{ "run": { "id": "cmnr13zi1041up658flsvacqh", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr13zhn041qp658k08ghdzc", "ticker": "GNRC", "snapshotId": "cmnr13zht041sp6582wc2u79y", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:56.182Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr13zht041sp6582wc2u79y", "assetId": "cmnr13zhn041qp658k08ghdzc", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "open": null, "price": 202.93, "dayLow": 199.53, "volume": 822782, "dayHigh": 205.29, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 191.1, "week52Low": 99.5, "week52High": 241.09 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 49.952380952381, "beta": 1.64865424133899, "epsTTM": 2.73, "fcfTTM": 119561000, "growth": { "epsYoy": -0.5, "revenueYoy": -0.02017931791591574 }, "sector": "Motors & Generators", "margins": { "net": 0.03790649269317513, "gross": 0.3829129750041992, "operating": 0.06870536952023772 }, "website": "http://generac.com", "industry": "Manufacturing", "pegRatio": -0.999047619047619, "ebitdaTTM": 514501000, "forwardPe": 16.4897218863362, "marketCap": 8000000000, "totalCash": 341413000, "totalDebt": 1310874000, "debtEquity": 0.497972589501227, "quickRatio": 0.7768586065202832, "revenueTTM": 4209147000, "companyName": "GENERAC HOLDINGS INC.", "priceToBook": 3.02414927952753, "currentRatio": 2.02615386893938, "dividendYield": 0.0000367127937840002, "returnOnAssets": 0.02862633459874528, "returnOnEquity": 0.0606111026271624, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Generac Holdings Inc., commonly referred to as Generac (derived from a combination of generating and AC), is an American manufacturer of backup power generation products for residential, light commercial, and industrial markets. Generac's power systems range in output from 800 watts to 9 megawatts and are available through independent dealers, retailers, and wholesalers. Generac has headquarters in Waukesha, Wisconsin, and manufacturing facilities in Berlin, Oshkosh, Jefferson, Eagle, and Whitewater, all in Wisconsin.", "enterpriseValue": 8950330059.54, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 9239, "sharesOutstanding": 58675827, "enterpriseToEbitda": 17.39613734383412, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 2.126399971191313, "operatingCashflowTTM": 437978000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:56.177Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr13zi3041wp658n3bhzl7m", "runId": "cmnr13zi1041up658flsvacqh", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"GNRC\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":202.93,\"target_price_6m\":212.0,\"target_price_12m\":222.0,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.55,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Forward PE ~16.5x implies substantial earnings recovery already priced in\",\"Operating margins at 6.9% well below historical 15-18% norm suggest upside\",\"Grid instability and electrification trends provide secular demand tailwinds\",\"Elevated debt ($1.3B) constrains flexibility during cyclical troughs\",\"EPS down 50% YoY signals trough earnings; recovery trajectory is key\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Margin recovery from depressed 6.9% operating margin toward normalized levels\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Residential standby generator demand driven by grid reliability concerns\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Energy transition and clean energy storage product expansion\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Revenue growth resumption after -2% YoY decline\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Elevated net debt (~$970M) and interest expense drag on earnings\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"High beta (1.65) amplifies downside in risk-off markets\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"TTM EPS of $2.73 implies potential one-time charges or deep cyclical trough\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Forward PE gap vs TTM PE signals Street expecting massive earnings snapback\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Margin recovery fails to materialize if input costs rise or mix deteriorates\",\"Mild weather seasons reduce power outage-driven demand significantly\",\"Macro slowdown depresses residential construction and consumer discretionary spend\",\"Competitive pressure from new entrants in home energy storage and backup power\",\"Execution risk on clean energy/storage product line expansion\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.06,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.14,\"wacc\":0.105,\"terminal_multiple\":18.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":150.0,\"prob\":0.20,\"notes\":\"Margins stay depressed, macro weakness persists, revenue flat to declining.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":222.0,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Gradual margin recovery to ~12-14%, mid-single-digit revenue growth resumes.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":275.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Strong storm season, accelerated energy transition, margins normalize above 16%.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended valuation using normalized earnings power (forward EPS ~$12 at 18x = ~$216) cross-checked with EV/EBITDA on recovery EBITDA (~$700M at 14x = ~$9.8B EV → ~$150/share equity). Forward PE-based approach yields higher fair value; weighted blend supports ~$222 12M target (~9.4% upside → BUY). Confidence moderate (0.55) due to large TTM-to-forward EPS gap uncertainty and cyclical sensitivity. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Margin recovery fails to materialize if input costs rise or mix deteriorates", "Mild weather seasons reduce power outage-driven demand significantly", "Macro slowdown depresses residential construction and consumer discretionary spend", "Competitive pressure from new entrants in home energy storage and backup power", "Execution risk on clean energy/storage product line expansion" ], "ticker": "GNRC", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Gradual margin recovery to ~12-14%, mid-single-digit revenue growth resumes.", "target_price": 222 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Margins stay depressed, macro weakness persists, revenue flat to declining.", "target_price": 150 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong storm season, accelerated energy transition, margins normalize above 16%.", "target_price": 275 } }, "confidence": 0.55, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.105, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 18, "ebit_margin_target": 0.14 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Margin recovery from depressed 6.9% operating margin toward normalized levels", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Residential standby generator demand driven by grid reliability concerns", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Energy transition and clean energy storage product expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Revenue growth resumption after -2% YoY decline", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Elevated net debt (~$970M) and interest expense drag on earnings", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "High beta (1.65) amplifies downside in risk-off markets", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "TTM EPS of $2.73 implies potential one-time charges or deep cyclical trough", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Forward PE gap vs TTM PE signals Street expecting massive earnings snapback", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended valuation using normalized earnings power (forward EPS ~$12 at 18x = ~$216) cross-checked with EV/EBITDA on recovery EBITDA (~$700M at 14x = ~$9.8B EV → ~$150/share equity). Forward PE-based approach yields higher fair value; weighted blend supports ~$222 12M target (~9.4% upside → BUY). Confidence moderate (0.55) due to large TTM-to-forward EPS gap uncertainty and cyclical sensitivity. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 202.93, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Forward PE ~16.5x implies substantial earnings recovery already priced in", "Operating margins at 6.9% well below historical 15-18% norm suggest upside", "Grid instability and electrification trends provide secular demand tailwinds", "Elevated debt ($1.3B) constrains flexibility during cyclical troughs", "EPS down 50% YoY signals trough earnings; recovery trajectory is key" ], "target_price_6m": 212, "target_price_12m": 222 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 38177, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:56.182Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3628, "outputTokens": 1746, "costUsd": 0.06179 } }, { "id": "cmnr13zi3041zp6586v26m7xd", "runId": "cmnr13zi1041up658flsvacqh", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"GNRC\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 202.93,\n \"target_price_6m\": 215.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 225.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Revenue recovery from backup power demand.\",\n \"Margin expansion through operational efficiencies.\",\n \"Energy transition driving long-term growth.\",\n \"Valuation discount versus forward earnings.\",\n \"Cyclical improvement in industrial markets.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Energy instability and grid demand\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Economic growth and industrial activity\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Supply chain and cost management\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competitive intensity in power generation\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory support for backup systems\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt levels and interest expense\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Product innovation and market expansion\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Macroeconomic recession reducing demand\",\n \"Rising interest rates increasing costs\",\n \"Intensified competition from rivals\",\n \"Supply chain disruptions affecting production\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.08,\n \"wacc\": 0.08,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 12.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 180.0, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Economic downturn leads to lower sales.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 225.0, \"prob\": 0.5, \"notes\": \"Steady recovery with margin gains.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 260.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong growth from new opportunities.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF with assumed growth and margins; BUY due to ~11% 12M upside. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Macroeconomic recession reducing demand", "Rising interest rates increasing costs", "Intensified competition from rivals", "Supply chain disruptions affecting production" ], "ticker": "GNRC", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady recovery with margin gains.", "target_price": 225 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Economic downturn leads to lower sales.", "target_price": 180 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong growth from new opportunities.", "target_price": 260 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.08, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 12, "ebit_margin_target": 0.08 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Energy instability and grid demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Economic growth and industrial activity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Supply chain and cost management", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive intensity in power generation", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory support for backup systems", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt levels and interest expense", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Product innovation and market expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "DCF with assumed growth and margins; BUY due to ~11% 12M upside. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 202.93, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Revenue recovery from backup power demand.", "Margin expansion through operational efficiencies.", "Energy transition driving long-term growth.", "Valuation discount versus forward earnings.", "Cyclical improvement in industrial markets." ], "target_price_6m": 215, "target_price_12m": 225 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 379, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:56.182Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2139, "outputTokens": 3302, "costUsd": 0.001986 } }, { "id": "cmnr13zi3041xp6582wx010a0", "runId": "cmnr13zi1041up658flsvacqh", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"EquityResearch_v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"GNRC\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":202.93,\"target_price_6m\":215.0,\"target_price_12m\":225.0,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.65,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Forward PE of 16.5x implies strong earnings recovery following recent channel destocking headwinds.\",\"Grid instability and extreme weather events continue to drive long-term home standby generator demand.\",\"Commercial and industrial segment provides diversification and steady growth outside residential markets.\",\"Clean energy and storage initiatives offer long-term upside but face near-term margin pressure.\",\"High beta and reliance on consumer financing present risks in a higher-for-longer rate environment.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Extreme weather events\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Grid reliability concerns\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Consumer financing rates\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Channel inventory destocking\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"C&I segment growth\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Clean energy product adoption\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Raw material costs\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Prolonged high interest rates dampening consumer demand for big-ticket home upgrades.\",\"Slower than expected clearing of residential dealer inventories.\",\"Milder weather seasons reducing immediate catalyst for standby generator purchases.\",\"Intensifying competition in the residential solar and energy storage markets.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.08,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.14,\"wacc\":0.095,\"terminal_multiple\":16.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":160.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Consumer spending weakens and channel destocking persists, compressing margins.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":225.0,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Earnings recover as expected with normalized dealer inventories and steady C&I growth.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":275.0,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Severe weather events drive a surge in home standby demand and clean energy adoption.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Valuation based on a blend of forward P/E (18x on normalized EPS) and DCF. The 12M target of $225 implies ~11% upside, supporting a BUY rating. High beta and consumer financing sensitivity warrant a medium confidence level. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch_v1", "risks": [ "Prolonged high interest rates dampening consumer demand for big-ticket home upgrades.", "Slower than expected clearing of residential dealer inventories.", "Milder weather seasons reducing immediate catalyst for standby generator purchases.", "Intensifying competition in the residential solar and energy storage markets." ], "ticker": "GNRC", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Earnings recover as expected with normalized dealer inventories and steady C&I growth.", "target_price": 225 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Consumer spending weakens and channel destocking persists, compressing margins.", "target_price": 160 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Severe weather events drive a surge in home standby demand and clean energy adoption.", "target_price": 275 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 16, "ebit_margin_target": 0.14 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Extreme weather events", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Grid reliability concerns", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Consumer financing rates", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Channel inventory destocking", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "C&I segment growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Clean energy product adoption", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Raw material costs", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a blend of forward P/E (18x on normalized EPS) and DCF. The 12M target of $225 implies ~11% upside, supporting a BUY rating. High beta and consumer financing sensitivity warrant a medium confidence level. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 202.93, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Forward PE of 16.5x implies strong earnings recovery following recent channel destocking headwinds.", "Grid instability and extreme weather events continue to drive long-term home standby generator demand.", "Commercial and industrial segment provides diversification and steady growth outside residential markets.", "Clean energy and storage initiatives offer long-term upside but face near-term margin pressure.", "High beta and reliance on consumer financing present risks in a higher-for-longer rate environment." ], "target_price_6m": 215, "target_price_12m": 225 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 31038, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:56.182Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2481, "outputTokens": 583, "costUsd": 0.011958 } }, { "id": "cmnr13zi3041vp658vmc5yyf6", "runId": "cmnr13zi1041up658flsvacqh", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"OpenAI o3\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"GNRC\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":202.93,\"target_price_6m\":209.0,\"target_price_12m\":214.0,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.61,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Home standby replacement cycle and outage frequency support medium-term demand.