{ "run": { "id": "cmnr149rc04h4p658bfsewu8w", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr149q204grp658ufhsqrdz", "ticker": "INCY", "snapshotId": "cmnr149qq04h0p6581rk9nnl6", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:09.478Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr149qq04h0p6581rk9nnl6", "assetId": "cmnr149q204grp658ufhsqrdz", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "open": null, "price": 95.89, "dayLow": 93.5, "volume": 1096482, "dayHigh": 95.98, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 93.69, "week52Low": 53.56, "week52High": 112.29 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 14.9878603945372, "beta": 0.556251827896853, "epsTTM": 6.59, "fcfTTM": 1352738000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 40.1875, "revenueYoy": 0.2122091371415327 }, "sector": "Services-Commercial Physical & Biological Research", "margins": { "net": 0.2502605401574172, "gross": null, "operating": 0.2946484526501573 }, "website": "http://incyte.com", "industry": "pharmaceuticals", "pegRatio": 0.00372948314638561, "ebitdaTTM": 1594542000, "forwardPe": 14.8303303303303, "marketCap": 11200000000, "totalCash": 899509000, "totalDebt": 34500000, "debtEquity": 0, "quickRatio": 3.825144647252501, "revenueTTM": 5141242000, "companyName": "INCYTE CORP", "priceToBook": 3.73108488899227, "currentRatio": 4.008710801393728, "dividendYield": null, "returnOnAssets": 0.5587857457410854, "returnOnEquity": 0.248989932806681, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Incyte Corporation is an American multinational pharmaceutical company with headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware. The company currently operates manufacturing and R&D locations in North America, Europe, and Asia.", "enterpriseValue": 16182482080, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 2617, "sharesOutstanding": 199014486, "enterpriseToEbitda": 10.14867095379112, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 3.147582253471048, "operatingCashflowTTM": 1413498000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:09.459Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr149rf04h8p658xt36mef1", "runId": "cmnr149rc04h4p658bfsewu8w", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"INCY\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":95.89,\"target_price_6m\":104,\"target_price_12m\":112,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.65,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Attractive 15x P/E with 21% revenue growth and strong free cash flow\",\"Near-debt-free balance sheet with $900M cash provides strategic flexibility\",\"FCF yield of ~12% well above pharma peers, supporting buybacks or M&A\",\"Pipeline diversification beyond Jakafi reduces single-product concentration risk\",\"Operating margin ~29.5% demonstrates scalable commercial infrastructure\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Jakafi franchise revenue durability and lifecycle management\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Pipeline readouts in oncology and inflammation catalysts\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Revenue growth deceleration from 21% as comps normalize\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Potential generic competition to core ruxolitinib franchise\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Strong FCF generation enabling capital deployment\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Low beta (0.56) provides relative defensive positioning\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Forward P/E of ~14.8x suggests flat near-term EPS expectations\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Opzelura and newer products ramping commercially\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Jakafi patent expiration and generic entry could erode core revenue stream\",\"Clinical trial failures in mid/late-stage pipeline assets\",\"Regulatory setbacks for pending or marketed products\",\"Pricing pressure from IRA Medicare drug negotiation provisions\",\"Key management or talent departures in competitive biopharma labor market\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.09,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.30,\"wacc\":0.09,\"terminal_multiple\":16},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":78,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Jakafi erosion accelerates, pipeline misses, EPS ~$6.00 at 13x P/E.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":112,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Mid-single-digit EPS growth to ~$7.00, modest P/E expansion to 16x.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":138,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Pipeline catalysts drive re-rating; EPS ~$7.50 at 18x P/E.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Earnings-power valuation anchored on TTM EPS of $6.59, projecting ~6-8% EPS growth to ~$7.00 in 12M, applying 16x fair-value P/E (in line with mid-growth pharma comps). FCF yield of ~12% and near-zero leverage support valuation floor. Forward P/E (14.8x) suggests consensus sees limited near-term acceleration, tempering confidence. 12M expected return ~16.8% supports BUY. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Jakafi patent expiration and generic entry could erode core revenue stream", "Clinical trial failures in mid/late-stage pipeline assets", "Regulatory setbacks for pending or marketed products", "Pricing pressure from IRA Medicare drug negotiation provisions", "Key management or talent departures in competitive biopharma labor market" ], "ticker": "INCY", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Mid-single-digit EPS growth to ~$7.00, modest P/E expansion to 16x.", "target_price": 112 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Jakafi erosion accelerates, pipeline misses, EPS ~$6.00 at 13x P/E.", "target_price": 78 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Pipeline catalysts drive re-rating; EPS ~$7.50 at 18x P/E.", "target_price": 138 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.09, "terminal_multiple": 16, "ebit_margin_target": 0.3 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Jakafi franchise revenue durability and lifecycle management", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Pipeline readouts in oncology and inflammation catalysts", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Revenue growth deceleration from 21% as comps normalize", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Potential generic competition to core ruxolitinib franchise", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Strong FCF generation enabling capital deployment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Low beta (0.56) provides relative defensive positioning", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Forward P/E of ~14.8x suggests flat near-term EPS expectations", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Opzelura and newer products ramping commercially", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Earnings-power valuation anchored on TTM EPS of $6.59, projecting ~6-8% EPS growth to ~$7.00 in 12M, applying 16x fair-value P/E (in line with mid-growth pharma comps). FCF yield of ~12% and near-zero leverage support valuation floor. Forward P/E (14.8x) suggests consensus sees limited near-term acceleration, tempering confidence. 