{ "run": { "id": "cmnr13l7s03o2p6581aizwhrn", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr13l7603nyp6587mfsao38", "ticker": "EXC", "snapshotId": "cmnr13l7e03o0p658ozchsnw7", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:37.670Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr13l7e03o0p658ozchsnw7", "assetId": "cmnr13l7603nyp6587mfsao38", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "open": null, "price": 49.17, "dayLow": 48.39, "volume": 5899681, "dayHigh": 49.25, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 49.05, "week52Low": 41.71, "week52High": 50.65 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 15.9087591240876, "beta": 0.366220374310621, "epsTTM": 2.74, "fcfTTM": -3525000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.1183673469387755, "revenueYoy": 0.05341323606044815 }, "sector": "Electric & Other Services Combined", "margins": { "net": 0.1141066864539533, "gross": null, "operating": 0.2122186495176849 }, "website": "https://www.exeloncorp.com/", "industry": "Public utility", "pegRatio": 1.34401585703499, "ebitdaTTM": 8525000000, "forwardPe": 15.4028268551237, "marketCap": 43835664870, "totalCash": 626000000, "totalDebt": 50040000000, "debtEquity": 1.73762066810195, "quickRatio": 0.3797309069789953, "revenueTTM": 24258000000, "companyName": "EXELON CORP", "priceToBook": 1.53029689561775, "currentRatio": 0.9240151001839125, "dividendYield": 0.0366920515758181, "returnOnAssets": 0.02374538903663035, "returnOnEquity": 0.0961177859573581, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Exelon Corporation is an American public utility headquartered in Chicago, and incorporated in Pennsylvania. Exelon is the largest electric parent company in the United States by revenue and is the largest regulated electric utility in the United States with approximately 10 million customers. The company is ranked 187th on the Fortune 500.", "enterpriseValue": 93483490000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 20014, "sharesOutstanding": 1022892585, "enterpriseToEbitda": 10.96580527859238, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 3.853717948717949, "operatingCashflowTTM": 6254000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:37.658Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr13l7v03o4p658c3spkkfr", "runId": "cmnr13l7s03o2p6581aizwhrn", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"EXC\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":49.17,\"target_price_6m\":51.0,\"target_price_12m\":53.0,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.63,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Largest US regulated utility with ~10M customers provides earnings visibility\",\"Rate base growth driven by grid modernization and electrification capex\",\"Data center demand creates incremental load growth tailwind\",\"Dividend yield ~3.7% offers attractive income alongside moderate price upside\",\"Trading near 52-week high limits near-term entry margin of safety\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Rate base growth from T&D grid investment program\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Constructive regulatory outcomes across six utilities\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Data center and electrification load growth\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"EPS CAGR guidance of 5-7% through rate base expansion\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"High leverage (D/E 1.74x) limits financial flexibility\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Negative FCF (-$3.5B) from heavy capex program\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest rate environment affecting utility cost of capital\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Low beta (0.37) provides defensive positioning\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Unfavorable rate case outcomes could compress allowed returns and earnings growth\",\"Rising interest rates increase cost of debt refinancing on $50B debt load\",\"Regulatory or political shifts toward lower allowed ROEs\",\"Execution risk on large capex program could lead to cost overruns\",\"Severe weather events or grid reliability failures increase operational costs\",\"Equity dilution risk to fund capex if cash flows remain negative\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.04,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.22,\"wacc\":0.065,\"terminal_multiple\":16.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":43.0,\"prob\":0.20,\"notes\":\"Rate case setbacks, rising rates compress multiples to ~14x earnings.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":53.0,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Steady 6% EPS growth, stable 16x P/E on ~$3.15 forward EPS.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":60.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Accelerated load growth from data centers, constructive regulation lifts multiple to 18x.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Earnings-power valuation anchored on forward P/E (15-18x) applied to projected FY27 EPS of $3.10-$3.30 assuming 5-7% CAGR. Rate base growth is the primary earnings driver. EV/EBITDA of 11x is in-line with regulated utility peers. 12M price return of ~7.8% supports BUY; total return with 3.7% yield ~11.5%. High debt and negative FCF temper conviction. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Unfavorable rate case outcomes could compress allowed returns and earnings growth", "Rising interest rates increase cost of debt refinancing on $50B debt load", "Regulatory or political shifts toward lower allowed ROEs", "Execution risk on large capex program could lead to cost overruns", "Severe weather events or grid reliability failures increase operational costs", "Equity dilution risk to fund capex if cash flows remain negative" ], "ticker": "EXC", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady 6% EPS growth, stable 16x P/E on ~$3.15 forward EPS.", "target_price": 53 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Rate case setbacks, rising rates compress multiples to ~14x earnings.", "target_price": 43 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Accelerated load growth from data centers, constructive regulation lifts multiple to 18x.", "target_price": 60 } }, "confidence": 0.63, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.065, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 16, "ebit_margin_target": 0.22 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Rate base growth from T&D grid investment program", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Constructive regulatory outcomes across six utilities", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Data center and electrification load growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "EPS CAGR guidance of 5-7% through rate base expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "High leverage (D/E 1.74x) limits financial flexibility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Negative FCF (-$3.5B) from heavy capex program", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment affecting utility cost of capital", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Low beta (0.37) provides defensive positioning", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Earnings-power valuation anchored on forward P/E (15-18x) applied to projected FY27 EPS of $3.10-$3.30 assuming 5-7% CAGR. Rate base growth is the primary earnings driver. EV/EBITDA of 11x is in-line with regulated utility peers. 