{ "run": { "id": "cmnr14c2u04k2p658tg95avcw", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr14b8s04jsp658qqkcwry7", "ticker": "JBHT", "snapshotId": "cmnr14bxq04jwp658gvpfp8so", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:12.484Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr14bxq04jwp658gvpfp8so", "assetId": "cmnr14b8s04jsp658qqkcwry7", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "open": null, "price": 224.63, "dayLow": 221.13, "volume": 886893, "dayHigh": 229.1, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 217.71, "week52Low": 122.79, "week52High": 236 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 31.5487012987013, "beta": 0.954395267024296, "epsTTM": 6.16, "fcfTTM": 1155185000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.1000000000000001, "revenueYoy": -0.00728936154300035 }, "sector": "Trucking (No Local)", "margins": { "net": 0.04986058949774216, "gross": null, "operating": 0.07209451445342216 }, "website": "https://www.jbhunt.com", "industry": null, "pegRatio": 3.15487012987013, "ebitdaTTM": 1511777000, "forwardPe": 27.1804195804196, "marketCap": 10900000000, "totalCash": 17284000, "totalDebt": 1466797000, "debtEquity": 0.411433948980179, "quickRatio": 0.6084993719459548, "revenueTTM": 11999096000, "companyName": "HUNT J B TRANSPORT SERVICES INC", "priceToBook": 5.29257243515933, "currentRatio": 0.8288918295103245, "dividendYield": 0.00906528163443199, "returnOnAssets": 0.07547247404648956, "returnOnEquity": 0.167817036620445, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. is an American transportation and logistics company based in Lowell, Arkansas. It was founded by Johnnie Bryan Hunt and Johnelle Hunt in Arkansas on August 10, 1961. By 1983, J.B. Hunt had grown into the 80th largest trucking firm in the US, with $623.47 million in revenue. At that time J.B. Hunt operated 550 tractors, 1,049 trailers, and had roughly 1,050 employees. J.B. Hunt primarily operates semi-trailer trucks and provides transportation services throughout the continental US, Canada and Mexico. The company's fleet consists of over 12,000 trucks and 145,000 trailers and containers.", "enterpriseValue": 20317983600, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 34718, "sharesOutstanding": 94604083, "enterpriseToEbitda": 13.43980203429474, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 1.693292861395558, "operatingCashflowTTM": 1678272000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:12.302Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr14c2x04k6p658rj20azka", "runId": "cmnr14c2u04k2p658tg95avcw", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"JBHT\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":224.63,\"target_price_6m\":228,\"target_price_12m\":232,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.6,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Freight cycle recovery is underway but largely priced into current valuation\",\"Operating margins at 7.2% have room to recover toward historical 9-10% range\",\"Forward PE of 27x is rich for a cyclical transport name\",\"Intermodal volumes show gradual improvement but pricing power remains limited\",\"Strong FCF generation of $1.16B supports dividends and deleveraging\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Freight cycle recovery pace and truckload pricing trends\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Intermodal volume growth as rail conversions accelerate\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating margin expansion from cost discipline and mix\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Elevated valuation multiple limits upside re-rating potential\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Near-flat revenue growth (-0.7% YoY) signals sluggish demand\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Strong FCF supports shareholder returns and balance sheet\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Competitive pressure from asset-light brokerages\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Potential tariff impacts on trade volumes and shipping demand\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Prolonged freight recession delays earnings recovery beyond market expectations\",\"Intermodal competitive dynamics erode pricing power and load growth\",\"Macro slowdown or tariff escalation weakens import and domestic freight volumes\",\"PE multiple compression if growth disappoints relative to forward expectations\",\"Rising driver wages and insurance costs pressure margins\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.035,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.09,\"wacc\":0.09,\"terminal_multiple\":13},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":185,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Freight recession extends, EPS stalls near $6.50, multiple contracts to 25x.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":232,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Gradual freight recovery, EPS reaches ~$8.30, forward PE stabilizes at 28x.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":270,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Strong freight upcycle drives EPS to $9.50+, margin expansion re-rates stock.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended forward PE and EV/EBITDA valuation anchored on cycle-recovery EPS trajectory. Current 31.5x TTM PE and 13.4x EV/EBITDA embed meaningful recovery expectations. Base case assumes moderate margin normalization toward 9% EBIT margin over 2-3 years. 12M expected return of ~3.3% (price + dividend) falls within HOLD range. Market cap in snapshot ($10.9B) appears understated vs shares * price (~$21.3B); used snapshot as given per rules. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Prolonged freight recession delays earnings recovery beyond market expectations", "Intermodal competitive dynamics erode pricing power and load growth", "Macro slowdown or tariff escalation weakens import and domestic freight volumes", "PE multiple compression if growth disappoints relative to forward expectations", "Rising driver wages and insurance costs pressure margins" ], "ticker": "JBHT", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Gradual freight recovery, EPS reaches ~$8.30, forward PE stabilizes at 28x.", "target_price": 232 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Freight recession extends, EPS stalls near $6.50, multiple contracts to 25x.", "target_price": 185 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong freight upcycle drives EPS to $9.50+, margin expansion re-rates stock.", "target_price": 270 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.035, "terminal_multiple": 13, "ebit_margin_target": 0.09 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Freight cycle recovery pace and truckload pricing trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Intermodal volume growth as rail conversions accelerate", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating margin expansion from cost discipline and mix", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Elevated valuation multiple limits upside re-rating potential", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Near-flat revenue growth (-0.7% YoY) signals sluggish demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Strong FCF supports shareholder returns and balance sheet", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive pressure from asset-light brokerages", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Potential tariff impacts on trade volumes and shipping demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended forward PE and EV/EBITDA valuation anchored on cycle-recovery EPS trajectory. Current 31.5x TTM PE and 13.4x EV/EBITDA embed meaningful recovery expectations. Base case assumes moderate margin normalization toward 9% EBIT margin over 2-3 years. 