{ "run": { "id": "cmnr144cy048lp658buujn1lr", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr1448d0486p6584y22eozx", "ticker": "HOOD", "snapshotId": "cmnr144c8048fp658ea3ae2bp", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:02.480Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr144c8048fp658ea3ae2bp", "assetId": "cmnr1448d0486p6584y22eozx", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "open": null, "price": 71.83, "dayLow": 71.31, "volume": 32472795, "dayHigh": 77.87, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 69.65, "week52Low": 33.085, "week52High": 153.86 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 53.3490566037736, "beta": 2.09125275786549, "epsTTM": 2.12, "fcfTTM": 1537000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.325, "revenueYoy": 0.515757370382921 }, "sector": "Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies", "margins": { "net": 0.4209702660406886, "gross": null, "operating": null }, "website": "http://robinhood.com", "industry": "Financial services", "pegRatio": 1.64150943396226, "ebitdaTTM": 3578000000, "forwardPe": 47.125, "marketCap": 71300000000, "totalCash": 5077752000, "totalDebt": 5189783000, "debtEquity": -2.614811131197462, "quickRatio": 0.8579377621877153, "revenueTTM": 4473000000, "companyName": "Robinhood Markets, Inc.", "priceToBook": 10.981303764594, "currentRatio": 1.462457790984452, "dividendYield": null, "returnOnAssets": 0.1040988176961577, "returnOnEquity": 0.205769861217353, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Robinhood Markets, Inc. is an American financial services company based in Menlo Park, California. It provides an electronic trading platform that facilitates trades of stocks, exchange-traded funds, options, index options, futures contracts, event contracts on prediction markets, and cryptocurrency. It also offers cryptocurrency wallets, wealth management, credit cards and other banking services, some in partnership with banks insured by the FDIC, as well as a news website, Sherwood.News.", "enterpriseValue": null, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 2900, "sharesOutstanding": null, "enterpriseToEbitda": null, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": null, "operatingCashflowTTM": 1638000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:02.456Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr144d1048pp658zdd9bdwq", "runId": "cmnr144cy048lp658buujn1lr", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Equity Research Model v1.0\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"HOOD\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":71.83,\"target_price_6m\":80,\"target_price_12m\":87,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.57,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Strong revenue growth of 51.6% YoY with diversified product expansion\",\"Net margins at 42% demonstrate exceptional operating leverage at scale\",\"Significant pullback from 52-week high of $153.86 creates better entry point\",\"High beta of 2.09 amplifies downside risk in volatile macro environments\",\"Valuation at 53x trailing PE remains stretched despite growth trajectory\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Crypto and options trading revenue growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Expansion into wealth management, credit cards, and banking\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating leverage driving margin expansion\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Young retail user base with increasing wallet share\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Macro volatility and tariff uncertainty dampening risk appetite\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Crypto regulatory overhang and price sensitivity\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Multiple compression risk at 53x PE in risk-off environment\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Competition from incumbents and new fintech entrants\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Crypto winter or regulatory crackdown severely impacts transaction revenue\",\"Market downturn reduces retail trading volumes and AUC growth\",\"Regulatory changes limiting payment-for-order-flow or event contracts\",\"High beta stock in macro-uncertain environment may see further drawdowns\",\"Concentration risk in transaction-based revenue model\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.22,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.38,\"wacc\":0.12,\"terminal_multiple\":28},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":48,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Crypto downturn plus macro recession compresses volumes and multiples to 22x forward.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":87,\"prob\":0.50,\"notes\":\"Continued 25%+ revenue growth, moderate PE compression to ~32x on ~$2.75 EPS.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":130,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Crypto bull market, new products accelerate, multiple re-rates toward 45x on $2.90+ EPS.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Earnings-power valuation anchoring on forward EPS of ~$2.75 (25-30% growth) with PE range of 28-35x reflecting growth deceleration and macro risk. 12M base target of $87 implies ~21% return. 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Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model v1.0", "risks": [ "Crypto winter or regulatory crackdown severely impacts transaction revenue", "Market downturn reduces retail trading volumes and AUC growth", "Regulatory changes limiting payment-for-order-flow or event contracts", "High beta stock in macro-uncertain environment may see further drawdowns", "Concentration risk in transaction-based revenue model" ], "ticker": "HOOD", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Continued 25%+ revenue growth, moderate PE compression to ~32x on ~$2.75 EPS.", "target_price": 87 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Crypto downturn plus macro recession compresses volumes and multiples to 22x forward.", "target_price": 48 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Crypto bull market, new products accelerate, multiple re-rates toward 45x on $2.90+ EPS.", "target_price": 130 } }, "confidence": 0.57, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.12, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.22, "terminal_multiple": 28, "ebit_margin_target": 0.38 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Crypto and options trading revenue growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Expansion into wealth management, credit cards, and banking", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating leverage driving margin expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Young retail user base with increasing wallet share", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macro volatility and tariff uncertainty dampening risk appetite", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Crypto regulatory overhang and price sensitivity", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Multiple compression risk at 53x PE in risk-off environment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competition from incumbents and new fintech entrants", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Earnings-power valuation anchoring on forward EPS of ~$2.75 (25-30% growth) with PE range of 28-35x reflecting growth deceleration and macro risk. 12M base target of $87 implies ~21% return. BUY (not STRONG_BUY) due to high beta, macro uncertainty, and elevated starting multiple limiting confidence to 0.57. PEG of 1.64 suggests fair-to-slightly-rich on growth-adjusted basis. