{ "run": { "id": "cmnr149qk04gtp658u5gug2xp", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr149od04gop658eel4n06h", "ticker": "IR", "snapshotId": "cmnr149po04gqp65800lrhkuy", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:09.450Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr149po04gqp65800lrhkuy", "assetId": "cmnr149od04gop658eel4n06h", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "open": null, "price": 84.67, "dayLow": 81.93, "volume": 2580347, "dayHigh": 85.22, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 79.55, "week52Low": 65.61, "week52High": 100.96 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 54.2602739726027, "beta": 1.16744841888593, "epsTTM": 1.46, "fcfTTM": 761700000, "growth": { "epsYoy": -0.2980769230769231, "revenueYoy": 0.05748445058742226 }, "sector": "General Industrial Machinery & Equipment", "margins": { "net": 0.07599105987530878, "gross": 0.4360663451358664, "operating": 0.1496033146427218 }, "website": "http://irco.com", "industry": null, "pegRatio": -1.8203446752099, "ebitdaTTM": 1610400000, "forwardPe": 23.0962099125364, "marketCap": 33000000000, "totalCash": 1248800000, "totalDebt": 4784700000, "debtEquity": 0.474211580011497, "quickRatio": 1.339011760150995, "revenueTTM": 7650900000, "companyName": "Ingersoll Rand Inc.", "priceToBook": 3.10591707701398, "currentRatio": 2.055848618303247, "dividendYield": 0.00100832399999467, "returnOnAssets": 0.03177535360601622, "returnOnEquity": 0.0576225495054411, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Ingersoll Rand Inc. is an American multinational company that provides flow creation and industrial products. The company was formed in February 2020 through the spinoff of the industrial segment of Ingersoll-Rand plc (now known as Trane Technologies) and its merger with Gardner Denver. Its products are sold under more than 40 brands across all major global markets.", "enterpriseValue": 35073382000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 21000, "sharesOutstanding": 391617994, "enterpriseToEbitda": 21.77929831097864, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 4.584216497405534, "operatingCashflowTTM": 1355700000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:09.420Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr149qm04gvp6589tvun126", "runId": "cmnr149qk04gtp658u5gug2xp", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"IR\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":84.67,\"target_price_6m\":88.0,\"target_price_12m\":91.0,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.58,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Forward PE of ~23x implies meaningful EPS recovery from depressed TTM levels\",\"Strong FCF generation (~$762M TTM) supports M&A-driven compounding strategy\",\"Gross margins at 43.6% reflect pricing power across 40+ industrial brands\",\"High net debt (~$3.5B) limits flexibility but current ratio is healthy at 2.05\",\"Valuation premium (EV/EBITDA ~22x) requires consistent execution on margin expansion\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Earnings recovery from depressed TTM EPS toward forward consensus\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Bolt-on M&A pipeline leveraging platform integration capabilities\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating margin expansion toward 17-18% from current 15%\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Industrial cycle sensitivity amid uncertain macro backdrop\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Tariff and trade policy risk impacting global industrial demand\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Organic revenue growth of ~5-6% from aftermarket and services\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest expense burden from $4.8B total debt\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Price/cost dynamics supporting gross margin stability\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Macro slowdown reduces industrial capex spending and order volumes\",\"Acquisition integration risk or overpayment dilutes ROIC\",\"Leverage constraints limit capital deployment in downturn\",\"Tariff escalation disrupts global supply chains and demand\",\"EPS recovery stalls if restructuring charges or impairments persist\",\"Rising rates increase refinancing cost on substantial debt load\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.07,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.175,\"wacc\":0.095,\"terminal_multiple\":20.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":70.0,\"prob\":0.20,\"notes\":\"Macro recession compresses multiples and delays earnings recovery.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":91.0,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"EPS recovers to ~$3.70+, multiple sustains at ~24x forward.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":110.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Accelerating M&A synergies and margin expansion drive re-rating.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended forward PE and EV/EBITDA approach anchored on snapshot fundamentals. Forward EPS implied at ~$3.67 from forward PE of 23.1. Base case applies ~24.5x on normalized EPS of ~$3.70 for 12M target of ~$91. TTM EPS of $1.46 appears depressed vs forward (possibly one-time charges). Probability-weighted scenario value (~$91) aligns with base target. Moderate confidence reflects tension between depressed TTM earnings and expected recovery. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Macro slowdown reduces industrial capex spending and order volumes", "Acquisition integration risk or overpayment dilutes ROIC", "Leverage constraints limit capital deployment in downturn", "Tariff escalation disrupts global supply chains and demand", "EPS recovery stalls if restructuring charges or impairments persist", "Rising rates increase refinancing cost on substantial debt load" ], "ticker": "IR", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "EPS recovers to ~$3.70+, multiple sustains at ~24x forward.", "target_price": 91 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Macro recession compresses multiples and delays earnings recovery.", "target_price": 70 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Accelerating M&A synergies and margin expansion drive re-rating.", "target_price": 110 } }, "confidence": 0.58, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.07, "terminal_multiple": 20, "ebit_margin_target": 0.175 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Earnings recovery from depressed TTM EPS toward forward consensus", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Bolt-on M&A pipeline leveraging platform integration capabilities", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating margin expansion toward 17-18% from current 15%", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Industrial cycle sensitivity amid uncertain macro backdrop", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Tariff and trade policy risk impacting global industrial demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Organic revenue growth of ~5-6% from aftermarket and services", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest expense burden from $4.8B total debt", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Price/cost dynamics supporting gross margin stability", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Blended forward PE and EV/EBITDA approach anchored on snapshot fundamentals. Forward EPS implied at ~$3.67 from forward PE of 23.1. Base case applies ~24.5x on normalized EPS of ~$3.70 for 12M target of ~$91. TTM EPS of $1.46 appears depressed vs forward (possibly one-time charges). Probability-weighted scenario value (~$91) aligns with base target. Moderate confidence reflects tension between depressed TTM earnings and expected recovery. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 84.67, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Forward PE of ~23x implies meaningful EPS recovery from depressed TTM levels", "Strong FCF generation (~$762M TTM) supports M&A-driven compounding strategy", "Gross margins at 43.6% reflect pricing power across 40+ industrial brands", "High net debt (~$3.5B) limits flexibility but current ratio is healthy at 2.05", "Valuation premium (EV/EBITDA ~22x) requires consistent execution on margin expansion" ], "target_price_6m": 88, "target_price_12m": 91 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 46622, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:09.450Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3598, "outputTokens": 1900, "costUsd": 0.06549 } }, { "id": "cmnr149qm04gyp6588ms0ko7p", "runId": "cmnr149qk04gtp658u5gug2xp", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Equity Research AI Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"IR\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 84.67,\n \"target_price_6m\": 86.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 89.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Steady revenue growth around 5% annually.\",\n \"Margin expansion potential from operational efficiencies.\",\n \"Strong free cash flow supports debt management.\",\n \"Cyclical industry exposure limits near-term upside.\",\n \"Valuation near fair value based on forward earnings.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Industrial demand recovery\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Cost inflation pressures\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Merger synergies from Gardner Denver\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"EPS recovery post-spinoff\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"High current P/E ratio\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Strong operating cash flow\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Economic cycle sensitivity\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Low dividend yield\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Economic downturn reducing industrial demand\",\n \"Increased competition pressuring margins\",\n \"Integration risks from past mergers\",\n \"Rising interest rates affecting debt costs\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.155,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 20\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 80.0, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Economic slowdown and margin compression.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 89.0, \"prob\": 0.5, \"notes\": \"Moderate growth and margin improvement.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 95.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong demand and cost efficiencies.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Used DCF with assumed 5% revenue CAGR and 15.5% EBIT margin; target implies 5% upside, hence HOLD. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "Equity Research AI Model", "risks": [ "Economic downturn reducing industrial demand", "Increased competition pressuring margins", "Integration risks from past mergers", "Rising interest rates affecting debt costs" ], "ticker": "IR", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate growth and margin improvement.", "target_price": 89 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Economic slowdown and margin compression.", "target_price": 80 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong demand and cost efficiencies.", "target_price": 95 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 20, "ebit_margin_target": 0.155 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Industrial demand recovery", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cost inflation pressures", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Merger synergies from Gardner Denver", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "EPS recovery post-spinoff", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "High current P/E ratio", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Strong operating cash flow", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Economic cycle sensitivity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Low dividend yield", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Used DCF with assumed 5% revenue CAGR and 15.5% EBIT margin; target implies 5% upside, hence HOLD. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 84.67, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Steady revenue growth around 5% annually.", "Margin expansion potential from operational efficiencies.", "Strong free cash flow supports debt management.", "Cyclical industry exposure limits near-term upside.", "Valuation near fair value based on forward earnings." ], "target_price_6m": 86, "target_price_12m": 89 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 348, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:09.450Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2109, "outputTokens": 3463, "costUsd": 0.002045 } }, { "id": "cmnr149qm04gwp658khxz9l34", "runId": "cmnr149qk04gtp658u5gug2xp", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearch_IR_Hold\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"IR\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 84.67,\n \"target_price_6m\": 86.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 88.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Premium valuation reflects strong execution but limits near-term upside potential.\",\n \"Forward P/E of 23x prices in significant margin expansion and earnings recovery.\",\n \"Solid M&A pipeline provides inorganic growth opportunities in fragmented industrial markets.\",\n \"Free cash flow generation remains robust, supporting deleveraging and bolt-on acquisitions.\",\n \"Macroeconomic headwinds in short-cycle industrial markets pose risks to organic volume growth.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Bolt-on M&A execution\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Global industrial production indices\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Margin expansion initiatives\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Raw material cost inflation\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Synergies from recent acquisitions\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Currency fluctuations\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Slower-than-expected recovery in global industrial production.