{ "run": { "id": "cmnr13hvz03jqp658z34o9g29", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr13htf03j7p658o85bcbgr", "ticker": "EPAM", "snapshotId": "cmnr13huy03jgp658ptm8jys3", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:33.356Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr13huy03jgp658ptm8jys3", "assetId": "cmnr13htf03j7p658o85bcbgr", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "open": null, "price": 129.99, "dayLow": 129.66, "volume": 1244945, "dayHigh": 137.2, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 134.22, "week52Low": 125.57, "week52High": 222.53 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 30.3076923076923, "beta": 1.43016835582795, "epsTTM": 6.76, "fcfTTM": 535403000, "growth": { "epsYoy": -0.1475409836065574, "revenueYoy": 0.1542143089802324 }, "sector": "Services-Computer Programming Services", "margins": { "net": 0.06920911201937455, "gross": null, "operating": 0.0952900245113849 }, "website": "http://epam.com", "industry": "Software engineering", "pegRatio": -2.05418803418803, "ebitdaTTM": 686919000, "forwardPe": 20.406374501992, "marketCap": 9570000000, "totalCash": 1681344000, "totalDebt": 30554000, "debtEquity": 0.00680784917761378, "quickRatio": 2.249340787683466, "revenueTTM": 5457056000, "companyName": "EPAM Systems, Inc.", "priceToBook": 3.11363666618812, "currentRatio": 3.691889982782217, "dividendYield": null, "returnOnAssets": 0.09420398483369671, "returnOnEquity": 0.102707312523081, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "EPAM Systems, Inc. is a U.S.-based global provider of information technology services and consulting. The company provides services in digital engineering, cloud transformation, artificial intelligence, and software development. Headquartered in Newtown, Pennsylvania, EPAM has been listed on the New York Stock Exchange since 2012 (NYSE: EPAM).", "enterpriseValue": 10180314840, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 62850, "sharesOutstanding": 54139969, "enterpriseToEbitda": 14.82025513925223, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 1.865532411615347, "operatingCashflowTTM": 654934000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:33.322Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr13hw203jsp658gfgl16of", "runId": "cmnr13hvz03jqp658z34o9g29", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"claude-3.7-sonnet-equity-research\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"EPAM\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":129.99,\"target_price_6m\":145,\"target_price_12m\":155,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.58,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Trading near 52-week low at steep discount to historical multiples\",\"Fortress balance sheet with $1.68B cash and negligible debt\",\"Revenue growth of 15.4% YoY shows demand resilience\",\"Operating margins compressed to 9.5% with recovery potential\",\"AI disruption risk partially priced in at current valuation\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"IT services demand recovery and digital transformation spend\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating margin recovery from depressed 9.5% level\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"AI integration as both threat and opportunity for service delivery\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Strong cash generation with FCF of $535M TTM\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Macro slowdown reducing enterprise IT budgets\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Geopolitical risk from Eastern European delivery centers\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Near-zero leverage provides flexibility for M&A or buybacks\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Forward P/E of 20.4x vs IT services peers suggests discount\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"EPS declining 14.8% YoY signals near-term earnings pressure\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"AI-driven automation reduces demand for traditional IT services engagements\",\"Geopolitical instability in Eastern Europe disrupts talent delivery model\",\"Prolonged enterprise IT spending slowdown compresses revenue growth\",\"Margin recovery fails as wage inflation outpaces pricing power\",\"Key client concentration or contract losses accelerate revenue decline\",\"Tariff or trade policy changes impact cross-border service delivery\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.09,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.125,\"wacc\":0.11,\"terminal_multiple\":15},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":105,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"AI disruption accelerates, margins stay compressed, multiple contracts to 14x EV/EBITDA.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":155,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Gradual margin recovery to ~12%, steady 9% revenue growth, re-rating to 16x EV/EBITDA.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":195,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"AI becomes a tailwind, margins recover above 13%, multiple expands to 18x EV/EBITDA.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended EV/EBITDA and forward P/E valuation anchored on margin recovery path. Base case assumes normalized EBIT margins of 12.5% over 2-3 years with 9% revenue CAGR. Current 14.8x EV/EBITDA is below 5Y average for IT services peers. Stock near 52-wk low prices in significant headwinds but balance sheet strength and FCF generation provide downside support. Confidence moderate due to AI disruption uncertainty and EPS decline trend. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "claude-3.7-sonnet-equity-research", "risks": [ "AI-driven automation reduces demand for traditional IT services engagements", "Geopolitical instability in Eastern Europe disrupts talent delivery model", "Prolonged enterprise IT spending slowdown compresses revenue growth", "Margin recovery fails as wage inflation outpaces pricing power", "Key client concentration or contract losses accelerate revenue decline", "Tariff or trade policy changes impact cross-border service delivery" ], "ticker": "EPAM", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Gradual margin recovery to ~12%, steady 9% revenue growth, re-rating to 16x EV/EBITDA.", "target_price": 155 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "AI disruption accelerates, margins stay compressed, multiple contracts to 14x EV/EBITDA.", "target_price": 105 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "AI becomes a tailwind, margins recover above 13%, multiple expands to 18x EV/EBITDA.", "target_price": 195 } }, "confidence": 0.58, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.11, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.09, "terminal_multiple": 15, "ebit_margin_target": 0.125 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "IT services demand recovery and digital transformation spend", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating margin recovery from depressed 9.5% level", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "AI