{ "run": { "id": "cmnr148hn04e2p6589yxchs3d", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr148h804dyp658vdc70lfq", "ticker": "IEX", "snapshotId": "cmnr148hd04e0p658a24gpdtb", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:07.832Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr148hd04e0p658a24gpdtb", "assetId": "cmnr148h804dyp658vdc70lfq", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "open": null, "price": 197.85, "dayLow": 195.42, "volume": 621664, "dayHigh": 200.76, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 191.83, "week52Low": 157.25, "week52High": 217.16 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 27.7597503900156, "beta": 0.845194391666382, "epsTTM": 6.41, "fcfTTM": 597000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": -0.03753753753753754, "revenueYoy": 0.05772760646108663 }, "sector": "Pumps & Pumping Equipment", "margins": { "net": 0.1397541576283442, "gross": 0.445061460592914, "operating": 0.2022559652928416 }, "website": null, "industry": null, "pegRatio": -7.39519750390016, "ebitdaTTM": 693600000, "forwardPe": 21.4903381642512, "marketCap": 13228549364, "totalCash": 580000000, "totalDebt": 1830500000, "debtEquity": 0.454500310366232, "quickRatio": 1.914668057003823, "revenueTTM": 3457500000, "companyName": "IDEX CORP /DE/", "priceToBook": 3.32792260692464, "currentRatio": 2.855752519986097, "dividendYield": 0.0159192386349846, "returnOnAssets": 0.06975602714017612, "returnOnEquity": 0.119975170701428, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": null, "enterpriseValue": 14649382000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": null, "sharesOutstanding": 74347824, "enterpriseToEbitda": 21.12079296424452, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 4.236986840202459, "operatingCashflowTTM": 680400000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:07.826Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr148hq04e4p65820uxkr6r", "runId": "cmnr148hn04e2p6589yxchs3d", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"IEX\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":197.85,\"target_price_6m\":203,\"target_price_12m\":207,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.55,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Premium industrial compounder with strong FCF but rich valuation at 27.8x P/E\",\"Revenue grew 5.8% YoY but EPS declined 3.8%, signaling margin headwinds\",\"EV/EBITDA of 21x is elevated versus diversified industrial peers at 15-18x\",\"Forward P/E of 21.5x implies meaningful EPS recovery that is not yet visible in TTM\",\"Solid balance sheet and 1.6% dividend yield provide modest downside cushion\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Industrial cycle and order book trajectory\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Margin compression despite top-line growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Bolt-on M&A pipeline and integration execution\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Health & science segment demand recovery\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Elevated valuation multiples relative to peers\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Strong FCF conversion supporting capital allocation\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Tariff and input cost inflation pressures\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest expense from $1.83B total debt\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Industrial recession compresses volumes and pricing power significantly\",\"Multiple contraction from 27x+ P/E to peer-average 20-22x P/E\",\"Acquisition integration risk or overpayment dilutes returns\",\"Tariff escalation raises input costs faster than pricing offsets\",\"FX headwinds from strong USD eroding international revenue\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.05,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.22,\"wacc\":0.09,\"terminal_multiple\":20},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":165,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Industrial downturn drives earnings miss; multiple contracts to ~22x P/E.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":207,\"prob\":0.50,\"notes\":\"Modest organic growth and gradual margin recovery to ~21-22% EBIT margins.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":240,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Accelerating orders, margin expansion, and successful M&A boost EPS above $9.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended EV/EBITDA and P/E-based valuation anchored on TTM fundamentals. Forward P/E of 21.5x implies ~$9.21 forward EPS which requires significant recovery vs TTM $6.41; treated as aspirational. Base target reflects ~5% revenue CAGR, slight margin expansion, and stable 25-26x earnings multiple. Rich current valuation vs industrial peers and declining EPS trend limit upside conviction. Expected 12M return ~4.6% price + 1.6% yield ≈ 6.2%, near HOLD/BUY boundary; defaulting to HOLD given uncertainty. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Industrial recession compresses volumes and pricing power significantly", "Multiple contraction from 27x+ P/E to peer-average 20-22x P/E", "Acquisition integration risk or overpayment dilutes returns", "Tariff escalation raises input costs faster than pricing offsets", "FX headwinds from strong USD eroding international revenue" ], "ticker": "IEX", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Modest organic growth and gradual margin recovery to ~21-22% EBIT margins.", "target_price": 207 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Industrial downturn drives earnings miss; multiple contracts to ~22x P/E.", "target_price": 165 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Accelerating orders, margin expansion, and successful M&A boost EPS above $9.", "target_price": 240 } }, "confidence": 0.55, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 20, "ebit_margin_target": 0.22 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Industrial cycle and order book trajectory", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Margin compression despite top-line growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Bolt-on M&A pipeline and integration execution", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Health & science segment demand recovery", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Elevated valuation multiples relative to peers", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Strong FCF conversion supporting capital allocation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Tariff and input cost inflation pressures", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Interest expense from $1.83B total debt", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended EV/EBITDA and P/E-based valuation anchored on TTM fundamentals. Forward P/E of 21.5x implies ~$9.21 forward EPS which requires significant recovery vs TTM $6.41; treated as aspirational. Base target reflects ~5% revenue CAGR, slight margin expansion, and stable 25-26x earnings multiple. Rich current valuation vs industrial peers and declining EPS trend limit upside conviction. Expected 12M return ~4.6% price + 1.6% yield ≈ 6.2%, near HOLD/BUY boundary; defaulting to HOLD given uncertainty. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 197.85, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Premium industrial compounder with strong FCF but rich valuation at 27.8x P/E", "Revenue grew 5.8% YoY but EPS declined 3.8%, signaling margin headwinds", "EV/EBITDA of 21x is elevated versus diversified industrial peers at 15-18x", "Forward P/E of 21.5x implies meaningful EPS recovery that is not yet visible in TTM", "Solid balance sheet and 1.6% dividend yield provide modest downside cushion" ], "target_price_6m": 203, "target_price_12m": 207 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 44501, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:07.832Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3507, "outputTokens": 2105, "costUsd": 0.07016 } }, { "id": "cmnr148hq04e7p658s60n5imu", "runId": "cmnr148hn04e2p6589yxchs3d", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Equity_Research_Analyst_Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"IEX\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 197.85,\n \"target_price_6m\": 200.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 205.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Revenue growth from industrial automation trends.\",\n \"EPS decline due to cost pressures.\",\n \"Strong cash flow supports shareholder returns.\",\n \"Valuation appears fair versus peers.\",\n \"Cyclical exposure limits near-term upside.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Global industrial demand\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Revenue growth from new products\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Cost inflation in raw materials\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Operational efficiency gains\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competitive pricing pressure\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Acquisition integration success\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Currency exchange rate fluctuations\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Economic downturn reducing capital spending.\",\n \"Supply chain disruptions increasing costs.\",\n \"Failure to innovate against competitors.\",\n \"Rising interest rates affecting debt costs.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.055,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.21,\n \"wacc\": 0.08,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 12.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 185.0, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Slower growth and margin compression.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 205.0, \"prob\": 0.5, \"notes\": \"Moderate growth with stable margins.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 225.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong demand and cost savings.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on DCF with normalized multiples; base case implies ~3.6% upside, within HOLD range. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "Equity_Research_Analyst_Model", "risks": [ "Economic downturn reducing capital spending.", "Supply chain disruptions increasing costs.", "Failure to innovate against competitors.", "Rising interest rates affecting debt costs." ], "ticker": "IEX", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate growth with stable margins.", "target_price": 205 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Slower growth and margin compression.", "target_price": 185 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong demand and cost savings.", "target_price": 225 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.08, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.055, "terminal_multiple": 12, "ebit_margin_target": 0.21 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Global industrial demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Revenue growth from new products", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cost inflation in raw materials", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operational efficiency gains", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competitive pricing pressure", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Acquisition integration success", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Currency exchange rate fluctuations", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on DCF with normalized multiples; base case implies ~3.6% upside, within HOLD range. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 197.85, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Revenue growth from industrial automation trends.", "EPS decline due to cost pressures.", "Strong cash flow supports shareholder returns.", "Valuation appears fair versus peers.", "Cyclical exposure limits near-term upside." ], "target_price_6m": 200, "target_price_12m": 205 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 374, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:07.832Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2026, "outputTokens": 3138, "costUsd": 0.001885 } }, { "id": "cmnr148hq04e5p658c6tj7zac", "runId": "cmnr148hn04e2p6589yxchs3d", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"Equity Research Analyst AI\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"IEX\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":197.85,\"target_price_6m\":202.0,\"target_price_12m\":208.0,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.7,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Diversified portfolio provides resilience across various industrial and life science end markets.\",\"Strong free cash flow generation supports consistent M&A and dividend growth.\",\"Near-term headwinds in Health & Science Technologies segment are beginning to stabilize.\",\"Operating margins remain robust despite inflationary pressures and volume volatility.\",\"Valuation is currently fair, reflecting balanced risk-reward at 21.5x forward earnings.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Life Sciences recovery\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"M&A execution\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Industrial production\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Cost synergy realization\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest rate environment\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Supply chain efficiency\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Prolonged downturn in life sciences capital spending.\",\"Integration risks from aggressive acquisition strategy.\",\"Foreign exchange volatility impacting international revenue.\",\"Increased competition in niche fluidic technology markets.