\",\"C&I and energy technology expand TAM beyond residential generators.\",\"Margins can recover as destocking fades and utilization improves.\",\"Valuation already discounts much of a cyclical earnings rebound.\",\"High beta, weather dependence, and policy uncertainty limit near-term upside.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Residential standby demand\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"C&I project orders\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Energy tech adoption\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Gross margin recovery\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Dealer inventory normalization\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Housing/remodel activity\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Tariffs and input costs\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Grid outage frequency\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Residential demand stays weak longer.\",\"Tariffs raise steel and electronics costs.\",\"Weather normalization reduces emergency demand.\",\"Energy technology scaling misses expectations.\",\"Leverage limits flexibility in a downturn.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":6.5,\"ebit_margin_target\":11.5,\"wacc\":9.5,\"terminal_multiple\":15.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":160.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Housing softness and weak outage activity keep margins subdued.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":214.0,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Inventory normalizes and earnings recover toward mid-cycle levels.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":255.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Outage-driven demand rebounds and energy tech mix lifts margins.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"12M target uses blended normalized P/E and EV/EBITDA on assumed recovery to mid-cycle margins, anchored to snapshot fundamentals. Mixed demand and valuation imply limited upside, hence HOLD. Snapshot quote fields retained; no sell-side targets used; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "OpenAI o3", "risks": [ "Residential demand stays weak longer.", "Tariffs raise steel and electronics costs.", "Weather normalization reduces emergency demand.", "Energy technology scaling misses expectations.", "Leverage limits flexibility in a downturn." ], "ticker": "GNRC", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Inventory normalizes and earnings recover toward mid-cycle levels.", "target_price": 214 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Housing softness and weak outage activity keep margins subdued.", "target_price": 160 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Outage-driven demand rebounds and energy tech mix lifts margins.", "target_price": 255 } }, "confidence": 0.61, "assumptions": { "wacc": 9.5, "revenue_cagr_3y": 6.5, "terminal_multiple": 15, "ebit_margin_target": 11.5 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Residential standby demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "C&I project orders", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Energy tech adoption", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Gross margin recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dealer inventory normalization", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Housing/remodel activity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Tariffs and input costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Grid outage frequency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "12M target uses blended normalized P/E and EV/EBITDA on assumed recovery to mid-cycle margins, anchored to snapshot fundamentals. Mixed demand and valuation imply limited upside, hence HOLD. 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Weighted scenario target implies modest upside. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Prolonged housing market slump", "Commodity cost inflation", "Supply chain disruptions", "Rising interest expense on debt", "Intensifying industry competition" ], "ticker": "GNRC", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Gradual demand recovery aligns with expectations.", "target_price": 215 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.35, "notes": "Housing slump and margin compression persist.", "target_price": 160 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.15, "notes": "Strong growth from new energy products.", "target_price": 265 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 15, "ebit_margin_target": 0.1 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Extreme weather events", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Housing market trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Energy storage adoption", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Data center backup demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Raw material cost volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competitive intensity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Macroeconomic recovery", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory resilience incentives", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "DCF valuation using revenue CAGR, EBIT margin target, WACC and terminal multiple. 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