{ "run": { "id": "cmnr148xd04f8p658t8arpgs4", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr148w204f4p6580fdtn7lh", "ticker": "INTU", "snapshotId": "cmnr148x304f6p6583i6slga8", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:08.398Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr148x304f6p6583i6slga8", "assetId": "cmnr148w204f4p6580fdtn7lh", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "open": null, "price": 389.51, "dayLow": 386.21, "volume": 4706839, "dayHigh": 417.2, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 410.24, "week52Low": 349, "week52High": 813.7 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 56.8111432706223, "beta": 1.4010925626534, "epsTTM": 13.82, "fcfTTM": 5618000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.3062381852551985, "revenueYoy": -0.7530136477085657 }, "sector": "Services-Prepackaged Software", "margins": { "net": 0.1490002150075252, "gross": null, "operating": 0.1838314341001935 }, "website": "http://www.intuit.com/in/", "industry": null, "pegRatio": 1.85512930803452, "ebitdaTTM": 6161000000, "forwardPe": 45.5676146256529, "marketCap": 164200000000, "totalCash": 2942000000, "totalDebt": 6909000000, "debtEquity": 0.303044140030441, "quickRatio": 0.465513342379014, "revenueTTM": 4651000000, "companyName": "INTUIT INC.", "priceToBook": 11.1535464231355, "currentRatio": 1.323270013568521, "dividendYield": 0.00545860467147388, "returnOnAssets": 0.02021468992474185, "returnOnEquity": 0.196296296296296, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Intuit Inc. is an American multinational business software company that specializes in financial software. Headquartered in Mountain View, California, the company is led by CEO Sasan Goodarzi. Intuit's products include the tax preparation application TurboTax, the small business accounting software QuickBooks, the credit monitoring and personal finance service Credit Karma, and the email marketing platform Mailchimp. As of 2019, more than 95% of its revenue and earnings originated from its operations within the United States. Intuit is listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange and is a component of the Nasdaq-100, S&P 100, and S&P 500 stock market indices.", "enterpriseValue": 222925400000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 500, "sharesOutstanding": 276550000, "enterpriseToEbitda": 36.18331439701347, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 47.93063857235003, "operatingCashflowTTM": 2207000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:08.391Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr148xf04fap6587rnmxug4", "runId": "cmnr148xd04f8p658t8arpgs4", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"INTU\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":389.51,\"target_price_6m\":415,\"target_price_12m\":445,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.58,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Leading financial software franchise with TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma, Mailchimp\",\"Stock down ~52% from 52-week high, offering improved entry point\",\"Strong FCF generation of $5.6B supports capital returns and reinvestment\",\"AI-powered platform strategy could re-accelerate monetization across segments\",\"Elevated valuation multiples and macro uncertainty cap near-term upside\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"AI integration into TurboTax and QuickBooks driving ARPU growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"SMB spending environment under macro pressure\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Tax season execution and IRS Direct File competitive threat\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Credit Karma monetization recovery tied to lending cycle\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Mailchimp cross-sell into QuickBooks customer base\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Multiple compression risk in risk-off market regime\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Share buyback program supporting EPS growth\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Subscription mix shift improving revenue visibility\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Sustained macro weakness reducing SMB formation and spend\",\"Regulatory or competitive threat to TurboTax dominance (e.g., IRS free file expansion)\",\"Continued multiple compression if growth decelerates further\",\"Revenue data anomaly in snapshot suggests possible segment disruption or restatement\",\"High beta (1.4) amplifies downside in broad market selloffs\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.1,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.28,\"wacc\":0.1,\"terminal_multiple\":28},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":310,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Macro recession compresses multiples further; SMB churn accelerates.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":445,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Moderate revenue recovery, AI monetization offsets macro drag, PE re-rates to ~30x.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":570,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Strong AI-driven ARPU uplift, lending cycle recovery lifts Credit Karma, multiple re-expansion.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended EV/EBITDA and forward PE approach anchored on normalized ~$16B revenue (snapshot revenueTTM of $4.65B appears anomalous vs FCF/EBITDA, likely partial-period; noted but snapshot values preserved per rules). 12M base target ~$445 implies ~14% upside, supporting BUY. Forward PE of ~30x on ~$15 EPS yields ~$450. Probability-weighted scenario value ~$435. Sell-side context not used as numeric input. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Sustained macro weakness reducing SMB formation and spend", "Regulatory or competitive threat to TurboTax dominance (e.g., IRS free file expansion)", "Continued multiple compression if growth decelerates further", "Revenue data anomaly in snapshot suggests possible segment disruption or restatement", "High beta (1.4) amplifies downside in broad market selloffs" ], "ticker": "INTU", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Moderate revenue recovery, AI monetization offsets macro drag, PE re-rates to ~30x.", "target_price": 445 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Macro recession compresses multiples further; SMB churn accelerates.", "target_price": 310 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong AI-driven ARPU uplift, lending cycle recovery lifts Credit Karma, multiple re-expansion.", "target_price": 570 } }, "confidence": 0.58, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.1, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.1, "terminal_multiple": 28, "ebit_margin_target": 0.28 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "AI integration into TurboTax and QuickBooks driving ARPU growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "SMB spending environment under macro pressure", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Tax season execution and IRS Direct File competitive threat", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Credit Karma monetization recovery tied to lending cycle", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Mailchimp cross-sell into QuickBooks customer base", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Multiple compression risk in risk-off market regime", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Share buyback program supporting EPS growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Subscription mix shift improving revenue visibility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Blended EV/EBITDA and forward PE approach anchored on normalized ~$16B revenue (snapshot revenueTTM of $4.65B appears anomalous vs FCF/EBITDA, likely partial-period; noted but snapshot values preserved per rules). 12M base target ~$445 implies ~14% upside, supporting BUY. Forward PE of ~30x on ~$15 EPS yields ~$450. Probability-weighted scenario value ~$435. Sell-side context not used as numeric input. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 389.51, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Leading financial software franchise with TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma, Mailchimp", "Stock down ~52% from 52-week high, offering improved entry point", "Strong FCF generation of $5.6B supports capital returns and reinvestment", "AI-powered platform strategy could re-accelerate monetization across segments", "Elevated valuation multiples and macro uncertainty cap near-term upside" ], "target_price_6m": 415, "target_price_12m": 445 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 48524, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:08.398Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3664, "outputTokens": 1859, "costUsd": 0.064795 } }, { "id": "cmnr148xf04fdp65849x2qjvq", "runId": "cmnr148xd04f8p658t8arpgs4", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"DCF_and_Comparables_Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"INTU\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 389.51,\n \"target_price_6m\": 410,\n \"target_price_12m\": 430,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Intuit holds leading position in tax and accounting software markets.\",\n \"Recent acquisitions may drive future revenue growth after integration.\",\n \"High current valuation leaves little room for error in execution.\",\n \"Expanding subscription models enhance recurring revenue streams.\",\n \"Regulatory pressures on tax software could increase costs and limit pricing.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Revenue growth from new products\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Margin expansion through efficiency\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competition in fintech\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Economic cycle affecting small businesses\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory changes in tax software\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Subscription model adoption\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"International expansion\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"High valuation sensitivity to growth rates\",\n \"Dependency on U.S. tax season revenue\",\n \"Integration risks from acquisitions\",\n \"Cybersecurity threats\",\n \"Changes in tax laws\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.08,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.2,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 30\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 350, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Growth stalls and multiples contract.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 430, \"prob\": 0.5, \"notes\": \"Moderate growth and stable multiples.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 500, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong growth and multiple expansion.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Using forward earnings and sector multiples for valuation. BUY based on 10% upside with medium confidence. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "DCF_and_Comparables_Model", "risks": [ "High valuation sensitivity to growth rates", "Dependency on U.S. tax season revenue", "Integration risks from acquisitions", "Cybersecurity threats", "Changes in tax laws" ], "ticker": "INTU", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate growth and stable multiples.", "target_price": 430 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Growth stalls and multiples contract.", "target_price": 350 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong growth and multiple expansion.", "target_price": 500 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 30, "ebit_margin_target": 0.2 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Revenue growth from new products", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Margin expansion through efficiency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competition in fintech", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Economic cycle affecting small businesses", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory changes in tax software", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Subscription model adoption", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "International expansion", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Using forward earnings and sector multiples for valuation. BUY based on 10% upside with medium confidence. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 389.51, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Intuit holds leading position in tax and accounting software markets.", "Recent acquisitions may drive future revenue growth after integration.", "High current valuation leaves little room for error in execution.", "Expanding subscription models enhance recurring revenue streams.", "Regulatory pressures on tax software could increase costs and limit pricing." ], "target_price_6m": 410, "target_price_12m": 430 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 363, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:08.398Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2161, "outputTokens": 4325, "costUsd": 0.002422 } }, { "id": "cmnr148xf04fbp658xk03zzdp", "runId": "cmnr148xd04f8p658t8arpgs4", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Equity Research Analyst AI\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"INTU\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 389.51,\n \"target_price_6m\": 425.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 460.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.7,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Dominant market share in SMB accounting and tax preparation provides a wide competitive moat.\",\n \"Integration of GenAI (Intuit Assist) enhances product value and potential ARPU growth.\",\n \"Credit Karma and Mailchimp provide significant cross-selling opportunities within the ecosystem.\",\n \"High switching costs for QuickBooks users ensure stable, recurring subscription revenue streams.\",\n \"Significant price correction from 52-week highs offers an attractive entry point for investors.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"GenAI adoption\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"SMB formation rates\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Tax regulation changes\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Credit Karma monetization\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Mailchimp integration efficiency\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Macroeconomic slowdown impacting SMB spending.\",\n \"Increased competition from niche fintech startups.\",\n \"Regulatory scrutiny over tax preparation software.\",\n \"Integration risks with large acquisitions like Mailchimp.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 12.5,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 38.0,\n \"wacc\": 9.5,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 25.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 340.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Recession leads to SMB churn and lower Credit Karma volumes.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 460.0,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Steady growth in QuickBooks and successful AI monetization.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 540.0,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated AI adoption and significant margin expansion from scale.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation derived from 32x forward P/E and DCF analysis. Recommendation reflects 18% upside from current levels. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "Equity Research Analyst AI", "risks": [ "Macroeconomic slowdown impacting SMB spending.", "Increased competition from niche fintech startups.", "Regulatory scrutiny over tax preparation software.", "Integration risks with large acquisitions like Mailchimp." ], "ticker": "INTU", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady growth in QuickBooks and successful AI monetization.", "target_price": 460 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Recession leads to SMB churn and lower Credit Karma volumes.", "target_price": 340 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Accelerated AI adoption and significant margin expansion from scale.", "target_price": 540 } }, "confidence": 0.7, "assumptions": { "wacc": 9.5, "revenue_cagr_3y": 12.5, "terminal_multiple": 25, "ebit_margin_target": 38 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "GenAI adoption", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "SMB formation rates", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Tax regulation changes", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Credit Karma monetization", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Mailchimp integration efficiency", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation derived from 32x forward P/E and DCF analysis. Recommendation reflects 18% upside from current levels. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 389.51, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Dominant market share in SMB accounting and tax preparation provides a wide competitive moat.", "Integration of GenAI (Intuit Assist) enhances product value and potential ARPU growth.", "Credit Karma and Mailchimp provide significant cross-selling opportunities within the ecosystem.", "High switching costs for QuickBooks users ensure stable, recurring subscription revenue streams.", "Significant price correction from 52-week highs offers an attractive entry point for investors." ], "target_price_6m": 425, "target_price_12m": 460 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [ { "error": "not_json_object: Output must be a single JSON object (no markdown/code fences, no extra text).", "attempt": 0, "rawOutputTruncated": "{\"model\":\"Equity Research Analyst AI\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"INTU\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":389.51,\"target_price_6m\":420.0,\"target_price_12m\":450.0,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.65,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Dominant market share in SMB accounting and tax preparation provides a wide moat.\",\"Integration of GenAI (Intuit Assist) enhances product value and potential ARPU growth.\",\"Credit Karma and Mailchimp provide significant cross-selling opportunities within the ecosystem.\",\"High switching costs for QuickBooks users ensure stable, recurring subscription revenue streams.\",\"Significant price correction from 52-week highs offers an attractive entry point for long-term investors.