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              "target_price": 37
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            "bull": {
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              "driver": "Competitive intensity in fast casual",
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              "driver": "Economic sensitivity of consumer spending",
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              "driver": "Operational efficiency improvements",
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          "method_notes": "DCF with growth and margin assumptions. Target prices imply moderate upside. Not investment advice.",
          "current_price": 33.79,
          "recommendation": "BUY",
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            "Revenue growth from new stores and digital sales.",
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        "rawOutput": "{\n  \"model\": \"AI Equity Analyst v1.0\",\n  \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:02:10.000Z\",\n  \"ticker\": \"CMG\",\n  \"currency\": \"USD\",\n  \"current_price\": 33.79,\n  \"target_price_6m\": 34.00,\n  \"target_price_12m\": 35.00,\n  \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n  \"confidence\": 0.65,\n  \"thesis_bullets\": [\n    \"Premium valuation is challenged by slowing revenue (5.4%) and EPS (2.7%) growth.\",\n    \"Stellar ROE of 54% and strong FCF generation provide a solid fundamental floor.\",\n    \"Consumer fatigue limits further aggressive menu pricing without impacting transaction volumes.\",\n    \"Store expansion continues, but unit economics face pressure from rising labor costs.\",\n    \"Current multiple of 32x P/E leaves little room for execution missteps or margin compression.\"\n  ],\n  \"key_drivers\": [\n    {\n      \"driver\": \"Comparable Restaurant Sales\",\n      \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n      \"direction\": \"POS\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"driver\": \"Wage Inflation\",\n      \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n      \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"driver\": \"Menu Pricing Power\",\n      \"impact\": \"MED\",\n      \"direction\": \"POS\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"driver\": \"New Store Openings\",\n      \"impact\": \"MED\",\n      \"direction\": \"POS\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"driver\": \"Commodity Costs (Beef/Avocado)\",\n      \"impact\": \"MED\",\n      \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"driver\": \"Digital Sales Mix\",\n      \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n      \"direction\": \"POS\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"risks\": [\n    \"Continued deceleration in same-store sales growth.\",\n    \"Inability to pass on rising food and labor costs to price-sensitive consumers.\",\n    \"Food safety incidents could severely damage brand reputation and sales.\",\n    \"Multiple compression if EPS growth remains in the low single digits.\"\n  ],\n  \"assumptions\": {\n    \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.06,\n    \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.165,\n    \"wacc\": 0.085,\n    \"terminal_multiple\": 25.0\n  },\n  \"scenarios\": {\n    \"bear\": {\n      \"target_price\": 28.00,\n      \"prob\": 0.3,\n      \"notes\": \"Growth stalls completely and P/E multiple compresses to 20x amid margin pressures.\"\n    },\n    \"base\": {\n      \"target_price\": 35.00,\n      \"prob\": 0.5,\n      \"notes\": \"Mid-single-digit growth continues with stable margins, supporting a ~28x forward P/E.\"\n    },\n    \"bull\": {\n      \"target_price\": 42.00,\n      \"prob\": 0.2,\n      \"notes\": \"Re-acceleration of traffic and successful margin expansion drives multiple re-rating.\"\n    }\n  },\n  \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a blended DCF and historical P/E multiple compression. Target implies a 28x forward P/E, reflecting slower growth. Not investment advice.\"\n}",
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          "ticker": "CMG",
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              "direction": "POS"
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            {
              "driver": "Menu Pricing Power",
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          "method_notes": "Valuation based on a blended DCF and historical P/E multiple compression. Target implies a 28x forward P/E, reflecting slower growth. Not investment advice.",
          "current_price": 33.79,
          "recommendation": "HOLD",
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            "Premium valuation is challenged by slowing revenue (5.4%) and EPS (2.7%) growth.",
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        "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"OpenAI o3\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:02:10.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"CMG\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":33.79,\"target_price_6m\":34.9,\"target_price_12m\":35.5,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.63,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Unit growth remains strong, supporting durable high-single-digit revenue expansion.\",\"Margins are best-in-class, but inflation and labor limit further easy gains.\",\"Traffic and ticket trends look steadier than most restaurants, yet growth has slowed.\",\"Balance sheet is clean, supporting resilience and continued store investment.\",\"Valuation already reflects quality, leaving only modest 12-month upside.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"New restaurant openings\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Comparable sales growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Restaurant margin discipline\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Digital and loyalty mix\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Labor cost inflation\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Food input inflation\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Consumer spending softness\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Valuation multiple compression\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Traffic weakens as consumers trade down.\",\"Food and wage inflation compress margins.\",\"Execution risk as store base scales further.\",\"Any food-safety event could hurt demand and valuation.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.1,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.17,\"wacc\":0.085,\"terminal_multiple\":24},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":28.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Sales soften and margins stall, driving multiple compression.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":35.5,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Unit growth and modest comps offset cost pressure.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":41.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Traffic accelerates and margins expand with sustained premium valuation.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Base case uses modest 3-year sales CAGR, 17% EBIT margin, 8.5% WACC, and ~24x terminal EV/EBIT. Cross-checked against snapshot PE and EV metrics; no sell-side targets used. HOLD fits ~5% 12M upside with mixed growth and valuation signals; not investment advice.\"}",
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