{ "run": { "id": "cmnr136fm031qp65815lrlzx4", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr136cu031gp658uss8lrj8", "ticker": "CSGP", "snapshotId": "cmnr136ef031op658owpxjqgm", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:18.511Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr136ef031op658owpxjqgm", "assetId": "cmnr136cu031gp658uss8lrj8", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "open": null, "price": 38.82, "dayLow": 38.48, "volume": 6041593, "dayHigh": 41.12, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 39.48, "week52Low": 38.48, "week52High": 97.43 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 3362, "beta": 1.03424798582626, "epsTTM": 0.02, "fcfTTM": -77100000, "growth": { "epsYoy": -0.9411764705882353, "revenueYoy": 0.1866822600687084 }, "sector": "Services-Business Services, NEC", "margins": { "net": 0.002155836156452109, "gross": 0.7887280566676933, "operating": -0.02217431475207884 }, "website": "http://costargroup.com", "industry": "Commercial property", "pegRatio": -35.72125, "ebitdaTTM": 307000000, "forwardPe": 66.5742574257426, "marketCap": 33900000000, "totalCash": 1633000000, "totalDebt": 168000000, "debtEquity": 0.0201583873290137, "quickRatio": 2.502680965147453, "revenueTTM": 3247000000, "companyName": "COSTAR GROUP, INC.", "priceToBook": 3.34794313702067, "currentRatio": 2.840482573726542, "dividendYield": null, "returnOnAssets": 0.0006642626684380338, "returnOnEquity": 0.00083993280537557, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "CoStar Group, Inc. is an American provider of information, analytics, and marketing services to the commercial property industry in North America and Europe. Founded in 1987 by Andrew C. Florance and based in Arlington, Virginia, the company operates the CoStar online database and news website and several online marketplaces, including Apartments.com and Homes.com.", "enterpriseValue": 26560632000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 8400, "sharesOutstanding": 419793301, "enterpriseToEbitda": 86.51671661237785, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 8.18005297197413, "operatingCashflowTTM": 430000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:18.472Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr136fp031sp658avayoolg", "runId": "cmnr136fm031qp65815lrlzx4", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI_Equity_Research_v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"CSGP\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":38.82,\"target_price_6m\":42.5,\"target_price_12m\":46.0,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.55,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Stock down ~60% from 52-week high, potentially oversold given recurring revenue base.\",\"Revenue growing 19% YoY to $3.25B with strong 79% gross margins.\",\"Homes.com heavy investment is temporarily crushing profitability and FCF.\",\"Fortress balance sheet: $1.6B cash, minimal debt, quick ratio 2.5x.\",\"Forward PE of 67 implies market expects meaningful earnings recovery ahead.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Homes.com traffic and monetization trajectory\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Heavy marketing spend compressing operating margins to negative\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Core CoStar/Apartments.com revenue growth at ~19% YoY\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"EPS collapsed 94% YoY due to investment phase spending\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Strong balance sheet provides runway to sustain investment\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Potential moderation in Homes.com spend to improve margins\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Macroeconomic headwinds in commercial and residential real estate\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Negative FCF (-$77M TTM) raises sustainability questions\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Homes.com may fail to gain market share against Zillow/Redfin, leading to sunk cost.\",\"Prolonged negative FCF could force capital raises or spending cuts undermining growth.\",\"Commercial real estate market slowdown could impair core CoStar revenue.\",\"Key-person risk: strategy heavily tied to CEO Andrew Florance's vision.\",\"Multiple compression risk if growth decelerates while margins remain depressed.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.12,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.18,\"wacc\":0.10,\"terminal_multiple\":7.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":28.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Homes.com fails to gain traction; negative margins persist; multiple compresses further.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":46.0,\"prob\":0.50,\"notes\":\"Revenue grows ~15%; management moderates spend; gradual margin recovery to mid-single digits.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":60.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Homes.com shows strong adoption; operating leverage emerges; margins inflect positively.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended EV/Revenue and forward earnings-power valuation. At ~8x EV/Revenue on 12-19% growth with 79% gross margins, stock is cheap vs software peers but justified by negative operating margins. Base assumes spend moderation yields ~5% EBIT margin by FY27, supporting ~7x forward EV/Revenue (~$46). Terminal multiple is EV/Revenue given pre-profit stage. Confidence is low-medium due to binary Homes.com outcome and negative current profitability. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI_Equity_Research_v1", "risks": [ "Homes.com may fail to gain market share against Zillow/Redfin, leading to sunk cost.", "Prolonged negative FCF could force capital raises or spending cuts undermining growth.", "Commercial real estate market slowdown could impair core CoStar revenue.", "Key-person risk: strategy heavily tied to CEO Andrew Florance's vision.", "Multiple compression risk if growth decelerates while margins remain depressed." ], "ticker": "CSGP", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Revenue grows ~15%; management moderates spend; gradual margin recovery to mid-single digits.", "target_price": 46 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Homes.com fails to gain traction; negative margins persist; multiple compresses further.", "target_price": 28 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Homes.com shows strong adoption; operating leverage emerges; margins inflect positively.", "target_price": 60 } }, "confidence": 0.55, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.1, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.12, "terminal_multiple": 7.