{ "run": { "id": "cmnr13lqq03p7p6583prgb8y1", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr13llw03orp658aqp0n3az", "ticker": "EXPE", "snapshotId": "cmnr13ln603ovp658laxysbhg", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:38.352Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr13ln603ovp658laxysbhg", "assetId": "cmnr13llw03orp658aqp0n3az", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "open": null, "price": 236.9, "dayLow": 236.408, "volume": 1949803, "dayHigh": 249.74, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 224.3, "week52Low": 134.25, "week52High": 303.8 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 27.452519379845, "beta": 1.3853880187546, "epsTTM": 10.32, "fcfTTM": 2959000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.09904153354632585, "revenueYoy": 0.07610839237455262 }, "sector": "Transportation Services", "margins": { "net": 0.08783004140365167, "gross": null, "operating": 0.1269938233896694 }, "website": "https://www.expediacruises.com", "industry": "Travel industry", "pegRatio": 2.77181889222305, "ebitdaTTM": 2698000000, "forwardPe": 17.4130301167793, "marketCap": 19967985000, "totalCash": 5413000000, "totalDebt": 7853000000, "debtEquity": 6.11604361370717, "quickRatio": 0.5942846851173681, "revenueTTM": 14733000000, "companyName": "Expedia Group, Inc.", "priceToBook": 4.55632989480436, "currentRatio": 0.7323647715675091, "dividendYield": 0.00563117099316991, "returnOnAssets": 0.05292000654343203, "returnOnEquity": 1.00778816199377, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Expedia Group, Inc. is an American travel technology company that owns and operates travel fare aggregators and travel metasearch engines, including Expedia, Hotels.com, Vrbo, Travelocity, Hotwire.com, Orbitz, Ebookers, CheapTickets, CarRentals.com, Expedia Cruises, Wotif, and Trivago. Over 3.5 million lodging facilities and flights on over 500 airlines are bookable on the company's websites. It has 16,500 employees, and its headquarters are located in Seattle, Washington.", "enterpriseValue": 37956591530, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 16500, "sharesOutstanding": null, "enterpriseToEbitda": 14.06841791326909, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 2.576297531392113, "operatingCashflowTTM": 3880000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:38.227Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr13lqt03p9p658pwvhhado", "runId": "cmnr13lqq03p7p6583prgb8y1", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"EXPE\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":236.9,\"target_price_6m\":255,\"target_price_12m\":270,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.6,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Strong FCF generation (~$3B TTM) supports buybacks and deleveraging\",\"Forward PE of ~17.4x is attractive relative to travel tech peers\",\"Revenue growing ~7.6% YoY with margin expansion potential ahead\",\"High leverage (D/E 6.1x) constrains financial flexibility and adds risk\",\"Vrbo and B2B segments provide diversified growth vectors\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Global travel demand resilience\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating margin expansion toward 14-15%\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Share repurchases from strong FCF\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"B2B and Vrbo segment growth acceleration\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"High debt load limiting strategic optionality\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Intensifying competition from Booking and Airbnb\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Macro/consumer spending slowdown risk\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Technology and AI investment driving efficiency gains\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Macroeconomic downturn reducing discretionary travel spending\",\"Elevated leverage amplifies downside in a recession scenario\",\"Competitive pricing pressure from Booking Holdings and Airbnb\",\"Foreign currency headwinds given global revenue mix\",\"Regulatory changes affecting online travel aggregation or data privacy\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.065,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.145,\"wacc\":0.10,\"terminal_multiple\":14.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":195,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Macro slowdown compresses multiples to ~14x forward EPS of ~$13, elevated debt weighs.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":270,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Steady travel demand, margin expansion to ~14%, 18x forward EPS of ~$15.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":320,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Accelerating bookings, margin upside to 15%+, multiple re-rates to ~20x forward EPS.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Forward PE-based valuation anchored on TTM EPS of $10.32 growing ~10-12% annually. Applied 17-18x fair PE for travel tech with mid-single-digit top-line growth and improving margins. Cross-checked with EV/EBITDA (~14x) and FCF yield (~15%). High leverage and macro sensitivity cap confidence. Sell-side targets noted but not used as numeric inputs. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Macroeconomic downturn reducing discretionary travel spending", "Elevated leverage amplifies downside in a recession scenario", "Competitive pricing pressure from Booking Holdings and Airbnb", "Foreign currency headwinds given global revenue mix", "Regulatory changes affecting online travel aggregation or data privacy" ], "ticker": "EXPE", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady travel demand, margin expansion to ~14%, 18x forward EPS of ~$15.", "target_price": 270 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Macro slowdown compresses multiples to ~14x forward EPS of ~$13, elevated debt weighs.", "target_price": 195 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Accelerating bookings, margin upside to 15%+, multiple re-rates to ~20x forward EPS.", "target_price": 320 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.1, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.065, "terminal_multiple": 14, "ebit_margin_target": 0.145 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Global travel demand resilience", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating margin expansion toward 14-15%", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Share repurchases from strong FCF", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "B2B and Vrbo segment growth acceleration", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "High debt load limiting strategic optionality", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Intensifying competition from Booking and Airbnb", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Macro/consumer spending slowdown risk", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Technology and AI investment driving efficiency gains", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Forward PE-based valuation anchored on TTM EPS of $10.32 growing ~10-12% annually. Applied 17-18x fair PE for travel tech with mid-single-digit top-line growth and improving margins. Cross-checked with EV/EBITDA (~14x) and FCF yield (~15%). High leverage and macro sensitivity cap confidence. Sell-side targets noted but not used as numeric inputs. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 236.9, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong FCF generation (~$3B TTM) supports buybacks and deleveraging", "Forward PE of ~17.4x is attractive relative to travel tech peers", "Revenue growing ~7.6% YoY with margin expansion potential ahead", "High leverage (D/E 6.1x) constrains financial flexibility and adds risk", "Vrbo and B2B segments provide diversified growth vectors" ], "target_price_6m": 255, "target_price_12m": 270 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 41392, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:38.352Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3647, "outputTokens": 1902, "costUsd": 0.065785 } }, { "id": "cmnr13lqt03pcp658m4him5sm", "runId": "cmnr13lqq03p7p6583prgb8y1", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearchModel\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"EXPE\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 236.9,\n \"target_price_6m\": 250,\n \"target_price_12m\": 260,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Travel demand supports steady revenue growth.\",\n \"Margin improvement from operational efficiencies.\",\n \"High debt levels increase financial risk.\",\n \"Fierce competition in online travel market.\",\n \"Innovation in tech drives customer engagement.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Industry travel recovery\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt and liquidity concerns\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Technological innovation\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Macroeconomic volatility\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory environment\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Consumer spending on travel\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competitive intensity\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Brand and market position\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Economic downturn reducing travel\",\n \"Margin pressure from competition\",\n \"Financial strain due to high leverage\",\n \"Regulatory changes affecting operations\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.07,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.13,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 12\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 220, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Severe travel slump and high costs.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 260, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Moderate growth with stable margins.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 300, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong recovery and efficiency gains.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation using revenue growth and EV/EBITDA multiples; BUY with 10% upside. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "EquityResearchModel", "risks": [ "Economic downturn reducing travel", "Margin pressure from competition", "Financial strain due to high leverage", "Regulatory changes affecting operations" ], "ticker": "EXPE", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Moderate growth with stable margins.", "target_price": 260 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Severe travel slump and high costs.", "target_price": 220 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong recovery and efficiency gains.", "target_price": 300 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.07, "terminal_multiple": 12, "ebit_margin_target": 0.13 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Industry travel recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt and liquidity concerns", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Technological innovation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macroeconomic volatility", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory environment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Consumer spending on travel", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive intensity", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Brand and market position", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation using revenue growth and EV/EBITDA multiples; BUY with 10% upside. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 236.9, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Travel demand supports steady revenue growth.", "Margin improvement from operational efficiencies.", "High debt levels increase financial risk.", "Fierce competition in online travel market.", "Innovation in tech drives customer engagement." ], "target_price_6m": 250, "target_price_12m": 260 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 363, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:38.352Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2146, "outputTokens": 4518, "costUsd": 0.002498 } }, { "id": "cmnr13lqt03pap658ibpf12ru", "runId": "cmnr13lqq03p7p6583prgb8y1", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearch_EXPE_v1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"EXPE\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 236.9,\n \"target_price_6m\": 250.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 265.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.7,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong free cash flow generation supports aggressive share repurchases and ongoing debt reduction.\",\n \"B2B segment growth provides a durable, high-margin revenue stream offsetting B2C volatility.\",\n \"Forward P/E of 17.4x is undemanding relative to historical averages and peer multiples.\",\n \"High debt-to-equity ratio presents a risk if interest rates remain elevated or demand slows.\",\n \"Vrbo faces intense competition from Airbnb, requiring sustained marketing spend to maintain share.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Global leisure travel demand\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"B2B partnership expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Marketing efficiency and ROAS\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Macroeconomic consumer pressure\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Competition from Booking and Airbnb\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Share repurchase execution\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Consumer spending downturn impacting discretionary leisure travel budgets.