12M expected return ~16.8% supports BUY. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 95.89, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Attractive 15x P/E with 21% revenue growth and strong free cash flow", "Near-debt-free balance sheet with $900M cash provides strategic flexibility", "FCF yield of ~12% well above pharma peers, supporting buybacks or M&A", "Pipeline diversification beyond Jakafi reduces single-product concentration risk", "Operating margin ~29.5% demonstrates scalable commercial infrastructure" ], "target_price_6m": 104, "target_price_12m": 112 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 38411, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:09.478Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3531, "outputTokens": 1764, "costUsd": 0.061755 } }, { "id": "cmnr149rf04hbp658nozyukub", "runId": "cmnr149rc04h4p658bfsewu8w", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"INCY\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 95.89,\n \"target_price_6m\": 100.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 110.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong revenue growth from Jakafi and other products.\",\n \"High profitability with robust operating margins.\",\n \"Promising pipeline in oncology and autoimmune diseases.\",\n \"Low debt and solid balance sheet strength.\",\n \"Attractive valuation relative to earnings growth.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Jakafi sales growth\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Pipeline advancements and new approvals\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Operating margin expansion\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory risks and delays\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competitive pressure in key markets\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Cost efficiency initiatives\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Clinical trial failures or setbacks.\",\n \"Patent expirations on key drugs.\",\n \"Regulatory changes impacting approvals.\",\n \"Currency exchange rate volatility.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.15,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.3,\n \"wacc\": 0.08,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 10.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 90.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Pipeline failures or regulatory issues.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 110.0, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Steady execution and growth.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 130.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Successful new drug launches.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF valuation with growth and margin assumptions; 14.7% expected upside justifies BUY. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Clinical trial failures or setbacks.", "Patent expirations on key drugs.", "Regulatory changes impacting approvals.", "Currency exchange rate volatility." ], "ticker": "INCY", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady execution and growth.", "target_price": 110 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Pipeline failures or regulatory issues.", "target_price": 90 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Successful new drug launches.", "target_price": 130 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.08, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.15, "terminal_multiple": 10, "ebit_margin_target": 0.3 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Jakafi sales growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Pipeline advancements and new approvals", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating margin expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory risks and delays", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competitive pressure in key markets", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Cost efficiency initiatives", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "DCF valuation with growth and margin assumptions; 14.7% expected upside justifies BUY. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 95.89, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong revenue growth from Jakafi and other products.", "High profitability with robust operating margins.", "Promising pipeline in oncology and autoimmune diseases.", "Low debt and solid balance sheet strength.", "Attractive valuation relative to earnings growth." ], "target_price_6m": 100, "target_price_12m": 110 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 348, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:09.478Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2049, "outputTokens": 3248, "costUsd": 0.001938 } }, { "id": "cmnr149rf04h9p6583zyeagmh", "runId": "cmnr149rc04h4p658bfsewu8w", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"Equity Research AI - Biotech/Pharma\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"INCY\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":95.89,\"target_price_6m\":104.0,\"target_price_12m\":112.0,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.72,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Jakafi maintains dominant market share in myelofibrosis despite new competitive entries.\",\"Opzelura launch in vitiligo provides a significant long-term revenue tailwind.\",\"Strong balance sheet with $900M cash supports strategic M&A and R&D.\",\"Current valuation at ~15x PE offers attractive entry relative to growth.\",\"Pipeline diversification into inflammation reduces reliance on core oncology assets.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Opzelura market penetration\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Jakafi patent lifecycle management\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Povorcitinib Phase 3 data\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"R&D pipeline conversion\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Competitive landscape in JAK inhibitors\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating margin expansion\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Concentration risk with Jakafi revenue dependency.\",\"Regulatory hurdles for new pipeline candidates.\",\"Pricing pressure from PBMs and healthcare reforms.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.12,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.32,\"wacc\":0.085,\"terminal_multiple\":12.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":78.0,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Jakafi sales decline faster than expected and pipeline failures.