{ "run": { "id": "cmnr13ppl03v5p658sirkj3ze", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr13po503uup658zw1w2rq6", "ticker": "FOX", "snapshotId": "cmnr13pon03v1p658mbpcmosp", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:43.494Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr13pon03v1p658mbpcmosp", "assetId": "cmnr13po503uup658zw1w2rq6", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "open": null, "price": 54.48, "dayLow": 53.72, "volume": 987605, "dayHigh": 54.53, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 53.75, "week52Low": 43.326, "week52High": 68.175 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 10.3883299798793, "beta": 0.736425479632684, "epsTTM": 4.97, "fcfTTM": 2930000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.5828025477707005, "revenueYoy": -0.6820858895705522 }, "sector": "Television Broadcasting Stations", "margins": { "net": 0.04766499421072945, "gross": null, "operating": null }, "website": "https://www.foxcorporation.com/", "industry": "Media", "pegRatio": 0.178247847742191, "ebitdaTTM": 3596000000, "forwardPe": 11.5762331838565, "marketCap": 0, "totalCash": 5351000000, "totalDebt": 6602000000, "debtEquity": 0.551914395586022, "quickRatio": 2.700379703141181, "revenueTTM": 5182000000, "companyName": "Fox Corp", "priceToBook": 1.17353634006651, "currentRatio": 2.909561615464273, "dividendYield": 0.0103272648820468, "returnOnAssets": 0.01064884673420996, "returnOnEquity": 0.191690352783815, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Fox Corporation, commonly known as Fox Corp or Fox, is an American multinational mass media company headquartered at 1211 Avenue of the Americas in Midtown Manhattan with offices also in Burbank, California. Named after William Fox and incorporated in Delaware, it was formed as a spin-off of 21st Century Fox's television broadcasting, news, and sports assets on March 19, 2019. 21CF went defunct the next day. The company is controlled by Lachlan Murdoch through a family trust with 36% voting shares. Rupert Murdoch is chairman emeritus, while his son Lachlan Murdoch is chairman and CEO.", "enterpriseValue": 25071440630.67, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 10400, "sharesOutstanding": 1, "enterpriseToEbitda": 6.972035770486651, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 4.838178431236974, "operatingCashflowTTM": -799000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:43.463Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr13ppn03v7p658kymilkqy", "runId": "cmnr13ppl03v5p658sirkj3ze", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Equity Research Model v1.0\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"FOX\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":54.48,\"target_price_6m\":57.5,\"target_price_12m\":60.0,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.6,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Attractive valuation at ~10.4x trailing P/E vs media peers.\",\"Strong EPS growth of +58% YoY signals improving profitability.\",\"Robust FCF generation of $2.93B supports shareholder returns.\",\"EV/EBITDA of ~7x represents discount to diversified media sector.\",\"Revenue decline likely reflects asset restructuring, not organic weakness.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Sports broadcasting rights driving ad revenue resilience\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Fox News dominant cable news ratings sustaining pricing power\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Low P/E and PEG ratio suggesting undervaluation\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Strong FCF enabling buybacks and debt reduction\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Secular cord-cutting eroding traditional TV distribution\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Massive revenue YoY decline (-68%) raising structural questions\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Political cycle tailwinds for news ratings may be fading\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Competitive streaming landscape pressuring legacy media multiples\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Accelerating cord-cutting reduces affiliate fee and advertising revenue.\",\"Sports rights cost inflation compresses margins over time.\",\"Regulatory or political risks affecting Fox News brand and viewership.\",\"Revenue decline may reflect structural shrinkage rather than one-time events.\",\"Negative operating cash flow ($-799M TTM) raises cash generation sustainability questions.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.02,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.18,\"wacc\":0.09,\"terminal_multiple\":10.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":44.0,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Continued revenue erosion and multiple compression to 8-9x P/E.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":60.0,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Stable EPS ~$5.20-$5.50 with modest multiple expansion to ~11x.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":68.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"EPS growth to $5.50+ and re-rating toward 12x on sports/news strength.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Earnings-power valuation anchored on trailing P/E of 10.4x with modest expansion to 11x on ~$5.40 forward EPS. Revenue TTM decline of -68% likely reflects asset sales/restructuring; sharesOutstanding=1 and marketCap=0 are snapshot data anomalies. EV/EBITDA of ~7x supports discount thesis vs media peers at 8-10x. Negative operating CF vs large positive FCF is a data inconsistency flagged but not overridden. Sell-side targets not used as inputs. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model v1.0", "risks": [ "Accelerating cord-cutting reduces affiliate fee and advertising revenue.", "Sports rights cost inflation compresses margins over time.", "Regulatory or political risks affecting Fox News brand and viewership.", "Revenue decline may reflect structural shrinkage rather than one-time events.", "Negative operating cash flow ($-799M TTM) raises cash generation sustainability questions." ], "ticker": "FOX", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Stable EPS ~$5.20-$5.50 with modest multiple expansion to ~11x.", "target_price": 60 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Continued revenue erosion and multiple compression to 8-9x P/E.", "target_price": 44 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "EPS growth to $5.50+ and re-rating toward 12x on sports/news strength.", "target_price": 68 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.02, "terminal_multiple": 10.