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 71.83, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong revenue growth of 51.6% YoY with diversified product expansion", "Net margins at 42% demonstrate exceptional operating leverage at scale", "Significant pullback from 52-week high of $153.86 creates better entry point", "High beta of 2.09 amplifies downside risk in volatile macro environments", "Valuation at 53x trailing PE remains stretched despite growth trajectory" ], "target_price_6m": 80, "target_price_12m": 87 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 41768, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:21:02.480Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3571, "outputTokens": 1849, "costUsd": 0.06408 } }, { "id": "cmnr144d1048sp658fb0qgbuz", "runId": "cmnr144cy048lp658buujn1lr", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI_Equity_Research_v1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"HOOD\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 71.83,\n \"target_price_6m\": 73.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 75.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\"Strong revenue growth from service expansion.\", \"High valuation multiples may compress over time.\", \"Profitability improvements with operational scaling.\", \"Regulatory risks in crypto and trading.\", \"Mixed evidence supports balanced risk-reward.\"],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\"driver\": \"User Growth\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Revenue Growth Rate\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Regulatory Environment\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Interest Rate Changes\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Market Volatility\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Technological Innovation\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Competitive Pressure\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"}\n ],\n \"risks\": [\"Increased financial regulation\", \"Economic downturn reducing trading volumes\", \"Cybersecurity incidents\", \"High dependence on market conditions\", \"Intense industry competition\"],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.2,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.3,\n \"wacc\": 0.12,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 30\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\"target_price\": 60.0, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Regulatory hurdles and slowed growth.\"},\n \"base\": {\"target_price\": 75.0, \"prob\": 0.5, \"notes\": \"Moderate growth with valuation adjustment.\"},\n \"bull\": {\"target_price\": 90.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong adoption and margin expansion.\"}\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF valuation with assumed growth and margins. 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\"AI Equity Analyst\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"HOOD\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 71.83,\n \"target_price_6m\": 78,\n \"target_price_12m\": 86,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.61,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong revenue growth from trading crypto and banking.\",\n \"High net margins above 40% with solid FCF.\",\n \"Product expansion drives user monetization.\",\n \"Elevated 53x PE valuation limits multiple upside.\",\n \"Regulatory and market volatility create risks.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Revenue growth diversification\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Crypto trading volumes\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Margin expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"User base growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory scrutiny\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Market volatility\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Competition in fintech\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest income environment\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Regulatory fines or restrictions\",\n \"Dependence on volatile trading\",\n \"Valuation multiple contraction\",\n \"Economic downturn impact\",\n \"Cybersecurity breaches\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.22,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.33,\n \"wacc\": 0.11,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 28\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 48,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Regulatory crackdown and market crash.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 86,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Steady execution on growth and margins.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 125,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated adoption of new products.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF using 22% 3Y revenue CAGR, 33% EBIT margin, 11% WACC and 28x terminal. 20% expected return supports BUY. not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Analyst", "risks": [ "Regulatory fines or restrictions", "Dependence on volatile trading", "Valuation multiple contraction", "Economic downturn impact", "Cybersecurity breaches" ], "ticker": "HOOD", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady execution on growth and margins.", "target_price": 86 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Regulatory crackdown and market crash.", "target_price": 48 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated adoption of new products.", "target_price": 125 } }, "confidence": 0.61, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.11, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.22, "terminal_multiple": 28, "ebit_margin_target": 0.33 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Revenue 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