{ "run": { "id": "cmnr12zi702t4p658e52lfawf", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr12zhs02t0p658xrfsyfyx", "ticker": "CME", "snapshotId": "cmnr12zhy02t2p65886u3sjkn", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:09.531Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr12zhy02t2p65886u3sjkn", "assetId": "cmnr12zhs02t0p658xrfsyfyx", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "open": null, "price": 302.81, "dayLow": 298.66, "volume": 3037381, "dayHigh": 304.86, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 310.58, "week52Low": 248.53, "week52High": 329.16 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 24.4257602862254, "beta": 0.307760379931778, "epsTTM": 11.18, "fcfTTM": 4193100000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.1537667698658411, "revenueYoy": 0.06370206032528017 }, "sector": "Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services", "margins": { "net": 0.624513081618256, "gross": null, "operating": 0.6486366285311168 }, "website": "https://www.cmegroup.com/", "industry": null, "pegRatio": 1.58849407499009, "ebitdaTTM": 5343700000, "forwardPe": 23.2013593882753, "marketCap": 98900000000, "totalCash": 4416900000, "totalDebt": null, "debtEquity": null, "quickRatio": 0.03232193800620974, "revenueTTM": 6520600000, "companyName": "CME GROUP INC.", "priceToBook": 3.41868532800523, "currentRatio": 1.031582683860616, "dividendYield": 0.0400457473168465, "returnOnAssets": 0.02052269834022261, "returnOnEquity": 0.141749222018783, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "CME Group Inc. (formerly Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc.) is an American financial services company based in Chicago, Illinois. It operates financial derivatives exchanges, including the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), and the Commodity Exchange (COMEX). The company owns 27% of S&P Dow Jones Indices. It is the world's largest operator of financial derivatives exchanges. Its exchanges are platforms for trading in agricultural products, currencies, energy, interest rates, metals, futures contracts, options, stock indexes, and cryptocurrencies futures.", "enterpriseValue": null, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 3760, "sharesOutstanding": 66643583, "enterpriseToEbitda": null, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": null, "operatingCashflowTTM": 4277100000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:09.527Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr12zi902t6p658ml3n00nh", "runId": "cmnr12zi702t4p658e52lfawf", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"CME\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":302.81,\"target_price_6m\":314,\"target_price_12m\":325,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.65,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Dominant global derivatives exchange with deep competitive moat and network effects\",\"Exceptional 65% operating margin reflects scalable, capital-light business model\",\"Volatile macro environment drives higher trading volumes across asset classes\",\"4% dividend yield plus share buybacks provide attractive total return floor\",\"Moderate 24x P/E is reasonable but limits valuation re-rating upside\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Interest rate volatility driving rates product volumes\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Geopolitical and macro uncertainty boosting hedging demand\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Crypto and alternative asset class expansion\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Data and technology services revenue growth\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating leverage on incremental volume\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Fee compression risk from competitive pressure\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory changes affecting derivatives markets\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Potential volume normalization if volatility subsides\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Sustained decline in market volatility reduces trading volumes across asset classes\",\"Regulatory intervention compressing clearing fees or mandating interoperability\",\"Technology disruption from blockchain-native or decentralized exchange competitors\",\"Concentration risk in interest rate products as Fed reaches terminal rate\",\"Macro slowdown reducing speculative and hedging activity in commodity markets\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.07,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.65,\"wacc\":0.085,\"terminal_multiple\":24.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":275,\"prob\":0.20,\"notes\":\"Volume normalization and multiple compression to 22x on flattish EPS growth.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":325,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Mid-single-digit revenue growth, stable margins, 24x forward P/E on ~$13.50 EPS.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":377,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Elevated volatility sustains strong volumes; multiple expansion to 26x on $14.50 EPS.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"P/E-based valuation anchored on forward EPS estimates of $13.00-$14.50 range. CME's low-beta, high-margin exchange model justifies premium multiple. 12M base target of $325 implies ~7.3% price return, crossing BUY threshold. Weighted scenario EV ~$327 supports target. Dividend yield (~4%) adds to total return but is excluded per price-only rubric. Confidence moderate due to volume sensitivity to macro regime. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Sustained decline in market volatility reduces trading volumes across asset classes", "Regulatory intervention compressing clearing fees or mandating interoperability", "Technology disruption from blockchain-native or decentralized exchange competitors", "Concentration risk in interest rate products as Fed reaches terminal rate", "Macro slowdown reducing speculative and hedging activity in commodity markets" ], "ticker": "CME", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Mid-single-digit revenue growth, stable margins, 24x forward P/E on ~$13.50 EPS.", "target_price": 325 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Volume normalization and multiple compression to 22x on flattish EPS growth.", "target_price": 275 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Elevated volatility sustains strong volumes; multiple expansion to 26x on $14.50 EPS.", "target_price": 377 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.07, "terminal_multiple": 24.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.65 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Interest rate volatility driving rates product volumes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Geopolitical and macro uncertainty boosting hedging demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Crypto and alternative asset class expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Data and technology services revenue growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating leverage on incremental volume", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fee compression risk from competitive pressure", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory changes affecting derivatives markets", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Potential volume normalization if volatility subsides", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "P/E-based valuation anchored on forward EPS estimates of $13.00-$14.50 range. CME's low-beta, high-margin exchange model justifies premium multiple. 