{ "run": { "id": "cmnr13ed603dip658btbdrvrw", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr13ech03dep6584l6oapwo", "ticker": "DUK", "snapshotId": "cmnr13ecv03dgp658mkcphggv", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:28.791Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr13ecv03dgp658mkcphggv", "assetId": "cmnr13ech03dep6584l6oapwo", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "open": null, "price": 131.6, "dayLow": 129.46, "volume": 2922152, "dayHigh": 131.66, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 131.82, "week52Low": 111.22, "week52High": 134.49 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 18.5752773375594, "beta": 0.241631154379142, "epsTTM": 6.31, "fcfTTM": -2030000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.1050788091068301, "revenueYoy": 0.05627287853577371 }, "sector": "Electric & Other Services Combined", "margins": { "net": 0.1565168079140544, "gross": null, "operating": 0.2717620742887747 }, "website": "https://duke-energy.com", "industry": "Energy", "pegRatio": 1.76774722662441, "ebitdaTTM": 15681000000, "forwardPe": 17.467958271237, "marketCap": 91703190830, "totalCash": 314000000, "totalDebt": 84273000000, "debtEquity": 1.73288067589985, "quickRatio": 0.11380895799969, "revenueTTM": 31741000000, "companyName": "Duke Energy CORP", "priceToBook": 0.521338893691074, "currentRatio": 0.6690086273699437, "dividendYield": 0.0362349991221248, "returnOnAssets": 0.02666051313974767, "returnOnEquity": 0.095829636202307, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Duke Energy Corporation is an American electric power and natural gas holding company headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina. The company serves over 7 million customers in the eastern United States. In 2024 it ranked as the 141st largest company in the United States – its highest-ever placement on the Fortune 500 list.", "enterpriseValue": 180663170000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 27037, "sharesOutstanding": 777670866, "enterpriseToEbitda": 11.52115107454882, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 5.69179200403264, "operatingCashflowTTM": 12330000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:28.784Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr13ed903dkp658czljee21", "runId": "cmnr13ed603dip658btbdrvrw", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"DUK\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":131.6,\"target_price_6m\":137,\"target_price_12m\":142,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.6,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Regulated utility with predictable earnings and 3.6% dividend yield\",\"EPS grew 10.5% YoY supported by rate base expansion\",\"Forward P/E of 17.5x fair for utility with above-average growth\",\"Data center demand in Carolinas provides multi-year capex runway\",\"High leverage and negative FCF limit financial flexibility\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Rate base growth from grid modernization and renewables capex\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Data center power demand in Carolinas service territory\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Constructive regulatory outcomes on allowed ROE\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest rate environment impact on refinancing costs\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"EPS growth guidance of 5-7% CAGR through 2028\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend growth supporting total return thesis\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Negative FCF from heavy capex program\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory lag risk on cost recovery timing\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Low beta (0.24) defensive positioning in uncertain macro\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Rising interest rates compress utility valuations and increase debt servicing costs\",\"Regulatory disallowances on capex recovery reduce earned ROE\",\"Storm damage or severe weather events create unrecoverable costs\",\"Execution risk on large-scale grid modernization program\",\"Leverage at 1.73x D/E constrains balance sheet flexibility\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.045,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.275,\"wacc\":0.065,\"terminal_multiple\":18.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":120,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"P/E compresses to 16x on higher rates and regulatory setbacks.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":142,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Steady 5-7% EPS growth with constructive regulation supports re-rating.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":158,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Data center demand accelerates rate base growth; P/E expands to 20x.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Valuation anchored on forward P/E (17.5-18.5x) applied to projected FY27 EPS of ~$7.70, cross-checked with EV/EBITDA (11.5x) and dividend discount model using 3.6% yield + 5-6% dividend growth. Probability-weighted scenario return ~7.6% supports BUY. Sell-side targets noted but not used as inputs. 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Probability-weighted scenario return ~7.6% supports BUY. Sell-side targets noted but not used as inputs. Disclaimer: not investment advice.", "current_price": 131.6, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Regulated utility with predictable earnings and 3.6% dividend yield", "EPS grew 10.5% YoY supported by rate base expansion", "Forward P/E of 17.5x fair for utility with above-average growth", "Data center demand in Carolinas provides multi-year capex runway", "High leverage and negative FCF limit financial flexibility" ], "target_price_6m": 137, "target_price_12m": 142 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [ { "error": "sanity_error: buy_scenario_return_too_low: BUY requires >= 6% return from probability-weighted scenarios.", "attempt": 0, "rawOutputTruncated": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"DUK\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":131.6,\"target_price_6m\":136,\"target_price_12m\":140,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.6,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Regulated utility with predictable earnings and 3.6% dividend yield\",\"EPS growth of 10.5% YoY driven by rate base expansion\",\"Forward P/E of 17.5x reasonable for utility with above-average growth\",\"Grid modernization and data center demand provide multi-year capex runway\",\"High leverage ($84B debt) and negative FCF constrain financial flexibility\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Rate