12M expected return of ~3.3% (price + dividend) falls within HOLD range. Market cap in snapshot ($10.9B) appears understated vs shares * price (~$21.3B); used snapshot as given per rules. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 224.63, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Freight cycle recovery is underway but largely priced into current valuation", "Operating margins at 7.2% have room to recover toward historical 9-10% range", "Forward PE of 27x is rich for a cyclical transport name", "Intermodal volumes show gradual improvement but pricing power remains limited", "Strong FCF generation of $1.16B supports dividends and deleveraging" ], "target_price_6m": 228, "target_price_12m": 232 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 36941, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:12.484Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3681, "outputTokens": 1695, "costUsd": 0.06078 } }, { "id": "cmnr14c2x04k9p658t77rdwzq", "runId": "cmnr14c2u04k2p658tg95avcw", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"JBHT\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 224.63,\n \"target_price_6m\": 222.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 225.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\"Valuation full relative to growth prospects.\", \"Operational efficiency supports steady earnings.\", \"Cyclical exposure limits upside in slowdown.\", \"Technology adoption could improve margins over time.\", \"Balanced risk-reward justifies hold position.\"],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\"driver\": \"Economic GDP growth\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Fuel price volatility\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Industry capacity levels\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Digital freight adoption\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Labor cost trends\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Regulatory changes\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Customer demand trends\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"}\n ],\n \"risks\": [\"Economic recession reducing freight volumes.\", \"Rising interest rates increasing costs.\", \"Intense competition pressuring pricing.\", \"Fuel price spikes.\", \"Supply chain disruptions.\"],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.02,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.075,\n \"wacc\": 0.07,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 20.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\"target_price\": 200.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Economic downturn reduces demand and compresses multiples.\"},\n \"base\": {\"target_price\": 225.0, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Steady growth with modest efficiency gains.\"},\n \"bull\": {\"target_price\": 240.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong demand and margin improvements drive earnings.\"}\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on forward P/E and scenario analysis. Probability-weighted return within +/-6%, supporting HOLD. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Economic recession reducing freight volumes.", "Rising interest rates increasing costs.", "Intense competition pressuring pricing.", "Fuel price spikes.", "Supply chain disruptions." ], "ticker": "JBHT", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady growth with modest efficiency gains.", "target_price": 225 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Economic downturn reduces demand and compresses multiples.", "target_price": 200 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong demand and margin improvements drive earnings.", "target_price": 240 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.07, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.02, "terminal_multiple": 20, "ebit_margin_target": 0.075 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Economic GDP growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fuel price volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Industry capacity levels", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Digital freight adoption", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Labor cost trends", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory changes", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Customer demand trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on forward P/E and scenario analysis. Probability-weighted return within +/-6%, supporting HOLD. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 224.63, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Valuation full relative to growth prospects.", "Operational efficiency supports steady earnings.", "Cyclical exposure limits upside in slowdown.", "Technology adoption could improve margins over time.", "Balanced risk-reward justifies hold position." ], "target_price_6m": 222, "target_price_12m": 225 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [ { "error": "sanity_error: hold_scenario_return_too_directional: HOLD requires probability-weighted scenario return within +/-6%.", "attempt": 0, "rawOutputTruncated": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"JBHT\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 224.63,\n \"target_price_6m\": 225.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 220.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\"Current valuation appears full relative to growth.\", \"Earnings growth supported by operational efficiency.\", \"Cyclical exposure poses downside risk in slowdown.\", \"Tech adoption could drive long-term margin improvement.\", \"Balanced risk-reward suggests a hold position.\"],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\"driver\": \"Economic GDP growth\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Fuel price volatility\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Industry capacity levels\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Digital freight adoption\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Labor cost trends\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Regulatory changes\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Customer demand trends\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"}\n ],\n \"risks\": [\"Economic recession reducing freight volumes.\", \"Rising interest rates…" } ], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 341, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:12.484Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2819, "outputTokens": 3013, "costUsd": 0.002055 } }, { "id": "cmnr14c2x04k7p658qd9wkyi3", "runId": "cmnr14c2u04k2p658tg95avcw", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Equity Research Analyst Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"JBHT\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 224.63,\n \"target_price_6m\": 228.