{ "run": { "id": "cmnr13ho603ikp658g2lnhfcn", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr13hnj03igp6588xaxdppl", "ticker": "EME", "snapshotId": "cmnr13hnr03iip658tus1alya", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:33.076Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr13hnr03iip658tus1alya", "assetId": "cmnr13hnj03igp6588xaxdppl", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "open": null, "price": 789.19, "dayLow": 776.91, "volume": 385172, "dayHigh": 794.915, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 750.42, "week52Low": 347.68, "week52High": 835 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 16.1129394166043, "beta": 1.00399370982019, "epsTTM": 13.37, "fcfTTM": 826274000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.3095788986580287, "revenueYoy": 0.1661600113578664 }, "sector": "Electrical Work", "margins": { "net": 0.07493143641433139, "gross": 0.1932713081071458, "operating": 0.1008698594677561 }, "website": "http://emcorgroup.com", "industry": "Engineering", "pegRatio": 0.24999656003243, "ebitdaTTM": 932511000, "forwardPe": 12.5761821366025, "marketCap": 17258000000, "totalCash": 789750000, "totalDebt": 5303000, "debtEquity": 0.00214715654605394, "quickRatio": 1.134973588509403, "revenueTTM": 16986422000, "companyName": "EMCOR Group, Inc.", "priceToBook": 4.12917784043322, "currentRatio": 1.263934708123541, "dividendYield": 0.00320354909931011, "returnOnAssets": 0.1925674321200547, "returnOnEquity": 0.256295909996769, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "EMCOR Group, Inc., is an engineering, construction, and property management company headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut. Major clients, mostly of an industrial and/or commercial nature, include data centers, oil refineries; semiconductor, biotech, life sciences, and pharmaceutical facilities; and several facilities used by legislative, executive, and judicial branch entities of the United States Government both at federal buildings and laboratories around the country as well as agency headquarters in the Washington, DC area. It provides mechanical and electrical construction, engineering, industrial infrastructure, energy infrastructure, facilities management, and building services to private sector and public sector clients in the United States.", "enterpriseValue": 9417987545.81, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 40400, "sharesOutstanding": 44532566, "enterpriseToEbitda": 10.09959941041982, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 0.5544421035701338, "operatingCashflowTTM": 1302063000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:33.063Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr13ho803imp658c2exxwoh", "runId": "cmnr13ho603ikp658g2lnhfcn", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Equity Research Model v1.0\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"EME\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":789.19,\"target_price_6m\":855,\"target_price_12m\":910,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.65,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Data center and AI infrastructure buildout provides multi-year revenue tailwind\",\"Near-zero debt and $790M cash give exceptional balance sheet flexibility\",\"Strong EPS growth of 31% YoY with expanding operating margins\",\"PEG ratio of 0.25 signals undervaluation relative to earnings growth\",\"Government infrastructure spending and energy transition add diversified demand\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Data center capex cycle acceleration\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Energy infrastructure and grid modernization demand\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating margin expansion toward 11%+\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Federal infrastructure and government facility spending\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Strong free cash flow enabling buybacks and M&A\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Tight skilled labor market constraining capacity\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Potential cyclical slowdown in commercial construction\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Valuation near 52-week high limits margin of safety\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Cyclical construction downturn could compress backlog and margins\",\"Skilled labor shortage may pressure wage costs and project timelines\",\"Concentration in data center end-market creates boom/bust exposure\",\"Rising interest rates could slow commercial and industrial construction starts\",\"Potential policy shifts reducing government infrastructure spending\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.12,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.11,\"wacc\":0.095,\"terminal_multiple\":14.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":640,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Cyclical slowdown and margin compression; data center spend decelerates materially.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":910,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Continued strong execution with data center and infrastructure tailwinds sustaining mid-teens growth.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":1080,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Accelerated AI/data center capex and margin expansion drive EPS upside surprise.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended valuation using forward P/E (14-15x on estimated FY+1 EPS ~$63) and EV/EBITDA cross-check. Snapshot market cap ($17.3B) appears stale vs implied market cap at quoted price ($35.1B); used price as authoritative per rules. Strong fundamentals and growth warrant BUY, but proximity to 52-week high and cyclical risk temper confidence to medium. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model v1.0", "risks": [ "Cyclical construction downturn could compress backlog and margins", "Skilled labor shortage may pressure wage costs and project timelines", "Concentration in data center end-market creates boom/bust exposure", "Rising interest rates could slow commercial and industrial construction starts", "Potential policy shifts reducing government infrastructure spending" ], "ticker": "EME", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Continued strong execution with data center and infrastructure tailwinds sustaining mid-teens growth.", "target_price": 910 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Cyclical slowdown and margin compression; data center spend decelerates materially.", "target_price": 640 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Accelerated AI/data center capex and margin expansion drive EPS upside surprise.", "target_price": 1080 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.12, "terminal_multiple": 14.