base growth from grid modernization and renewables capex\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Data center power demand in Carolinas service territory\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Constructive regulatory outcomes on allowed ROE\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest rate environment impact on cost of debt refinancing\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"EPS growth guidance of 5-7% CAGR through 2028\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend growth supporting total return thesis\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver…" } ], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 17139, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:28.791Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 4192, "outputTokens": 1099, "costUsd": 0.048435 } }, { "id": "cmnr13ed903dnp6585x43cqno", "runId": "cmnr13ed603dip658btbdrvrw", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"DUK\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 131.6,\n \"target_price_6m\": 125.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 112.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"SELL\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\"Stable regulated utility with predictable cash flows.\", \"High debt levels increasing financial risk.\", \"Moderate revenue growth supported by rate base investments.\", \"Current valuation appears stretched relative to earnings growth.\", \"Dividend yield provides some downside protection.\"],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\"driver\": \"Regulatory rate approvals\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Capital expenditure efficiency\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Renewable energy transition costs\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Customer growth in service areas\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Operating margin stability\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"}\n ],\n \"risks\": [\"Regulatory risk from delayed approvals.\", \"Rising interest rates increasing cost of debt.\", \"Extreme weather events impacting operations.\", \"Slow economic growth reducing demand.\"],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.056,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.272,\n \"wacc\": 0.06,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 17.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\"target_price\": 100.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Adverse regulatory decisions.\"},\n \"base\": {\"target_price\": 112.0, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Base case with steady performance.\"},\n \"bull\": {\"target_price\": 130.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Better-than-expected growth.\"}\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on forward earnings and target P/E multiple. SELL due to overvaluation vs growth. not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Regulatory risk from delayed approvals.", "Rising interest rates increasing cost of debt.", "Extreme weather events impacting operations.", "Slow economic growth reducing demand." ], "ticker": "DUK", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Base case with steady performance.", "target_price": 112 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Adverse regulatory decisions.", "target_price": 100 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Better-than-expected growth.", "target_price": 130 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.06, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.056, "terminal_multiple": 17, "ebit_margin_target": 0.272 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Regulatory rate approvals", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Capital expenditure efficiency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Renewable energy transition costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Customer growth in service areas", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating margin stability", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on forward earnings and target P/E multiple. SELL due to overvaluation vs growth. not investment advice.", "current_price": 131.6, "recommendation": "SELL", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stable regulated utility with predictable cash flows.", "High debt levels increasing financial risk.", "Moderate revenue growth supported by rate base investments.", "Current valuation appears stretched relative to earnings growth.", "Dividend yield provides some downside protection." ], "target_price_6m": 125, "target_price_12m": 112 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 350, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:28.791Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2092, "outputTokens": 3714, "costUsd": 0.002146 } }, { "id": "cmnr13ed903dlp658s9dtk5sm", "runId": "cmnr13ed603dip658btbdrvrw", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearch_Utility_v1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"DUK\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 131.6,\n \"target_price_6m\": 135.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 138.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.75,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Valuation is full at 17.5x forward P/E, limiting near-term multiple expansion upside.\",\n \"Constructive regulatory environments in NC and FL support steady 5-7% rate base growth.\",\n \"Heavy capex for clean energy transition keeps free cash flow deeply negative.\",\n \"High debt load (D/E 1.7x) increases sensitivity to prolonged higher interest rates.\",\n \"Defensive profile (0.24 beta) and 3.6% yield provide strong downside protection.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulated rate base growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Capital expenditure requirements\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory rate case outcomes\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Dividend growth rate\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Clean energy transition costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regional population growth in Southeast\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Adverse regulatory rulings or lower-than-expected allowed ROE in key jurisdictions.\",\n \"Higher-for-longer interest rates increasing debt servicing costs.\",\n \"Cost overruns on major grid modernization or renewable generation projects.\",\n \"Extreme weather events causing unrecoverable infrastructure damage.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.045,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.27,\n \"wacc\": 0.065,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 17.