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"GenAI adoption\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"SMB formation rates\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Tax regulation changes\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Credit Karma monetization\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Mailchimp integration efficiency\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS" } ], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 14008, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:08.398Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2849, "outputTokens": 764, "costUsd": 0.014866 } }, { "id": "cmnr148xf04f9p658oirive91", "runId": "cmnr148xd04f8p658t8arpgs4", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"INTU\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":389.51,\"target_price_6m\":425,\"target_price_12m\":455,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.64,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"QuickBooks ecosystem supports durable subscription and payments growth.\",\"TurboTax and Credit Karma add seasonal cash generation and cross-sell.\",\"High margins and FCF enable continued product investment.\",\"Shares have de-rated, but still trade at premium software multiples.\",\"Execution and macro risks warrant only moderate conviction.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"QuickBooks online subscriber growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Payments and payroll attach\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"TurboTax Live mix shift\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Credit Karma recovery\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"AI feature monetization\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating leverage\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"SMB demand softness\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Valuation multiple compression\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"SMB spending pressure slows QuickBooks growth.\",\"Tax share loss or weak assisted conversion.\",\"AI costs rise faster than pricing power.\",\"Premium multiple remains rate-sensitive.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":11,\"ebit_margin_target\":31,\"wacc\":9,\"terminal_multiple\":28},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":335,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Growth slows and premium multiple compresses further.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":455,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Core ecosystem growth persists with modest margin expansion.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":560,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"AI upsell and SMB monetization reaccelerate growth.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Valuation uses a blended normalized EV/EBIT and FCF lens versus software peers, anchored on assumed 3Y growth and margin expansion. Snapshot quote fields kept authoritative; snapshot revenue appears anomalously low, so normalized assumptions used. No sell-side targets used; ~17% 12M upside supports BUY. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation", "risks": [ "SMB spending pressure slows QuickBooks growth.", "Tax share loss or weak assisted conversion.", "AI costs rise faster than pricing power.", "Premium multiple remains rate-sensitive." ], "ticker": "INTU", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Core ecosystem growth persists with modest margin expansion.", "target_price": 455 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Growth slows and premium multiple compresses further.", "target_price": 335 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "AI upsell and SMB monetization reaccelerate growth.", "target_price": 560 } }, "confidence": 0.64, "assumptions": { "wacc": 9, "revenue_cagr_3y": 11, "terminal_multiple": 28, "ebit_margin_target": 31 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "QuickBooks online subscriber growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Payments and payroll attach", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "TurboTax Live mix shift", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Credit Karma recovery", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "AI feature monetization", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating leverage", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "SMB demand softness", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Valuation multiple compression", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation uses a blended normalized EV/EBIT and FCF lens versus software peers, anchored on assumed 3Y growth and margin expansion. Snapshot quote fields kept authoritative; snapshot revenue appears anomalously low, so normalized assumptions used. 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Snapshot revenue decline appears anomalous vs history. not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Macro slowdown hits small business spending", "Increased competition in tax and accounting", "Challenges integrating acquired businesses", "Data privacy or tax law changes", "Multiple contraction from growth slowdown" ], "ticker": "INTU", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady execution and AI uptake deliver moderate upside.", "target_price": 460 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Persistent revenue weakness triggers further de-rating.", "target_price": 325 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Accelerated AI monetization exceeds growth targets.", "target_price": 575 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.13, "terminal_multiple": 34, "ebit_margin_target": 0.27 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Recurring revenue base", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "AI product innovation", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "SMB economic health", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Tax regulatory shifts", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Fintech competition", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "EBIT margin expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Acquisition synergies", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Valuation de-rating risk", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF using revenue CAGR, target EBIT margin, WACC and terminal EV/EBIT multiple; cross-checked with peer multiples. 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