{ "run": { "id": "cmnr134jm02y8p658eu34o5o6", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr134j002y4p6584yzbhn3e", "ticker": "CPRT", "snapshotId": "cmnr134ja02y6p658rixyyejz", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:16.063Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr134ja02y6p658rixyyejz", "assetId": "cmnr134j002y4p6584yzbhn3e", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "open": null, "price": 33.17, "dayLow": 33.115, "volume": 6327153, "dayHigh": 34.045, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 33.11, "week52Low": 32.2, "week52High": 63.85 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 36.8521126760563, "beta": 1.07347113228742, "epsTTM": 1.42, "fcfTTM": 951304000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.1338028169014086, "revenueYoy": -0.758621876935406 }, "sector": "Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations", "margins": { "net": 0.3173342377049515, "gross": 0.1135441286952248, "operating": 0.3700150935149573 }, "website": "https://copart.com/", "industry": null, "pegRatio": 3.99231220657277, "ebitdaTTM": 1838672000, "forwardPe": 33.9805194805195, "marketCap": 51160400303, "totalCash": 1048260000, "totalDebt": 400000000, "debtEquity": 0, "quickRatio": 3.631295557809282, "revenueTTM": 2205583000, "companyName": "COPART INC", "priceToBook": 6.66027761207277, "currentRatio": 4.043908880818752, "dividendYield": null, "returnOnAssets": 0.1534162782709792, "returnOnEquity": 0.181156034992506, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Copart, Inc. is a multinational provider of online vehicle auction and remarketing services to automotive resellers such as insurance, rental car, fleet, and finance companies. Copart operates in 11 countries: the US, Canada, the UK, Germany, Ireland, Brazil, Spain, UAE, Bahrain, Oman, and Finland. Headquartered in Dallas, Texas, Copart has more than 200 locations, where it houses more than 10,000 acres of vehicle inventory.", "enterpriseValue": 48761360870, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 11600, "sharesOutstanding": 963308388, "enterpriseToEbitda": 26.51988003841903, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 22.10815048447508, "operatingCashflowTTM": 662753000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:16.054Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr134jo02yap6589hu9i157", "runId": "cmnr134jm02y8p658eu34o5o6", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"CPRT\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":33.17,\"target_price_6m\":37.0,\"target_price_12m\":39.5,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.58,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Dominant vehicle remarketing platform with durable competitive moat and scale advantages\",\"Stock near 52-week low offers attractive entry despite premium historical multiples\",\"Strong net cash balance sheet ($1B cash vs $400M debt) supports resilience\",\"FCF generation of ~$951M TTM underpins capital-light compounder thesis\",\"Macro and tariff headwinds likely temporary; structural auto-loss trends intact\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Total loss frequency secular increase driven by vehicle complexity and repair costs\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"International expansion across 11 countries diversifying revenue base\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Land bank and yard capacity creating high barriers to entry\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Potential macro slowdown reducing miles driven and accident frequency\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Revenue decline signal (-75.8% YoY) suggests possible data anomaly or revenue reclassification\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"EPS growth of 13.4% YoY signals underlying earnings power intact\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Elevated valuation (P/E ~37x, EV/EBITDA ~26.5x) limits near-term upside\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"CAT event volumes can be lumpy and unpredictable quarter to quarter\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Blue Car (non-insurance) segment growth expanding TAM\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Revenue decline data may reflect genuine structural deterioration rather than anomaly\",\"Elevated valuation multiples compress further in risk-off macro environment\",\"Insurance industry consolidation pressures auction fees and take rates\",\"Macro recession reduces accident volumes and used vehicle values\",\"Tariff/trade policy disruption impacts cross-border vehicle remarketing\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.08,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.37,\"wacc\":0.095,\"terminal_multiple\":25.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":28.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Revenue headwinds persist, multiple compresses to ~22x EV/EBITDA amid macro weakness.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":39.5,\"prob\":0.50,\"notes\":\"Gradual recovery toward mid-range valuation as earnings grow ~10-12% and sentiment normalizes.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":50.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Strong CAT season and international growth re-rate stock toward historical premium multiples.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended EV/EBITDA and P/E approach anchored to TTM fundamentals. Applied 25x terminal EV/EBITDA on ~$1.95B forward EBITDA. Revenue YoY of -75.8% appears anomalous vs healthy EPS growth and margins; flagged but snapshot values retained. Stock's ~48% drawdown from 52-week high suggests meaningful headwinds priced in, supporting moderate upside at current entry. Confidence tempered by data inconsistencies and unclear catalyst timing. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Revenue decline data may reflect genuine structural deterioration rather than anomaly", "Elevated valuation multiples compress further in risk-off macro environment", "Insurance industry consolidation pressures auction fees and take rates", "Macro recession reduces accident volumes and used vehicle values", "Tariff/trade policy disruption impacts cross-border vehicle remarketing" ], "ticker": "CPRT", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Gradual recovery toward mid-range valuation as earnings grow ~10-12% and sentiment normalizes.", "target_price": 39.