12M price return of ~7.8% supports BUY; total return with 3.7% yield ~11.5%. High debt and negative FCF temper conviction. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 49.17, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Largest US regulated utility with ~10M customers provides earnings visibility", "Rate base growth driven by grid modernization and electrification capex", "Data center demand creates incremental load growth tailwind", "Dividend yield ~3.7% offers attractive income alongside moderate price upside", "Trading near 52-week high limits near-term entry margin of safety" ], "target_price_6m": 51, "target_price_12m": 53 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 42007, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:37.670Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3586, "outputTokens": 2042, "costUsd": 0.06898 } }, { "id": "cmnr13l7v03o7p658ztllq6p4", "runId": "cmnr13l7s03o2p6581aizwhrn", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EXC_Analysis_2026\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"EXC\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 49.17,\n \"target_price_6m\": 51.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 53.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Stable regulated utility with predictable cash flows.\",\n \"Investing in renewable energy for long-term growth.\",\n \"Strong regulatory support enabling rate increases.\",\n \"High debt manageable via stable earnings and cost control.\",\n \"Attractive dividend yield with potential for increases.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory rate approvals\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Renewable energy investment growth\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Operational efficiency improvements\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt reduction and refinancing efforts\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Customer base stability\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Weather-related demand fluctuations\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Regulatory delays or unfavorable decisions\",\n \"Rising interest rates increasing financing costs\",\n \"Extreme weather events disrupting operations\",\n \"Competition from distributed energy resources\",\n \"Cybersecurity threats to grid infrastructure\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.04,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.22,\n \"wacc\": 0.06,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 16\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 45.00, \"prob\": 0.20, \"notes\": \"Regulatory challenges and higher rates pressure earnings.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 53.00, \"prob\": 0.60, \"notes\": \"Steady growth with moderate rate increases and efficiency gains.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 58.00, \"prob\": 0.20, \"notes\": \"Favorable regulatory environment and accelerated renewable adoption.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on DCF with assumed 4% revenue growth, 22% EBIT margin, 6% WACC, and 16x terminal multiple. Recommendation reflects ~8% upside. No web search used; reliant on snapshot. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "EXC_Analysis_2026", "risks": [ "Regulatory delays or unfavorable decisions", "Rising interest rates increasing financing costs", "Extreme weather events disrupting operations", "Competition from distributed energy resources", "Cybersecurity threats to grid infrastructure" ], "ticker": "EXC", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady growth with moderate rate increases and efficiency gains.", "target_price": 53 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Regulatory challenges and higher rates pressure earnings.", "target_price": 45 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Favorable regulatory environment and accelerated renewable adoption.", "target_price": 58 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.06, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 16, "ebit_margin_target": 0.22 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Regulatory rate approvals", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Renewable energy investment growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operational efficiency improvements", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt reduction and refinancing efforts", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Customer base stability", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Weather-related demand fluctuations", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on DCF with assumed 4% revenue growth, 22% EBIT margin, 6% WACC, and 16x terminal multiple. Recommendation reflects ~8% upside. No web search used; reliant on snapshot. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 49.17, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stable regulated utility with predictable cash flows.", "Investing in renewable energy for long-term growth.", "Strong regulatory support enabling rate increases.", "High debt manageable via stable earnings and cost control.", "Attractive dividend yield with potential for increases." ], "target_price_6m": 51, "target_price_12m": 53 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 351, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:37.670Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2098, "outputTokens": 3565, "costUsd": 0.002085 } }, { "id": "cmnr13l7v03o5p658vvnrtn3e", "runId": "cmnr13l7s03o2p6581aizwhrn", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Equity Research Analyst AI\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"EXC\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 49.17,\n \"target_price_6m\": 51.25,\n \"target_price_12m\": 53.60,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.72,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Fully regulated business model provides highly predictable cash flows and earnings stability.\",\n \"Robust capital investment plan supports consistent rate base growth of 6-8% annually.\",\n \"Strong balance sheet and investment-grade credit ratings facilitate low-cost infrastructure financing.\",\n \"Attractive dividend yield combined with steady payout growth enhances total shareholder returns.\",\n \"Strategic positioning in decarbonization-focused states aligns with long-term legislative tailwinds.