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.05,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.22,\"wacc\":0.085,\"terminal_multiple\":18.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":175.0,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Sustained industrial slowdown and margin compression.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":208.0,\"prob\":0.6,\"notes\":\"Moderate growth and steady margin improvement.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":245.0,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Rapid life sciences rebound and accretive M&A.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Valuation based on 22x forward P/E and DCF. HOLD reflects limited upside to fair value. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "Equity Research Analyst AI", "risks": [ "Prolonged downturn in life sciences capital spending.", "Integration risks from aggressive acquisition strategy.", "Foreign exchange volatility impacting international revenue.", "Increased competition in niche fluidic technology markets." ], "ticker": "IEX", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Moderate growth and steady margin improvement.", "target_price": 208 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Sustained industrial slowdown and margin compression.", "target_price": 175 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Rapid life sciences rebound and accretive M&A.", "target_price": 245 } }, "confidence": 0.7, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 18, "ebit_margin_target": 0.22 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Life Sciences recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "M&A execution", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Industrial production", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cost synergy realization", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Supply chain efficiency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on 22x forward P/E and DCF. HOLD reflects limited upside to fair value. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 197.85, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Diversified portfolio provides resilience across various industrial and life science end markets.", "Strong free cash flow generation supports consistent M&A and dividend growth.", "Near-term headwinds in Health & Science Technologies segment are beginning to stabilize.", "Operating margins remain robust despite inflationary pressures and volume volatility.", "Valuation is currently fair, reflecting balanced risk-reward at 21.5x forward earnings." ], "target_price_6m": 202, "target_price_12m": 208 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [ { "error": "not_json_object: Output must be a single JSON object (no markdown/code fences, no extra text).", "attempt": 0, "rawOutputTruncated": "{\"model\":\"Equity Research Analyst AI\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"IEX\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":197.85,\"target_price_6m\":202.0,\"target_price_12m\":208.0,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.7,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Diversified portfolio provides resilience across various industrial and life science end markets.\",\"Strong free cash flow generation supports consistent M&A and dividend growth.\",\"Near-term headwinds in Health & Science Technologies segment are beginning to stabilize.\",\"Operating margins remain robust despite inflationary pressures and volume volatility.\",\"Valuation is currently fair, reflecting balanced risk-reward at 21.5x forward earnings.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Life Sciences recovery\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"M&A execution\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Industrial production\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Cost synergy realization\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest rate environment\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Supply chain efficiency\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"ris" } ], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 21127, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:07.832Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2716, "outputTokens": 481, "costUsd": 0.011204 } }, { "id": "cmnr148hq04e3p65836720msp", "runId": "cmnr148hn04e2p6589yxchs3d", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"OpenAI o3\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"IEX\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":197.85,\"target_price_6m\":202.0,\"target_price_12m\":206.0,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.64,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"High-quality niche industrial portfolio supports resilient margins and cash conversion.\",\"Revenue is still growing, but recent EPS contraction tempers near-term enthusiasm.\",\"Balance sheet and liquidity are solid despite moderate leverage.\",\"Valuation already discounts much of the quality premium versus growth profile.\",\"Risk/reward looks balanced unless orders accelerate or margins re-rate higher.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Recurring aftermarket demand\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Margin resilience\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Process industries capex\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Acquisition integration\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Rich valuation multiple\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"EPS growth slowdown\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest expense/leverage\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Defensive end-market mix\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Industrial demand softens further\",\"Multiple compression from slower growth\",\"M&A execution disappoints\",\"Input cost inflation pressures margins\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.055,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.215,\"wacc\":0.083,\"terminal_multiple\":18.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":170.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Orders weaken and premium multiple contracts on slower earnings.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":206.0,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Mid-single-digit growth and stable margins support modest appreciation.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":235.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Stronger bookings and mix drive earnings recovery and sustained premium valuation.