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.18 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Sports broadcasting rights driving ad revenue resilience", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fox News dominant cable news ratings sustaining pricing power", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Low P/E and PEG ratio suggesting undervaluation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Strong FCF enabling buybacks and debt reduction", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Secular cord-cutting eroding traditional TV distribution", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Massive revenue YoY decline (-68%) raising structural questions", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Political cycle tailwinds for news ratings may be fading", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competitive streaming landscape pressuring legacy media multiples", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Earnings-power valuation anchored on trailing P/E of 10.4x with modest expansion to 11x on ~$5.40 forward EPS. Revenue TTM decline of -68% likely reflects asset sales/restructuring; sharesOutstanding=1 and marketCap=0 are snapshot data anomalies. EV/EBITDA of ~7x supports discount thesis vs media peers at 8-10x. Negative operating CF vs large positive FCF is a data inconsistency flagged but not overridden. Sell-side targets not used as inputs. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 54.48, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Attractive valuation at ~10.4x trailing P/E vs media peers.", "Strong EPS growth of +58% YoY signals improving profitability.", "Robust FCF generation of $2.93B supports shareholder returns.", "EV/EBITDA of ~7x represents discount to diversified media sector.", "Revenue decline likely reflects asset restructuring, not organic weakness." ], "target_price_6m": 57.5, "target_price_12m": 60 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 34849, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:43.494Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3639, "outputTokens": 1706, "costUsd": 0.060845 } }, { "id": "cmnr13ppn03vap658v5kq9k5r", "runId": "cmnr13ppl03v5p658sirkj3ze", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"FOX\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 54.48,\n \"target_price_6m\": 57.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 62.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"EPS growth outpacing revenue due to efficiency gains.\",\n \"Low valuation multiples suggest undervaluation.\",\n \"Strong sports and news franchises provide stable cash flows.\",\n \"Industry headwinds from digital disruption are a key risk.\",\n \"Conservative assumptions support a BUY recommendation.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\"driver\": \"Sports rights costs\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Advertising revenue trends\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Cost cutting measures\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Regulatory changes\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Election cycle news boost\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Debt management\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Competition from streaming\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Dividend policy\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\"}\n ],\n \"risks\": [\"Decline in traditional TV viewership\", \"Rising content acquisition costs\", \"Economic sensitivity of advertising\", \"Regulatory and political risks\"],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.02,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.15,\n \"wacc\": 0.075,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 7.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\"target_price\": 50.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Ad revenue drops sharply and costs rise.\"},\n \"base\": {\"target_price\": 62.0, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Steady performance with modest growth.\"},\n \"bull\": {\"target_price\": 70.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong sports ratings and cost savings.\"}\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Targets based on forward P/E of 12x and 5% EPS growth; not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Decline in traditional TV viewership", "Rising content acquisition costs", "Economic sensitivity of advertising", "Regulatory and political risks" ], "ticker": "FOX", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady performance with modest growth.", "target_price": 62 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Ad revenue drops sharply and costs rise.", "target_price": 50 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong sports ratings and cost savings.", "target_price": 70 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.075, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.02, "terminal_multiple": 7, "ebit_margin_target": 0.15 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Sports rights costs", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Advertising revenue trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Cost cutting measures", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory changes", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Election cycle news boost", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt management", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competition from streaming", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend policy", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Targets based on forward P/E of 12x and 5% EPS growth; not investment advice.", "current_price": 54.48, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "EPS growth outpacing revenue due to efficiency gains.", "Low valuation multiples suggest undervaluation.", "Strong sports and news franchises provide stable cash flows.", "Industry headwinds from digital disruption are a key risk.", "Conservative assumptions support a BUY recommendation." ], "target_price_6m": 57, "target_price_12m": 62 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 331, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:43.494Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2147, "outputTokens": 3670, "costUsd": 0.002143 } }, { "id": "cmnr13ppn03v8p6584lrdqs92", "runId": "cmnr13ppl03v5p658sirkj3ze", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Equity Research Analyst AI\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"FOX\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 54.48,\n \"target_price_6m\": 58.50,\n \"target_price_12m\": 62.