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Revenue headwinds persist, multiple compresses to ~22x EV/EBITDA amid macro weakness.", "target_price": 28 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong CAT season and international growth re-rate stock toward historical premium multiples.", "target_price": 50 } }, "confidence": 0.58, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 25, "ebit_margin_target": 0.37 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Total loss frequency secular increase driven by vehicle complexity and repair costs", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "International expansion across 11 countries diversifying revenue base", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Land bank and yard capacity creating high barriers to entry", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Potential macro slowdown reducing miles driven and accident frequency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Revenue decline signal (-75.8% YoY) suggests possible data anomaly or revenue reclassification", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "EPS growth of 13.4% YoY signals underlying earnings power intact", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Elevated valuation (P/E ~37x, EV/EBITDA ~26.5x) limits near-term upside", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "CAT event volumes can be lumpy and unpredictable quarter to quarter", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Blue Car (non-insurance) segment growth expanding TAM", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Blended EV/EBITDA and P/E approach anchored to TTM fundamentals. Applied 25x terminal EV/EBITDA on ~$1.95B forward EBITDA. Revenue YoY of -75.8% appears anomalous vs healthy EPS growth and margins; flagged but snapshot values retained. Stock's ~48% drawdown from 52-week high suggests meaningful headwinds priced in, supporting moderate upside at current entry. Confidence tempered by data inconsistencies and unclear catalyst timing. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 33.17, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Dominant vehicle remarketing platform with durable competitive moat and scale advantages", "Stock near 52-week low offers attractive entry despite premium historical multiples", "Strong net cash balance sheet ($1B cash vs $400M debt) supports resilience", "FCF generation of ~$951M TTM underpins capital-light compounder thesis", "Macro and tariff headwinds likely temporary; structural auto-loss trends intact" ], "target_price_6m": 37, "target_price_12m": 39.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 65495, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:16.063Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3614, "outputTokens": 2338, "costUsd": 0.07652 } }, { "id": "cmnr134jo02ydp658qnmjxoon", "runId": "cmnr134jm02y8p658eu34o5o6", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model v1.0\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"CPRT\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 33.17,\n \"target_price_6m\": 34.5,\n \"target_price_12m\": 36.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Copart leads online vehicle auctions with network effects.\",\n \"High operating margins indicate cost efficiency.\",\n \"Recent revenue decline reflects cyclical challenges.\",\n \"Digital adoption supports long-term industry growth.\",\n \"Valuation aligns with strong cash flow generation.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Economic cycle impact on vehicle supply\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Digital platform adoption trends\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Insurance industry outsourcing to auctions\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"International market expansion\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competition from traditional and online rivals\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Technology and automation investments\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory changes in key markets\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Cyclical demand fluctuations in auto industry\",\n \"Increased competitive pressures\",\n \"Economic recession reducing vehicle sales\",\n \"Regulatory risks in international operations\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.03,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.35,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 22.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 30.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Economic downturn reduces auction volumes.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 36.0, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Modest growth with stable margins.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 42.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Accelerated digital adoption boosts demand.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF with assumed 3% revenue CAGR and 35% EBIT margin; BUY due to 8.5% expected upside. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model v1.0", "risks": [ "Cyclical demand fluctuations in auto industry", "Increased competitive pressures", "Economic recession reducing vehicle sales", "Regulatory risks in international operations" ], "ticker": "CPRT", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Modest growth with stable margins.", "target_price": 36 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Economic downturn reduces auction volumes.", "target_price": 30 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated digital adoption boosts demand.", "target_price": 42 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.03, "terminal_multiple": 22, "ebit_margin_target": 0.35 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Economic cycle impact on vehicle supply", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Digital platform adoption trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Insurance industry outsourcing to auctions", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "International market expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competition from traditional and online rivals", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Technology and automation investments", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory changes in key markets", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF with assumed 3% revenue CAGR and 35% EBIT margin; BUY due to 8.5% expected upside. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 33.17, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Copart leads online vehicle auctions with network effects.", "High operating margins indicate cost efficiency.", "Recent revenue decline reflects cyclical challenges.", "Digital adoption supports long-term industry growth.", "Valuation aligns with strong cash flow generation." ], "target_price_6m": 34.5, "target_price_12m": 36 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 336, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:16.063Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2118, "outputTokens": 2801, "costUsd": 0.001769 } }, { "id": "cmnr134jo02ybp658yaft3gvg", "runId": "cmnr134jm02y8p658eu34o5o6", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearch_Copart\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"CPRT\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 33.17,\n \"target_price_6m\": 33.50,\n \"target_price_12m\": 34.50,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Trading near 52-week lows, but valuation remains stretched at ~34x forward earnings.\",\n \"Severe revenue contraction raises concerns over core auction volume and pricing power.