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.18 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Homes.com traffic and monetization trajectory", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Heavy marketing spend compressing operating margins to negative", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Core CoStar/Apartments.com revenue growth at ~19% YoY", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "EPS collapsed 94% YoY due to investment phase spending", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Strong balance sheet provides runway to sustain investment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Potential moderation in Homes.com spend to improve margins", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macroeconomic headwinds in commercial and residential real estate", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Negative FCF (-$77M TTM) raises sustainability questions", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended EV/Revenue and forward earnings-power valuation. At ~8x EV/Revenue on 12-19% growth with 79% gross margins, stock is cheap vs software peers but justified by negative operating margins. Base assumes spend moderation yields ~5% EBIT margin by FY27, supporting ~7x forward EV/Revenue (~$46). Terminal multiple is EV/Revenue given pre-profit stage. Confidence is low-medium due to binary Homes.com outcome and negative current profitability. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 38.82, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stock down ~60% from 52-week high, potentially oversold given recurring revenue base.", "Revenue growing 19% YoY to $3.25B with strong 79% gross margins.", "Homes.com heavy investment is temporarily crushing profitability and FCF.", "Fortress balance sheet: $1.6B cash, minimal debt, quick ratio 2.5x.", "Forward PE of 67 implies market expects meaningful earnings recovery ahead." ], "target_price_6m": 42.5, "target_price_12m": 46 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 43694, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:18.511Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3585, "outputTokens": 1958, "costUsd": 0.066875 } }, { "id": "cmnr136fp031vp658cc8v0uf3", "runId": "cmnr136fm031qp65815lrlzx4", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Analyst\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"CSGP\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 38.82,\n \"target_price_6m\": 39.5,\n \"target_price_12m\": 40.5,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Revenue growth driven by digital adoption in commercial property.\",\n \"High valuation multiples limit near-term upside potential.\",\n \"Negative operating margins indicate ongoing cost pressures.\",\n \"Market leadership in platforms like Apartments.com.\",\n \"Mixed earnings with high P/E ratio uncertainty.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\"driver\": \"Revenue growth from digital adoption\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Margin expansion efforts\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Economic sensitivity to property cycles\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Competition in online real estate platforms\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Investment in technology and data\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Regulatory changes in real estate\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"User growth on Homes.com\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"}\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Economic recession impacting commercial property demand\",\n \"Increased competition from tech giants\",\n \"Failure to achieve profitability targets\",\n \"Data privacy and security concerns\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.15,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.2,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 18\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\"target_price\": 30.0, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Downturn reduces demand and margins.\"},\n \"base\": {\"target_price\": 40.5, \"prob\": 0.5, \"notes\": \"Moderate growth with gradual improvement.\"},\n \"bull\": {\"target_price\": 55.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong adoption and margin expansion.\"}\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on revenue growth and margin assumptions. Snapshot data discrepancy noted. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Analyst", "risks": [ "Economic recession impacting commercial property demand", "Increased competition from tech giants", "Failure to achieve profitability targets", "Data privacy and security concerns" ], "ticker": "CSGP", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate growth with gradual improvement.", "target_price": 40.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Downturn reduces demand and margins.", "target_price": 30 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong adoption and margin expansion.", "target_price": 55 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.15, "terminal_multiple": 18, "ebit_margin_target": 0.2 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Revenue growth from digital adoption", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Margin expansion efforts", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Economic sensitivity to property cycles", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competition in online real estate platforms", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Investment in technology and data", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory changes in real estate", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "User growth on Homes.com", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on revenue growth and margin assumptions. Snapshot data discrepancy noted. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 38.82, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Revenue growth driven by digital adoption in commercial property.", "High valuation multiples limit near-term upside potential.", "Negative operating margins indicate ongoing cost pressures.", "Market leadership in platforms like Apartments.com.", "Mixed earnings with high P/E ratio uncertainty." ], "target_price_6m": 39.5, "target_price_12m": 40.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 387, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:18.511Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2095, "outputTokens": 4347, "costUsd": 0.002412 } }, { "id": "cmnr136fp031tp658lqu9su7f", "runId": "cmnr136fm031qp65815lrlzx4", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"CSGP_Normalized_DCF_SOTP\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"CSGP\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 38.82,\n \"target_price_6m\": 42.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 46.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Stock is heavily oversold due to massive Homes.com marketing spend depressing near-term earnings.\",\n \"Core CRE and Apartments.com businesses remain highly profitable with strong competitive moats.\",\n \"Revenue growth remains robust at 18.6% despite commercial real estate macro headwinds.\",\n \"Net cash position of $1.46B provides ample liquidity to fund residential expansion.\",\n \"Valuation is attractive historically, but execution risk on Homes.com monetization remains high.