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.11 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Data center capex cycle acceleration", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Energy infrastructure and grid modernization demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating margin expansion toward 11%+", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Federal infrastructure and government facility spending", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Strong free cash flow enabling buybacks and M&A", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Tight skilled labor market constraining capacity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Potential cyclical slowdown in commercial construction", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Valuation near 52-week high limits margin of safety", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended valuation using forward P/E (14-15x on estimated FY+1 EPS ~$63) and EV/EBITDA cross-check. Snapshot market cap ($17.3B) appears stale vs implied market cap at quoted price ($35.1B); used price as authoritative per rules. Strong fundamentals and growth warrant BUY, but proximity to 52-week high and cyclical risk temper confidence to medium. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 789.19, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Data center and AI infrastructure buildout provides multi-year revenue tailwind", "Near-zero debt and $790M cash give exceptional balance sheet flexibility", "Strong EPS growth of 31% YoY with expanding operating margins", "PEG ratio of 0.25 signals undervaluation relative to earnings growth", "Government infrastructure spending and energy transition add diversified demand" ], "target_price_6m": 855, "target_price_12m": 910 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 45383, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:33.076Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3646, "outputTokens": 2070, "costUsd": 0.06998 } }, { "id": "cmnr13ho803ipp658rpa5qoua", "runId": "cmnr13ho603ikp658g2lnhfcn", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"equity_research_analyst\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"EME\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 789.19,\n \"target_price_6m\": 820.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 850.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong revenue growth from infrastructure demand.\",\n \"Healthy margins and operational efficiency.\",\n \"Low debt and strong financial health.\",\n \"Exposed to construction cycle risks.\",\n \"Valuation offers moderate upside potential.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\"driver\": \"Infrastructure spending trends\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Economic cycle sensitivity\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Margin expansion opportunities\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Debt and liquidity position\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Competitive intensity\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Government contract pipeline\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Technological efficiency gains\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\"}\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Economic recession impacting construction\",\n \"Rising input costs pressuring margins\",\n \"Regulatory changes affecting projects\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.15,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.105,\n \"wacc\": 0.08,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 10.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\"target_price\": 700.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Downturn reduces growth and margins.\"},\n \"base\": {\"target_price\": 850.0, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Steady execution and moderate growth.\"},\n \"bull\": {\"target_price\": 950.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong demand and margin expansion.\"}\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on forward P/E and growth assumptions, with scenario analysis. Expected return ~7.7% supports BUY. Note snapshot data used as is. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "equity_research_analyst", "risks": [ "Economic recession impacting construction", "Rising input costs pressuring margins", "Regulatory changes affecting projects" ], "ticker": "EME", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady execution and moderate growth.", "target_price": 850 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Downturn reduces growth and margins.", "target_price": 700 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong demand and margin expansion.", "target_price": 950 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.08, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.15, "terminal_multiple": 10, "ebit_margin_target": 0.105 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Infrastructure spending trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Economic cycle sensitivity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Margin expansion opportunities", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt and liquidity position", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive intensity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Government contract pipeline", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Technological efficiency gains", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on forward P/E and growth assumptions, with scenario analysis. Expected return ~7.7% supports BUY. Note snapshot data used as is. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 789.19, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong revenue growth from infrastructure demand.", "Healthy margins and operational efficiency.", "Low debt and strong financial health.", "Exposed to construction cycle risks.", "Valuation offers moderate upside potential." ], "target_price_6m": 820, "target_price_12m": 850 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 348, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:33.076Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2159, "outputTokens": 4296, "costUsd": 0.002409 } }, { "id": "cmnr13ho803inp6589mvsuu5x", "runId": "cmnr13ho603ikp658g2lnhfcn", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearch-Alpha-v1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"EME\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 789.19,\n \"target_price_6m\": 840.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 895.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.7,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong secular tailwinds from data center expansion and US manufacturing reshoring drive backlog growth.\",\n \"Pristine balance sheet with virtually zero debt provides significant capital allocation flexibility.\",\n \"Exceptional ROE of 25.6% highlights efficient execution and strong pricing power in specialized engineering.\",\n \"Forward valuation remains reasonable despite recent price appreciation, supported by robust EPS growth.\",\n \"Margin expansion continues as high-margin electrical and mechanical segments outpace traditional facilities management.