\",\n \"Intense competition in the alternative accommodation space pressuring Vrbo margins.\",\n \"Search engine algorithm changes increasing direct customer acquisition costs.\",\n \"High leverage limits strategic flexibility during a severe economic downturn.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.075,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.14,\n \"wacc\": 0.095,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 12.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 180.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Macro slowdown hits travel demand; margins compress due to higher marketing costs.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 265.0,\n \"prob\": 0.6,\n \"notes\": \"Steady travel demand, moderate margin expansion, and continued EPS accretion from buybacks.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 300.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated B2B growth and Vrbo market share gains drive multiple expansion.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a blend of 18x NTM P/E and a 10-year DCF (9.5% WACC, 12x terminal EV/EBITDA). Strong FCF yield (~7.8% EV/FCF) supports a BUY rating with ~12% upside. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch_EXPE_v1", "risks": [ "Consumer spending downturn impacting discretionary leisure travel budgets.", "Intense competition in the alternative accommodation space pressuring Vrbo margins.", "Search engine algorithm changes increasing direct customer acquisition costs.", "High leverage limits strategic flexibility during a severe economic downturn." ], "ticker": "EXPE", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady travel demand, moderate margin expansion, and continued EPS accretion from buybacks.", "target_price": 265 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Macro slowdown hits travel demand; margins compress due to higher marketing costs.", "target_price": 180 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated B2B growth and Vrbo market share gains drive multiple expansion.", "target_price": 300 } }, "confidence": 0.7, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.075, "terminal_multiple": 12, "ebit_margin_target": 0.14 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Global leisure travel demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "B2B partnership expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Marketing efficiency and ROAS", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macroeconomic consumer pressure", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competition from Booking and Airbnb", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Share repurchase execution", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a blend of 18x NTM P/E and a 10-year DCF (9.5% WACC, 12x terminal EV/EBITDA). Strong FCF yield (~7.8% EV/FCF) supports a BUY rating with ~12% upside. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 236.9, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong free cash flow generation supports aggressive share repurchases and ongoing debt reduction.", "B2B segment growth provides a durable, high-margin revenue stream offsetting B2C volatility.", "Forward P/E of 17.4x is undemanding relative to historical averages and peer multiples.", "High debt-to-equity ratio presents a risk if interest rates remain elevated or demand slows.", "Vrbo faces intense competition from Airbnb, requiring sustained marketing spend to maintain share." ], "target_price_6m": 250, "target_price_12m": 265 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 21996, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:38.352Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2494, "outputTokens": 888, "costUsd": 0.015644 } }, { "id": "cmnr13lqt03p8p658w6pin0ik", "runId": "cmnr13lqq03p7p6583prgb8y1", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"EXPE\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":236.9,\"target_price_6m\":242,\"target_price_12m\":248,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.63,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"B2B and loyalty growth offset slower core OTA traffic.\",\"Vrbo recovery remains uncertain against Airbnb and hotel demand mix.\",\"Forward P/E looks reasonable, but margin upside is partly priced.\",\"Strong cash generation supports buybacks and debt management.\",\"Travel demand is healthy yet remains cyclical and macro-sensitive.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"B2B bookings growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Loyalty ecosystem adoption\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Vrbo share stabilization\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Booking/Airbnb competition\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Marketing efficiency\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Margin expansion execution\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Consumer travel demand\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Macro and FX sensitivity\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Consumer travel pullback\",\"Vrbo underperforms Airbnb\",\"Higher traffic acquisition costs\",\"Supplier bargaining pressure\",\"Leverage limits flexibility\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":7.5,\"ebit_margin_target\":15,\"wacc\":9.5,\"terminal_multiple\":17.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":195,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Travel softens and Vrbo lags, limiting margin gains.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":248,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Mid-single-digit growth and modest margin expansion support fair value.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":305,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Vrbo improves, B2B accelerates, and execution drives stronger rerating.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Targets use a blended forward earnings/margin framework anchored to snapshot fundamentals, not sell-side targets. HOLD fits ~4.7% 12M upside with mixed competitive and cyclical signals. Snapshot quote fields were used as authoritative. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation", "risks": [ "Consumer travel pullback", "Vrbo underperforms Airbnb", "Higher traffic acquisition costs", "Supplier bargaining pressure", "Leverage limits flexibility" ], "ticker": "EXPE", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Mid-single-digit growth and modest margin expansion support fair value.", "target_price": 248 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Travel softens and Vrbo lags, limiting margin gains.", "target_price": 195 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Vrbo improves, B2B accelerates, and execution drives stronger rerating.", "target_price": 305 } }, "confidence": 0.63, "assumptions": { "wacc": 9.5, "revenue_cagr_3y": 7.5, "terminal_multiple": 17.5, "ebit_margin_target": 15 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "B2B bookings growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Loyalty ecosystem adoption", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Vrbo share stabilization", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Booking/Airbnb competition", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Marketing efficiency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Margin expansion execution", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Consumer travel demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macro and FX sensitivity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Targets use a blended forward earnings/margin framework anchored to snapshot fundamentals, not sell-side targets. HOLD fits ~4.7% 12M upside with mixed competitive and cyclical signals. Snapshot quote fields were used as authoritative. not investment advice", "current_price": 236.9, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "B2B and loyalty growth offset slower core OTA traffic.", "Vrbo recovery remains uncertain against Airbnb and hotel demand mix.", "Forward P/E looks reasonable, but margin upside is partly priced.", "Strong cash generation supports buybacks and debt management.", "Travel demand is healthy yet remains cyclical and macro-sensitive." ], "target_price_6m": 242, "target_price_12m": 248 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0209c400139f2a3d0069d758e655548193b1cc35bf93b09a03", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 35348, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:38.352Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2408, "outputTokens": 1889, "costUsd": 0.03066 } }, { "id": "cmnr13lqt03pbp658xi3l1iyd", "runId": "cmnr13lqq03p7p6583prgb8y1", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI DCF Valuation Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"EXPE\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 236.9,\n \"target_price_6m\": 255,\n \"target_price_12m\": 275,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Leading OTA with diversified brand portfolio\",\n \"Travel demand recovery driving revenue growth\",\n \"Operating leverage to expand EBIT margins\",\n \"Strong FCF supports debt reduction and buybacks\",\n \"Forward valuation attractive vs growth outlook\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Leisure travel recovery\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Margin expansion via efficiency\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"International market expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Economic downturn risk\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Intense industry competition\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Technological innovation in booking\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"High debt levels\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory and tax changes\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged recession reducing discretionary travel\",\n \"Increased competition from airlines and hotels\",\n \"Adverse foreign exchange movements\",\n \"Cybersecurity breaches impacting customer trust\",\n \"Changes in consumer preferences to direct booking\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.085,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.14,\n \"wacc\": 0.095,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 16\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 190,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Severe recession hits travel sector hard.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 275,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Moderate growth and margin improvement.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 340,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Strong demand and market share gains.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF model using 8.5% revenue CAGR, 14% EBIT margin target, 9.5% WACC and 16x terminal EV/EBITDA. Balanced bull/bear drivers support BUY with ~16% 12M upside. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI DCF Valuation Model", "risks": [ "Prolonged recession reducing discretionary travel", "Increased competition from airlines and hotels", "Adverse foreign exchange movements", "Cybersecurity breaches impacting customer trust", "Changes in consumer preferences to direct booking" ], "ticker": "EXPE", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate growth and margin improvement.", "target_price": 275 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Severe recession hits travel sector hard.", "target_price": 190 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong demand and market share gains.", "target_price": 340 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.085, "terminal_multiple": 16, "ebit_margin_target": 0.14 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Leisure travel recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Margin expansion via efficiency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "International market expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Economic downturn risk", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Intense industry competition", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Technological innovation in booking", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "High debt levels", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory and tax changes", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF model using 8.5% revenue CAGR, 14% EBIT margin target, 9.5% WACC and 16x terminal EV/EBITDA. Balanced bull/bear drivers support BUY with ~16% 12M upside. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 236.9, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Leading OTA with diversified brand portfolio", "Travel demand recovery driving revenue growth", "Operating leverage to expand EBIT margins", "Strong FCF supports debt reduction and buybacks", "Forward valuation attractive vs growth outlook" ], "target_price_6m": 255, "target_price_12m": 275 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "ca9b9f19-f3e7-9ad7-83c4-8c631c05fbec", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 16247, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:38.352Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2753, "outputTokens": 3256, "costUsd": 0.057099 } } ] } }