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Homes.com marketing spend\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Apartments.com revenue growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Commercial real estate transaction volumes\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Homes.com monetization traction\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Core CoStar suite renewal rates\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Failure to gain sufficient market share in residential real estate against Zillow.\",\n \"Prolonged downturn in commercial real estate affecting core data subscriptions.\",\n \"Margin compression if Homes.com requires sustained billion-dollar marketing investments.\",\n \"Cannibalization or pricing pressure in the multifamily listings segment.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.14,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.25,\n \"wacc\": 0.095,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 25.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 30.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Homes.com fails to monetize and CRE recession deepens, forcing multiple contraction.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 46.00,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Homes.com gains moderate traction and core margins recover as marketing spend normalizes.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 65.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Homes.com becomes a strong #2 player, driving massive operating leverage and revenue acceleration.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on SOTP and normalized DCF. Core business valued at 20x EV/EBITDA, while residential expansion is valued at 5x sales. Recommendation is BUY due to 18.5% upside, but capped by Homes.com execution risks. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "CSGP_Normalized_DCF_SOTP", "risks": [ "Failure to gain sufficient market share in residential real estate against Zillow.", "Prolonged downturn in commercial real estate affecting core data subscriptions.", "Margin compression if Homes.com requires sustained billion-dollar marketing investments.", "Cannibalization or pricing pressure in the multifamily listings segment." ], "ticker": "CSGP", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Homes.com gains moderate traction and core margins recover as marketing spend normalizes.", "target_price": 46 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Homes.com fails to monetize and CRE recession deepens, forcing multiple contraction.", "target_price": 30 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Homes.com becomes a strong #2 player, driving massive operating leverage and revenue acceleration.", "target_price": 65 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.14, "terminal_multiple": 25, "ebit_margin_target": 0.25 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Homes.com marketing spend", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Apartments.com revenue growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Commercial real estate transaction volumes", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Homes.com monetization traction", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Core CoStar suite renewal rates", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on SOTP and normalized DCF. Core business valued at 20x EV/EBITDA, while residential expansion is valued at 5x sales. Recommendation is BUY due to 18.5% upside, but capped by Homes.com execution risks. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 38.82, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stock is heavily oversold due to massive Homes.com marketing spend depressing near-term earnings.", "Core CRE and Apartments.com businesses remain highly profitable with strong competitive moats.", "Revenue growth remains robust at 18.6% despite commercial real estate macro headwinds.", "Net cash position of $1.46B provides ample liquidity to fund residential expansion.", "Valuation is attractive historically, but execution risk on Homes.com monetization remains high." ], "target_price_6m": 42, "target_price_12m": 46 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 26432, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:18.511Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2430, "outputTokens": 861, "costUsd": 0.015192 } }, { "id": "cmnr136fp031rp658sh7ksjjt", "runId": "cmnr136fm031qp65815lrlzx4", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"CSGP\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":38.82,\"target_price_6m\":40.2,\"target_price_12m\":41,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.58,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Proprietary property data supports durable pricing power and high gross margins.\",\"Apartments.com and core CoStar products should sustain solid revenue growth.\",\"Homes.com spend creates upside optionality, but monetization remains unproven.\",\"Net cash meaningfully reduces balance-sheet and liquidity risk.\",\"Valuation appears roughly fair given negative FCF and weak current margins.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Homes.com monetization traction\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Apartments.com demand resilience\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Commercial CRE leasing softness\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Margin recovery after ad spend\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Salesforce productivity\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"AI product upsell potential\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Execution risk in residential push\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Net cash balance\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Homes.com ROI remains below expectations.\",\"Commercial real estate weakness reduces subscriptions.\",\"Marketing intensity keeps FCF negative longer.\",\"Competition raises customer acquisition costs.\",\"Snapshot data inconsistencies reduce valuation precision.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.11,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.16,\"wacc\":0.09,\"terminal_multiple\":4.7},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":30,\"prob\":0.3,\"notes\":\"Homes.com losses persist and CRE demand stays soft.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":41,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Core subscriptions grow steadily and margin pressure eases.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":54,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Residential monetization inflects faster and margins rebound sooner.