{ "run": { "id": "cmnr133z902x2p658gw2rlpex", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr133vt02wyp658bihmk9md", "ticker": "COST", "snapshotId": "cmnr133ym02x0p658xv0lwiyz", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:15.330Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr133ym02x0p658xv0lwiyz", "assetId": "cmnr133vt02wyp658bihmk9md", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z", "open": null, "price": 1030.27, "dayLow": 1000, "volume": 2247919, "dayHigh": 1030.46, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 1013.21, "week52Low": 844.06, "week52High": 1067.08 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 51.7171052631579, "beta": 0.760448007194469, "epsTTM": 18.24, "fcfTTM": 8032000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.09945750452079558, "revenueYoy": -0.747136083710284 }, "sector": "Retail-Variety Stores", "margins": { "net": 0.02396154626955594, "gross": 0.1078236838830933, "operating": 0.03102100155203238 }, "website": "https://www.costco.com/", "industry": "Retail", "pegRatio": 5.19991985645934, "ebitdaTTM": 13596000000, "forwardPe": 46.4918679152292, "marketCap": 475200000000, "totalCash": 17383000000, "totalDebt": 5760000000, "debtEquity": 0.198463859552873, "quickRatio": 0.520594656919265, "revenueTTM": 152703000000, "companyName": "COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW", "priceToBook": 14.360853456316, "currentRatio": 1.058140961165763, "dividendYield": 0.00521226389335758, "returnOnAssets": 0.04374753404512249, "returnOnEquity": 0.277705390207105, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Costco Wholesale Corporation is an American multinational corporation that operates a chain of membership-only big-box warehouse club retail stores. As of 2021, Costco is the third-largest retailer in the world, and as of August 2024, the world's largest retailer of beef, poultry, organic produce, and wine, with just under a third of American consumers regularly shopping at Costco warehouses. As of 2025, Costco is ranked 12th on the Fortune 500 rankings of the largest United States corporations by total revenue.", "enterpriseValue": 410446930200, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 341000, "sharesOutstanding": 443652540, "enterpriseToEbitda": 30.18880039717564, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 2.687877318716724, "operatingCashflowTTM": 7684000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:15.310Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr133zc02x4p658wbfadl3k", "runId": "cmnr133z902x2p658gw2rlpex", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"claude-sonnet-4-20250514\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"COST\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":1030.27,\"target_price_6m\":1055,\"target_price_12m\":1068,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.65,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Premium compounder with 27.8% ROE but 51.7x PE limits upside\",\"Membership model provides recurring, high-margin revenue stream\",\"EPS growth ~10% YoY is solid but PEG of 5.2 signals overvaluation\",\"Strong balance sheet with $17.4B cash vs $5.8B debt supports resilience\",\"Multiple compression risk offsets steady fundamental growth trajectory\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Membership fee revenue growth and renewal rates\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"E-commerce and omnichannel penetration expansion\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"International warehouse openings driving top-line\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Elevated PE multiple (~52x) creating valuation ceiling\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Consumer spending resilience in macro uncertainty\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Private-label Kirkland brand margin contribution\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Potential multiple compression toward sector average\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Food deflation or trade tariff impacts on COGS\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Significant PE multiple compression from 52x would drive meaningful downside\",\"Slowing same-store sales growth if consumer spending weakens\",\"Tariff escalation raising import costs and pressuring thin margins\",\"Rising competition from Walmart, Amazon, and BJ's in warehouse channel\",\"Membership growth saturation in core US market\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.075,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.032,\"wacc\":0.082,\"terminal_multiple\":48},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":880,\"prob\":0.20,\"notes\":\"Macro slowdown compresses PE to ~44x on flat EPS growth.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":1068,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Steady ~10% EPS growth, PE holds near 53x on quality premium.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":1200,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Membership fee hike and e-commerce acceleration drive EPS upside to ~$22.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Earnings-power valuation: TTM EPS $18.24 grown at ~10% to ~$20.10 in 12M, applied to range of PE multiples (44-55x) across scenarios. Weighted scenario price ~$1065 aligns with base target. 3.7% implied 12M return supports HOLD per rubric. Revenue YoY of -74.7% in snapshot appears anomalous (likely data issue); ignored in favor of historical ~7-9% revenue growth. Sell-side targets noted but not used as inputs. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z", "model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514", "risks": [ "Significant PE multiple compression from 52x would drive meaningful downside", "Slowing same-store sales growth if consumer spending weakens", "Tariff escalation raising import costs and pressuring thin margins", "Rising competition from Walmart, Amazon, and BJ's in warehouse channel", "Membership growth saturation in core US market" ], "ticker": "COST", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady ~10% EPS growth, PE holds near 53x on quality premium.", "target_price": 1068 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Macro slowdown compresses PE to ~44x on flat EPS growth.", "target_price": 880 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Membership fee hike and e-commerce acceleration drive EPS upside to ~$22.", "target_price": 1200 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.082, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.075, "terminal_multiple": 48, "ebit_margin_target": 0.032 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Membership fee revenue growth and renewal rates", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "E-commerce and omnichannel penetration expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "International warehouse openings driving top-line", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Elevated PE multiple (~52x) creating valuation ceiling", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Consumer spending resilience in macro uncertainty", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Private-label Kirkland brand margin contribution", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Potential multiple compression toward sector average", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Food deflation or trade tariff impacts on COGS", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Earnings-power valuation: TTM EPS $18.24 grown at ~10% to ~$20.10 in 12M, applied to range of PE multiples (44-55x) across scenarios. Weighted scenario price ~$1065 aligns with base target. 