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":112.0,\"prob\":0.6,\"notes\":\"Steady Opzelura growth and successful Jakafi lifecycle management.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":135.0,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Major pipeline breakthrough or acquisition at a significant premium.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Valuation uses a blended P/E and DCF approach. Target reflects 16x forward earnings. Note: Snapshot marketCap/price discrepancy observed; used price-based valuation. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "Equity Research AI - Biotech/Pharma", "risks": [ "Concentration risk with Jakafi revenue dependency.", "Regulatory hurdles for new pipeline candidates.", "Pricing pressure from PBMs and healthcare reforms." ], "ticker": "INCY", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady Opzelura growth and successful Jakafi lifecycle management.", "target_price": 112 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Jakafi sales decline faster than expected and pipeline failures.", "target_price": 78 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Major pipeline breakthrough or acquisition at a significant premium.", "target_price": 135 } }, "confidence": 0.72, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.12, "terminal_multiple": 12, "ebit_margin_target": 0.32 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Opzelura market penetration", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Jakafi patent lifecycle management", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Povorcitinib Phase 3 data", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "R&D pipeline conversion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive landscape in JAK inhibitors", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operating margin expansion", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation uses a blended P/E and DCF approach. Target reflects 16x forward earnings. Note: Snapshot marketCap/price discrepancy observed; used price-based valuation. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 95.89, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Jakafi maintains dominant market share in myelofibrosis despite new competitive entries.", "Opzelura launch in vitiligo provides a significant long-term revenue tailwind.", "Strong balance sheet with $900M cash supports strategic M&A and R&D.", "Current valuation at ~15x PE offers attractive entry relative to growth.", "Pipeline diversification into inflammation reduces reliance on core oncology assets." ], "target_price_6m": 104, "target_price_12m": 112 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 23882, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:09.478Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2364, "outputTokens": 514, "costUsd": 0.010896 } }, { "id": "cmnr149rf04h7p658bbbejuix", "runId": "cmnr149rc04h4p658bfsewu8w", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation v2\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"INCY\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":95.89,\"target_price_6m\":98.7,\"target_price_12m\":101,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Profitable franchise with strong FCF and a clean balance sheet.\",\"Current valuation looks reasonable, not clearly cheap, versus growth outlook.\",\"Revenue growth is solid, but product concentration remains material.\",\"Pipeline execution could sustain growth as legacy assets mature.\",\"Mixed upside and risk profile supports a neutral stance.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Jakafi franchise resilience\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Pipeline trial readouts\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"New product launch uptake\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating margin durability\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Patent and exclusivity overhang\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Competitive pressure in hematology\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Capital allocation discipline\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory and reimbursement changes\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Jakafi concentration and pricing pressure\",\"Clinical failures or delayed approvals\",\"Regulatory setbacks or label changes\",\"Faster-than-expected exclusivity erosion\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.08,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.29,\"wacc\":0.095,\"terminal_multiple\":14},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":78,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Core franchise slows and pipeline disappoints, pressuring valuation.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":101,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Steady cash flows and modest pipeline progress sustain current multiples.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":118,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Positive readouts and stronger launches drive growth and rerating.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended normalized P/E and EV/EBIT on snapshot TTM fundamentals, cross-checked with FCF yield and net cash. HOLD fits ~5% 12M upside with concentration and pipeline uncertainty. No sell-side targets used; snapshot quote fields remained authoritative. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation v2", "risks": [ "Jakafi concentration and pricing pressure", "Clinical failures or delayed approvals", "Regulatory setbacks or label changes", "Faster-than-expected exclusivity erosion" ], "ticker": "INCY", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady cash flows and modest pipeline progress sustain current multiples.", "target_price": 101 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Core franchise slows and pipeline disappoints, pressuring valuation.", "target_price": 78 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Positive readouts and stronger launches drive growth and rerating.", "target_price": 118 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 14, "ebit_margin_target": 0.29 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Jakafi franchise resilience", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Pipeline trial readouts", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "New product launch uptake", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating margin durability", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Patent and exclusivity overhang", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competitive pressure in hematology", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Capital allocation discipline", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory and reimbursement changes", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended normalized P/E and EV/EBIT on snapshot TTM fundamentals, cross-checked with FCF yield and net cash. HOLD fits ~5% 12M upside with concentration and pipeline uncertainty. 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