12M base target of $325 implies ~7.3% price return, crossing BUY threshold. Weighted scenario EV ~$327 supports target. Dividend yield (~4%) adds to total return but is excluded per price-only rubric. Confidence moderate due to volume sensitivity to macro regime. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 302.81, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Dominant global derivatives exchange with deep competitive moat and network effects", "Exceptional 65% operating margin reflects scalable, capital-light business model", "Volatile macro environment drives higher trading volumes across asset classes", "4% dividend yield plus share buybacks provide attractive total return floor", "Moderate 24x P/E is reasonable but limits valuation re-rating upside" ], "target_price_6m": 314, "target_price_12m": 325 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 39495, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:09.531Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3631, "outputTokens": 1856, "costUsd": 0.064555 } }, { "id": "cmnr12zi902t9p658x70iaodi", "runId": "cmnr12zi702t4p658e52lfawf", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model v1.0\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"CME\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 302.81,\n \"target_price_6m\": 298,\n \"target_price_12m\": 308,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Leading global derivatives exchange with high barriers to entry.\",\n \"Strong cash flow generation and dividend yield.\",\n \"Exposure to volatile trading volumes affecting revenue.\",\n \"Valuation at premium multiples limiting upside.\",\n \"Mixed growth prospects with stable margins.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Interest Rate Volatility\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory Changes\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competition from Other Exchanges\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Global Economic Growth\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Technology Investments\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Dividend Policy\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\"Decline in trading volumes.\", \"Increased regulatory scrutiny.\", \"Cybersecurity threats.\", \"Economic downturn.\"],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.065,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.65,\n \"wacc\": 0.07,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 23\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 280, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Lower trading volumes and margin compression.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 308, \"prob\": 0.5, \"notes\": \"Steady growth in derivatives market.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 340, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Acceleration in crypto and new product adoption.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on earnings growth and terminal multiple. HOLD due to limited upside/downside and mixed evidence. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model v1.0", "risks": [ "Decline in trading volumes.", "Increased regulatory scrutiny.", "Cybersecurity threats.", "Economic downturn." ], "ticker": "CME", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady growth in derivatives market.", "target_price": 308 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Lower trading volumes and margin compression.", "target_price": 280 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Acceleration in crypto and new product adoption.", "target_price": 340 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.07, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.065, "terminal_multiple": 23, "ebit_margin_target": 0.65 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Interest Rate Volatility", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory Changes", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competition from Other Exchanges", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Global Economic Growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Technology Investments", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend Policy", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on earnings growth and terminal multiple. HOLD due to limited upside/downside and mixed evidence. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 302.81, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Leading global derivatives exchange with high barriers to entry.", "Strong cash flow generation and dividend yield.", "Exposure to volatile trading volumes affecting revenue.", "Valuation at premium multiples limiting upside.", "Mixed growth prospects with stable margins." ], "target_price_6m": 298, "target_price_12m": 308 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 346, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:09.531Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2140, "outputTokens": 3627, "costUsd": 0.002123 } }, { "id": "cmnr12zi902t7p658t05hhzn9", "runId": "cmnr12zi702t4p658e52lfawf", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"CME_Equity_Model_v1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"CME\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 302.81,\n \"target_price_6m\": 315.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 325.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.8,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Wide economic moat driven by network effects in global derivatives trading.\",\n \"Exceptional 64 percent operating margins highlight pricing power and scalable infrastructure.\",\n \"Attractive 4.0 percent dividend yield provides a strong floor for total shareholder return.\",\n \"Interest rate and macro volatility continue to drive robust hedging volumes.\",\n \"Valuation at 23x forward PE is fair given the defensive high cash flow profile.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate volatility\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Energy market hedging demand\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"New product launches\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory changes in clearing\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Competition from alternative exchanges\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Global macroeconomic uncertainty\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operating leverage on volume\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Sustained periods of low market volatility depressing trading volumes.\",\n \"Regulatory crackdowns on crypto or commodity derivatives.\",\n \"Migration of trading volumes to over the counter markets.\",\n \"Potential fee compression from institutional pushback.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.055,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.65,\n \"wacc\": 0.075,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 22.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 270.00,\n \"prob\": 0.15,\n \"notes\": \"Low volatility environment suppresses volumes leading to multiple contraction.