3.7% implied 12M return supports HOLD per rubric. Revenue YoY of -74.7% in snapshot appears anomalous (likely data issue); ignored in favor of historical ~7-9% revenue growth. Sell-side targets noted but not used as inputs. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 1030.27, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Premium compounder with 27.8% ROE but 51.7x PE limits upside", "Membership model provides recurring, high-margin revenue stream", "EPS growth ~10% YoY is solid but PEG of 5.2 signals overvaluation", "Strong balance sheet with $17.4B cash vs $5.8B debt supports resilience", "Multiple compression risk offsets steady fundamental growth trajectory" ], "target_price_6m": 1055, "target_price_12m": 1068 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 63168, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:15.330Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3648, "outputTokens": 1907, "costUsd": 0.065915 } }, { "id": "cmnr133zc02x7p658fl5uy5w8", "runId": "cmnr133z902x2p658gw2rlpex", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Analyst v1.0\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"COST\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 1030.27,\n \"target_price_6m\": 1070.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 1120.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Membership model ensures stable recurring revenue.\",\n \"High valuation limits near-term upside potential.\",\n \"EPS growth supports gradual price appreciation.\",\n \"Economic sensitivity poses consumer spending risk.\",\n \"International expansion offers growth opportunities.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Membership fee growth\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Same-store sales growth\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"E-commerce expansion\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Inflationary cost pressures\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competition from retailers\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"International market penetration\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Share buyback programs\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Low dividend yield\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Economic recession reducing consumer demand\",\n \"Intensifying competition eroding market share\",\n \"Supply chain disruptions increasing costs\",\n \"Regulatory changes impacting operations\",\n \"Valuation multiple contraction\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.06,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.04,\n \"wacc\": 0.07,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 26.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 1000.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Economic slowdown and margin pressure.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 1120.0, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Steady execution with moderate growth.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 1250.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong membership growth and expansion.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF with growth and margin assumptions. BUY due to ~9% upside. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Analyst v1.0", "risks": [ "Economic recession reducing consumer demand", "Intensifying competition eroding market share", "Supply chain disruptions increasing costs", "Regulatory changes impacting operations", "Valuation multiple contraction" ], "ticker": "COST", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady execution with moderate growth.", "target_price": 1120 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Economic slowdown and margin pressure.", "target_price": 1000 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong membership growth and expansion.", "target_price": 1250 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.07, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 26, "ebit_margin_target": 0.04 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Membership fee growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Same-store sales growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "E-commerce expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Inflationary cost pressures", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competition from retailers", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "International market penetration", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Share buyback programs", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Low dividend yield", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF with growth and margin assumptions. BUY due to ~9% upside. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 1030.27, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Membership model ensures stable recurring revenue.", "High valuation limits near-term upside potential.", "EPS growth supports gradual price appreciation.", "Economic sensitivity poses consumer spending risk.", "International expansion offers growth opportunities." ], "target_price_6m": 1070, "target_price_12m": 1120 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [ { "error": "sanity_error: buy_scenario_return_too_low: BUY requires >= 6% return from probability-weighted scenarios.", "attempt": 0, "rawOutputTruncated": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Analyst v1.0\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"COST\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 1030.27,\n \"target_price_6m\": 1050.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 1100.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Membership model ensures stable recurring revenue streams.\",\n \"High current valuation limits near-term upside potential.\",\n \"EPS growth supports gradual long-term price appreciation.\",\n \"Economic sensitivity poses risk to consumer spending.\",\n \"International expansion offers additional growth opportunities.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Membership fee increases\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Same-store sales growth\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"E-commerce expansion\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Inflationary cost pressures\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competition from major retailers\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"International market penetration\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Share buyback programs\", \"impact\": \"LOW\"…" } ], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 347, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:15.330Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2818, "outputTokens": 3672, "costUsd": 0.002331 } }, { "id": "cmnr133zc02x5p65811ub001b", "runId": "cmnr133z902x2p658gw2rlpex", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearch-Costco-Hold\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"COST\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 1030.27,\n \"target_price_6m\": 1040.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 1050.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.80,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Exceptional membership loyalty and renewal rates provide highly predictable, high-margin cash flows.