{ "run": { "id": "cmnr14c3304kgp6585xiz7w0v", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr14b9l04jtp6587mvok4o9", "ticker": "JBL", "snapshotId": "cmnr14c2q04jyp658bkmd5ywq", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:12.493Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr14c2q04jyp658bkmd5ywq", "assetId": "cmnr14b9l04jtp6587mvok4o9", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "open": null, "price": 287.14, "dayLow": 281.705, "volume": 1021007, "dayHigh": 291.435, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 272.85, "week52Low": 117.74, "week52High": 291.435 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 94.8611111111111, "beta": 1.30088867757158, "epsTTM": 0.36, "fcfTTM": 131132000, "growth": { "epsYoy": -0.4708994708994709, "revenueYoy": -0.7220991879739614 }, "sector": "Printed Circuit Boards", "margins": { "net": 0.02692586331803912, "gross": 0.09007486114465105, "operating": 0.04515817435402077 }, "website": "http://jabil.com", "industry": "Electronics Manufacturing Services", "pegRatio": -1.17780574198359, "ebitdaTTM": 1185941000, "forwardPe": 8.89322916666667, "marketCap": 14400000000, "totalCash": 1830000000, "totalDebt": 4376000000, "debtEquity": 1.53400714591716, "quickRatio": 0.2093038957531564, "revenueTTM": 8282000000, "companyName": "JABIL INC", "priceToBook": 2.83641217618723, "currentRatio": 1.013368442373911, "dividendYield": 0.00974624467460349, "returnOnAssets": 0.01081054876866395, "returnOnEquity": 0.0297628774461958, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Jabil Inc. is an American multinational manufacturing company involved in the design, engineering, and manufacturing of electronic circuit board assemblies and systems, along with supply chain services, primarily serving original equipment manufacturers. It is headquartered in the Gateway area of St. Petersburg, Florida. It is one of the largest companies in the Tampa Bay area.", "enterpriseValue": 6562702950, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 138000, "sharesOutstanding": 105595267, "enterpriseToEbitda": 5.533751636885815, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 0.7924055723255252, "operatingCashflowTTM": 734000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:12.482Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr14c3504kip658mri791he", "runId": "cmnr14c3304kgp6585xiz7w0v", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Equity Research Model v1.0\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"JBL\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":287.14,\"target_price_6m\":315,\"target_price_12m\":340,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Post-mobility divestiture Jabil refocused on higher-margin end markets\",\"Forward PE of ~8.9x is significantly below EMS peer multiples\",\"Cloud/data center and healthcare verticals offer secular growth tailwinds\",\"Aggressive share buyback program supports EPS growth trajectory\",\"Elevated leverage and cyclical EMS exposure warrant moderate caution\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"AI/cloud infrastructure demand driving DMS segment growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Post-divestiture margin expansion toward higher-value services\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Aggressive capital return via buybacks supporting EPS\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Healthcare and automotive diversification\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Revenue base reset lower post-mobility divestiture\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Elevated debt-to-equity ratio of 1.53x\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Macroeconomic slowdown risk in industrial end-markets\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Forward PE re-rating potential vs current TTM distortion\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Tariff escalation could disrupt global manufacturing footprint and raise costs\",\"Customer concentration risk if key OEM relationships weaken\",\"Debt burden limits financial flexibility during cyclical downturns\",\"EMS industry margin compression from competitive pricing pressure\",\"Post-divestiture integration risks and revenue transition uncertainty\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.06,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.055,\"wacc\":0.10,\"terminal_multiple\":10.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":225,\"prob\":0.20,\"notes\":\"Macro slowdown compresses forward PE to ~7x with revenue miss.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":340,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Steady organic growth, margin expansion to ~5.5%, PE re-rates to ~10.5x.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":420,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"AI infrastructure supercycle accelerates revenue, PE expands to ~13x.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Valuation anchored on forward PE (snapshot fwd PE 8.9x) vs EMS peer range 10-14x. TTM EPS ($0.36) distorted by mobility divestiture; forward earnings (~$32/sh) used as primary anchor. EV/EBITDA of 5.5x also supports undervaluation thesis. 12M base target implies ~10.5x forward PE, consistent with mid-cycle EMS multiples. Confidence moderate due to post-divestiture transition uncertainty and macro risk. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model v1.0", "risks": [ "Tariff escalation could disrupt global manufacturing footprint and raise costs", "Customer concentration risk if key OEM relationships weaken", "Debt burden limits financial flexibility during cyclical downturns", "EMS industry margin compression from competitive pricing pressure", "Post-divestiture integration risks and revenue transition uncertainty" ], "ticker": "JBL", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady organic growth, margin expansion to ~5.5%, PE re-rates to ~10.5x.", "target_price": 340 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Macro slowdown compresses forward PE to ~7x with revenue miss.", "target_price": 225 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "AI infrastructure supercycle accelerates revenue, PE expands to ~13x.", "target_price": 420 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.1, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 10.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.055 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "AI/cloud infrastructure demand driving DMS segment growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Post-divestiture margin expansion toward higher-value services", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Aggressive capital return via buybacks supporting EPS", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Healthcare and automotive diversification", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Revenue base reset lower post-mobility divestiture", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Elevated debt-to-equity ratio of 1.53x", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Macroeconomic slowdown risk in industrial end-markets", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Forward PE re-rating potential vs current TTM distortion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation anchored on forward PE (snapshot fwd PE 8.9x) vs EMS peer range 10-14x. TTM EPS ($0.36) distorted by mobility divestiture; forward earnings (~$32/sh) used as primary anchor. EV/EBITDA of 5.5x also supports undervaluation thesis. 