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.72,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Dominant live sports and news portfolio provides resilient affiliate fee revenue streams.\",\n \"Significant tailwinds expected from the 2026 mid-term election political advertising cycle.\",\n \"Tubi continues to gain market share in the high-growth AVOD streaming segment.\",\n \"Strong balance sheet and cash flow support consistent and aggressive share repurchases.\",\n \"Valuation remains attractive at ~11x forward earnings despite linear television industry headwinds.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Political Ad Spend\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Cord-cutting Rates\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Sports Rights Costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Tubi Revenue Growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Affiliate Fee Pricing\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Share Repurchase Volume\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Faster than expected decline in linear pay-TV subscribers.\",\n \"Intense competition for premium sports rights driving up operating expenses.\",\n \"Potential legal or regulatory challenges related to news broadcasting content.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.025,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.22,\n \"wacc\": 0.095,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 8.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 45.00,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated subscriber losses and sports cost inflation.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 62.00,\n \"prob\": 0.6,\n \"notes\": \"Resilient affiliate fees and strong political ad revenue.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 74.00,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Tubi reaches significant profitability and buybacks accelerate.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation uses a blend of 12x forward P/E and 7.5x EV/EBITDA. Target reflects ~14% upside driven by 2026 political cycle and Tubi scaling. Snapshot revenue growth anomaly noted; likely due to Super Bowl timing. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "Equity Research Analyst AI", "risks": [ "Faster than expected decline in linear pay-TV subscribers.", "Intense competition for premium sports rights driving up operating expenses.", "Potential legal or regulatory challenges related to news broadcasting content." ], "ticker": "FOX", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Resilient affiliate fees and strong political ad revenue.", "target_price": 62 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated subscriber losses and sports cost inflation.", "target_price": 45 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Tubi reaches significant profitability and buybacks accelerate.", "target_price": 74 } }, "confidence": 0.72, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.025, "terminal_multiple": 8.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.22 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Political Ad Spend", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cord-cutting Rates", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Sports Rights Costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Tubi Revenue Growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Affiliate Fee Pricing", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Share Repurchase Volume", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation uses a blend of 12x forward P/E and 7.5x EV/EBITDA. Target reflects ~14% upside driven by 2026 political cycle and Tubi scaling. Snapshot revenue growth anomaly noted; likely due to Super Bowl timing. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 54.48, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Dominant live sports and news portfolio provides resilient affiliate fee revenue streams.", "Significant tailwinds expected from the 2026 mid-term election political advertising cycle.", "Tubi continues to gain market share in the high-growth AVOD streaming segment.", "Strong balance sheet and cash flow support consistent and aggressive share repurchases.", "Valuation remains attractive at ~11x forward earnings despite linear television industry headwinds." ], "target_price_6m": 58.5, "target_price_12m": 62 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 24723, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:43.494Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2472, "outputTokens": 796, "costUsd": 0.014496 } }, { "id": "cmnr13ppn03v6p658ski19lfo", "runId": "cmnr13ppl03v5p658sirkj3ze", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"OpenAI o3\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"FOX\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":54.48,\"target_price_6m\":56.2,\"target_price_12m\":57.5,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.61,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Affiliate fee resilience and live sports support near-term EBITDA stability.\",\"News and sports portfolio remains valuable in a fragmented TV market.\",\"Low earnings multiple reflects secular linear-TV decline and cyclical advertising risk.\",\"Strong cash and free cash flow support buybacks and modest dividends.\",\"Fair-value upside looks limited without ad recovery or bigger digital monetization gains.