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 325.00,\n \"prob\": 0.65,\n \"notes\": \"Steady volume growth and maintained 65 percent margins support a 24x PE.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 380.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Surge in macro volatility drives record volumes and multiple expansion to 27x.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Target price based on a blend of DCF and historical P/E multiples. Probability-weighted scenarios yield an 8.2% expected return, supporting a BUY rating. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "CME_Equity_Model_v1", "risks": [ "Sustained periods of low market volatility depressing trading volumes.", "Regulatory crackdowns on crypto or commodity derivatives.", "Migration of trading volumes to over the counter markets.", "Potential fee compression from institutional pushback." ], "ticker": "CME", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.65, "notes": "Steady volume growth and maintained 65 percent margins support a 24x PE.", "target_price": 325 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.15, "notes": "Low volatility environment suppresses volumes leading to multiple contraction.", "target_price": 270 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Surge in macro volatility drives record volumes and multiple expansion to 27x.", "target_price": 380 } }, "confidence": 0.8, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.075, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.055, "terminal_multiple": 22, "ebit_margin_target": 0.65 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Interest rate volatility", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Energy market hedging demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "New product launches", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory changes in clearing", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competition from alternative exchanges", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Global macroeconomic uncertainty", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating leverage on volume", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Target price based on a blend of DCF and historical P/E multiples. Probability-weighted scenarios yield an 8.2% expected return, supporting a BUY rating. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 302.81, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Wide economic moat driven by network effects in global derivatives trading.", "Exceptional 64 percent operating margins highlight pricing power and scalable infrastructure.", "Attractive 4.0 percent dividend yield provides a strong floor for total shareholder return.", "Interest rate and macro volatility continue to drive robust hedging volumes.", "Valuation at 23x forward PE is fair given the defensive high cash flow profile." ], "target_price_6m": 315, "target_price_12m": 325 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [ { "error": "sanity_error: buy_scenario_return_too_low: BUY requires >= 6% return from probability-weighted scenarios.", "attempt": 0, "rawOutputTruncated": "{\"model\":\"CME_Equity_Model_v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"CME\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":302.81,\"target_price_6m\":315.00,\"target_price_12m\":325.00,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.8,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Wide economic moat driven by network effects in global derivatives trading.\",\"Exceptional 64 percent operating margins highlight pricing power and scalable infrastructure.\",\"Attractive 4.0 percent dividend yield provides a strong floor for total shareholder return.\",\"Interest rate and macro volatility continue to drive robust hedging volumes.\",\"Valuation at 23x forward PE is fair given the defensive high cash flow profile.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Interest rate volatility\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Energy market hedging demand\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"New product launches\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory changes in clearing\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Competition from alternative exchanges\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Global macroeconomic uncertainty\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating leverage on volume\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"…" } ], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 18323, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:09.531Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3017, "outputTokens": 836, "costUsd": 0.016066 } }, { "id": "cmnr12zi902t5p658c4i5d0rq", "runId": "cmnr12zi702t4p658e52lfawf", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"gpt-5\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"CME\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":302.81,\"target_price_6m\":311,\"target_price_12m\":317,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.66,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"CME's derivatives franchises support durable pricing power and exceptional margins.\",\"Rate and macro volatility should sustain clearing volumes above pre-2022 levels.\",\"Recurring market data and index income diversify transaction-driven earnings.\",\"Cash generation and special dividends support downside resilience.\",\"Valuation already reflects quality, limiting upside unless volatility stays elevated.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Interest-rate futures volume\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Treasury and FX volatility\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Pricing and fee mix\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Data and index services growth\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Expense discipline and operating leverage\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Capital returns and special dividends\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Lower market volatility\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory or competitive shifts\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Volume normalization if rates volatility fades.\",\"Regulatory fee scrutiny or market-structure changes.\",\"Customer migration to OTC or rival venues in some products.\",\"Lower collateral yields or weaker treasury balances.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.055,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.66,\"wacc\":0.075,\"terminal_multiple\":24.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":270,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Volumes and collateral income soften as macro volatility normalizes.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":317,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Mid-single-digit growth and margins stay near current elevated levels.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":350,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Sustained volatility and stronger product mix drive higher earnings power.