integration as both threat and opportunity for service delivery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Strong cash generation with FCF of $535M TTM", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macro slowdown reducing enterprise IT budgets", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Geopolitical risk from Eastern European delivery centers", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Near-zero leverage provides flexibility for M&A or buybacks", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Forward P/E of 20.4x vs IT services peers suggests discount", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "EPS declining 14.8% YoY signals near-term earnings pressure", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended EV/EBITDA and forward P/E valuation anchored on margin recovery path. Base case assumes normalized EBIT margins of 12.5% over 2-3 years with 9% revenue CAGR. Current 14.8x EV/EBITDA is below 5Y average for IT services peers. Stock near 52-wk low prices in significant headwinds but balance sheet strength and FCF generation provide downside support. Confidence moderate due to AI disruption uncertainty and EPS decline trend. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 129.99, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Trading near 52-week low at steep discount to historical multiples", "Fortress balance sheet with $1.68B cash and negligible debt", "Revenue growth of 15.4% YoY shows demand resilience", "Operating margins compressed to 9.5% with recovery potential", "AI disruption risk partially priced in at current valuation" ], "target_price_6m": 145, "target_price_12m": 155 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 38066, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:33.356Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3574, "outputTokens": 1846, "costUsd": 0.06402 } }, { "id": "cmnr13hw203jvp658ddu4ism3", "runId": "cmnr13hvz03jqp658z34o9g29", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EPAM_Equity_Research_Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"EPAM\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 129.99,\n \"target_price_6m\": 140,\n \"target_price_12m\": 150,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Digital transformation drives sustained demand.\",\n \"Revenue growth projected at 10% CAGR.\",\n \"Stable operating margins near 9.5%.\",\n \"Valuation reasonable vs forward earnings.\",\n \"Balanced by competitive and economic risks.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Digital engineering services growth\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"AI and cloud adoption trends\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Economic sensitivity of IT spending\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competitive intensity in IT services\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Margin stabilization efforts\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Currency exchange rate volatility\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Client concentration and retention\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Economic downturn reducing corporate IT budgets.\",\n \"Increased competition pressuring pricing and margins.\",\n \"Execution risks in achieving margin targets.\",\n \"Global regulatory uncertainties affecting operations.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.1,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.095,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 14\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 120, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Growth stalls and margins decline further.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 150, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Moderate earnings recovery and stable growth.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 180, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong demand drives higher margins and growth.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF with 10% revenue CAGR, 9.5% EBIT margin, 9% WACC, 14x terminal multiple. 15% 12M upside supports BUY. not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "EPAM_Equity_Research_Model", "risks": [ "Economic downturn reducing corporate IT budgets.", "Increased competition pressuring pricing and margins.", "Execution risks in achieving margin targets.", "Global regulatory uncertainties affecting operations." ], "ticker": "EPAM", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Moderate earnings recovery and stable growth.", "target_price": 150 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Growth stalls and margins decline further.", "target_price": 120 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong demand drives higher margins and growth.", "target_price": 180 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.1, "terminal_multiple": 14, "ebit_margin_target": 0.095 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Digital engineering services growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "AI and cloud adoption trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Economic sensitivity of IT spending", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competitive intensity in IT services", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Margin stabilization efforts", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Currency exchange rate volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Client concentration and retention", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF with 10% revenue CAGR, 9.5% EBIT margin, 9% WACC, 14x terminal multiple. 15% 12M upside supports BUY. not investment advice.", "current_price": 129.99, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Digital transformation drives sustained demand.", "Revenue growth projected at 10% CAGR.", "Stable operating margins near 9.5%.", "Valuation reasonable vs forward earnings.", "Balanced by competitive and economic risks." ], "target_price_6m": 140, "target_price_12m": 150 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 339, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:33.356Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2086, "outputTokens": 4512, "costUsd": 0.002479 } }, { "id": "cmnr13hw203jtp6586ysl5tq4", "runId": "cmnr13hvz03jqp658z34o9g29", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EPAM_DCF_Multiples_Blended\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"EPAM\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 129.99,\n \"target_price_6m\": 145.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 162.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"STRONG_BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.80,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong 15% YoY revenue growth demonstrates resilient demand despite macro IT spending headwinds.\",\n \"Margin compression from workforce relocation is peaking, setting up an EPS recovery cycle.\",\n \"Robust FCF yield of ~5.6% provides a strong valuation floor at current levels.\",\n \"Net cash position of ~$1.65B offers significant capital allocation flexibility for M&A.