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Affiliate fee renewals\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Linear audience erosion\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Sports rights inflation\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Political ad cycle\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Retransmission fee growth\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"General ad market recovery\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Tubi monetization progress\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Capital returns discipline\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Faster cord-cutting pressures affiliate and ad revenue.\",\"Sports rights renewals could compress margins.\",\"Advertising downturn weakens news and sports demand.\",\"Regulatory or litigation actions could raise costs.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.025,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.22,\"wacc\":0.09,\"terminal_multiple\":7.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":46,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Ad softness and faster cord-cutting compress EBITDA and multiples.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":57.5,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Stable affiliate fees and capital returns offset secular linear-TV pressure.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":66,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Political ads, sports strength, and better streaming monetization lift earnings.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended earnings and EV/EBITDA valuation using snapshot quote/EV as anchors; snapshot revenue, growth, and share fields appear inconsistent, so normalized assumptions were used. No sell-side targets used. Base case implies modest ~5.5% 12M upside, so HOLD fits mixed evidence; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "OpenAI o3", "risks": [ "Faster cord-cutting pressures affiliate and ad revenue.", "Sports rights renewals could compress margins.", "Advertising downturn weakens news and sports demand.", "Regulatory or litigation actions could raise costs." ], "ticker": "FOX", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Stable affiliate fees and capital returns offset secular linear-TV pressure.", "target_price": 57.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Ad softness and faster cord-cutting compress EBITDA and multiples.", "target_price": 46 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Political ads, sports strength, and better streaming monetization lift earnings.", "target_price": 66 } }, "confidence": 0.61, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.025, "terminal_multiple": 7.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.22 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Affiliate fee renewals", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Linear audience erosion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Sports rights inflation", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Political ad cycle", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Retransmission fee growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "General ad market recovery", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Tubi monetization progress", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Capital returns discipline", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Blended earnings and EV/EBITDA valuation using snapshot quote/EV as anchors; snapshot revenue, growth, and share fields appear inconsistent, so normalized assumptions were used. No sell-side targets used. 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"latencyMs": 39402, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:43.494Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2415, "outputTokens": 2385, "costUsd": 0.037616 } }, { "id": "cmnr13ppn03v9p658fcavnuwe", "runId": "cmnr13ppl03v5p658sirkj3ze", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"DCF Valuation\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"FOX\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 54.48,\n \"target_price_6m\": 57.8,\n \"target_price_12m\": 62.4,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Low 10.4x P/E offers attractive entry point.\",\n \"Fox News provides stable high-margin cash flow.\",\n \"Sports rights deliver multi-year revenue visibility.\",\n \"Cord cutting pressures linear TV ad revenue.\",\n \"Strong FCF supports dividends and buybacks.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Fox News profitability\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Sports rights costs\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Cord-cutting trend\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Advertising cyclical recovery\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Share repurchases\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory scrutiny\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Digital revenue growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Balance sheet flexibility\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Accelerated cord-cutting\",\n \"Weak ad market\",\n \"Rising sports rights costs\",\n \"Regulatory changes\",\n \"Competition from streamers\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.02,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.28,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 8.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 46.2,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Faster cord cutting and ad weakness.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 62.4,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Stable news/sports with modest digital growth.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 74.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Strong ad recovery and successful streaming pivot.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF using 2% rev CAGR, 28% EBIT margin, 8.5% WACC and 8.5x terminal EV/EBITDA. 15% base upside supports BUY despite mixed trends. not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "DCF Valuation", "risks": [ "Accelerated cord-cutting", "Weak ad market", "Rising sports rights costs", "Regulatory changes", "Competition from streamers" ], "ticker": "FOX", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Stable news/sports with modest digital growth.", "target_price": 62.4 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Faster cord cutting and ad weakness.", 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