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"12M target uses earnings-power and FCF framing anchored to snapshot fundamentals, not sell-side targets. HOLD fits ~4.7% price upside versus current price: quality and cash generation are strong, but valuation looks near fair and volumes remain cyclical. Snapshot quote fields kept authoritative; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "gpt-5", "risks": [ "Volume normalization if rates volatility fades.", "Regulatory fee scrutiny or market-structure changes.", "Customer migration to OTC or rival venues in some products.", "Lower collateral yields or weaker treasury balances." ], "ticker": "CME", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Mid-single-digit growth and margins stay near current elevated levels.", "target_price": 317 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Volumes and collateral income soften as macro volatility normalizes.", "target_price": 270 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Sustained volatility and stronger product mix drive higher earnings power.", "target_price": 350 } }, "confidence": 0.66, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.075, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.055, "terminal_multiple": 24.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.66 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Interest-rate futures volume", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Treasury and FX volatility", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Pricing and fee mix", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Data and index services growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Expense discipline and operating leverage", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Capital returns and special dividends", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Lower market volatility", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory or competitive shifts", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "12M target uses earnings-power and FCF framing anchored to snapshot fundamentals, not sell-side targets. HOLD fits ~4.7% price upside versus current price: quality and cash generation are strong, but valuation looks near fair and volumes remain cyclical. Snapshot quote fields kept authoritative; not investment advice.", "current_price": 302.81, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "CME's derivatives franchises support durable pricing power and exceptional margins.", "Rate and macro volatility should sustain clearing volumes above pre-2022 levels.", "Recurring market data and index income diversify transaction-driven earnings.", "Cash generation and special dividends support downside resilience.", "Valuation already reflects quality, limiting upside unless volatility stays elevated." ], "target_price_6m": 311, "target_price_12m": 317 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_001c2448a582194c0069d7573c1ea08190baddff7248bf9f14", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 37366, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:09.531Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2404, "outputTokens": 2068, "costUsd": 0.033159 } }, { "id": "cmnr12zi902t8p658p6hfy5jp", "runId": "cmnr12zi702t4p658e52lfawf", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"CME\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 302.81,\n \"target_price_6m\": 308,\n \"target_price_12m\": 315,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Oligopolistic position in futures drives pricing power\",\n \"High 65% margins generate robust free cash flow\",\n \"Benefits from volatility in rates and crypto products\",\n \"Regulatory scrutiny and competition pose material risks\",\n \"Current 24x PE appears fair with balanced risk/reward\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Futures trading volumes\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate volatility\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Crypto derivatives growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory oversight\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Competition from ICE/Nasdaq\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Economic slowdown\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Margin stability\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"New product innovation\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Tighter derivatives regulation\",\n \"Prolonged low market volatility\",\n \"Increased cross-exchange competition\",\n \"Macroeconomic downturn reducing volumes\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.08,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.65,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 22\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 265,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Lower volumes and tighter regulation compress multiples.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 315,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Stable volumes, margins and modest product growth.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 365,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Sustained high volatility drives record volumes.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF valuation with 8% rev CAGR, 65% EBIT margin, 8.5% WACC, 22x terminal EV/EBIT. Limited upside at current levels supports HOLD. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Tighter derivatives regulation", "Prolonged low market volatility", "Increased cross-exchange competition", "Macroeconomic downturn reducing volumes" ], "ticker": "CME", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Stable volumes, margins and modest product growth.", "target_price": 315 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Lower volumes and tighter regulation compress multiples.", "target_price": 265 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Sustained high volatility drives record volumes.", "target_price": 365 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 22, "ebit_margin_target": 0.65 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Futures trading volumes", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate volatility", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Crypto derivatives growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory oversight", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competition from ICE/Nasdaq", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Economic slowdown", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Margin stability", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "New product innovation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "DCF valuation with 8% rev CAGR, 65% EBIT margin, 8.5% WACC, 22x terminal EV/EBIT. Limited upside at current levels supports HOLD. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 302.81, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Oligopolistic position in futures drives pricing power", "High 65% margins generate robust free cash flow", "Benefits from volatility in rates and crypto products", "Regulatory scrutiny and competition pose material risks", "Current 24x PE appears fair with balanced risk/reward" ], "target_price_6m": 308, "target_price_12m": 315 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "0683cc68-1f67-9a5e-99e8-8f187aa002df", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 15854, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:09.531Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2741, "outputTokens": 2824, "costUsd": 0.050583 } } ] } }