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 115.0,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Higher rates compress multiples to 15x; regulatory pushback on rate hikes.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 138.0,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Constructive rate cases and steady 6% EPS growth; multiple holds at 17.5x.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 152.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Falling interest rates drive utility sector re-rating; premium multiple of 19x.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a 17.5x forward P/E applied to NTM EPS estimates, supported by a DCF model (6.5% WACC). The ~4.8% price upside plus 3.6% yield warrants a HOLD rating as valuation appears fair. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch_Utility_v1", "risks": [ "Adverse regulatory rulings or lower-than-expected allowed ROE in key jurisdictions.", "Higher-for-longer interest rates increasing debt servicing costs.", "Cost overruns on major grid modernization or renewable generation projects.", "Extreme weather events causing unrecoverable infrastructure damage." ], "ticker": "DUK", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Constructive rate cases and steady 6% EPS growth; multiple holds at 17.5x.", "target_price": 138 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Higher rates compress multiples to 15x; regulatory pushback on rate hikes.", "target_price": 115 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Falling interest rates drive utility sector re-rating; premium multiple of 19x.", "target_price": 152 } }, "confidence": 0.75, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.065, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.045, "terminal_multiple": 17.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.27 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Regulated rate base growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Capital expenditure requirements", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory rate case outcomes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend growth rate", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Clean energy transition costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regional population growth in Southeast", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a 17.5x forward P/E applied to NTM EPS estimates, supported by a DCF model (6.5% WACC). The ~4.8% price upside plus 3.6% yield warrants a HOLD rating as valuation appears fair. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 131.6, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Valuation is full at 17.5x forward P/E, limiting near-term multiple expansion upside.", "Constructive regulatory environments in NC and FL support steady 5-7% rate base growth.", "Heavy capex for clean energy transition keeps free cash flow deeply negative.", "High debt load (D/E 1.7x) increases sensitivity to prolonged higher interest rates.", "Defensive profile (0.24 beta) and 3.6% yield provide strong downside protection." ], "target_price_6m": 135, "target_price_12m": 138 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 24390, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:28.791Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2450, "outputTokens": 903, "costUsd": 0.015736 } }, { "id": "cmnr13ed903djp658rahxjafd", "runId": "cmnr13ed603dip658btbdrvrw", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"o3\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"DUK\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":131.6,\"target_price_6m\":129,\"target_price_12m\":136,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.64,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Regulated rate-base growth supports steady EPS and dividend expansion.\",\"Defensive utility profile and 3.6% yield underpin downside protection.\",\"Shares already trade near fair value for a low-growth regulated utility.\",\"Heavy capex and negative free cash flow require ongoing external financing.\",\"High leverage and rate sensitivity limit multiple expansion.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"regulated rate-base growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"constructive rate outcomes\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"dividend yield support\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"load growth from electrification\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"interest-rate sensitivity\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"high leverage/refinancing needs\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"capex execution discipline\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"persistent FCF deficit\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Adverse rate cases or lower allowed ROEs.\",\"Higher long-term yields compress utility valuations.\",\"Equity issuance or balance-sheet stress from capex.\",\"Storms, outages, or project delays raise costs.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.045,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.28,\"wacc\":0.061,\"terminal_multiple\":11.6},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":118,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Higher rates and weaker regulation pressure returns and valuation.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":136,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Steady rate-base growth and normal regulation keep shares near fair value.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":150,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Lower yields and favorable rate cases support modest multiple expansion.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Used snapshot quote/fundamentals as authoritative. Valuation cross-check used regulated-utility earnings/dividend framing and EV/EBITDA anchored by assumed 11.6x terminal multiple; did not use sell-side price targets as inputs. Mixed upside versus leverage/rate risk supports HOLD. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "o3", "risks": [ "Adverse rate cases or lower allowed ROEs.", "Higher long-term yields compress utility valuations.", "Equity issuance or balance-sheet stress from capex.", "Storms, outages, or project delays raise costs." ], "ticker": "DUK", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady rate-base growth and normal regulation keep shares near fair value.", "target_price": 136 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Higher rates and weaker regulation pressure returns and valuation.", "target_price": 118 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Lower yields and favorable rate cases support modest multiple expansion.", "target_price": 150 } }, "confidence": 0.64, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.061, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.045, "terminal_multiple": 11.6, "ebit_margin_target": 0.28 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "regulated rate-base growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "constructive rate outcomes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "dividend yield support", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "load growth from electrification", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "interest-rate sensitivity", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "high leverage/refinancing needs", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "capex execution discipline", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "persistent FCF deficit", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Used snapshot quote/fundamentals as authoritative. Valuation cross-check used regulated-utility earnings/dividend framing and EV/EBITDA anchored by assumed 11.6x terminal multiple; did not use sell-side price targets as inputs. Mixed upside versus leverage/rate risk supports HOLD. not investment advice", "current_price": 131.6, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Regulated rate-base growth supports steady EPS and dividend expansion.", "Defensive utility profile and 3.6% yield underpin downside protection.", "Shares already trade near fair value for a low-growth regulated utility.", "Heavy capex and negative free cash flow require ongoing external financing.", "High leverage and rate sensitivity limit multiple expansion." ], "target_price_6m": 129, "target_price_12m": 136 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0cbe01a3669739560069d75859f26081979451edce0ca825f0", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 32063, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:28.791Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2364, "outputTokens": 1777, "costUsd": 0.029015 } }, { "id": "cmnr13ed903dmp658fak3rf7o", "runId": "cmnr13ed603dip658btbdrvrw", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Utility DCF Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"DUK\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 131.6,\n \"target_price_6m\": 139,\n \"target_price_12m\": 146,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Rising data center demand drives revenue and rate base growth\",\n \"Approved rate increases support stable earnings visibility\",\n \"Attractive 3.6% dividend yield appeals to income investors\",\n \"High debt load increases sensitivity to interest rates\",\n \"Renewables shift offers long-term upside but adds capex risk\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"AI data center power demand\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory rate approvals\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Dividend yield stability\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Elevated debt and interest costs\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Grid modernization investments\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate volatility\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Extreme weather events\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Unfavorable regulatory rate decisions\",\n \"Rising interest expenses on debt\",\n \"Capex execution delays and overruns\",\n \"Extreme weather impacting infrastructure\",\n \"Policy changes on energy transition\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.055,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.275,\n \"wacc\": 0.062,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 16.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 118,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Higher rates and regulatory delays constrain returns.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 146,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Steady demand growth and rate base expansion.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 168,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated AI demand and favorable regulations.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"3-stage DCF using revenue CAGR, EBIT margin, WACC and terminal multiple. 12M target implies ~11% upside consistent with BUY per rubric given demand tailwinds vs debt risks. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "Utility DCF Model", "risks": [ "Unfavorable regulatory rate decisions", "Rising interest expenses on debt", "Capex execution delays and overruns", "Extreme weather impacting infrastructure", "Policy changes on energy transition" ], "ticker": "DUK", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady demand growth and rate base expansion.", "target_price": 146 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Higher rates and regulatory delays constrain returns.", "target_price": 118 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Accelerated AI demand and favorable regulations.", "target_price": 168 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.062, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.055, "terminal_multiple": 16.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.275 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "AI data center power demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory rate approvals", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend yield stability", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Elevated debt and interest costs", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Grid modernization investments", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Extreme weather events", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "3-stage DCF using revenue CAGR, EBIT margin, WACC and terminal multiple. 12M target implies ~11% upside consistent with BUY per rubric given demand tailwinds vs debt risks. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 131.6, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Rising data center demand drives revenue and rate base growth", "Approved rate increases support stable earnings visibility", "Attractive 3.6% dividend yield appeals to income investors", "High debt load increases sensitivity to interest rates", "Renewables shift offers long-term upside but adds capex risk" ], "target_price_6m": 139, "target_price_12m": 146 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "85cc4fbe-f29c-98ed-b98d-ff3ab4af6be0", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 17057, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:28.791Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2702, "outputTokens": 3384, "costUsd": 0.058866 } } ] } }