{ "run": { "id": "cmnr13ppq03vcp6585uxnmw03", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr13poe03uxp658oxw1gv12", "ticker": "FOXA", "snapshotId": "cmnr13ppf03v3p658wgg6syrr", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:43.500Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr13ppf03v3p658wgg6syrr", "assetId": "cmnr13poe03uxp658oxw1gv12", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "open": null, "price": 60.22, "dayLow": 59.58, "volume": 3283359, "dayHigh": 60.38, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 59.65, "week52Low": 46.42, "week52High": 76.39 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 28.4, "epsTTM": 6.62, "fcfTTM": 102000000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.08, "revenueYoy": 0.04 }, "margins": { "net": 0.25, "gross": 0.44, "operating": 0.3 }, "marketCap": 2900000000000, "debtEquity": 1.65, "revenueTTM": 395000000000 } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:43.492Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr13pps03vep658nake4ikc", "runId": "cmnr13ppq03vcp6585uxnmw03", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"FOXA\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":60.22,\"target_price_6m\":64.5,\"target_price_12m\":69.0,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.6,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Fox News dominance supports durable high-margin cable network revenue\",\"Tubi's ad-supported streaming growth diversifies away from linear TV\",\"Sports rights portfolio strengthens affiliate and advertising pricing power\",\"Implied trailing PE of ~9x undervalues stable cash-generating media assets\",\"Cord-cutting secular headwind partially offset by digital/streaming transition\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Fox News cable ratings leadership and political cycle tailwinds\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Tubi subscriber and engagement growth trajectory\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Sports rights renewals driving affiliate fee escalators\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Secular cord-cutting eroding linear TV subscriber base\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Advertising market cyclicality and macro sensitivity\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Cost discipline and operating leverage at 30% EBIT margin\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Debt/equity at 1.65 limits balance sheet flexibility\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Political advertising spend boost in election cycles\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Accelerated cord-cutting reduces linear TV revenue faster than expected\",\"Advertising recession compresses top-line growth and margins\",\"Regulatory or reputational risk affecting Fox News viewership\",\"Rising sports rights costs squeeze profitability\",\"Competition from larger streaming platforms limits Tubi upside\",\"Leverage constrains shareholder returns and strategic flexibility\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.04,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.28,\"wacc\":0.10,\"terminal_multiple\":11.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":50.0,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Ad recession plus accelerated cord-cutting compresses earnings to ~$5.50 EPS at 9x.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":68.0,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Mid-single-digit revenue growth, stable margins, modest PE expansion to ~10.5x.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":82.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Tubi inflects, strong political ad cycle, PE re-rates toward 12x on ~$6.80 EPS.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Valuation anchored on implied trailing PE (~9.1x from snapshot price/EPS) with upside from modest multiple expansion as Tubi scales and sports rights appreciate. Snapshot fundamentals (market cap $2.9T, rev $395B, FCF $102B) appear misscaled vs actual Fox Corp figures; retained snapshot price/EPS as primary inputs. Used EPS-based earnings power framework with 10-12x PE range for media peers. 12M target ~14.6% upside supports BUY. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Accelerated cord-cutting reduces linear TV revenue faster than expected", "Advertising recession compresses top-line growth and margins", "Regulatory or reputational risk affecting Fox News viewership", "Rising sports rights costs squeeze profitability", "Competition from larger streaming platforms limits Tubi upside", "Leverage constrains shareholder returns and strategic flexibility" ], "ticker": "FOXA", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Mid-single-digit revenue growth, stable margins, modest PE expansion to ~10.5x.", "target_price": 68 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Ad recession plus accelerated cord-cutting compresses earnings to ~$5.50 EPS at 9x.", "target_price": 50 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Tubi inflects, strong political ad cycle, PE re-rates toward 12x on ~$6.80 EPS.", "target_price": 82 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.1, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 11, "ebit_margin_target": 0.28 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Fox News cable ratings leadership and political cycle tailwinds", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Tubi subscriber and engagement growth trajectory", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Sports rights renewals driving affiliate fee escalators", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Secular cord-cutting eroding linear TV subscriber base", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Advertising market cyclicality and macro sensitivity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Cost discipline and operating leverage at 30% EBIT margin", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt/equity at 1.65 limits balance sheet flexibility", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Political advertising spend boost in election cycles", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation anchored on implied trailing PE (~9.1x from snapshot price/EPS) with upside from modest multiple expansion as Tubi scales and sports rights appreciate. Snapshot fundamentals (market cap $2.9T, rev $395B, FCF $102B) appear misscaled vs actual Fox Corp figures; retained snapshot price/EPS as primary inputs. Used EPS-based earnings power framework with 10-12x PE range for media peers. 12M target ~14.6% upside supports BUY. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 60.22, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Fox News dominance supports durable high-margin cable network revenue", "Tubi's ad-supported streaming growth diversifies away from linear TV", "Sports rights portfolio strengthens affiliate and advertising pricing power", "Implied trailing PE of ~9x undervalues stable cash-generating media assets", "Cord-cutting secular headwind partially offset by digital/streaming transition" ], "target_price_6m": 64.5, "target_price_12m": 69 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 37259, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:43.500Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3142, "outputTokens": 1578, "costUsd": 0.05516 } }, { "id": "cmnr13pps03vhp658thn59t9n", "runId": "cmnr13ppq03vcp6585uxnmw03", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI_Equity_Research_v1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"FOXA\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 60.22,\n \"target_price_6m\": 61.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 62.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Stable revenue growth from core broadcasting segments.\",\n \"Cost efficiencies support maintained operating margins.\",\n \"Digital transition offers long-term growth opportunities.\",\n \"Regulatory and competitive pressures limit upside.\",\n \"Valuation appears fair with moderate total return potential.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Advertising revenue trends\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Streaming competition intensity\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Sports rights and content costs\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Political advertising cycles\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt management and leverage\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Audience fragmentation\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Technology investments in distribution\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\"Accelerating cord-cutting\", \"Regulatory changes impacting media\", \"Economic downturn reducing ad spend\", \"High valuation multiples correction\"],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.04,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.3,\n \"wacc\": 0.08,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 15.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 55.0, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Severe ad slump and rising costs pressure earnings.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 62.0, \"prob\": 0.5, \"notes\": \"Moderate growth with stable margins as per current trends.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 68.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong digital adoption and cost savings boost performance.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Used DCF with assumptions based on snapshot fundamentals; 12M expected return ~3% leads to HOLD. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI_Equity_Research_v1", "risks": [ "Accelerating cord-cutting", "Regulatory changes impacting media", "Economic downturn reducing ad spend", "High valuation multiples correction" ], "ticker": "FOXA", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate growth with stable margins as per current trends.", "target_price": 62 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Severe ad slump and rising costs pressure earnings.", "target_price": 55 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong digital adoption and cost savings boost performance.", "target_price": 68 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.08, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 15, "ebit_margin_target": 0.3 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Advertising revenue trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Streaming competition intensity", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Sports rights and content costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Political advertising cycles", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt management and leverage", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Audience fragmentation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Technology investments in distribution", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Used DCF with assumptions based on snapshot fundamentals; 12M expected return ~3% leads to HOLD. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 60.22, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stable revenue growth from core broadcasting segments.", "Cost efficiencies support maintained operating margins.", "Digital transition offers long-term growth opportunities.", "Regulatory and competitive pressures limit upside.", "Valuation appears fair with moderate total return potential." ], "target_price_6m": 61, "target_price_12m": 62 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 443, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:43.500Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 1704, "outputTokens": 3030, "costUsd": 0.00175 } }, { "id": "cmnr13pps03vfp6583w9u8dzm", "runId": "cmnr13ppq03vcp6585uxnmw03", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"Equity Valuation Model\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"FOXA\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":60.22,\"target_price_6m\":64.5,\"target_price_12m\":68.65,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.68,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Live sports and news provide a resilient moat against general entertainment streaming.\",\"Strong free cash flow generation supports consistent capital returns to shareholders.\",\"Tubi provides a high-growth engine in the ad-supported streaming market.\",\"Operating margins remain industry-leading due to lean corporate structure and focus.\",\"Valuation is attractive given the steady earnings growth and dominant market niche.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Affiliate fee growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Tubi ad revenue\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Cord-cutting rate\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Sports rights inflation\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Political ad spending\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Share buyback program\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Accelerated linear television subscriber declines.\",\"Escalating costs for premium sports broadcasting rights.\",\"Macroeconomic sensitivity of the advertising market.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.04,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.3,\"wacc\":0.085,\"terminal_multiple\":12.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":52.0,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Accelerated cord-cutting and weak ad market.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":68.65,\"prob\":0.6,\"notes\":\"Steady affiliate fees and Tubi growth.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":82.0,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Strong political spend and sports betting integration.