\",\n \"Valuation is stretched at ~52x P/E, limiting near-term multiple expansion potential.\",\n \"Strong balance sheet with low debt provides defensive characteristics in uncertain macro environments.\",\n \"Consistent mid-to-high single-digit EPS growth driven by footprint expansion and fee increases.\",\n \"Current price fully reflects the premium quality, leaving little margin of safety for investors.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Membership fee increases\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Comparable store sales growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"E-commerce penetration\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Wage inflation and SG&A costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"International expansion pace\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Valuation multiple compression\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Reversion of premium valuation multiple if growth decelerates.\",\n \"Increased competition from Sam's Club and Amazon.\",\n \"Supply chain disruptions impacting inventory availability and costs.\",\n \"Consumer spending slowdown affecting discretionary big-ticket purchases.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.065,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.035,\n \"wacc\": 0.075,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 40.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 850.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Multiple compresses to 35x P/E amid consumer spending slowdown and margin pressure.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 1050.00,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Steady 10% EPS growth sustains a premium 45-50x multiple, yielding slight upside.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 1200.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated international growth and special dividends drive multiple expansion to 55x.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a blend of historical P/E multiples (45x forward) and DCF (7.5% WACC). The HOLD rating reflects limited upside (+1.9%) from the current $1030.27 price, as the ~52x trailing P/E fully prices in Costco's exceptional moat and predictable membership cash flows. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch-Costco-Hold", "risks": [ "Reversion of premium valuation multiple if growth decelerates.", "Increased competition from Sam's Club and Amazon.", "Supply chain disruptions impacting inventory availability and costs.", "Consumer spending slowdown affecting discretionary big-ticket purchases." ], "ticker": "COST", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady 10% EPS growth sustains a premium 45-50x multiple, yielding slight upside.", "target_price": 1050 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Multiple compresses to 35x P/E amid consumer spending slowdown and margin pressure.", "target_price": 850 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated international growth and special dividends drive multiple expansion to 55x.", "target_price": 1200 } }, "confidence": 0.8, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.075, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.065, "terminal_multiple": 40, "ebit_margin_target": 0.035 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Membership fee increases", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Comparable store sales growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "E-commerce penetration", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Wage inflation and SG&A costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "International expansion pace", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Valuation multiple compression", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a blend of historical P/E multiples (45x forward) and DCF (7.5% WACC). The HOLD rating reflects limited upside (+1.9%) from the current $1030.27 price, as the ~52x trailing P/E fully prices in Costco's exceptional moat and predictable membership cash flows. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 1030.27, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Exceptional membership loyalty and renewal rates provide highly predictable, high-margin cash flows.", "Valuation is stretched at ~52x P/E, limiting near-term multiple expansion potential.", "Strong balance sheet with low debt provides defensive characteristics in uncertain macro environments.", "Consistent mid-to-high single-digit EPS growth driven by footprint expansion and fee increases.", "Current price fully reflects the premium quality, leaving little margin of safety for investors." ], "target_price_6m": 1040, "target_price_12m": 1050 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 24216, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:15.330Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2530, "outputTokens": 877, "costUsd": 0.015584 } }, { "id": "cmnr133zc02x3p658rqagesou", "runId": "cmnr133z902x2p658gw2rlpex", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"COST\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":1030.27,\"target_price_6m\":960,\"target_price_12m\":980,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.66,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Membership model supports recurring traffic and renewal-driven pricing power.\",\"Scale and low prices sustain share gains in a cautious consumer backdrop.\",\"Balance sheet is strong with net cash and resilient cash generation.\",\"Margins remain structurally thin, limiting earnings leverage despite solid sales growth.\",\"Premium valuation already discounts much of Costco's execution quality.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Membership fee income\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Comparable sales ex-fuel\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Warehouse openings\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Renewal rates and traffic\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Kirkland/private-label mix\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"International expansion\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Labor and benefit inflation\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Multiple compression risk\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Discretionary basket softness.\",\"Tariffs or input inflation hurt value perception.\",\"Wage and shrink costs outpace productivity.\",\"Membership fee increase cadence disappoints.\",\"Premium multiple de-rates on higher yields.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.075,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.034,\"wacc\":0.07,\"terminal_multiple\":44},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":860,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Comps slow and the valuation premium compresses further.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":980,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Steady traffic and fees offset thin-margin limits and mild multiple compression.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":1100,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Stronger comps and sustained premium multiple drive modest upside.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"12M target uses a blended forward P/E and FCF cross-check, allowing modest multiple compression despite strong quality. Snapshot quote fields were used as provided; snapshot revenueYoy appears anomalous and was not used as a modeling input. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation", "risks": [ "Discretionary basket softness.", "Tariffs or input inflation hurt value perception.", "Wage and shrink costs outpace productivity.", "Membership fee increase cadence disappoints.", "Premium multiple de-rates on higher yields." ], "ticker": "COST", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady traffic and fees offset thin-margin limits and mild multiple compression.", "target_price": 980 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Comps slow and the valuation premium compresses further.", "target_price": 860 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Stronger comps and sustained premium multiple drive modest upside.", "target_price": 1100 } }, "confidence": 0.66, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.07, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.075, "terminal_multiple": 44, "ebit_margin_target": 0.034 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Membership fee income", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Comparable sales ex-fuel", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Warehouse openings", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Renewal rates and traffic", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Kirkland/private-label mix", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "International expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Labor and benefit inflation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Multiple compression risk", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "12M target uses a blended forward P/E and FCF cross-check, allowing modest multiple compression despite strong quality. Snapshot quote fields were used as provided; snapshot revenueYoy appears anomalous and was not used as a modeling input. not investment advice", "current_price": 1030.27, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Membership model supports recurring traffic and renewal-driven pricing power.", "Scale and low prices sustain share gains in a cautious consumer backdrop.", "Balance sheet is strong with net cash and resilient cash generation.", "Margins remain structurally thin, limiting earnings leverage despite solid sales growth.", "Premium valuation already discounts much of Costco's execution quality." ], "target_price_6m": 960, "target_price_12m": 980 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_08f212d1a111556e0069d7576ec260819791fde5b7d48c13a3", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 56115, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:15.330Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2418, "outputTokens": 2925, "costUsd": 0.045181 } }, { "id": "cmnr133zc02x6p6583gfew82v", "runId": "cmnr133z902x2p658gw2rlpex", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"DCF Valuation Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"COST\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 1030.27,\n \"target_price_6m\": 1050,\n \"target_price_12m\": 1090,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong membership model drives recurring high-margin revenue.\",\n \"International expansion supports long-term revenue growth.\",\n \"Premium valuation with PE over 50x limits upside.\",\n \"Consistent execution and customer loyalty mitigate risks.\",\n \"Economic sensitivity and competition pose challenges.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Membership renewal rates\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"New warehouse openings\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Same store sales growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Private label penetration\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Multiple contraction risk\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Inflation on operating costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"E-commerce channel growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Consumer spending slowdown\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Intensifying retail competition from Walmart and Amazon\",\n \"Potential economic recession reducing consumer spending\",\n \"Wage inflation and labor cost pressures\",\n \"Supply chain disruptions\",\n \"Failure to sustain membership growth\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.08,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.032,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 35\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 850,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Recession leads to lower growth and de-rating.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 1090,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Steady growth with slight multiple compression.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 1300,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Strong execution and sustained premium valuation.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"3-stage DCF using revenue CAGR, EBIT margin, WACC and terminal multiple assumptions; base implies ~6% upside. High PE and mixed growth evidence support HOLD. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:01.000Z", "model": "DCF Valuation Model", "risks": [ "Intensifying retail competition from Walmart and Amazon", "Potential economic recession reducing consumer spending", "Wage inflation and labor cost pressures", "Supply chain disruptions", "Failure to sustain membership growth" ], "ticker": "COST", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady growth with slight multiple compression.", "target_price": 1090 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Recession leads to lower growth and de-rating.", "target_price": 850 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong execution and sustained premium valuation.", "target_price": 1300 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 35, "ebit_margin_target": 0.032 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Membership renewal rates", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "New warehouse openings", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Same store sales growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Private label penetration", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Multiple contraction risk", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Inflation on operating costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "E-commerce channel growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Consumer spending slowdown", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "3-stage DCF using revenue CAGR, EBIT margin, WACC and terminal multiple assumptions; base implies ~6% upside. High PE and mixed growth evidence support HOLD. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 1030.27, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong membership model drives recurring high-margin revenue.", "International expansion supports long-term revenue growth.", "Premium valuation with PE over 50x limits upside.", "Consistent execution and customer loyalty mitigate risks.", "Economic sensitivity and competition pose challenges." ], "target_price_6m": 1050, "target_price_12m": 1090 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "4c970144-50dd-9462-a839-400c776c28e9", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 18742, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:15.330Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2758, "outputTokens": 3414, "costUsd": 0.059484 } } ] } }