{ "run": { "id": "cmnr12sh502pup658lw0see52", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr12sge02pmp658e8bqv4gk", "ticker": "CHRW", "snapshotId": "cmnr12sgr02pqp658abr610ae", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:00.422Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr12sgr02pqp658abr610ae", "assetId": "cmnr12sge02pmp658e8bqv4gk", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "open": null, "price": 172.42, "dayLow": 166.35, "volume": 1566016, "dayHigh": 172.74, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 166.1, "week52Low": 84.68, "week52High": 203.34 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 32.9426229508197, "beta": 0.659896786310119, "epsTTM": 4.88, "fcfTTM": 822528000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.2544987146529562, "revenueYoy": -0.08418599177340694 }, "sector": "Arrangement of Transportation of Freight & Cargo", "margins": { "net": 0.03616642465611061, "gross": null, "operating": 0.04897262406898936 }, "website": "https://www.chrobinson.com", "industry": "Transportation", "pegRatio": 1.29441215433019, "ebitdaTTM": 712442000, "forwardPe": 27.2474576271186, "marketCap": 11317245827, "totalCash": 160871000, "totalDebt": 1089438000, "debtEquity": 0.590274304891455, "quickRatio": 1.376697737950824, "revenueTTM": 16232763000, "companyName": "C. H. ROBINSON WORLDWIDE, INC.", "priceToBook": 10.473348327172, "currentRatio": 1.527837497584214, "dividendYield": 0.0156388191833373, "returnOnAssets": 0.1160610479914423, "returnOnEquity": 0.318089537165016, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. is an American transportation company that includes third-party logistics (3PL). The company offers freight transportation, transportation management, brokerage and warehousing. It offers truckload, less than truckload, air freight, intermodal, and ocean transportation.", "enterpriseValue": 20258670920, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 12803, "sharesOutstanding": 118620833, "enterpriseToEbitda": 28.43553709635311, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 1.248011254769136, "operatingCashflowTTM": 914519000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:00.411Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr12shb02pwp6581t257unt", "runId": "cmnr12sh502pup658lw0see52", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"CHRW\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":172.42,\"target_price_6m\":167.0,\"target_price_12m\":165.0,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.58,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Freight brokerage leader but valuation elevated at 33x TTM P/E\",\"EPS growing 25% YoY driven by cost optimization despite revenue decline\",\"Revenue fell 8.4% YoY signaling lingering freight market weakness\",\"EV/EBITDA of 28.4x prices in significant freight cycle recovery already\",\"Dividend yield of 1.6% and strong ROE of 32% provide some support\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Freight cycle recovery pace and truckload pricing trends\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Elevated valuation multiple vs historical 18-22x EV/EBITDA\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Cost restructuring and headcount optimization benefits\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Revenue decline trend persisting across trucking and ocean modes\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Technology investments improving net revenue per shipment\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Competitive pressure from digital freight brokers\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest expense burden from $1.1B debt on margins\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Share repurchase program supporting EPS growth\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Prolonged freight recession keeps revenue and volumes depressed\",\"Multiple compression from current 33x P/E toward historical average\",\"Digital disruptors erode market share in truckload brokerage\",\"Trade policy disruptions or tariff escalation reduce freight demand\",\"Rising interest rates increase cost of debt servicing\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.04,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.055,\"wacc\":0.09,\"terminal_multiple\":20.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":135.0,\"prob\":0.20,\"notes\":\"Freight recession extends; P/E compresses to 22x on ~$6 forward EPS.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":165.0,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Gradual freight recovery; EPS reaches ~$6.50 but multiple normalizes to 25x.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":205.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Strong freight cycle inflection; EPS reaches $7.50+ with 27x multiple.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended P/E and EV/EBITDA valuation anchored on forward EPS of ~$6.33 (implied by snapshot forward P/E). Current 33x TTM P/E and 28x EV/EBITDA are well above CHRW 10-year historical averages (~18-22x EV/EBITDA). Base case applies normalized 25x P/E to projected $6.50 EPS yielding ~$165, implying -4.3% return — within HOLD range. Freight cycle timing is key swing factor. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Prolonged freight recession keeps revenue and volumes depressed", "Multiple compression from current 33x P/E toward historical average", "Digital disruptors erode market share in truckload brokerage", "Trade policy disruptions or tariff escalation reduce freight demand", "Rising interest rates increase cost of debt servicing" ], "ticker": "CHRW", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Gradual freight recovery; EPS reaches ~$6.50 but multiple normalizes to 25x.", "target_price": 165 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Freight recession extends; P/E compresses to 22x on ~$6 forward EPS.", "target_price": 135 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong freight cycle inflection; EPS reaches $7.50+ with 27x multiple.", "target_price": 205 } }, "confidence": 0.58, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 20, "ebit_margin_target": 0.055 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Freight cycle recovery pace and truckload pricing trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Elevated valuation multiple vs historical 18-22x EV/EBITDA", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Cost restructuring and headcount optimization benefits", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Revenue decline trend persisting across trucking and ocean modes", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Technology investments improving net revenue per shipment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive pressure from digital freight brokers", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Interest expense burden from $1.1B debt on margins", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Share repurchase program supporting EPS growth", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Blended P/E and EV/EBITDA valuation anchored on forward EPS of ~$6.33 (implied by snapshot forward P/E). Current 33x TTM P/E and 28x EV/EBITDA are well above CHRW 10-year historical averages (~18-22x EV/EBITDA). Base case applies normalized 25x P/E to projected $6.50 EPS yielding ~$165, implying -4.3% return — within HOLD range. Freight cycle timing is key swing factor. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 172.42, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Freight brokerage leader but valuation elevated at 33x TTM P/E", "EPS growing 25% YoY driven by cost optimization despite revenue decline", "Revenue fell 8.4% YoY signaling lingering freight market weakness", "EV/EBITDA of 28.4x prices in significant freight cycle recovery already", "Dividend yield of 1.6% and strong ROE of 32% provide some support" ], "target_price_6m": 167, "target_price_12m": 165 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 39763, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:00.422Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3584, "outputTokens": 1879, "costUsd": 0.064895 } }, { "id": "cmnr12shb02pzp658mh4l4pb7", "runId": "cmnr12sh502pup658lw0see52", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Analyst\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"CHRW\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 172.42,\n \"target_price_6m\": 185,\n \"target_price_12m\": 201.5,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\"Modest 2% annual revenue growth expected.\", \"Target EBIT margin improvement to 5.5%.\", \"Stable free cash flow supports capital returns.\", \"Valuation reasonable with EV/EBITDA ~25x.\", \"Mixed evidence: past revenue decline but EPS growth.\"],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Economic growth\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Fuel costs\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Technology adoption\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competition\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Interest rates\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Company efficiency initiatives\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\"Economic recession reducing freight demand.\", \"Rising operational costs compressing margins.\", \"Increased competition from digital platforms.\", \"Regulatory changes in transportation sector.\"],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.02,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.055,\n \"wacc\": 0.075,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 18\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 160, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Economic slowdown and margin pressure.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 201.5, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Modest growth and margin improvement.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 230, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong economic recovery and efficiency gains.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF valuation based on assumed 2% revenue CAGR and 5.5% EBIT margin, yielding ~17% upside. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Analyst", "risks": [ "Economic recession reducing freight demand.", "Rising operational costs compressing margins.", "Increased competition from digital platforms.", "Regulatory changes in transportation sector." ], "ticker": "CHRW", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Modest growth and margin improvement.", "target_price": 201.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Economic slowdown and margin pressure.", "target_price": 160 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong economic recovery and efficiency gains.", "target_price": 230 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.075, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.02, "terminal_multiple": 18, "ebit_margin_target": 0.055 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Economic growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fuel costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Technology adoption", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competition", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Interest rates", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Company efficiency initiatives", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "DCF valuation based on assumed 2% revenue CAGR and 5.5% EBIT margin, yielding ~17% upside. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 172.42, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Modest 2% annual revenue growth expected.", "Target EBIT margin improvement to 5.5%.", "Stable free cash flow supports capital returns.", "Valuation reasonable with EV/EBITDA ~25x.", "Mixed evidence: past revenue decline but EPS growth." ], "target_price_6m": 185, "target_price_12m": 201.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 371, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:00.422Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2096, "outputTokens": 4793, "costUsd": 0.0026 } }, { "id": "cmnr12shb02pxp658ba62b26z", "runId": "cmnr12sh502pup658lw0see52", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"CHRW_DCF_Multiple_Blend\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"CHRW\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 172.42,\n \"target_price_6m\": 160.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 150.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"SELL\",\n \"confidence\": 0.70,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Valuation is stretched at 27x forward P/E, well above historical logistics averages.\",\n \"Revenue declined 8.4% YoY, indicating volume and pricing headwinds in the freight market.\",\n \"Recent EPS growth relies heavily on margin expansion, which may be peaking.\",\n \"Carrier capacity normalization threatens to compress net revenue margins in the medium term.\",\n \"Strong FCF generation provides a floor, but upside is capped by cyclical macro pressures.