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Data center construction demand\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"US infrastructure bill spending\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Semiconductor fab buildouts\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Labor availability and wage inflation\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Non-residential construction cycle\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Bolt-on M&A execution\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Supply chain material costs\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Slowdown in hyperscaler capital expenditures impacting the data center pipeline.\",\n \"Skilled labor shortages constraining revenue growth and pressuring operating margins.\",\n \"Macroeconomic recession reducing broader non-residential construction demand.\",\n \"Delays in government funding for infrastructure and CHIPS Act projects.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.12,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.105,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 14.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 650.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Macro slowdown and delayed data center capex compress multiples and stall backlog conversion.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 895.00,\n \"prob\": 0.6,\n \"notes\": \"Continued strong execution in high-tech manufacturing and data centers drives steady earnings growth.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 1050.00,\n \"prob\": 0.15,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated reshoring and AI infrastructure spending lead to significant margin expansion and multiple rerate.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a blend of forward P/E multiples and DCF, anchoring on strong forward EPS growth. Discrepancies in snapshot trailing metrics vs price suggest forward pricing dynamics. Recommendation is BUY due to ~13% upside to the 12M target. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch-Alpha-v1", "risks": [ "Slowdown in hyperscaler capital expenditures impacting the data center pipeline.", "Skilled labor shortages constraining revenue growth and pressuring operating margins.", "Macroeconomic recession reducing broader non-residential construction demand.", "Delays in government funding for infrastructure and CHIPS Act projects." ], "ticker": "EME", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Continued strong execution in high-tech manufacturing and data centers drives steady earnings growth.", "target_price": 895 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Macro slowdown and delayed data center capex compress multiples and stall backlog conversion.", "target_price": 650 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.15, "notes": "Accelerated reshoring and AI infrastructure spending lead to significant margin expansion and multiple rerate.", "target_price": 1050 } }, "confidence": 0.7, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.12, "terminal_multiple": 14, "ebit_margin_target": 0.105 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Data center construction demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "US infrastructure bill spending", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Semiconductor fab buildouts", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Labor availability and wage inflation", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Non-residential construction cycle", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Bolt-on M&A execution", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Supply chain material costs", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a blend of forward P/E multiples and DCF, anchoring on strong forward EPS growth. Discrepancies in snapshot trailing metrics vs price suggest forward pricing dynamics. Recommendation is BUY due to ~13% upside to the 12M target. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 789.19, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong secular tailwinds from data center expansion and US manufacturing reshoring drive backlog growth.", "Pristine balance sheet with virtually zero debt provides significant capital allocation flexibility.", "Exceptional ROE of 25.6% highlights efficient execution and strong pricing power in specialized engineering.", "Forward valuation remains reasonable despite recent price appreciation, supported by robust EPS growth.", "Margin expansion continues as high-margin electrical and mechanical segments outpace traditional facilities management." ], "target_price_6m": 840, "target_price_12m": 895 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 27921, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:33.076Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2518, "outputTokens": 890, "costUsd": 0.015716 } }, { "id": "cmnr13ho803ilp658orwgzwk9", "runId": "cmnr13ho603ikp658g2lnhfcn", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"gpt-5\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"EME\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":789.19,\"target_price_6m\":825,\"target_price_12m\":830,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Data center, healthcare, and institutional demand support above-market backlog conversion.\",\"Service maintenance mix improves resilience and cash generation through construction cycles.\",\"Net cash balance sheet allows buybacks, acquisitions, and bid flexibility.\",\"Current margins look above-cycle, limiting multiple expansion from here.\",\"At 52-week highs, valuation appears roughly fair on normalized earnings.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Data center demand\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Service and retrofit mix\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Federal/public projects\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Margin normalization\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Labor cost pressure\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Industrial capex timing\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Working capital conversion\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Cash deployment optionality\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Data center spending slows materially.\",\"Project execution claims or fixed-price losses.\",\"Wage inflation and labor scarcity compress margins.\",\"Customer capex delays in industrial and commercial markets.\",\"Valuation de-rates as earnings normalize.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":8,\"ebit_margin_target\":8.8,\"wacc\":9.5,\"terminal_multiple\":13},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":620,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Awards soften and margins normalize faster than expected.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":830,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Healthy secular demand offsets normalizing profitability.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":980,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Data centers and services sustain elevated earnings longer.