\",\n \"Integration risks and failure to realize synergies from bolt-on acquisitions.\",\n \"Multiple contraction if forward earnings estimates are revised downward.\",\n \"Increased competition in flow creation and compressor markets.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.17,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 18.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 65.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Industrial recession materializes, compressing margins and driving multiple contraction to 16x forward earnings.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 88.00,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Steady mid-single-digit organic growth and successful M&A integration support a 22x forward P/E.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 105.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated margin expansion and accretive M&A drive earnings beats, expanding multiple to 25x.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a blended 22x forward P/E and DCF (8.5% WACC, 18x terminal EV/EBITDA). The current premium valuation (21.8x EV/EBITDA) captures much of the expected margin recovery, resulting in limited upside (+3.9%) to our $88 12M target. Initiating at HOLD. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch_IR_Hold", "risks": [ "Slower-than-expected recovery in global industrial production.", "Integration risks and failure to realize synergies from bolt-on acquisitions.", "Multiple contraction if forward earnings estimates are revised downward.", "Increased competition in flow creation and compressor markets." ], "ticker": "IR", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady mid-single-digit organic growth and successful M&A integration support a 22x forward P/E.", "target_price": 88 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Industrial recession materializes, compressing margins and driving multiple contraction to 16x forward earnings.", "target_price": 65 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated margin expansion and accretive M&A drive earnings beats, expanding multiple to 25x.", "target_price": 105 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 18, "ebit_margin_target": 0.17 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Bolt-on M&A execution", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Global industrial production indices", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Margin expansion initiatives", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Raw material cost inflation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Synergies from recent acquisitions", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Currency fluctuations", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a blended 22x forward P/E and DCF (8.5% WACC, 18x terminal EV/EBITDA). The current premium valuation (21.8x EV/EBITDA) captures much of the expected margin recovery, resulting in limited upside (+3.9%) to our $88 12M target. Initiating at HOLD. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 84.67, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Premium valuation reflects strong execution but limits near-term upside potential.", "Forward P/E of 23x prices in significant margin expansion and earnings recovery.", "Solid M&A pipeline provides inorganic growth opportunities in fragmented industrial markets.", "Free cash flow generation remains robust, supporting deleveraging and bolt-on acquisitions.", "Macroeconomic headwinds in short-cycle industrial markets pose risks to organic volume growth." ], "target_price_6m": 86, "target_price_12m": 88 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 24823, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:09.450Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2465, "outputTokens": 877, "costUsd": 0.015454 } }, { "id": "cmnr149qm04gup658vrje1hd8", "runId": "cmnr149qk04gtp658u5gug2xp", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"OpenAI o3\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"IR\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":84.67,\"target_price_6m\":87.2,\"target_price_12m\":88.5,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.63,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Recurring aftermarket and installed base support resilient organic growth.\",\"Disciplined bolt-on M&A and IES productivity can lift margins.\",\"Strong cash generation supports acquisitions, deleveraging, and steady capital returns.\",\"EPS volatility and modest reported growth temper near-term earnings visibility.\",\"Premium valuation limits upside unless growth re-accelerates or synergies exceed expectations.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Aftermarket revenue mix\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Bolt-on M&A cadence\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"IES margin expansion\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Industrial capex demand\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Valuation multiple compression\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Integration execution\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Europe/China macro softness\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Free-cash-flow conversion\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Industrial demand weakens across compressor and vacuum markets.\",\"Acquisition integration misses or overpayment hurts returns.\",\"Valuation compresses as rates stay higher for longer.\",\"Input costs, tariffs, or FX pressure margins.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.075,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.185,\"wacc\":0.085,\"terminal_multiple\":20.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":72,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Demand softens and the premium multiple narrows.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":89,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Growth stays mid-single-digit with modest margin improvement.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":104,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"M&A and productivity drive faster earnings compounding.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Used snapshot quote/fundamentals as authoritative. Valuation is a scenario-weighted 12M EV/EBITDA and earnings-power cross-check using explicit assumptions; no sell-side targets used. Rich current multiples versus moderate growth keep expected return in HOLD range. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "OpenAI o3", "risks": [ "Industrial demand weakens across compressor and vacuum markets.", "Acquisition integration misses or overpayment hurts returns.", "Valuation compresses as rates stay higher for longer.", "Input costs, tariffs, or FX pressure margins." ], "ticker": "IR", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Growth stays mid-single-digit with modest margin improvement.", "target_price": 89 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Demand softens and the premium multiple narrows.", "target_price": 72 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "M&A and productivity drive faster earnings compounding.", "target_price": 104 } }, "confidence": 0.63, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.075, "terminal_multiple": 20.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.185 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Aftermarket revenue mix", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Bolt-on M&A cadence", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "IES margin expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Industrial capex demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Valuation multiple compression", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Integration execution", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Europe/China macro softness", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Free-cash-flow conversion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Used snapshot quote/fundamentals as authoritative. Valuation is a scenario-weighted 12M EV/EBITDA and earnings-power cross-check using explicit assumptions; no sell-side targets used. Rich current multiples versus moderate growth keep expected return in HOLD range. not investment advice", "current_price": 84.67, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Recurring aftermarket and installed base support resilient organic growth.", "Disciplined bolt-on M&A and IES productivity can lift margins.", "Strong cash generation supports acquisitions, deleveraging, and steady capital returns.", "EPS volatility and modest reported growth temper near-term earnings visibility.", "Premium valuation limits upside unless growth re-accelerates or synergies exceed expectations." ], "target_price_6m": 87.2, "target_price_12m": 88.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_003a0a0214df275b0069d75a35cb188193bdf10eea9f3c749c", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 50970, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:09.450Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2381, "outputTokens": 3104, "costUsd": 0.047623 } }, { "id": "cmnr149qm04gxp6581cqbqm1e", "runId": "cmnr149qk04gtp658u5gug2xp", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Ingersoll Rand DCF Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"IR\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 84.67,\n \"target_price_6m\": 91.5,\n \"target_price_12m\": 99.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.61,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Diversified portfolio in pumps and compressors supports growth\",\n \"Merger synergies continue to expand operating margins\",\n \"Exposure to data centers and EV adds secular tailwinds\",\n \"High EV/EBITDA of 22x reflects quality but limits upside\",\n \"Solid FCF funds debt paydown amid cyclical risks\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Industrial manufacturing demand\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Cost synergies from Gardner merger\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Data center compressor demand\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Global economic slowdown\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Input cost inflation\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Debt servicing costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"New product innovation\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Acquisition execution\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Cyclical exposure to industrial capex\",\n \"Margin pressure from commodity costs\",\n \"Integration risks from past mergers\",\n \"High valuation multiple contraction\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.065,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.175,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 17.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 73,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Prolonged slowdown erodes margins and growth.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 99,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Steady execution on synergies and 6.5% growth.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 122,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated demand from data centers and EVs.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"3-stage DCF using revenue CAGR, EBIT margin, WACC and terminal EV/EBITDA multiple. 17% 12M upside supports BUY per rubric. Consensus not used as input. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "Ingersoll Rand DCF Model", "risks": [ "Cyclical exposure to industrial capex", "Margin pressure from commodity costs", "Integration risks from past mergers", "High valuation multiple contraction" ], "ticker": "IR", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady execution on synergies and 6.5% growth.", "target_price": 99 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Prolonged slowdown erodes margins and growth.", "target_price": 73 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated demand from data centers and EVs.", "target_price": 122 } }, "confidence": 0.61, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.065, "terminal_multiple": 17.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.175 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Industrial manufacturing demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cost synergies from Gardner merger", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Data center compressor demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Global economic slowdown", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Input cost inflation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt servicing costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "New product innovation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Acquisition execution", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "3-stage DCF using revenue CAGR, EBIT margin, WACC and terminal EV/EBITDA multiple. 17% 12M upside supports BUY per rubric. Consensus not used as input. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 84.67, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Diversified portfolio in pumps and compressors supports growth", "Merger synergies continue to expand operating margins", "Exposure to data centers and EV adds secular tailwinds", "High EV/EBITDA of 22x reflects quality but limits upside", "Solid FCF funds debt paydown amid cyclical risks" ], "target_price_6m": 91.5, "target_price_12m": 99 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "65c6eda4-3144-9605-b5b1-280f758cde81", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 15763, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:09.450Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2721, "outputTokens": 3037, "costUsd": 0.053718 } } ] } }