12M base target implies ~10.5x forward PE, consistent with mid-cycle EMS multiples. Confidence moderate due to post-divestiture transition uncertainty and macro risk. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 287.14, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Post-mobility divestiture Jabil refocused on higher-margin end markets", "Forward PE of ~8.9x is significantly below EMS peer multiples", "Cloud/data center and healthcare verticals offer secular growth tailwinds", "Aggressive share buyback program supports EPS growth trajectory", "Elevated leverage and cyclical EMS exposure warrant moderate caution" ], "target_price_6m": 315, "target_price_12m": 340 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 35575, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:12.493Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3589, "outputTokens": 1678, "costUsd": 0.059895 } }, { "id": "cmnr14c3504klp658kj28bsxv", "runId": "cmnr14c3304kgp6585xiz7w0v", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI_Equity_Model_JBL\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"JBL\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 287.14,\n \"target_price_6m\": 280.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 290.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.4,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Recent revenue and earnings declines pose near-term challenges.\",\n \"Forward P/E suggests potential undervaluation if earnings recover.\",\n \"High debt and low liquidity increase financial risk.\",\n \"EMS industry recovery could drive moderate growth.\",\n \"Valuation appears fair given mixed evidence and data inconsistencies.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"EPS Growth Recovery\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Revenue Trend Improvement\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Operating Margin Expansion\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt Levels and Servicing\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Cash Flow Generation\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Economic Cyclicality Impact\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competitive Market Pressures\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\"Prolonged economic slowdown\", \"Rising input costs\", \"Currency exchange volatility\", \"Execution risks in operational turnaround\"],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.03,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.05,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 6.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 260.0, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Continued earnings pressure and weak demand.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 290.0, \"prob\": 0.5, \"notes\": \"Moderate recovery as per assumptions.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 320.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong growth and margin expansion exceeding expectations.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF with assumed growth and margins; snapshot data inconsistencies noted; not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI_Equity_Model_JBL", "risks": [ "Prolonged economic slowdown", "Rising input costs", "Currency exchange volatility", "Execution risks in operational turnaround" ], "ticker": "JBL", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate recovery as per assumptions.", "target_price": 290 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Continued earnings pressure and weak demand.", "target_price": 260 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong growth and margin expansion exceeding expectations.", "target_price": 320 } }, "confidence": 0.4, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.03, "terminal_multiple": 6, "ebit_margin_target": 0.05 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "EPS Growth Recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Revenue Trend Improvement", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating Margin Expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt Levels and Servicing", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Cash Flow Generation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Economic Cyclicality Impact", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competitive Market Pressures", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF with assumed growth and margins; snapshot data inconsistencies noted; not investment advice.", "current_price": 287.14, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Recent revenue and earnings declines pose near-term challenges.", "Forward P/E suggests potential undervaluation if earnings recover.", "High debt and low liquidity increase financial risk.", "EMS industry recovery could drive moderate growth.", "Valuation appears fair given mixed evidence and data inconsistencies." ], "target_price_6m": 280, "target_price_12m": 290 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 319, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:12.493Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2103, "outputTokens": 4964, "costUsd": 0.002674 } }, { "id": "cmnr14c3504kjp6589t4690kt", "runId": "cmnr14c3304kgp6585xiz7w0v", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearch_JBL\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"JBL\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 287.14,\n \"target_price_6m\": 305.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 325.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.70,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Forward P/E of 8.89x indicates significant undervaluation relative to AI-driven growth potential.\",\n \"Divestiture of Mobility segment improves overall margin profile and reduces customer concentration risk.\",\n \"Strong positioning in AI server manufacturing provides secular tailwinds for the Enterprise segment.\",\n \"Aggressive share repurchases funded by divestiture proceeds are highly accretive to forward EPS.\",\n \"Healthcare and automotive segments offer defensive diversification against consumer electronics cyclicality.