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Freight volume growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Purchased transportation costs\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Net revenue margin\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Global supply chain normalization\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Technology investments in routing\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Macroeconomic industrial production\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Unexpected surge in freight demand boosting volumes.\",\n \"Prolonged carrier capacity constraints keeping pricing high.\",\n \"Accretive M&A utilizing strong free cash flow.\",\n \"Better-than-expected yield from digital brokerage initiatives.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.02,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.045,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 18.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 110.00,\n \"prob\": 0.30,\n \"notes\": \"Freight recession deepens, margins revert to historical lows, multiple compresses to 15x.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 150.00,\n \"prob\": 0.50,\n \"notes\": \"Margins normalize slightly, revenue remains flat, multiple compresses to 20x.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 190.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Freight super-cycle resumes, margins expand further, market sustains premium 25x multiple.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a blend of DCF and historical P/E mean reversion. Target implies a 20x forward P/E, reflecting normalized margins. Recommendation is SELL due to >10% downside risk from current stretched multiples. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "CHRW_DCF_Multiple_Blend", "risks": [ "Unexpected surge in freight demand boosting volumes.", "Prolonged carrier capacity constraints keeping pricing high.", "Accretive M&A utilizing strong free cash flow.", "Better-than-expected yield from digital brokerage initiatives." ], "ticker": "CHRW", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Margins normalize slightly, revenue remains flat, multiple compresses to 20x.", "target_price": 150 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Freight recession deepens, margins revert to historical lows, multiple compresses to 15x.", "target_price": 110 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Freight super-cycle resumes, margins expand further, market sustains premium 25x multiple.", "target_price": 190 } }, "confidence": 0.7, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.02, "terminal_multiple": 18, "ebit_margin_target": 0.045 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Freight volume growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Purchased transportation costs", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Net revenue margin", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Global supply chain normalization", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Technology investments in routing", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macroeconomic industrial production", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a blend of DCF and historical P/E mean reversion. Target implies a 20x forward P/E, reflecting normalized margins. Recommendation is SELL due to >10% downside risk from current stretched multiples. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 172.42, "recommendation": "SELL", "thesis_bullets": [ "Valuation is stretched at 27x forward P/E, well above historical logistics averages.", "Revenue declined 8.4% YoY, indicating volume and pricing headwinds in the freight market.", "Recent EPS growth relies heavily on margin expansion, which may be peaking.", "Carrier capacity normalization threatens to compress net revenue margins in the medium term.", "Strong FCF generation provides a floor, but upside is capped by cyclical macro pressures." ], "target_price_6m": 160, "target_price_12m": 150 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 30136, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:00.422Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2445, "outputTokens": 838, "costUsd": 0.014946 } }, { "id": "cmnr12shb02pvp658t1ms8owb", "runId": "cmnr12sh502pup658lw0see52", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"gpt-5\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"CHRW\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":172.42,\"target_price_6m\":170,\"target_price_12m\":181.5,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.63,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Cost cuts and productivity are lifting earnings despite lower revenue.\",\"Freight brokerage appears past trough, but pricing remains fiercely competitive.\",\"Asset-light model supports cash generation, dividends, and balance-sheet flexibility.\",\"Current valuation already reflects substantial margin recovery versus recent depressed levels.\",\"Mixed macro signals limit upside, supporting a neutral stance.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Truckload rate cycle recovery\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Shipment volume stabilization\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Gross profit per shipment\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating cost productivity\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Competitive brokerage pricing\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Managed services expansion\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Technology automation adoption\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Industrial demand weakness\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Freight recession lasts longer than expected.\",\"Competitive pricing compresses net revenue margins.\",\"Large customers insource more transportation procurement.\",\"Technology execution falls short of productivity goals.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.04,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.058,\"wacc\":0.086,\"terminal_multiple\":28},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":145,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Freight demand stays soft and valuation de-rates.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":181.5,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Margins improve modestly as volumes and pricing normalize.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":210,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Cycle recovery accelerates and productivity gains exceed plan.