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Targets use a per-share sales framework cross-checked to margin recovery, with snapshot quote fields kept authoritative. Snapshot fundamentals show a market-cap/share-count inconsistency versus price, so EV metrics were treated cautiously. No sell-side targets used; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation", "risks": [ "Homes.com ROI remains below expectations.", "Commercial real estate weakness reduces subscriptions.", "Marketing intensity keeps FCF negative longer.", "Competition raises customer acquisition costs.", "Snapshot data inconsistencies reduce valuation precision." ], "ticker": "CSGP", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Core subscriptions grow steadily and margin pressure eases.", "target_price": 41 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Homes.com losses persist and CRE demand stays soft.", "target_price": 30 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Residential monetization inflects faster and margins rebound sooner.", "target_price": 54 } }, "confidence": 0.58, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.11, "terminal_multiple": 4.7, "ebit_margin_target": 0.16 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Homes.com monetization traction", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Apartments.com demand resilience", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Commercial CRE leasing softness", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Margin recovery after ad spend", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Salesforce productivity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "AI product upsell potential", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Execution risk in residential push", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Net cash balance", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Targets use a per-share sales framework cross-checked to margin recovery, with snapshot quote fields kept authoritative. Snapshot fundamentals show a market-cap/share-count inconsistency versus price, so EV metrics were treated cautiously. No sell-side targets used; not investment advice.", "current_price": 38.82, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Proprietary property data supports durable pricing power and high gross margins.", "Apartments.com and core CoStar products should sustain solid revenue growth.", "Homes.com spend creates upside optionality, but monetization remains unproven.", "Net cash meaningfully reduces balance-sheet and liquidity risk.", "Valuation appears roughly fair given negative FCF and weak current margins." ], "target_price_6m": 40.2, "target_price_12m": 41 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0bd5ee3497451b0a0069d757c06fdc8196a6436a16688457ce", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 48290, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:18.511Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2366, "outputTokens": 2803, "costUsd": 0.043382 } }, { "id": "cmnr136fp031up658vjvpbxge", "runId": "cmnr136fm031qp65815lrlzx4", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Analyst\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"CSGP\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 38.82,\n \"target_price_6m\": 43,\n \"target_price_12m\": 47,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Leader in commercial real estate data services\",\n \"Homes.com investments diluting near-term margins\",\n \"Solid 19% revenue growth amid macro headwinds\",\n \"Path to 22% EBIT margins by 2028 on scale\",\n \"8x EV/sales offers upside on execution\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Commercial platform dominance\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Homes.com share gains\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Residential marketing spend\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Falling interest rates\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Competition from Zillow\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operating leverage\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"AI product enhancements\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Macro transaction volumes\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Persistent margin pressure from competition\",\n \"Slower revenue growth in residential\",\n \"Prolonged negative FCF\",\n \"Recession in commercial real estate\",\n \"Strategic execution shortfalls\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.16,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.22,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 28\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 29,\n \"prob\": 0.35,\n \"notes\": \"Persistent losses erode market confidence.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 47,\n \"prob\": 0.45,\n \"notes\": \"Gradual margin recovery with steady growth.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 68,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Strong execution drives market share gains.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF using rev CAGR, target EBIT margin, WACC and terminal EV/EBIT. Balanced growth vs investment risks support BUY with 21% 12M upside. not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Analyst", "risks": [ "Persistent margin pressure from competition", "Slower revenue growth in residential", "Prolonged negative FCF", "Recession in commercial real estate", "Strategic execution shortfalls" ], "ticker": "CSGP", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.45, "notes": "Gradual margin recovery with steady growth.", "target_price": 47 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.35, "notes": "Persistent losses erode market confidence.", "target_price": 29 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong execution drives market share gains.", "target_price": 68 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.16, "terminal_multiple": 28, "ebit_margin_target": 0.22 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Commercial platform dominance", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Homes.com share gains", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Residential marketing spend", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Falling interest rates", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competition from Zillow", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operating leverage", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "AI product enhancements", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macro transaction volumes", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF using rev CAGR, target EBIT margin, WACC and terminal EV/EBIT. Balanced growth vs investment risks support BUY with 21% 12M upside. not investment advice.", "current_price": 38.82, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Leader in commercial real estate data services", "Homes.com investments diluting near-term margins", "Solid 19% revenue growth amid macro headwinds", "Path to 22% EBIT margins by 2028 on scale", "8x EV/sales offers upside on execution" ], "target_price_6m": 43, "target_price_12m": 47 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "f622af6f-9b2d-925b-b998-9ddda3bd763f", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 31467, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:18.511Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2705, "outputTokens": 3769, "costUsd": 0.06465 } } ] } }