\",\n \"Trading near 52-week lows presents an asymmetric risk/reward profile for long-term investors.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Discretionary IT spending recovery\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Workforce utilization rates\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Wage inflation in delivery centers\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"AI consulting pipeline growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Vendor consolidation trends\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Geopolitical stability in Eastern Europe\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged slowdown in enterprise digital transformation spending.\",\n \"Intense competition from Indian IT majors and boutique AI consultancies.\",\n \"Further margin dilution if wage inflation outpaces pricing power.\",\n \"Geopolitical risks impacting remaining Eastern European delivery centers.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.12,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.13,\n \"wacc\": 0.095,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 18.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 105.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Macro recession triggers deep cuts in IT budgets and prolonged margin depression.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 162.00,\n \"prob\": 0.60,\n \"notes\": \"Steady revenue growth and gradual margin expansion as utilization normalizes.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 195.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"AI-driven supercycle accelerates revenue growth to 20%+ with rapid margin recovery.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Blended DCF and forward P/E valuation. Assumes 12% revenue CAGR and EBIT margin recovery to 13%. Target implies ~21x forward P/E, a discount to historical averages but fair given near-term macro risks. Upside of ~24.6% supports STRONG_BUY. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "EPAM_DCF_Multiples_Blended", "risks": [ "Prolonged slowdown in enterprise digital transformation spending.", "Intense competition from Indian IT majors and boutique AI consultancies.", "Further margin dilution if wage inflation outpaces pricing power.", "Geopolitical risks impacting remaining Eastern European delivery centers." ], "ticker": "EPAM", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady revenue growth and gradual margin expansion as utilization normalizes.", "target_price": 162 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Macro recession triggers deep cuts in IT budgets and prolonged margin depression.", "target_price": 105 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "AI-driven supercycle accelerates revenue growth to 20%+ with rapid margin recovery.", "target_price": 195 } }, "confidence": 0.8, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.12, "terminal_multiple": 18, "ebit_margin_target": 0.13 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Discretionary IT spending recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Workforce utilization rates", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Wage inflation in delivery centers", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "AI consulting pipeline growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Vendor consolidation trends", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Geopolitical stability in Eastern Europe", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended DCF and forward P/E valuation. Assumes 12% revenue CAGR and EBIT margin recovery to 13%. Target implies ~21x forward P/E, a discount to historical averages but fair given near-term macro risks. Upside of ~24.6% supports STRONG_BUY. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 129.99, "recommendation": "STRONG_BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong 15% YoY revenue growth demonstrates resilient demand despite macro IT spending headwinds.", "Margin compression from workforce relocation is peaking, setting up an EPS recovery cycle.", "Robust FCF yield of ~5.6% provides a strong valuation floor at current levels.", "Net cash position of ~$1.65B offers significant capital allocation flexibility for M&A.", "Trading near 52-week lows presents an asymmetric risk/reward profile for long-term investors." ], "target_price_6m": 145, "target_price_12m": 162 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 35017, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:33.356Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2425, "outputTokens": 865, "costUsd": 0.01523 } }, { "id": "cmnr13hw203jrp6581w70ekw9", "runId": "cmnr13hvz03jqp658z34o9g29", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"EPAM\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":129.99,\"target_price_6m\":138,\"target_price_12m\":146,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.63,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Revenue growth remains positive despite soft enterprise discretionary spending.\",\"Cash-rich, near-debt-free balance sheet limits downside and supports investment.\",\"Margins are depressed but have room to recover with utilization normalization.\",\"AI and cloud engineering demand can offset slower legacy project work.\",\"Valuation looks reasonable, not distressed, given mixed growth and profitability signals.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Enterprise IT spending recovery\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"AI/cloud engineering demand\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Utilization and wage leverage\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Europe macro exposure\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Pricing pressure\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Offshore mix expansion\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Client concentration\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Net cash balance sheet\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Prolonged discretionary spending weakness\",\"Faster price competition from peers\",\"Geopolitical delivery disruption\",\"AI cannibalizes legacy development work\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":8,\"ebit_margin_target\":11,\"wacc\":10.5,\"terminal_multiple\":19},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":112,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Soft demand and weak utilization keep margins near current levels.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":146,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Demand stabilizes and margins recover modestly over the next year.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":178,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"AI-led bookings and utilization rebound drive faster earnings recovery.