduces AUM marks and deployment confidence.", "Regulatory or tax changes pressure alternative managers." ], "ticker": "KKR", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "AUM and fees grow steadily while realizations partially recover.", "target_price": 108 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Exit activity stays muted and fundraising remains soft.", "target_price": 76 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Capital markets reopen and insurance and wealth inflows accelerate.", "target_price": 132 } }, "confidence": 0.64, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.105, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.09, "terminal_multiple": 17, "ebit_margin_target": 0.26 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Fee-paying AUM growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Global Atlantic expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Private wealth inflows", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Realization and carry rebound", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Capital deployment in dislocation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fundraising slowdown", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Credit stress and defaults", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Public market volatility", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Uses snapshot quote/fundamentals and a blended normalized earnings plus P/B cross-check; no sell-side targets used. BUY reflects ~15% 12M upside versus current price, tempered by cyclical earnings volatility and leverage. not investment advice", "current_price": 93.96, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Scaled $744B AUM platform supports durable fee-related earnings growth.", "Insurance and private wealth channels expand permanent capital and fundraising diversification.", "Shares trade well below 52-week high near 1.4x book.", "Near-term GAAP earnings remain volatile as realizations and marks lag.", "Risk/reward favors upside if deployment and exits normalize over 12 months." ], "target_price_6m": 101, "target_price_12m": 108 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0248daf0a06e60140069d75a95ff148193b64937e110593870", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 45691, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:14.424Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2350, "outputTokens": 2553, "costUsd": 0.039855 } }, { "id": "cmnr14dku04oip658lk3ys8rm", "runId": "cmnr14dkr04oep658kgue65c7", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"KKR\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 93.96,\n \"target_price_6m\": 105,\n \"target_price_12m\": 118,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Stable fees from $744B AUM provide earnings visibility\",\n \"Negative YOY growth reflects tough PE exit environment\",\n \"Forward P/E of 21x anticipates transaction recovery\",\n \"Diversified credit and infra platforms reduce risk\",\n \"DCF supports upside with 9% revenue CAGR assumption\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"AUM growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Fee-related earnings\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Carried interest realizations\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Economic cycle sensitivity\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory scrutiny\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Portfolio diversification\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Private markets competition\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Decline in asset values reducing fees\",\n \"Lower transaction activity hitting carry\",\n \"High leverage exposing to rate hikes\",\n \"Intense competition from rivals\",\n \"Regulatory changes in alternatives\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.09,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.28,\n \"wacc\": 0.095,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 16\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 80,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Recession hits AUM and delays exits.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 118,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Steady fee growth with moderate recovery.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 145,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Strong markets boost fundraising and carry.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF using revenue CAGR, target EBIT margin, WACC and terminal multiple. 12M target implies 26% upside; BUY fits rubric given mixed growth and medium conviction. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Decline in asset values reducing fees", "Lower transaction activity hitting carry", "High leverage exposing to rate hikes", "Intense competition from rivals", "Regulatory changes in alternatives" ], "ticker": "KKR", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady fee growth with moderate recovery.", "target_price": 118 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Recession hits AUM and delays exits.", "target_price": 80 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong markets boost fundraising and carry.", "target_price": 145 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.09, "terminal_multiple": 16, "ebit_margin_target": 0.28 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "AUM growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fee-related earnings", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Carried interest realizations", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Economic cycle sensitivity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory scrutiny", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Portfolio diversification", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Private markets competition", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF using revenue CAGR, target EBIT margin, WACC and terminal multiple. 12M target implies 26% upside; BUY fits rubric given mixed growth and medium conviction. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 93.96, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stable fees from $744B AUM provide earnings visibility", "Negative YOY growth reflects tough PE exit environment", "Forward P/E of 21x anticipates transaction recovery", "Diversified credit and infra platforms reduce risk", "DCF supports upside with 9% revenue CAGR assumption" ], "target_price_6m": 105, "target_price_12m": 118 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "fd7c11f3-b4ea-9d63-9525-19e18eeec347", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 22679, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:14.424Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2691, "outputTokens": 3924, "costUsd": 0.066933 } } ] } }