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"AI Server Demand\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Share Repurchase Program\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operating Margin Expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Macroeconomic Slowdown\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"EV/Automotive Market Softness\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Healthcare Segment Growth\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Supply Chain Constraints\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Slower than expected ramp in AI infrastructure spending by hyperscalers.\",\n \"Prolonged weakness in the electric vehicle and broader automotive end-markets.\",\n \"Geopolitical tensions impacting global supply chains and manufacturing footprints.\",\n \"Integration or execution missteps in scaling new complex manufacturing lines.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.055,\n \"wacc\": 0.095,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 10.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 240.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"AI demand falters, auto weakness persists, and multiple compresses to 7x forward earnings.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 325.00,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Steady AI server ramp, margins expand to 5.5%, and stock trades at 10x forward P/E.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 380.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"AI supercycle accelerates, aggressive buybacks continue, and multiple re-rates to 12x.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a 10x forward P/E applied to normalized forward EPS, supported by a 5-year DCF model. The 13% expected return aligns with a BUY rating given the margin expansion narrative. This is not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch_JBL", "risks": [ "Slower than expected ramp in AI infrastructure spending by hyperscalers.", "Prolonged weakness in the electric vehicle and broader automotive end-markets.", "Geopolitical tensions impacting global supply chains and manufacturing footprints.", "Integration or execution missteps in scaling new complex manufacturing lines." ], "ticker": "JBL", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady AI server ramp, margins expand to 5.5%, and stock trades at 10x forward P/E.", "target_price": 325 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "AI demand falters, auto weakness persists, and multiple compresses to 7x forward earnings.", "target_price": 240 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "AI supercycle accelerates, aggressive buybacks continue, and multiple re-rates to 12x.", "target_price": 380 } }, "confidence": 0.7, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 10, "ebit_margin_target": 0.055 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "AI Server Demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Share Repurchase Program", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating Margin Expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macroeconomic Slowdown", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "EV/Automotive Market Softness", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Healthcare Segment Growth", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Supply Chain Constraints", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a 10x forward P/E applied to normalized forward EPS, supported by a 5-year DCF model. The 13% expected return aligns with a BUY rating given the margin expansion narrative. This is not investment advice.", "current_price": 287.14, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Forward P/E of 8.89x indicates significant undervaluation relative to AI-driven growth potential.", "Divestiture of Mobility segment improves overall margin profile and reduces customer concentration risk.", "Strong positioning in AI server manufacturing provides secular tailwinds for the Enterprise segment.", "Aggressive share repurchases funded by divestiture proceeds are highly accretive to forward EPS.", "Healthcare and automotive segments offer defensive diversification against consumer electronics cyclicality." ], "target_price_6m": 305, "target_price_12m": 325 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 25466, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:12.493Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2466, "outputTokens": 894, "costUsd": 0.01566 } }, { "id": "cmnr14c3504khp6586ug953hy", "runId": "cmnr14c3304kgp6585xiz7w0v", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation v2\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"JBL\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":287.14,\"target_price_6m\":308,\"target_price_12m\":325,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.64,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Forward P/E remains low versus broader market and Jabil's mix improvement.\",\"Buybacks and cash generation can drive double-digit EPS growth.\",\"Diversified EMS exposure reduces reliance on any single end market.\",\"Thin margins and working-capital intensity limit downside protection.\",\"Near highs, further upside requires clean execution and sustained demand.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"AI/datacenter program wins\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Share repurchases\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Healthcare/industrial mix\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Margin discipline\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Customer concentration\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Macro inventory resets\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Tariff/geopolitical shifts\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Leverage and liquidity\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Demand softness in cloud, automotive, or industrial markets\",\"Execution missteps on complex programs compress margins\",\"Customer concentration and pricing pressure reduce earnings\",\"Tariffs, trade restrictions, or supply disruptions raise costs\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":4.5,\"ebit_margin_target\":5.3,\"wacc\":9.0,\"terminal_multiple\":10},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":240,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Demand softens and valuation stays near current levels.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":325,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Mix improves modestly and buybacks lift EPS.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":380,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"AI and cloud ramps accelerate with better margins.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Base case uses normalized forward EPS and a 10x terminal multiple, cross-checked against snapshot forwardPe 8.9x. Snapshot TTM revenue/EPS and EV fields look internally inconsistent, so I weighted forward valuation and margin assumptions more heavily. Recommendation reflects ~13% 12M upside. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation v2", "risks": [ "Demand softness in cloud, automotive, or industrial markets", "Execution missteps on complex programs compress margins", "Customer concentration and pricing pressure reduce earnings", "Tariffs, trade restrictions, or supply disruptions raise costs" ], "ticker": "JBL", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Mix improves modestly and buybacks lift EPS.", "target_price": 325 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Demand softens and valuation stays near current levels.", "target_price": 240 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "AI and cloud ramps accelerate with better margins.", "target_price": 380 } }, "confidence": 0.64, "assumptions": { "wacc": 9, "revenue_cagr_3y": 4.5, "terminal_multiple": 10, "ebit_margin_target": 5.3 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "AI/datacenter program wins", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Share repurchases", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Healthcare/industrial mix", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Margin discipline", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Customer concentration", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Macro inventory resets", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Tariff/geopolitical shifts", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Leverage and liquidity", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Base case uses normalized forward EPS and a 10x terminal multiple, cross-checked against snapshot forwardPe 8.9x. Snapshot TTM revenue/EPS and EV fields look internally inconsistent, so I weighted forward valuation and margin assumptions more heavily. Recommendation reflects ~13% 12M upside. not investment advice", "current_price": 287.14, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Forward P/E remains low versus broader market and Jabil's mix improvement.", "Buybacks and cash generation can drive double-digit EPS growth.", "Diversified EMS exposure reduces reliance on any single end market.", "Thin margins and working-capital intensity limit downside protection.", "Near highs, further upside requires clean execution and sustained demand." ], "target_price_6m": 308, "target_price_12m": 325 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0a22f377fac883d20069d75a5ffbc481939ad4b28e99d86eea", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 56127, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:12.493Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2373, "outputTokens": 2945, "costUsd": 0.045383 } }, { "id": "cmnr14c3504kkp658h0poknqp", "runId": "cmnr14c3304kgp6585xiz7w0v", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"JBL\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 287.14,\n \"target_price_6m\": 305,\n \"target_price_12m\": 335,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Attractive 8.9x forward PE signals undervaluation\",\n \"AI demand to drive electronics manufacturing recovery\",\n \"Margin expansion from operational efficiencies expected\",\n \"Cyclical industry and recent revenue drop add risks\",\n \"High debt balanced by solid cash flow generation\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"AI and tech capex demand\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Forward valuation appeal\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"EBIT margin recovery\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"EMS sector cyclicality\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Elevated debt levels\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Supply chain volatility\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operating cash flow strength\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Customer diversification\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged revenue contraction\",\n \"Inability to restore margins\",\n \"Geopolitical supply chain issues\",\n \"Higher interest expense impact\",\n \"Intensified EMS competition\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.06,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.065,\n \"wacc\": 0.095,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 14\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 220,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Extended weakness with no margin rebound.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 335,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Gradual recovery matching forward earnings.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 410,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Strong AI tailwinds accelerate growth.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Simple 3-stage model using revenue CAGR, target EBIT margins, WACC and terminal multiple; forward PE supports modest upside. not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Prolonged revenue contraction", "Inability to restore margins", "Geopolitical supply chain issues", "Higher interest expense impact", "Intensified EMS competition" ], "ticker": "JBL", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Gradual recovery matching forward earnings.", "target_price": 335 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Extended weakness with no margin rebound.", "target_price": 220 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong AI tailwinds accelerate growth.", "target_price": 410 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 14, "ebit_margin_target": 0.065 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "AI and tech capex demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Forward valuation appeal", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "EBIT margin recovery", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "EMS sector cyclicality", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Elevated debt levels", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Supply chain volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operating cash flow strength", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Customer diversification", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Simple 3-stage model using revenue CAGR, target EBIT margins, WACC and terminal multiple; forward PE supports modest upside. not investment advice.", "current_price": 287.14, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Attractive 8.9x forward PE signals undervaluation", "AI demand to drive electronics manufacturing recovery", "Margin expansion from operational efficiencies expected", "Cyclical industry and recent revenue drop add risks", "High debt balanced by solid cash flow generation" ], "target_price_6m": 305, "target_price_12m": 335 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "ea3bd9ec-9d05-9bbd-80b9-29f449a99cde", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 24717, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:12.493Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2715, "outputTokens": 3916, "costUsd": 0.066885 } } ] } }