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Snapshot fields used unchanged. Target based on blended forward earnings/EV-EBITDA framework using stated assumptions; no sell-side targets used. Recommendation is HOLD because 12M upside vs current price is about 4%, within fair-value range; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "OpenAI o3", "risks": [ "Industrial demand softens further", "Multiple compression from slower growth", "M&A execution disappoints", "Input cost inflation pressures margins" ], "ticker": "IEX", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Mid-single-digit growth and stable margins support modest appreciation.", "target_price": 206 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Orders weaken and premium multiple contracts on slower earnings.", "target_price": 170 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Stronger bookings and mix drive earnings recovery and sustained premium valuation.", "target_price": 235 } }, "confidence": 0.64, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.083, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.055, "terminal_multiple": 18.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.215 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Recurring aftermarket demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Margin resilience", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Process industries capex", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Acquisition integration", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Rich valuation multiple", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "EPS growth slowdown", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Interest expense/leverage", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Defensive end-market mix", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Snapshot fields used unchanged. Target based on blended forward earnings/EV-EBITDA framework using stated assumptions; no sell-side targets used. Recommendation is HOLD because 12M upside vs current price is about 4%, within fair-value range; not investment advice.", "current_price": 197.85, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "High-quality niche industrial portfolio supports resilient margins and cash conversion.", "Revenue is still growing, but recent EPS contraction tempers near-term enthusiasm.", "Balance sheet and liquidity are solid despite moderate leverage.", "Valuation already discounts much of the quality premium versus growth profile.", "Risk/reward looks balanced unless orders accelerate or margins re-rate higher." ], "target_price_6m": 202, "target_price_12m": 206 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0e1be6465011c1690069d75a16bc388195bfa2355361b16d06", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 20754, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:07.832Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2297, "outputTokens": 1014, "costUsd": 0.018216 } }, { "id": "cmnr148hq04e6p658m4dwtzlb", "runId": "cmnr148hn04e2p6589yxchs3d", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Fundamental Valuation Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"IEX\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 197.85,\n \"target_price_6m\": 210,\n \"target_price_12m\": 225,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Balanced portfolio cushions against cyclical downturns.\",\n \"Robust FCF enables shareholder returns and investments.\",\n \"Forward valuation multiple aligns with expected growth.\",\n \"Technological innovation fuels long-term market share gains.\",\n \"Macro uncertainties cloud short-term industrial demand.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Industrial demand recovery\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Health & science growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Margin expansion programs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"New product innovation\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Economic slowdown risks\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Commodity price volatility\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Acquisition integration\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"FX headwinds\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged industrial downturn\",\n \"Failure to expand margins\",\n \"Rising interest expenses\",\n \"Increased competition\",\n \"Supply chain disruptions\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.055,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.215,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 19.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 175,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Recession hits industrial sales hard.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 225,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Moderate growth and stable margins.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 260,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Strong demand drives expansion.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF using 5.5% rev CAGR, 21.5% EBIT margin, 8.5% WACC, 19.5x terminal. 13.7% upside supports BUY. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Fundamental Valuation Model", "risks": [ "Prolonged industrial downturn", "Failure to expand margins", "Rising interest expenses", "Increased competition", "Supply chain disruptions" ], "ticker": "IEX", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate growth and stable margins.", "target_price": 225 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Recession hits industrial sales hard.", "target_price": 175 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong demand drives expansion.", "target_price": 260 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.055, "terminal_multiple": 19.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.215 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Industrial demand recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Health & science growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Margin expansion programs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "New product innovation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Economic slowdown risks", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Commodity price volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Acquisition integration", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "FX headwinds", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF using 5.5% rev CAGR, 21.5% EBIT margin, 8.5% WACC, 19.5x terminal. 13.7% upside supports BUY. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 197.85, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Balanced portfolio cushions against cyclical downturns.", "Robust FCF enables shareholder returns and investments.", "Forward valuation multiple aligns with expected growth.", "Technological innovation fuels long-term market share gains.", "Macro uncertainties cloud short-term industrial demand." ], "target_price_6m": 210, "target_price_12m": 225 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "9dff856d-9fb6-9602-a7ed-29f266276716", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 17766, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:07.832Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2637, "outputTokens": 3359, "costUsd": 0.058296 } } ] } }