\",\n \"Strong balance sheet with net cash position provides a buffer against macro headwinds.\",\n \"High operating margins (37%) demonstrate resilient unit economics despite top-line pressure.\",\n \"Near-term catalyst path is unclear; risk/reward is balanced at current levels.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Salvage vehicle volumes\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Used car pricing index\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"International expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Insurance total loss frequency\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Land acquisition costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Scrap metal prices\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Continued decline in used vehicle pricing compressing auction fees.\",\n \"Regulatory changes in international markets delaying expansion.\",\n \"Higher capital expenditures for land acquisition pressuring free cash flow.\",\n \"Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) reducing long-term accident frequency.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.05,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.35,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 25.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 25.00,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Volumes decline further and margins compress, leading to multiple contraction.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 34.50,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Volumes stabilize and margins hold, but high valuation limits upside.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 45.00,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Total loss frequency accelerates and international growth exceeds expectations.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a blend of DCF and historical EV/EBITDA multiples. Discrepancies in snapshot YoY revenue growth noted; assumed stabilization. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch_Copart", "risks": [ "Continued decline in used vehicle pricing compressing auction fees.", "Regulatory changes in international markets delaying expansion.", "Higher capital expenditures for land acquisition pressuring free cash flow.", "Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) reducing long-term accident frequency." ], "ticker": "CPRT", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Volumes stabilize and margins hold, but high valuation limits upside.", "target_price": 34.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Volumes decline further and margins compress, leading to multiple contraction.", "target_price": 25 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Total loss frequency accelerates and international growth exceeds expectations.", "target_price": 45 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 25, "ebit_margin_target": 0.35 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Salvage vehicle volumes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Used car pricing index", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "International expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Insurance total loss frequency", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Land acquisition costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Scrap metal prices", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a blend of DCF and historical EV/EBITDA multiples. Discrepancies in snapshot YoY revenue growth noted; assumed stabilization. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 33.17, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Trading near 52-week lows, but valuation remains stretched at ~34x forward earnings.", "Severe revenue contraction raises concerns over core auction volume and pricing power.", "Strong balance sheet with net cash position provides a buffer against macro headwinds.", "High operating margins (37%) demonstrate resilient unit economics despite top-line pressure.", "Near-term catalyst path is unclear; risk/reward is balanced at current levels." ], "target_price_6m": 33.5, "target_price_12m": 34.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 23348, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:16.063Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2453, "outputTokens": 788, "costUsd": 0.014362 } }, { "id": "cmnr134jo02y9p658hkbwoyng", "runId": "cmnr134jm02y8p658eu34o5o6", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"gpt-5\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"CPRT\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":33.17,\"target_price_6m\":34.1,\"target_price_12m\":35,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.61,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Dominant salvage-auction network supports durable pricing and high returns.\",\"Net cash and strong liquidity reduce financial risk.\",\"Insurance total-loss volume can support steady unit growth.\",\"Valuation still implies a premium despite the recent share-price reset.\",\"Snapshot fundamentals conflict on growth and profitability, lowering conviction.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Total-loss frequency and severity\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Insurance carrier penetration\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Fee and service pricing power\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Yard capacity and land expansion\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"International execution\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Rich valuation multiple\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Salvage price volatility\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory/title processing changes\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Fewer total-loss vehicles from safer cars or lower claims.\",\"Salvage pricing weakness hurts buyer activity and fees.\",\"Execution missteps in international growth or land acquisition.\",\"Multiple compression if growth remains moderate.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":10,\"ebit_margin_target\":35,\"wacc\":8.5,\"terminal_multiple\":35},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":27,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Claims volumes soften and premium multiple compresses further.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":35,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Core volume growth and margins stay solid, but valuation remains full.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":43,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Insurance volume, pricing and international execution all outperform.