{ "run": { "id": "cmnr132ka02uip658cjnajtn2", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr130s802typ65872hoq3sp", "ticker": "CNC", "snapshotId": "cmnr1310o02u2p658ri78bq38", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:13.491Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr1310o02u2p658ri78bq38", "assetId": "cmnr130s802typ65872hoq3sp", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:02:29.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:02:29.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:02:29.000Z", "open": null, "price": 37.28, "dayLow": 36.53, "volume": 4989962, "dayHigh": 37.38, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 36.31, "week52Low": 25.08, "week52High": 66.03 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": -3.04138950480414, "beta": 0.421489981981229, "epsTTM": -13.53, "fcfTTM": 3843000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": -3.137440758293839, "revenueYoy": 0.1944306467734913 }, "sector": "Hospital & Medical Service Plans", "margins": { "net": -0.03426482592913948, "gross": 0.07295009164326384, "operating": -0.03913706443779296 }, "website": "https://www.centene.com/", "industry": "Managed healthcare", "pegRatio": 0.00969385476606757, "ebitdaTTM": -4273000000, "forwardPe": 13.671096345515, "marketCap": 26700000000, "totalCash": 17888000000, "totalDebt": 17543000000, "debtEquity": 0.879216157971232, "quickRatio": 1.047116851972967, "revenueTTM": 194777000000, "companyName": "CENTENE CORP", "priceToBook": 1.01175326086957, "currentRatio": 1.100119904076739, "dividendYield": 0.0788006010371697, "returnOnAssets": -0.08696105385226784, "returnOnEquity": -0.334486042199168, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Centene Corporation is an American for-profit healthcare company that serves as an intermediary for government-sponsored and privately insured healthcare programs. Based in Clayton, Missouri, Centene ranked No. 23 on the 2025 Fortune 500.", "enterpriseValue": 19946723400, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 61100, "sharesOutstanding": 491771000, "enterpriseToEbitda": -4.668084109524924, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 0.1024080019714853, "operatingCashflowTTM": 5088000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:11.497Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr132kd02ukp6584mt30syu", "runId": "cmnr132ka02uip658cjnajtn2", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:02:29.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"CNC\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":37.28,\"target_price_6m\":42.0,\"target_price_12m\":44.5,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.58,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Trading near book value with strong positive FCF despite reported losses\",\"Negative EPS driven by large non-cash impairments, not core operations\",\"Forward PE ~13.7x implies market expects meaningful earnings normalization\",\"FCF yield of ~14% signals deep value if margins stabilize\",\"Revenue growth of ~19% YoY demonstrates strong top-line franchise\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Medicaid redetermination cycle and membership stabilization\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Goodwill impairment charges depressing reported earnings\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating margin recovery toward positive territory\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Strong FCF generation ($3.8B TTM) supporting buybacks and deleveraging\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory and reimbursement rate environment for Medicaid managed care\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Share repurchase program reducing share count\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Debt leverage at 0.88x D/E limiting financial flexibility\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Medicare Advantage star ratings and margin pressure\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Sustained operating margin deterioration beyond impairment charges\",\"Adverse Medicaid policy changes or rate cuts from state budgets\",\"Inability to pass through rising medical costs (MLR pressure)\",\"Further goodwill impairments from Magellan or other acquisitions\",\"Regulatory action or compliance issues in government-sponsored plans\",\"Competitive losses in Medicaid and exchange membership\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.06,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.025,\"wacc\":0.10,\"terminal_multiple\":12.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":28.0,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Margins fail to recover; continued impairments and membership losses pressure valuation toward tangible book.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":44.5,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Earnings normalize to ~$3.30 EPS as impairments end; market re-rates to ~13.5x forward PE.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":58.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Full margin recovery to 2-3% operating margin; buybacks accelerate EPS growth; re-rating to ~15x.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Earnings-power valuation anchored on forward PE normalization. TTM EPS is distorted by large non-cash impairments (likely goodwill); core FCF of $3.8B ($7.80/share) supports normalized EPS of $3-4. Applied 12-14x forward PE for managed care. Revenue CAGR reflects Medicaid rate increases and modest membership growth. Bear case uses ~0.7x book. Sell-side targets noted but not used as inputs. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:02:29.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Sustained operating margin deterioration beyond impairment charges", "Adverse Medicaid policy changes or rate cuts from state budgets", "Inability to pass through rising medical costs (MLR pressure)", "Further goodwill impairments from Magellan or other acquisitions", "Regulatory action or compliance issues in government-sponsored plans", "Competitive losses in Medicaid and exchange membership" ], "ticker": "CNC", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Earnings normalize to ~$3.30 EPS as impairments end; market re-rates to ~13.5x forward PE.", "target_price": 44.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Margins fail to recover; continued impairments and membership losses pressure valuation toward tangible book.", "target_price": 28 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Full margin recovery to 2-3% operating margin; buybacks accelerate EPS growth; re-rating to ~15x.", "target_price": 58 } }, "confidence": 0.58, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.1, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 12, "ebit_margin_target": 0.025 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Medicaid redetermination cycle and membership stabilization", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Goodwill impairment charges depressing reported earnings", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operating margin recovery toward positive territory", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Strong FCF generation ($3.8B TTM) supporting buybacks and deleveraging", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory and reimbursement rate environment for Medicaid managed care", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Share repurchase program reducing share count", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt leverage at 0.88x D/E limiting financial flexibility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Medicare Advantage star ratings and margin pressure", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Earnings-power valuation anchored on forward PE normalization. TTM EPS is distorted by large non-cash impairments (likely goodwill); core FCF of $3.8B ($7.80/share) supports normalized EPS of $3-4. Applied 12-14x forward PE for managed care. Revenue CAGR reflects Medicaid rate increases and modest membership growth. Bear case uses ~0.7x book. Sell-side targets noted but not used as inputs. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 37.28, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Trading near book value with strong positive FCF despite reported losses", "Negative EPS driven by large non-cash impairments, not core operations", "Forward PE ~13.7x implies market expects meaningful earnings normalization", "FCF yield of ~14% signals deep value if margins stabilize", "Revenue growth of ~19% YoY demonstrates strong top-line franchise" ], "target_price_6m": 42, "target_price_12m": 44.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 51384, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:13.491Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3573, "outputTokens": 2178, "costUsd": 0.072315 } }, { "id": "cmnr132kd02unp658f98vrxve", "runId": "cmnr132ka02uip658cjnajtn2", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"DCF and Forward Earnings Analysis\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:02:29.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"CNC\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 37.28,\n \"target_price_6m\": 39.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 42.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Revenue growth driven by government healthcare programs.\",\n \"Expected profitability improvement from cost management.\",\n \"Strong free cash flow supports financial stability.\",\n \"Valuation attractive relative to forward earnings.\",\n \"Regulatory risks balanced by market opportunities.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Medicaid and Medicare expansion\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Cost control and margin normalization\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Free cash flow generation\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt reduction and balance sheet strength\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory policy changes\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competitive pressure in managed care\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Earnings turnaround execution\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Market sentiment on healthcare stocks\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Regulatory scrutiny and healthcare policy shifts\",\n \"Execution risk in achieving margin targets\",\n \"Economic downturn affecting membership growth\",\n \"Integration challenges from acquisitions\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.08,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.05,\n \"wacc\": 0.07,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 15\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 30.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Earnings stagnate, margins remain negative.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 42.0, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"EPS reaches $3.0 with P/E of 14.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 49.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong earnings growth and multiple expansion.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on forward earnings and DCF, assuming margin recovery. Expected return 12.6% supports BUY. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:02:29.000Z", "model": "DCF and Forward Earnings Analysis", "risks": [ "Regulatory scrutiny and healthcare policy shifts", "Execution risk in achieving margin targets", "Economic downturn affecting membership growth", "Integration challenges from acquisitions" ], "ticker": "CNC", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "EPS reaches $3.0 with P/E of 14.", "target_price": 42 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Earnings stagnate, margins remain negative.", "target_price": 30 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong earnings growth and multiple expansion.", "target_price": 49 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.07, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 15, "ebit_margin_target": 0.05 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Medicaid and Medicare expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cost control and margin normalization", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Free cash flow generation", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt reduction and balance sheet strength", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory policy changes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competitive pressure in managed care", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Earnings turnaround execution", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Market sentiment on healthcare stocks", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on forward earnings and DCF, assuming margin recovery. Expected return 12.6% supports BUY. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 37.28, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Revenue growth driven by government healthcare programs.", "Expected profitability improvement from cost management.", "Strong free cash flow supports financial stability.", "Valuation attractive relative to forward earnings.", "Regulatory risks balanced by market opportunities." ], "target_price_6m": 39, "target_price_12m": 42 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 360, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:13.491Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2084, "outputTokens": 3720, "costUsd": 0.002146 } }, { "id": "cmnr132kd02ulp6589ako2imh", "runId": "cmnr132ka02uip658cjnajtn2", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearch_Centene_CNC\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:02:29.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"CNC\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 37.28,\n \"target_price_6m\": 40.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 43.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Massive TTM EPS loss appears driven by non-cash impairments, masking strong $3.8B free cash flow.\",\n \"Trading near 1.0x book value provides a strong margin of safety for value investors.\",\n \"Medicaid redetermination headwinds are largely priced in following the steep drop from 52-week highs.\",\n \"Forward P/E of 13.6x suggests a return to profitability, supporting a recovery trajectory.\",\n \"High dividend yield pays investors to wait, though sustainability requires careful monitoring.