{ "run": { "id": "cmnr14avo04iqp658vgqajlpy", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr14av604imp658pg3fdzfz", "ticker": "IVZ", "snapshotId": "cmnr14ave04iop658a8f9sb4i", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:10.929Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr14ave04iop658a8f9sb4i", "assetId": "cmnr14av604imp658pg3fdzfz", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "open": null, "price": 24.21, "dayLow": 23.8, "volume": 4865844, "dayHigh": 24.305, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 22.77, "week52Low": 11.6, "week52High": 29.61 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": -16.41875, "beta": 1.47293521722999, "epsTTM": -1.6, "fcfTTM": 1469500000, "growth": { "epsYoy": -2.355932203389831, "revenueYoy": 0.05111257623207516 }, "sector": "Investment Advice", "margins": { "net": -0.02741057847610983, "gross": null, "operating": -0.1090934750905584 }, "website": "http://invesco.com", "industry": "Investment management", "pegRatio": 0.0696910971223022, "ebitdaTTM": 302300000, "forwardPe": 9.87593984962406, "marketCap": 5700000000, "totalCash": 1037500000, "totalDebt": 1825100000, "debtEquity": 0.149219197122067, "quickRatio": null, "revenueTTM": 6377100000, "companyName": "Invesco Ltd.", "priceToBook": 0.914255549831217, "currentRatio": null, "dividendYield": 0.031733076799765, "returnOnAssets": -0.006451612903225806, "returnOnEquity": -0.0142915542474041, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Invesco Ltd. is an American (formerly British) independent investment management company headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, with branch offices in 20 countries. Its common stock is a constituent of the S&P 500 and trades on the New York Stock Exchange. Invesco operates under the Invesco, Invesco Perpetual, and Powershares brand names.", "enterpriseValue": 12677402000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 8508, "sharesOutstanding": 443673777, "enterpriseToEbitda": 41.93649354945418, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 1.987957221934735, "operatingCashflowTTM": 1525300000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:10.922Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr14avq04isp658z1woorfp", "runId": "cmnr14avo04iqp658vgqajlpy", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"IVZ\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":24.21,\"target_price_6m\":26.0,\"target_price_12m\":27.5,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.58,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Trades below book value (P/B 0.91) signaling potential undervaluation\",\"Strong FCF of $1.47B vs $5.7B market cap implies ~26% FCF yield\",\"Forward PE ~9.9x suggests market expects meaningful earnings normalization\",\"Negative TTM EPS likely driven by one-time charges, not structural decline\",\"Dividend yield ~3.2% provides downside support while awaiting recovery\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"AUM recovery driven by equity market appreciation and net inflows\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Earnings normalization from negative TTM EPS toward forward consensus\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"ETF platform (PowerShares/QQQ) driving fee-based revenue growth\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Cost discipline and operating leverage on revenue recovery\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend sustainability supported by strong operating cash flow\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"High debt load ($1.83B) limits financial flexibility\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Negative operating margins (-10.9%) reflect current earnings weakness\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Beta of 1.47 amplifies downside in market corrections\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Industry fee compression in active management\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Prolonged equity market downturn would reduce AUM and fee revenue sharply\",\"Continued net outflows from active strategies could offset passive growth\",\"Impairment charges or goodwill writedowns may recur given acquisition history\",\"Rising rates increase debt servicing costs on $1.83B total debt\",\"Competitive pressure from low-cost passive providers erodes margins\",\"Regulatory changes in investment management industry\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.04,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.20,\"wacc\":0.11,\"terminal_multiple\":10.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":18.5,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Market downturn, persistent outflows, margins fail to recover, dividend at risk.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":27.5,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Earnings normalize to ~$2.50 EPS, 11x forward PE, stable AUM trends.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":33.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Strong market rally, net inflows resume, operating leverage drives 22%+ margins.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Valuation anchored on forward earnings normalization (forward PE ~9.9x implies ~$2.45 EPS). 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Recommendation reflects 13.6% upside. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "Equity Research AI", "risks": [ "Fee compression in passive products.", "Significant market downturn reducing AUM.", "Regulatory changes affecting fee structures.", "Integration risks from potential M&A." ], "ticker": "IVZ", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady AUM growth and margin recovery.", "target_price": 27.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Market correction and accelerated fee compression.", "target_price": 18.5 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong equity rally and significant ETF inflows.", "target_price": 33 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.105, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 11, "ebit_margin_target": 0.32 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Equity market performance", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Passive vs Active flow mix", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "ETF market share gains", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating expense management", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Institutional mandate wins", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on forward P/E and P/B historical averages. 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flows\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Fee rate compression\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Cost efficiency gains\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"ETF franchise growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory cost rises\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate trends\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Persistent active fund outflows\",\n \"Global equity market decline\",\n \"Intensified passive fund competition\",\n \"Margin erosion from fee pressure\",\n \"Potential regulatory penalties\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.045,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.22,\n \"wacc\": 0.095,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 11\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 18.5,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Continued outflows and weak markets pressure valuation.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 28.5,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Modest AUM growth and margin improvement realized.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 36,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Strong inflows, market rally, and multiple expansion.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation bridges from current 0.9x P/B and ~10x forward P/E to DCF using assumptions. 12M target implies 18% upside consistent with BUY on mixed flows. not investment advice\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "DCF and Peer Multiples", "risks": [ "Persistent active fund outflows", "Global equity market decline", "Intensified passive fund competition", "Margin erosion from fee pressure", "Potential regulatory penalties" ], "ticker": "IVZ", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Modest AUM growth and margin improvement realized.", "target_price": 28.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, 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