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Valuation uses blended P/E and DCF. Note: Snapshot P/E (28.4) and Price (60.22) are inconsistent; used Price as primary anchor. BUY reflects 14% upside. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "Equity Valuation Model", "risks": [ "Accelerated linear television subscriber declines.", "Escalating costs for premium sports broadcasting rights.", "Macroeconomic sensitivity of the advertising market." ], "ticker": "FOXA", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady affiliate fees and Tubi growth.", "target_price": 68.65 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated cord-cutting and weak ad market.", "target_price": 52 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong political spend and sports betting integration.", "target_price": 82 } }, "confidence": 0.68, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 12, "ebit_margin_target": 0.3 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Affiliate fee growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Tubi ad revenue", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cord-cutting rate", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Sports rights inflation", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Political ad spending", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Share buyback program", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation uses blended P/E and DCF. Note: Snapshot P/E (28.4) and Price (60.22) are inconsistent; used Price as primary anchor. BUY reflects 14% upside. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 60.22, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Live sports and news provide a resilient moat against general entertainment streaming.", "Strong free cash flow generation supports consistent capital returns to shareholders.", "Tubi provides a high-growth engine in the ad-supported streaming market.", "Operating margins remain industry-leading due to lean corporate structure and focus.", "Valuation is attractive given the steady earnings growth and dominant market niche." ], "target_price_6m": 64.5, "target_price_12m": 68.65 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [ { "error": "not_json_object: Output must be a single JSON object (no markdown/code fences, no extra text).", "attempt": 0, "rawOutputTruncated": "{\"model\":\"Equity Valuation 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inflation\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Political ad spending\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Share buyback program\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"" }, { "error": "not_json_object: Output must be a single JSON object (no markdown/code fences, no extra text).", "attempt": 1, "rawOutputTruncated": "{\"model\":\"Equity Valuation Model\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"FOXA\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":60.22,\"target_price_6m\":64.0,\"target_price_12m\":68.5,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.65,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Live sports and news provide a resilient moat against general entertainment streaming.\",\"Strong free cash flow generation supports consistent capital returns to shareholders.\",\"Tubi provides a high-growth engine in the ad-supported streaming market.\",\"Operating margins remain industry-leading due to lean corporate structure and focus.\",\"Valuation is attractive given the steady earnings growth and dominant market niche.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Affiliate fee growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Tubi ad revenue\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Cord-cutting rate\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Sports rights inflation\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Political ad spending\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Share buyback program\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"" } ], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 24732, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:43.500Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2167, "outputTokens": 490, "costUsd": 0.010214 } }, { "id": "cmnr13pps03vdp6584pmidarq", "runId": "cmnr13ppq03vcp6585uxnmw03", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"FOXA\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":60.22,\"target_price_6m\":58,\"target_price_12m\":63,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.56,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Sports and news assets support resilient affiliate fee economics.\",\"Advertising recovery is possible but remains cyclical and uneven.\",\"Cord-cutting pressures legacy TV distribution and long-term reach.\",\"Tubi offers digital growth, but monetization scale is still developing.\",\"Valuation appears near fair value given mixed growth and structural risks.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Sports rights pricing power\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Affiliate fee stability\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Tubi ad monetization\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Election/news cycle demand\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Linear TV cord-cutting\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Advertising market softness\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Content and sports costs\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Capital returns/buybacks\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Faster linear audience erosion\",\"Sports rights inflation compresses margins\",\"Advertising recession hurts revenue mix\",\"Regulatory or political pressure on news assets\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.03,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.22,\"wacc\":0.09,\"terminal_multiple\":8.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":50,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Ad weakness and cord-cutting outweigh sports and Tubi gains.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":63,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Stable affiliate fees and modest digital growth offset linear pressure.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":73,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Stronger ad recovery, Tubi scaling, and disciplined costs expand earnings.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"12M target based on normalized earnings/FCF and media peer multiple cross-check, not consensus targets. Snapshot quote fields used exactly; snapshot fundamentals appear inconsistent with FOXA scale, so treated cautiously. Recommendation is HOLD since 12M upside is ~4.6%. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation", "risks": [ "Faster linear audience erosion", "Sports rights inflation compresses margins", "Advertising recession hurts revenue mix", "Regulatory or political pressure on news assets" ], "ticker": "FOXA", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Stable affiliate fees and modest digital growth offset linear pressure.", "target_price": 63 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Ad weakness and cord-cutting outweigh sports and Tubi gains.", "target_price": 50 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Stronger ad recovery, Tubi scaling, and disciplined costs expand earnings.", "target_price": 73 } }, "confidence": 0.56, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.03, "terminal_multiple": 8.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.22 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Sports rights pricing power", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Affiliate fee stability", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Tubi ad monetization", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Election/news cycle demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Linear TV cord-cutting", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Advertising market softness", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Content and sports costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Capital returns/buybacks", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "12M target based on normalized earnings/FCF and media peer multiple cross-check, not consensus targets. Snapshot quote fields used exactly; snapshot fundamentals appear inconsistent with FOXA scale, so treated cautiously. Recommendation is HOLD since 12M upside is ~4.6%. not investment advice", "current_price": 60.22, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Sports and news assets support resilient affiliate fee economics.", "Advertising recovery is possible but remains cyclical and uneven.", "Cord-cutting pressures legacy TV distribution and long-term reach.", "Tubi offers digital growth, but monetization scale is still developing.", "Valuation appears near fair value given mixed growth and structural risks." ], "target_price_6m": 58, "target_price_12m": 63 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0789a758f2ddea7f0069d7593008388193ac9fa2d21e4d65a9", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 18712, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:43.500Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 1983, "outputTokens": 1018, "costUsd": 0.017722 } }, { "id": "cmnr13pps03vgp658hfdqrdlx", "runId": "cmnr13ppq03vcp6585uxnmw03", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"FOXA\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 60.22,\n \"target_price_6m\": 65,\n \"target_price_12m\": 72,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"News and sports assets deliver stable affiliate revenue.\",\n \"High margins generate strong free cash flow conversion.\",\n \"Digital expansion offsets linear TV subscriber losses.\",\n \"Current valuation attractive versus historical averages.\",\n \"EPS growth supported by content monetization strategy.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Cable news dominance\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Sports rights value\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Affiliate fee growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Advertising cyclicality\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Cord-cutting acceleration\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Content cost inflation\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Streaming platform scale\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory scrutiny\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Accelerated linear TV decline\",\n \"Weak advertising demand\",\n \"Rising programming costs\",\n \"Regulatory and legal risks\",\n \"Competition in streaming\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.04,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.32,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 14\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 50,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Faster cord-cutting and ad weakness pressure earnings.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 72,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Stable core growth and margin execution drive value.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 88,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Strong digital pivot and ad recovery exceed expectations.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF using 4% revenue CAGR, 32% EBIT margin, 9% WACC and 14x terminal. 12M base scenario supports BUY per rubric. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Accelerated linear TV decline", "Weak advertising demand", "Rising programming costs", "Regulatory and legal risks", "Competition in streaming" ], "ticker": "FOXA", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Stable core growth and margin execution drive value.", "target_price": 72 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Faster cord-cutting and ad weakness pressure earnings.", "target_price": 50 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong digital pivot and ad recovery exceed expectations.", "target_price": 88 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 14, "ebit_margin_target": 0.32 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Cable news dominance", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Sports rights value", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Affiliate fee growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Advertising cyclicality", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cord-cutting acceleration", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Content cost inflation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Streaming platform scale", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory scrutiny", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF using 4% revenue CAGR, 32% EBIT margin, 9% WACC and 14x terminal. 12M base scenario supports BUY per rubric. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 60.22, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "News and sports assets deliver stable affiliate revenue.", "High margins generate strong free cash flow conversion.", "Digital expansion offsets linear TV subscriber losses.", "Current valuation attractive versus historical averages.", "EPS growth supported by content monetization strategy." ], "target_price_6m": 65, "target_price_12m": 72 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "49bfb967-d303-988b-8008-4cb88ac3dab4", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 16930, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:43.500Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2326, "outputTokens": 2900, "costUsd": 0.050478 } } ] } }