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Rate Base Growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory ROE Outcomes\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest Rate Environment\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Grid Modernization Spending\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operational Efficiency Gains\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Adverse regulatory rulings in key jurisdictions like Illinois or Maryland.\",\n \"Rising interest rates increasing debt service costs and yield competition.\",\n \"Execution delays or cost overruns in large-scale infrastructure projects.\",\n \"Severe weather events impacting grid reliability and maintenance expenses.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.052,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.215,\n \"wacc\": 0.062,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 17.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 43.50,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Regulatory pushback on rate hikes and sustained high interest rates compress multiples.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 53.60,\n \"prob\": 0.65,\n \"notes\": \"Successful execution of the $34B capital plan and stable regulatory environment.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 59.00,\n \"prob\": 0.15,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated grid investment and favorable ROE adjustments in key service territories.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation derived from a blended P/E multiple (18x forward) and a Dividend Discount Model. The BUY recommendation is supported by an expected 9% price appreciation plus a 3.7% yield. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "Equity Research Analyst AI", "risks": [ "Adverse regulatory rulings in key jurisdictions like Illinois or Maryland.", "Rising interest rates increasing debt service costs and yield competition.", "Execution delays or cost overruns in large-scale infrastructure projects.", "Severe weather events impacting grid reliability and maintenance expenses." ], "ticker": "EXC", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.65, "notes": "Successful execution of the $34B capital plan and stable regulatory environment.", "target_price": 53.6 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Regulatory pushback on rate hikes and sustained high interest rates compress multiples.", "target_price": 43.5 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.15, "notes": "Accelerated grid investment and favorable ROE adjustments in key service territories.", "target_price": 59 } }, "confidence": 0.72, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.062, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.052, "terminal_multiple": 17.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.215 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Rate Base Growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory ROE Outcomes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest Rate Environment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Grid Modernization Spending", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operational Efficiency Gains", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation derived from a blended P/E multiple (18x forward) and a Dividend Discount Model. The BUY recommendation is supported by an expected 9% price appreciation plus a 3.7% yield. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 49.17, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Fully regulated business model provides highly predictable cash flows and earnings stability.", "Robust capital investment plan supports consistent rate base growth of 6-8% annually.", "Strong balance sheet and investment-grade credit ratings facilitate low-cost infrastructure financing.", "Attractive dividend yield combined with steady payout growth enhances total shareholder returns.", "Strategic positioning in decarbonization-focused states aligns with long-term legislative tailwinds." ], "target_price_6m": 51.25, "target_price_12m": 53.6 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 10650, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:37.670Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2447, "outputTokens": 775, "costUsd": 0.014194 } }, { "id": "cmnr13l7v03o3p658rfec21tk", "runId": "cmnr13l7s03o2p6581aizwhrn", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"gpt-5\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"EXC\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":49.17,\"target_price_6m\":50.9,\"target_price_12m\":52,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.67,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Pure regulated utility offers visible earnings and dividend support.\",\"Rate-base investments should sustain mid-single-digit earnings growth.\",\"Valuation already discounts much of the defensive appeal.\",\"Negative free cash flow reflects heavy capex and financing dependence.\",\"Fair-value upside is modest unless rates fall or ROEs improve.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Rate-base growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Constructive rate cases\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend yield support\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Lower long rates\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Funding needs\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Balance-sheet leverage\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Weather cost recovery\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Electrification/load growth\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Unfavorable rate cases or delayed recovery\",\"Higher-for-longer rates pressure utility multiples\",\"Capex overruns increase financing needs\",\"Weather, outage, and bad-debt volatility\",\"Regulatory affordability pushback\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.045,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.215,\"wacc\":0.068,\"terminal_multiple\":11},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":44,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Rates stay higher and recovery lags capex spending.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":52,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Steady rate-base growth and stable utility valuation.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":57,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Falling yields and constructive cases lift multiples.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended utility valuation using ~16.5x normalized earnings and ~11.0x EV/EBITDA, anchored to snapshot fundamentals and dividend support; no sell-side targets used. Snapshot PE and EPSTTM appear inconsistent, so EV/EBITDA carried more weight. HOLD fits near-fair-value upside. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "gpt-5", "risks": [ "Unfavorable rate cases or delayed recovery", "Higher-for-longer rates pressure utility multiples", "Capex overruns increase financing needs", "Weather, outage, and bad-debt volatility", "Regulatory affordability pushback" ], "ticker": "EXC", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady rate-base growth and stable utility valuation.", "target_price": 52 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Rates stay higher and recovery lags capex spending.", "target_price": 44 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Falling yields and constructive cases lift multiples.", "target_price": 57 } }, "confidence": 0.67, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.068, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.045, "terminal_multiple": 11, "ebit_margin_target": 0.215 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Rate-base growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Constructive rate cases", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend yield support", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Lower long rates", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Funding needs", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Balance-sheet leverage", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Weather cost recovery", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Electrification/load growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Blended utility valuation using ~16.5x normalized earnings and ~11.0x EV/EBITDA, anchored to snapshot fundamentals and dividend support; no sell-side targets used. Snapshot PE and EPSTTM appear inconsistent, so EV/EBITDA carried more weight. HOLD fits near-fair-value upside. not investment advice", "current_price": 49.17, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Pure regulated utility offers visible earnings and dividend support.", "Rate-base investments should sustain mid-single-digit earnings growth.", "Valuation already discounts much of the defensive appeal.", "Negative free cash flow reflects heavy capex and financing dependence.", "Fair-value upside is modest unless rates fall or ROEs improve." ], "target_price_6m": 50.9, "target_price_12m": 52 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_09e2f97118bf9ed80069d758d8489c8196a07d49c9a9b0513e", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 47475, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:37.670Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2368, "outputTokens": 2834, "costUsd": 0.04382 } }, { "id": "cmnr13l7v03o6p658b4l9ktug", "runId": "cmnr13l7s03o2p6581aizwhrn", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Utility DCF Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"EXC\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 49.17,\n \"target_price_6m\": 51.25,\n \"target_price_12m\": 54.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Regulated ops deliver earnings visibility and 3.7% dividend yield\",\n \"Data center demand drives rate base growth and power pricing\",\n \"Nuclear fleet gains from clean energy transition tailwinds\",\n \"High debt load and negative FCF raise balance sheet risks\",\n \"15.9x P/E offers modest 10% upside to fair value\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Data center power demand\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Rate base expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Nuclear utilization rates\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory rate approvals\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Debt servicing costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Clean energy legislation\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Capex execution risk\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Adverse outcomes in rate cases\",\n \"Extended nuclear plant outages\",\n \"Rising interest expenses on debt\",\n \"Policy shifts on energy regulation\",\n \"Inflation eroding operating margins\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.045,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.215,\n \"wacc\": 0.07,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 15.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 44.5,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Regulatory setbacks and higher rates compress multiples.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 54.0,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Steady rate base and data center growth drive fair value.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 61.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated demand and policy support expand multiples.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF with 4.5% rev CAGR, 21.5% EBIT margin, 7% WACC, 15.5x terminal. ~10% expected return supports BUY. Snapshot fields used as baseline. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Utility DCF Model", "risks": [ "Adverse outcomes in rate cases", "Extended nuclear plant outages", "Rising interest expenses on debt", "Policy shifts on energy regulation", "Inflation eroding operating margins" ], "ticker": "EXC", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady rate base and data center growth drive fair value.", "target_price": 54 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Regulatory setbacks and higher rates compress multiples.", "target_price": 44.5 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated demand and policy support expand multiples.", "target_price": 61 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.07, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.045, "terminal_multiple": 15.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.215 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Data center power demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Rate base expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Nuclear utilization rates", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory rate approvals", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt servicing costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Clean energy legislation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Capex execution risk", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF with 4.5% rev CAGR, 21.5% EBIT margin, 7% WACC, 15.5x terminal. ~10% expected return supports BUY. Snapshot fields used as baseline. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 49.17, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Regulated ops deliver earnings visibility and 3.7% dividend yield", "Data center demand drives rate base growth and power pricing", "Nuclear fleet gains from clean energy transition tailwinds", "High debt load and negative FCF raise balance sheet risks", "15.9x P/E offers modest 10% upside to fair value" ], "target_price_6m": 51.25, "target_price_12m": 54 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "c4e2dda8-3b45-95d6-b98b-0ad0f1846d40", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 13805, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:37.670Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2708, "outputTokens": 2981, "costUsd": 0.052839 } } ] } }