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Medicaid Medical Loss Ratio (MLR)\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"ACA Marketplace enrollment growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Medicare Advantage rate adjustments\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"SG&A cost reduction initiatives\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Non-cash impairment roll-offs\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"State Medicaid contract procurements\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rates impacting investment income\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged elevation in Medicaid utilization rates squeezing margins.\",\n \"Regulatory changes to ACA subsidies impacting exchange enrollment.\",\n \"Medicare Advantage star rating downgrades reducing bonus payments.\",\n \"Potential dividend cut if statutory capital requirements tighten.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.04,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.035,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 11.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 28.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Sustained elevated MLR in Medicaid and further Medicare Advantage rate cuts compress margins.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 43.00,\n \"prob\": 0.50,\n \"notes\": \"Medicaid margins stabilize, ACA growth offsets MA headwinds, and one-off charges roll off.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 52.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Stronger ACA margins, successful cost-cutting, and multiple expansion to 12x normalized EPS.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a blend of 11x normalized forward P/E and FCF yield analysis. TTM losses are treated as one-off non-cash impairments. Target reflects a partial recovery to historical multiples. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:02:29.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch_Centene_CNC", "risks": [ "Prolonged elevation in Medicaid utilization rates squeezing margins.", "Regulatory changes to ACA subsidies impacting exchange enrollment.", "Medicare Advantage star rating downgrades reducing bonus payments.", "Potential dividend cut if statutory capital requirements tighten." ], "ticker": "CNC", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Medicaid margins stabilize, ACA growth offsets MA headwinds, and one-off charges roll off.", "target_price": 43 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Sustained elevated MLR in Medicaid and further Medicare Advantage rate cuts compress margins.", "target_price": 28 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Stronger ACA margins, successful cost-cutting, and multiple expansion to 12x normalized EPS.", "target_price": 52 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 11, "ebit_margin_target": 0.035 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Medicaid Medical Loss Ratio (MLR)", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "ACA Marketplace enrollment growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Medicare Advantage rate adjustments", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "SG&A cost reduction initiatives", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Non-cash impairment roll-offs", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "State Medicaid contract procurements", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rates impacting investment income", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a blend of 11x normalized forward P/E and FCF yield analysis. TTM losses are treated as one-off non-cash impairments. Target reflects a partial recovery to historical multiples. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 37.28, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Massive TTM EPS loss appears driven by non-cash impairments, masking strong $3.8B free cash flow.", "Trading near 1.0x book value provides a strong margin of safety for value investors.", "Medicaid redetermination headwinds are largely priced in following the steep drop from 52-week highs.", "Forward P/E of 13.6x suggests a return to profitability, supporting a recovery trajectory.", "High dividend yield pays investors to wait, though sustainability requires careful monitoring." ], "target_price_6m": 40, "target_price_12m": 43 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 33784, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:13.491Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2454, "outputTokens": 894, "costUsd": 0.015636 } }, { "id": "cmnr132kc02ujp6589i23yeik", "runId": "cmnr132ka02uip658cjnajtn2", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"gpt-5\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:02:29.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"CNC\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":37.28,\"target_price_6m\":39.8,\"target_price_12m\":41.5,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.6,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Medicaid scale and contract breadth support resilient premium growth.\",\"Stock trades near book value despite solid operating and free cash flow.\",\"Forward P/E suggests market prices in sustained earnings pressure.\",\"Cash nearly offsets debt, limiting balance-sheet stress.\",\"Utilization, rate adequacy, and policy uncertainty restrain upside.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Medicaid premium growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"ACA Marketplace membership\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"State rate adequacy\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Medical cost inflation\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Redetermination churn\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"SG&A discipline\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Reserve development\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Share repurchases/capital return\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Higher-than-priced medical utilization\",\"Adverse Medicaid or ACA policy changes\",\"Reserve inadequacy or unfavorable audits\",\"Loss or repricing of major contracts\",\"Data noise from one-time charges obscures earnings power\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":6,\"ebit_margin_target\":1.6,\"wacc\":9.5,\"terminal_multiple\":1.1},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":29,\"prob\":0.3,\"notes\":\"Higher utilization and weak rates keep valuation near 0.8x book.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":41.5,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Margins normalize modestly and shares rerate to about 1.1x book.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":52,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Better rates and buybacks restore confidence toward prior cycle multiples.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"12M target uses a blended 1.1x P/B and normalized earnings-power cross-check, not sell-side targets. Snapshot quote fields were kept authoritative; some snapshot fundamentals appear distorted by one-offs or data quirks, so cash flow, leverage and forward P/E were weighted more heavily. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:02:29.000Z", "model": "gpt-5", "risks": [ "Higher-than-priced medical utilization", "Adverse Medicaid or ACA policy changes", "Reserve inadequacy or unfavorable audits", "Loss or repricing of major contracts", "Data noise from one-time charges obscures earnings power" ], "ticker": "CNC", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Margins normalize modestly and shares rerate to about 1.1x book.", "target_price": 41.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Higher utilization and weak rates keep valuation near 0.8x book.", "target_price": 29 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Better rates and buybacks restore confidence toward prior cycle multiples.", "target_price": 52 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 9.5, "revenue_cagr_3y": 6, "terminal_multiple": 1.1, "ebit_margin_target": 1.6 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Medicaid premium growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "ACA Marketplace membership", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "State rate adequacy", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Medical cost inflation", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Redetermination churn", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "SG&A discipline", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Reserve development", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Share repurchases/capital return", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "12M target uses a blended 1.1x P/B and normalized earnings-power cross-check, not sell-side targets. Snapshot quote fields were kept authoritative; some snapshot fundamentals appear distorted by one-offs or data quirks, so cash flow, leverage and forward P/E were weighted more heavily. not investment advice", "current_price": 37.28, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Medicaid scale and contract breadth support resilient premium growth.", "Stock trades near book value despite solid operating and free cash flow.", "Forward P/E suggests market prices in sustained earnings pressure.", "Cash nearly offsets debt, limiting balance-sheet stress.", "Utilization, rate adequacy, and policy uncertainty restrain upside." ], "target_price_6m": 39.8, "target_price_12m": 41.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_029760b8621b4dce0069d7575ad03c8194bf4e4e7b1a3d943e", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 58259, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:13.491Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2354, "outputTokens": 2653, "costUsd": 0.041261 } }, { "id": "cmnr132kd02ump658srnz7xs1", "runId": "cmnr132ka02uip658cjnajtn2", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:02:29.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"CNC\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 37.28,\n \"target_price_6m\": 40.5,\n \"target_price_12m\": 44,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.61,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong FCF despite recent losses signals recovery\",\n \"Attractive forward P/E with expected EPS normalization\",\n \"Dominant position in Medicaid managed care market\",\n \"Policy and reimbursement risks may limit upside\",\n \"High leverage increases financial vulnerability\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"FCF yield\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Medicaid redeterminations\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Revenue CAGR\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"EBIT margin expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory environment\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Debt burden\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Market share gains\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Higher than expected medical costs\",\n \"Changes in government funding for healthcare\",\n \"Integration risks from past acquisitions\",\n \"Increased competition in key markets\",\n \"Potential for further asset impairments\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.07,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.04,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 12\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 30,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Prolonged margin compression from cost pressures reduces valuation.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 44,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Normalized profitability and steady growth support moderate appreciation.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 56,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Outperformance in cost management boosts earnings and multiple.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF using assumed 7% revenue CAGR, 4% EBIT margin target, 9% WACC and 12x terminal multiple. 12M target implies ~18% upside consistent with BUY on FCF yield and recovery. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:02:29.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Higher than expected medical costs", "Changes in government funding for healthcare", "Integration risks from past acquisitions", "Increased competition in key markets", "Potential for further asset impairments" ], "ticker": "CNC", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Normalized profitability and steady growth support moderate appreciation.", "target_price": 44 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Prolonged margin compression from cost pressures reduces valuation.", "target_price": 30 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Outperformance in cost management boosts earnings and multiple.", "target_price": 56 } }, "confidence": 0.61, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.07, "terminal_multiple": 12, "ebit_margin_target": 0.04 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "FCF yield", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Medicaid redeterminations", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Revenue CAGR", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "EBIT margin expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory environment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt burden", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Market share gains", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "DCF using assumed 7% revenue CAGR, 4% EBIT margin target, 9% WACC and 12x terminal multiple. 12M target implies ~18% upside consistent with BUY on FCF yield and recovery. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 37.28, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong FCF despite recent losses signals recovery", "Attractive forward P/E with expected EPS normalization", "Dominant position in Medicaid managed care market", "Policy and reimbursement risks may limit upside", "High leverage increases financial vulnerability" ], "target_price_6m": 40.5, "target_price_12m": 44 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "56a4622a-299a-9a1e-bc0d-4d0c37b38a47", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 16946, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:13.491Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2694, "outputTokens": 3699, "costUsd": 0.063567 } } ] } }