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Valuation blends a 12M normalized EPS multiple with an EV/EBIT cross-check, using snapshot quote/fundamentals as baseline and explicit cycle assumptions. Snapshot values were not overridden; no sell-side price targets used. HOLD fits ~5% 12M upside with mixed freight-cycle and valuation signals; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "gpt-5", "risks": [ "Freight recession lasts longer than expected.", "Competitive pricing compresses net revenue margins.", "Large customers insource more transportation procurement.", "Technology execution falls short of productivity goals." ], "ticker": "CHRW", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Margins improve modestly as volumes and pricing normalize.", "target_price": 181.5 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Freight demand stays soft and valuation de-rates.", "target_price": 145 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Cycle recovery accelerates and productivity gains exceed plan.", "target_price": 210 } }, "confidence": 0.63, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.086, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 28, "ebit_margin_target": 0.058 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Truckload rate cycle recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Shipment volume stabilization", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Gross profit per shipment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating cost productivity", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive brokerage pricing", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Managed services expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Technology automation adoption", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Industrial demand weakness", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation blends a 12M normalized EPS multiple with an EV/EBIT cross-check, using snapshot quote/fundamentals as baseline and explicit cycle assumptions. Snapshot values were not overridden; no sell-side price targets used. HOLD fits ~5% 12M upside with mixed freight-cycle and valuation signals; not investment advice.", "current_price": 172.42, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Cost cuts and productivity are lifting earnings despite lower revenue.", "Freight brokerage appears past trough, but pricing remains fiercely competitive.", "Asset-light model supports cash generation, dividends, and balance-sheet flexibility.", "Current valuation already reflects substantial margin recovery versus recent depressed levels.", "Mixed macro signals limit upside, supporting a neutral stance." ], "target_price_6m": 170, "target_price_12m": 181.5 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0175b2e593647bfe0069d7571acee481978e5726b957476583", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 58640, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:20:00.422Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2365, "outputTokens": 3345, "costUsd": 0.050969 } }, { "id": "cmnr12shb02pyp658nqampdau", "runId": "cmnr12sh502pup658lw0see52", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"CHRW\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 172.42,\n \"target_price_6m\": 182,\n \"target_price_12m\": 195,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.61,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Diversified 3PL model supports stable client relationships\",\n \"Margin gains from efficiency and automation initiatives\",\n \"EPS growth persists amid soft freight market conditions\",\n \"Freight cycle recovery expected to lift revenue growth\",\n \"Premium 28x EV/EBITDA limits upside if execution slips\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Freight volume recovery\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operating margin expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Broader economic growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Industry competition intensity\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Fuel and cost volatility\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Tech platform investments\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Customer retention trends\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged freight market weakness\",\n \"Loss of key customer accounts\",\n \"Failure to sustain margin gains\",\n \"Rising competitive pressures from digital brokers\",\n \"Macroeconomic slowdown in trade\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.045,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.055,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 21\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 145,\n \"prob\": 0.35,\n \"notes\": \"Extended freight downturn erodes margins further.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 195,\n \"prob\": 0.45,\n \"notes\": \"Gradual cycle recovery with modest efficiency gains.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 235,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Strong freight rebound and market share expansion.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation bridges assumed 4.5% 3Y revenue CAGR, 5.5% EBIT margin, 8.5% WACC and 21x terminal multiple to 12M target. Moderate base-case upside supports BUY; not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Prolonged freight market weakness", "Loss of key customer accounts", "Failure to sustain margin gains", "Rising competitive pressures from digital brokers", "Macroeconomic slowdown in trade" ], "ticker": "CHRW", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.45, "notes": "Gradual cycle recovery with modest efficiency gains.", "target_price": 195 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.35, "notes": "Extended freight downturn erodes margins further.", "target_price": 145 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong freight rebound and market share expansion.", "target_price": 235 } }, "confidence": 0.61, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.045, "terminal_multiple": 21, "ebit_margin_target": 0.055 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Freight volume recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating margin expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Broader economic growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Industry competition intensity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Fuel and cost volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Tech platform investments", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Customer retention trends", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation bridges assumed 4.5% 3Y revenue CAGR, 5.5% EBIT margin, 8.5% WACC and 21x terminal multiple to 12M target. 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