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 235.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Intermodal volume recovery remains the primary catalyst for earnings growth.\",\n \"Dedicated segment provides a defensive buffer against spot market volatility.\",\n \"Current valuation at 31x TTM PE reflects high recovery expectations.\",\n \"Competitive pricing in the truckload market continues to pressure brokerage margins.\",\n \"Capital expenditure discipline supports long-term ROE despite near-term cyclical headwinds.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Intermodal volume growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Freight spot rates\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Rail service reliability\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Fuel price volatility\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Labor and insurance costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Port congestion levels\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged freight recession dampening demand.\",\n \"Significant shift from rail to over-the-road trucking.\",\n \"Execution risk in scaling the Highway Services segment.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.09,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 18.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 190.0,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Extended freight downturn and margin compression.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 235.0,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Moderate recovery in intermodal volumes and stable margins.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 270.0,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Rapid cyclical rebound and significant brokerage turnaround.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation uses a 25x forward P/E multiple on projected earnings. HOLD reflects a 4.6% expected return, as current valuation already incorporates a freight recovery. Note: Snapshot market cap and price/shares show internal inconsistency; snapshot values retained per protocol. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "Equity Research Analyst Model", "risks": [ "Prolonged freight recession dampening demand.", "Significant shift from rail to over-the-road trucking.", "Execution risk in scaling the Highway Services segment." ], "ticker": "JBHT", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate recovery in intermodal volumes and stable margins.", "target_price": 235 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Extended freight downturn and margin compression.", "target_price": 190 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Rapid cyclical rebound and significant brokerage turnaround.", "target_price": 270 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 18, "ebit_margin_target": 0.09 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Intermodal volume growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Freight spot rates", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Rail service reliability", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fuel price volatility", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Labor and insurance costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Port congestion levels", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation uses a 25x forward P/E multiple on projected earnings. HOLD reflects a 4.6% expected return, as current valuation already incorporates a freight recovery. Note: Snapshot market cap and price/shares show internal inconsistency; snapshot values retained per protocol. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 224.63, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Intermodal volume recovery remains the primary catalyst for earnings growth.", "Dedicated segment provides a defensive buffer against spot market volatility.", "Current valuation at 31x TTM PE reflects high recovery expectations.", "Competitive pricing in the truckload market continues to pressure brokerage margins.", "Capital expenditure discipline supports long-term ROE despite near-term cyclical headwinds." ], "target_price_6m": 228, "target_price_12m": 235 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 20475, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:12.484Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2557, "outputTokens": 771, "costUsd": 0.014366 } }, { "id": "cmnr14c2x04k5p658xfa0j34f", "runId": "cmnr14c2u04k2p658tg95avcw", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"OpenAI o3\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"JBHT\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":224.63,\"target_price_6m\":232,\"target_price_12m\":237,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.61,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Intermodal franchise and scale support durable share gains versus truckload peers.\",\"EPS grew despite flat revenue, showing cost discipline and pricing resilience.\",\"Free cash flow is strong, but balance sheet liquidity remains modest.\",\"Current valuation already discounts a cyclical volume and margin recovery.\",\"Near-term upside exists, yet risk/reward looks roughly balanced at current levels.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Intermodal volume recovery\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Dedicated contract wins\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Truckload pricing normalization\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating ratio improvement\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Rail service quality\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Industrial demand softness\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Wage and equipment inflation\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Fuel and insurance costs\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Freight recession lasts longer than expected\",\"Rail partner service issues hurt intermodal growth\",\"Cost inflation outpaces contractual repricing\",\"Capital intensity or accidents pressure cash flow\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.045,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.082,\"wacc\":0.087,\"terminal_multiple\":13},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":180,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Volumes stay soft and margin recovery stalls.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":237,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Intermodal and dedicated recover modestly; valuation stays full.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":290,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Freight rebounds faster and margins approach prior-cycle levels.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Snapshot quote/fundamentals were authoritative. Valuation blends simple DCF with cycle-normalized 13.0x EV/EBITDA on a modest freight recovery; quality and FCF support value, but 31.5x trailing P/E limits upside, so HOLD. No sell-side targets used. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "OpenAI o3", "risks": [ "Freight recession lasts longer than expected", "Rail partner service issues hurt intermodal growth", "Cost inflation outpaces contractual repricing", "Capital intensity or accidents pressure cash flow" ], "ticker": "JBHT", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Intermodal and dedicated recover modestly; valuation stays full.", "target_price": 237 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Volumes stay soft and margin recovery stalls.", "target_price": 180 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Freight rebounds faster and margins approach prior-cycle levels.", "target_price": 290 } }, "confidence": 0.61, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.087, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.045, "terminal_multiple": 13, "ebit_margin_target": 0.082 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Intermodal volume recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dedicated contract wins", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Truckload pricing normalization", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating ratio improvement", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Rail service quality", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Industrial demand softness", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Wage and equipment inflation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Fuel and insurance costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Snapshot quote/fundamentals were authoritative. Valuation blends simple DCF with cycle-normalized 13.0x EV/EBITDA on a modest freight recovery; quality and FCF support value, but 31.5x trailing P/E limits upside, so HOLD. No sell-side targets used. not investment advice", "current_price": 224.63, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Intermodal franchise and scale support durable share gains versus truckload peers.", "EPS grew despite flat revenue, showing cost discipline and pricing resilience.", "Free cash flow is strong, but balance sheet liquidity remains modest.", "Current valuation already discounts a cyclical volume and margin recovery.", "Near-term upside exists, yet risk/reward looks roughly balanced at current levels." ], "target_price_6m": 232, "target_price_12m": 237 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0091ce3b31c7f3180069d75a5ba34c8195aba31f94672dc583", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 41307, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:12.484Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2449, "outputTokens": 2376, "costUsd": 0.03755 } }, { "id": "cmnr14c2x04k8p658n47ugsx4", "runId": "cmnr14c2u04k2p658tg95avcw", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Fundamental DCF with Scenarios\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"JBHT\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 224.63,\n \"target_price_6m\": 228,\n \"target_price_12m\": 235,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Leading provider of integrated logistics solutions\",\n \"Soft freight market pressures near-term revenue\",\n \"Elevated multiples reflect limited near-term upside\",\n \"Robust FCF funds dividends and debt reduction\",\n \"Cyclical exposure to broader economic trends\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Intermodal demand growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Economic slowdown\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operational efficiency gains\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Fuel and labor costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"E-commerce expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Competitor capacity additions\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Technology investments\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Economic recession impacting freight volumes\",\n \"Rising operating costs\",\n \"Supply chain disruptions\",\n \"Regulatory and environmental compliance costs\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.04,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.075,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 14\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 185,\n \"prob\": 0.35,\n \"notes\": \"Persistent weak freight demand and margin erosion.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 235,\n \"prob\": 0.45,\n \"notes\": \"Moderate economic recovery with stable margins.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 275,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Strong volume growth and efficiency gains.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"3-stage DCF using revenue CAGR, EBIT margin, WACC and terminal multiple assumptions. Mixed freight outlook and high valuation vs history support HOLD (4.6% implied return). Consensus targets noted but not used. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "Fundamental DCF with Scenarios", "risks": [ "Economic recession impacting freight volumes", "Rising operating costs", "Supply chain disruptions", "Regulatory and environmental compliance costs" ], "ticker": "JBHT", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.45, "notes": "Moderate economic recovery with stable margins.", "target_price": 235 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.35, "notes": "Persistent weak freight demand and margin erosion.", "target_price": 185 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong volume growth and efficiency gains.", "target_price": 275 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 14, "ebit_margin_target": 0.075 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Intermodal demand growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Economic slowdown", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operational efficiency gains", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fuel and labor costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "E-commerce expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitor capacity additions", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Technology investments", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "3-stage DCF using revenue CAGR, EBIT margin, WACC and terminal multiple assumptions. Mixed freight outlook and high valuation vs history support HOLD (4.6% implied return). Consensus targets noted but not used. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 224.63, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Leading provider of integrated logistics solutions", "Soft freight market pressures near-term revenue", "Elevated multiples reflect limited near-term upside", "Robust FCF funds dividends and debt reduction", "Cyclical exposure to broader economic trends" ], "target_price_6m": 228, "target_price_12m": 235 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "caec15c0-40e7-9fd5-9044-ab79c06d4fbb", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 19943, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:12.484Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2789, "outputTokens": 3212, "costUsd": 0.056547 } } ] } }