{ "run": { "id": "cmnr12qhp02m4p658evkdjh1s", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr12p9s02lup658ics300zy", "ticker": "CBOE", "snapshotId": "cmnr12q0d02lyp658xtddfarv", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:57.850Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr12q0d02lyp658xtddfarv", "assetId": "cmnr12p9s02lup658ics300zy", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "open": null, "price": 296.95, "dayLow": 284.365, "volume": 841736, "dayHigh": 297.25, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 295.64, "week52Low": 200.88, "week52High": 305.68 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 24.9385474860335, "beta": 0.61954588549926, "epsTTM": 7.16, "fcfTTM": 916600000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.4447513812154697, "revenueYoy": 0.1513493711075833 }, "sector": "Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services", "margins": { "net": 0.2333375758347122, "gross": 0.5152730049637266, "operating": 0.3112086886428238 }, "website": "https://www.cboe.com/", "industry": null, "pegRatio": 0.110614525139665, "ebitdaTTM": 1268200000, "forwardPe": 21.0814639905549, "marketCap": 24400000000, "totalCash": 2216500000, "totalDebt": 1442900000, "debtEquity": 0.361154328732748, "quickRatio": 1.11924819032299, "revenueTTM": 4714200000, "companyName": "Cboe Global Markets, Inc.", "priceToBook": 4.7406895859473, "currentRatio": 1.871650510096093, "dividendYield": 0.0118306248348477, "returnOnAssets": 0.1182122016485229, "returnOnEquity": 0.191066499372647, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (formerly CBOE Holdings) is an American financial exchange operator headquartered in Chicago. It owns and operates a portfolio of exchanges and trading venues across equities, options, futures, and digital assets.", "enterpriseValue": 19787648000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 1661, "sharesOutstanding": 104667696, "enterpriseToEbitda": 15.60293959943227, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 4.197456196173264, "operatingCashflowTTM": 1752600000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:57.229Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr12qhs02m6p6585rs58ri5", "runId": "cmnr12qhp02m4p658evkdjh1s", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"CBOE\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":296.95,\"target_price_6m\":310,\"target_price_12m\":320,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Exchange model benefits from secular growth in options and derivatives volumes\",\"Low beta (0.62) offers defensive characteristics amid macro uncertainty\",\"Strong FCF generation ($917M TTM) supports buybacks and dividends\",\"Forward P/E of 21x reasonable relative to exchange peer group at 18-25x\",\"EPS growth of 44.5% YoY unlikely to sustain, but mid-teens growth achievable\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Options and derivatives trading volume growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Market volatility supporting transaction revenue\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Data and access solutions recurring revenue expansion\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating leverage driving margin expansion from 31% operating margin\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Capital return via dividends and share repurchases\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Global expansion in European and Asian derivatives\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Competitive pressure from alternative exchanges and dark pools\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Potential regulatory changes in market structure\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Reversion of elevated volatility reducing transaction fees\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Prolonged low-volatility environment compresses trading volumes and revenue\",\"Regulatory changes to market structure reduce exchange fee capture\",\"Competition from newer electronic venues and internalization erodes share\",\"Macro downturn reducing retail and institutional trading activity\",\"Integration risks from international or digital asset expansion\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.08,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.33,\"wacc\":0.09,\"terminal_multiple\":16},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":260,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Volume normalization and margin compression in low-vol regime.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":320,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Mid-single-digit revenue growth, modest margin expansion, steady buybacks.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":370,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Elevated volatility sustains volumes; data revenue accelerates; multiple expansion.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended valuation: forward P/E (21-22x on estimated forward EPS ~$14.5) and EV/EBITDA (15-17x). Exchange comps (ICE, CME, NDAQ) used as reference. PEG of 0.11 signals attractive growth-adjusted valuation but 44.5% EPS growth will normalize. 12M base return ~7.8% supports BUY. Confidence moderate due to vol-dependent revenue mix. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Prolonged low-volatility environment compresses trading volumes and revenue", "Regulatory changes to market structure reduce exchange fee capture", "Competition from newer electronic venues and internalization erodes share", "Macro downturn reducing retail and institutional trading activity", "Integration risks from international or digital asset expansion" ], "ticker": "CBOE", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Mid-single-digit revenue growth, modest margin expansion, steady buybacks.", "target_price": 320 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Volume normalization and margin compression in low-vol regime.", "target_price": 260 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Elevated volatility sustains volumes; data revenue accelerates; multiple expansion.", "target_price": 370 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 16, "ebit_margin_target": 0.33 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Options and derivatives trading volume growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Market volatility supporting transaction revenue", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Data and access solutions recurring revenue expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating leverage driving margin expansion from 31% operating margin", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Capital return via dividends and share repurchases", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Global expansion in European and Asian derivatives", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive pressure from alternative exchanges and dark pools", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Potential regulatory changes in market structure", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Reversion of elevated volatility reducing transaction fees", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended valuation: forward P/E (21-22x on estimated forward EPS ~$14.5) and EV/EBITDA (15-17x). Exchange comps (ICE, CME, NDAQ) used as reference. PEG of 0.11 signals attractive growth-adjusted valuation but 44.5% EPS growth will normalize. 12M base return ~7.8% supports BUY. Confidence moderate due to vol-dependent revenue mix. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 296.95, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Exchange model benefits from secular growth in options and derivatives volumes", "Low beta (0.62) offers defensive characteristics amid macro uncertainty", "Strong FCF generation ($917M TTM) supports buybacks and dividends", "Forward P/E of 21x reasonable relative to exchange peer group at 18-25x", "EPS growth of 44.5% YoY unlikely to sustain, but mid-teens growth achievable" ], "target_price_6m": 310, "target_price_12m": 320 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 39562, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:57.850Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3577, "outputTokens": 1854, "costUsd": 0.064235 } }, { "id": "cmnr12qhs02m9p658f8vrimcl", "runId": "cmnr12qhp02m4p658evkdjh1s", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI_Equity_Model_v1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"CBOE\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 296.95,\n \"target_price_6m\": 300.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 310.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"CBOE is a leading global exchange operator.\",\n \"Revenue growth driven by market volatility and new products.\",\n \"High operating margins support strong cash flow generation.\",\n \"Expansion into digital assets offers growth potential.\",\n \"Regulatory and competitive risks temper upside.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Options trading volume\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Digital assets adoption\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Interest rate volatility\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory environment\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competitive landscape\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Cost efficiency initiatives\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Global market expansion\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Regulatory changes impacting fee structures\",\n \"Decline in overall market trading volumes\",\n \"Technological failures or cybersecurity incidents\",\n \"Increased competition from fintech and other exchanges\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.12,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.32,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 16.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 270.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Adverse regulatory changes and low market volatility.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 310.0, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Steady growth with stable multiples and market position.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 350.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong product innovation and high trading activity.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on DCF with assumed growth and multiples; snapshot data inconsistencies noted. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI_Equity_Model_v1", "risks": [ "Regulatory changes impacting fee structures", "Decline in overall market trading volumes", "Technological failures or cybersecurity incidents", "Increased competition from fintech and other exchanges" ], "ticker": "CBOE", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady growth with stable multiples and market position.", "target_price": 310 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Adverse regulatory changes and low market volatility.", "target_price": 270 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong product innovation and high trading activity.", "target_price": 350 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.12, "terminal_multiple": 16, "ebit_margin_target": 0.32 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Options trading volume", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Digital assets adoption", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competitive landscape", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Cost efficiency initiatives", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Global market expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on DCF with assumed growth and multiples; snapshot data inconsistencies noted. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 296.95, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "CBOE is a leading global exchange operator.", "Revenue growth driven by market volatility and new products.", "High operating margins support strong cash flow generation.", "Expansion into digital assets offers growth potential.", "Regulatory and competitive risks temper upside." ], "target_price_6m": 300, "target_price_12m": 310 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 363, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:57.850Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2095, "outputTokens": 4372, "costUsd": 0.002423 } }, { "id": "cmnr12qhs02m7p6583x49250n", "runId": "cmnr12qhp02m4p658evkdjh1s", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearch_CBOE\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"CBOE\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 296.95,\n \"target_price_6m\": 310.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 325.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.75,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Proprietary product suite including VIX and SPX options provides a wide economic moat.\",\n \"Elevated macro uncertainty continues to drive robust hedging demand and options trading volumes.\",\n \"Solid cash flow generation supports consistent dividend growth and opportunistic share repurchases.\",\n \"International expansion and data solutions offer long-term recurring revenue diversification opportunities.\",\n \"Valuation at ~21x forward P/E is reasonable given 15% revenue growth and high margins.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"SPX Options Volume\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"VIX Futures & Options Volume\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Market Volatility / Macro Uncertainty\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Data and Access Solutions Revenue\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory Scrutiny on Retail Options\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"International Exchange Growth\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest Rate Environment\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged periods of low market volatility suppressing core trading volumes.\",\n \"Increased competition from other exchanges and new entrants in the options space.\",\n \"Regulatory changes impacting retail options trading or payment for order flow.\",\n \"Integration risks and costs associated with recent international acquisitions.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.08,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.35,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 20.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 260.00,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Low volatility environment suppresses trading volumes and margins compress.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 325.00,\n \"prob\": 0.6,\n \"notes\": \"Steady hedging demand and data revenue growth support a 22x forward multiple.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 390.00,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Sustained high volatility and successful international expansion drive multiple expansion.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on probability-weighted scenarios and a 22x forward P/E base case. Expected return of ~9.4% supports a BUY rating. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch_CBOE", "risks": [ "Prolonged periods of low market volatility suppressing core trading volumes.", "Increased competition from other exchanges and new entrants in the options space.", "Regulatory changes impacting retail options trading or payment for order flow.", "Integration risks and costs associated with recent international acquisitions." ], "ticker": "CBOE", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady hedging demand and data revenue growth support a 22x forward multiple.", "target_price": 325 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Low volatility environment suppresses trading volumes and margins compress.", "target_price": 260 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Sustained high volatility and successful international expansion drive multiple expansion.", "target_price": 390 } }, "confidence": 0.75, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 20, "ebit_margin_target": 0.35 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "SPX Options Volume", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "VIX Futures & Options Volume", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Market Volatility / Macro Uncertainty", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Data and Access Solutions Revenue", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory Scrutiny on Retail Options", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "International Exchange Growth", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest Rate Environment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on probability-weighted scenarios and a 22x forward P/E base case. Expected return of ~9.4% supports a BUY rating. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 296.95, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Proprietary product suite including VIX and SPX options provides a wide economic moat.", "Elevated macro uncertainty continues to drive robust hedging demand and options trading volumes.", "Solid cash flow generation supports consistent dividend growth and opportunistic share repurchases.", "International expansion and data solutions offer long-term recurring revenue diversification opportunities.", "Valuation at ~21x forward P/E is reasonable given 15% revenue growth and high margins." ], "target_price_6m": 310, "target_price_12m": 325 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [ { "error": "sanity_error: buy_scenario_return_too_low: BUY requires >= 6% return from probability-weighted scenarios.", "attempt": 0, "rawOutputTruncated": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearch_CBOE\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"CBOE\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 296.95,\n \"target_price_6m\": 310.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 320.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.7,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Proprietary product suite (VIX, SPX options) provides a wide economic moat and pricing power.\",\n \"Elevated macro uncertainty continues to drive robust hedging demand and options trading volumes.\",\n \"Solid cash flow generation supports consistent dividend growth and opportunistic share repurchases.\",\n \"International expansion and data solutions offer long-term recurring revenue diversification opportunities.\",\n \"Valuation at ~21x forward P/E is reasonable given 15% revenue growth and high margins.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"SPX Options Volume\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"VIX Futures & Options Volume\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Market Volatility / Macro Uncertainty\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Data and Access Solutions Revenu…" } ], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 18676, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:57.850Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3106, "outputTokens": 852, "costUsd": 0.016436 } }, { "id": "cmnr12qhs02m5p658m2x4mxs9", "runId": "cmnr12qhp02m4p658evkdjh1s", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"CBOE\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":296.95,\"target_price_6m\":306,\"target_price_12m\":311,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.64,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"High-margin exchange model generates resilient cash flow and low balance-sheet risk.\",\"Options and index franchise supports pricing power and recurring data revenue.\",\"Recent revenue and EPS growth are strong versus many market infrastructure peers.\",\"Valuation already reflects quality, near 25x TTM EPS and 15.6x EV/EBITDA.\",\"Upside exists, but fair-value gap appears modest over 12 months.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Options volume growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Market data monetization\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Index licensing expansion\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Retail derivatives activity\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Rate and volatility normalization\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Competitive pricing pressure\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating leverage\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Capital returns\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Lower retail/options activity\",\"Regulatory changes on market structure\",\"Cyber or outage incidents\",\"Acquisition/integration missteps\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.075,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.33,\"wacc\":0.085,\"terminal_multiple\":18.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":265,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Volumes soften and multiples de-rate toward market-infrastructure averages.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":311,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Mid-single-digit growth and stable margins support modest rerating.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":350,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Sustained derivatives strength and data growth drive higher earnings.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"12M target uses earnings/cash-flow quality and terminal multiple assumptions, cross-checked to EV/EBITDA and P/E implied by snapshot fundamentals. HOLD fits modest ~4.7% 12M upside versus current price. Snapshot quote fields were kept authoritative. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation", "risks": [ "Lower retail/options activity", "Regulatory changes on market structure", "Cyber or outage incidents", "Acquisition/integration missteps" ], "ticker": "CBOE", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Mid-single-digit growth and stable margins support modest rerating.", "target_price": 311 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Volumes soften and multiples de-rate toward market-infrastructure averages.", "target_price": 265 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Sustained derivatives strength and data growth drive higher earnings.", "target_price": 350 } }, "confidence": 0.64, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.075, "terminal_multiple": 18.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.33 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Options volume growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Market data monetization", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Index licensing expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Retail derivatives activity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Rate and volatility normalization", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competitive pricing pressure", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operating leverage", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Capital returns", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "12M target uses earnings/cash-flow quality and terminal multiple assumptions, cross-checked to EV/EBITDA and P/E implied by snapshot fundamentals. HOLD fits modest ~4.7% 12M upside versus current price. 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