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Valuation blends normalized earnings and FCF, anchored to 8.0% 3Y revenue CAGR, 8.8% EBIT margin, 9.5% WACC, and 13.0x terminal multiple. Snapshot quote fields were kept authoritative; PE/EPS/EV fields appear internally inconsistent, so targets rely on normalized profitability. No sell-side targets used; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "gpt-5", "risks": [ "Data center spending slows materially.", "Project execution claims or fixed-price losses.", "Wage inflation and labor scarcity compress margins.", "Customer capex delays in industrial and commercial markets.", "Valuation de-rates as earnings normalize." ], "ticker": "EME", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Healthy secular demand offsets normalizing profitability.", "target_price": 830 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Awards soften and margins normalize faster than expected.", "target_price": 620 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Data centers and services sustain elevated earnings longer.", "target_price": 980 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 9.5, "revenue_cagr_3y": 8, "terminal_multiple": 13, "ebit_margin_target": 8.8 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Data center demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Service and retrofit mix", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Federal/public projects", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Margin normalization", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Labor cost pressure", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Industrial capex timing", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Working capital conversion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cash deployment optionality", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation blends normalized earnings and FCF, anchored to 8.0% 3Y revenue CAGR, 8.8% EBIT margin, 9.5% WACC, and 13.0x terminal multiple. Snapshot quote fields were kept authoritative; PE/EPS/EV fields appear internally inconsistent, so targets rely on normalized profitability. No sell-side targets used; not investment advice.", "current_price": 789.19, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Data center, healthcare, and institutional demand support above-market backlog conversion.", "Service maintenance mix improves resilience and cash generation through construction cycles.", "Net cash balance sheet allows buybacks, acquisitions, and bid flexibility.", "Current margins look above-cycle, limiting multiple expansion from here.", "At 52-week highs, valuation appears roughly fair on normalized earnings." ], "target_price_6m": 825, "target_price_12m": 830 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_052ee085461c02bf0069d75893ca608190a8368d805e17f40c", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 64972, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:33.076Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2430, "outputTokens": 3723, "costUsd": 0.056375 } }, { "id": "cmnr13ho803iop658h1f1fopb", "runId": "cmnr13ho603ikp658g2lnhfcn", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Hybrid DCF Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"EME\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 789.19,\n \"target_price_6m\": 845,\n \"target_price_12m\": 920,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"AI data center boom fuels project demand\",\n \"16% revenue growth and solid backlog\",\n \"Margin gains from specialty contracts\",\n \"Strong FCF with negligible net debt\",\n \"Forward P/E 12.6x implies upside\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Data center and tech construction demand\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Federal and infrastructure spending\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Labor cost inflation and shortages\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Project backlog conversion rate\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Cyclical exposure to commercial builds\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operating margin expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Acquisition execution risks\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Potential multiple compression\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Construction spending slowdown\",\n \"Rising labor and input costs\",\n \"Large project execution delays\",\n \"Client capex cuts from rates\",\n \"Intense sector competition\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.13,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.11,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 16\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 680,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Macro slowdown hits infrastructure budgets.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 920,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Steady data center growth at improved margins.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 1150,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated AI buildout drives outsized growth.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF using revenue CAGR, EBIT target, WACC and terminal multiple; 17% 12M upside supports BUY per rubric. Snapshot fields used verbatim. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "Hybrid DCF Model", "risks": [ "Construction spending slowdown", "Rising labor and input costs", "Large project execution delays", "Client capex cuts from rates", "Intense sector competition" ], "ticker": "EME", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady data center growth at improved margins.", "target_price": 920 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Macro slowdown hits infrastructure budgets.", "target_price": 680 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Accelerated AI buildout drives outsized growth.", "target_price": 1150 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.13, "terminal_multiple": 16, "ebit_margin_target": 0.11 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Data center and tech construction demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Federal and infrastructure spending", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Labor cost inflation and shortages", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Project backlog conversion rate", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cyclical exposure to commercial builds", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operating margin expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Acquisition execution risks", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Potential multiple compression", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF using revenue CAGR, EBIT target, WACC and terminal multiple; 17% 12M upside supports BUY per rubric. Snapshot fields used verbatim. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 789.19, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "AI data center boom fuels project demand", "16% revenue growth and solid backlog", "Margin gains from specialty contracts", "Strong FCF with negligible net debt", "Forward P/E 12.6x implies upside" ], "target_price_6m": 845, "target_price_12m": 920 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "a2209aa7-700d-993a-92d2-a60fda762d01", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 15537, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:33.076Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2771, "outputTokens": 2899, "costUsd": 0.051798 } } ] } }