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Scenario-weighted fair value using snapshot quote fields plus normalized growth/margin assumptions; no sell-side targets used. Snapshot fundamentals appear internally inconsistent, so I weighted valuation conservatively. HOLD matches ~5.5% 12M upside, below BUY threshold; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "gpt-5", "risks": [ "Fewer total-loss vehicles from safer cars or lower claims.", "Salvage pricing weakness hurts buyer activity and fees.", "Execution missteps in international growth or land acquisition.", "Multiple compression if growth remains moderate." ], "ticker": "CPRT", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Core volume growth and margins stay solid, but valuation remains full.", "target_price": 35 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Claims volumes soften and premium multiple compresses further.", "target_price": 27 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Insurance volume, pricing and international execution all outperform.", "target_price": 43 } }, "confidence": 0.61, "assumptions": { "wacc": 8.5, "revenue_cagr_3y": 10, "terminal_multiple": 35, "ebit_margin_target": 35 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Total-loss frequency and severity", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Insurance carrier penetration", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fee and service pricing power", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Yard capacity and land expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "International execution", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Rich valuation multiple", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Salvage price volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory/title processing changes", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Scenario-weighted fair value using snapshot quote fields plus normalized growth/margin assumptions; no sell-side targets used. Snapshot fundamentals appear internally inconsistent, so I weighted valuation conservatively. HOLD matches ~5.5% 12M upside, below BUY threshold; not investment advice.", "current_price": 33.17, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Dominant salvage-auction network supports durable pricing and high returns.", "Net cash and strong liquidity reduce financial risk.", "Insurance total-loss volume can support steady unit growth.", "Valuation still implies a premium despite the recent share-price reset.", "Snapshot fundamentals conflict on growth and profitability, lowering conviction." ], "target_price_6m": 34.1, "target_price_12m": 35 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0060eacaf5f75e7b0069d757885d8081969b8e1daa302f585a", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 77641, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:16.063Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2387, "outputTokens": 3715, "costUsd": 0.056187 } }, { "id": "cmnr134jo02ycp658x2by03ia", "runId": "cmnr134jm02y8p658eu34o5o6", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Hybrid DCF-Comps Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"CPRT\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 33.17,\n \"target_price_6m\": 36.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 39.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Global leader in online vehicle auctions\",\n \"High 37% margins fuel robust FCF\",\n \"Recent revenue drop signals cyclical risk\",\n \"International growth offers long-term upside\",\n \"Premium 34x PE limits near-term safety\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Online auction dominance\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"International expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"High incremental margins\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Insurance salvage volumes\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Used car price volatility\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"EV transition tailwinds\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Macro auto market cycles\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Competitive pressures\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Sharp recent revenue decline\",\n \"High valuation multiple risk\",\n \"Cyclical insurance volume drops\",\n \"Geographic expansion execution\",\n \"Used vehicle market slowdown\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.11,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.36,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 27\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 28.5,\n \"prob\": 0.35,\n \"notes\": \"Extended cyclical weakness hits volumes and margins.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 39.0,\n \"prob\": 0.45,\n \"notes\": \"International growth resumes at stable margins.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 49.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated EV and global market share gains.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"3y DCF with given assumptions plus peer comps cross-check. 18% 12M upside supports BUY despite mixed growth. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "Hybrid DCF-Comps Model", "risks": [ "Sharp recent revenue decline", "High valuation multiple risk", "Cyclical insurance volume drops", "Geographic expansion execution", "Used vehicle market slowdown" ], "ticker": "CPRT", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.45, "notes": "International growth resumes at stable margins.", "target_price": 39 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.35, "notes": "Extended cyclical weakness hits volumes and margins.", "target_price": 28.5 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated EV and global market share gains.", "target_price": 49 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.11, "terminal_multiple": 27, "ebit_margin_target": 0.36 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Online auction dominance", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "International expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "High incremental margins", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Insurance salvage volumes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Used car price volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "EV transition tailwinds", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macro auto market cycles", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competitive pressures", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "3y DCF with given assumptions plus peer comps cross-check. 18% 12M upside supports BUY despite mixed growth. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 33.17, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Global leader in online vehicle auctions", "High 37% margins fuel robust FCF", "Recent revenue drop signals cyclical risk", "International growth offers long-term upside", "Premium 34x PE limits near-term safety" ], "target_price_6m": 36, "target_price_12m": 39 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "a29f4725-db2d-9664-a69a-afb4add683a5", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 18182, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:16.063Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2727, "outputTokens": 3105, "costUsd": 0.054756 } } ] } }