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Base target uses ~19x normalized 12M EPS with modest margin recovery, cross-checked to EV/EBIT. Snapshot PE/marketCap conflict with quote×shares/EPS, so quote fields were kept authoritative. No sell-side targets used; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation", "risks": [ "Prolonged discretionary spending weakness", "Faster price competition from peers", "Geopolitical delivery disruption", "AI cannibalizes legacy development work" ], "ticker": "EPAM", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Demand stabilizes and margins recover modestly over the next year.", "target_price": 146 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Soft demand and weak utilization keep margins near current levels.", "target_price": 112 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "AI-led bookings and utilization rebound drive faster earnings recovery.", "target_price": 178 } }, "confidence": 0.63, "assumptions": { "wacc": 10.5, "revenue_cagr_3y": 8, "terminal_multiple": 19, "ebit_margin_target": 11 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Enterprise IT spending recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "AI/cloud engineering demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Utilization and wage leverage", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Europe macro exposure", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Pricing pressure", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Offshore mix expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Client concentration", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Net cash balance sheet", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Base target uses ~19x normalized 12M EPS with modest margin recovery, cross-checked to EV/EBIT. Snapshot PE/marketCap conflict with quote×shares/EPS, so quote fields were kept authoritative. No sell-side targets used; not investment advice.", "current_price": 129.99, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Revenue growth remains positive despite soft enterprise discretionary spending.", "Cash-rich, near-debt-free balance sheet limits downside and supports investment.", "Margins are depressed but have room to recover with utilization normalization.", "AI and cloud engineering demand can offset slower legacy project work.", "Valuation looks reasonable, not distressed, given mixed growth and profitability signals." ], "target_price_6m": 138, "target_price_12m": 146 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0987a72089d37f740069d7589db5e881908afc47920cebb43b", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 55332, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:33.356Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2357, "outputTokens": 3238, "costUsd": 0.049457 } }, { "id": "cmnr13hw203jup658aglfb75u", "runId": "cmnr13hvz03jqp658z34o9g29", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"EPAM\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 129.99,\n \"target_price_6m\": 142,\n \"target_price_12m\": 155,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"EPAM benefits from AI and digital engineering tailwinds.\",\n \"15% revenue growth but negative EPS growth raises concerns.\",\n \"Healthy balance sheet with low leverage and high liquidity.\",\n \"Current valuation at forward P/E of 20 is fair for growth.\",\n \"Macro headwinds in IT spending limit near-term upside.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"AI and digital transformation demand\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Macro IT spending slowdown\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"EBIT margin expansion potential\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Competition from global IT firms\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Strong cash flow and balance sheet\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Geopolitical and FX volatility\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Client project deferrals\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged IT spending slowdown\",\n \"Intensifying competition from peers\",\n \"Margin compression from cost inflation\",\n \"AI disruption to traditional services\",\n \"Adverse currency exchange impacts\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.12,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.13,\n \"wacc\": 0.095,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 20\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 115,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Extended macro weakness reduces growth and margins.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 155,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Steady recovery in demand with moderate margin gains.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 195,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"AI acceleration drives higher revenue and margins.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF using assumed revenue CAGR, target EBIT margin, WACC and terminal EV/EBIT multiple. Mixed growth signals support BUY with moderate upside. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Prolonged IT spending slowdown", "Intensifying competition from peers", "Margin compression from cost inflation", "AI disruption to traditional services", "Adverse currency exchange impacts" ], "ticker": "EPAM", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady recovery in demand with moderate margin gains.", "target_price": 155 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Extended macro weakness reduces growth and margins.", "target_price": 115 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "AI acceleration drives higher revenue and margins.", "target_price": 195 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.12, "terminal_multiple": 20, "ebit_margin_target": 0.13 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "AI and digital transformation demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macro IT spending slowdown", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "EBIT margin expansion potential", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competition from global IT firms", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Strong cash flow and balance sheet", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Geopolitical and FX volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Client project deferrals", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF using assumed revenue CAGR, target EBIT margin, WACC and terminal EV/EBIT multiple. Mixed growth signals support BUY with moderate upside. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 129.99, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "EPAM benefits from AI and digital engineering tailwinds.", "15% revenue growth but negative EPS growth raises concerns.", "Healthy balance sheet with low leverage and high liquidity.", "Current valuation at forward P/E of 20 is fair for growth.", "Macro headwinds in IT spending limit near-term upside." ], "target_price_6m": 142, "target_price_12m": 155 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "9f178199-6003-983c-854e-716276d93214", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 20629, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:33.356Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2698, "outputTokens": 4558, "costUsd": 0.076464 } } ] } }