{ "run": { "id": "cmnr12gcd0294p658qxiydxz9", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr12gbv0290p658iasdkk1y", "ticker": "AVY", "snapshotId": "cmnr12gc10292p658uc99bx89", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:44.698Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr12gc10292p658uc99bx89", "assetId": "cmnr12gbv0290p658iasdkk1y", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "open": null, "price": 175.31, "dayLow": 172, "volume": 447498, "dayHigh": 175.982, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 167.5, "week52Low": 156.23, "week52High": 199.54 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 19.5043103448276, "beta": 1.03162531978747, "epsTTM": 9.28, "fcfTTM": 785200000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.004561003420752672, "revenueYoy": 0.01139828911451968 }, "sector": "Converted Paper & Paperboard Prods (No Contaners/Boxes)", "margins": { "net": 0.07769182993619785, "gross": 0.2875388176839253, "operating": null }, "website": "https://averydennison.com", "industry": "Packaging", "pegRatio": 4.97638546798029, "ebitdaTTM": 1159300000, "forwardPe": 22.9404309252218, "marketCap": 13600000000, "totalCash": 202800000, "totalDebt": 3721900000, "debtEquity": 1.52248794409999, "quickRatio": 0.6431640036177269, "revenueTTM": 8855500000, "companyName": "Avery Dennison Corp", "priceToBook": 2.86749373871513, "currentRatio": 1.126884232740428, "dividendYield": 0.0161751164554219, "returnOnAssets": 0.0781667177931536, "returnOnEquity": 0.372551914181675, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Avery Dennison Corporation is an American multinational manufacturer and distributor of pressure-sensitive adhesive materials (such as self-adhesive labels), apparel branding labels and tags, RFID inlays, and specialty medical products. The company is a member of the Fortune 500 and is headquartered in Mentor, Ohio.", "enterpriseValue": 17696400000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 35000, "sharesOutstanding": 76877940, "enterpriseToEbitda": 15.26472871560424, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 1.998351307097284, "operatingCashflowTTM": 881400000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:44.689Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr12gcg0296p6582r17ivso", "runId": "cmnr12gcd0294p658qxiydxz9", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"AVY\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":175.31,\"target_price_6m\":180,\"target_price_12m\":184,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.6,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Mature labels business delivers steady but low-single-digit revenue growth\",\"RFID/Intelligent Labels segment provides long-term secular growth optionality\",\"High leverage (D/E 1.52) constrains financial flexibility in a slowdown\",\"Forward P/E of 22.9x implies lower consensus EPS vs TTM, signaling caution\",\"Strong FCF generation (~5.8% yield) supports dividend and buybacks\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"RFID/Intelligent Labels adoption in retail and logistics\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Pressure-sensitive materials demand tied to global GDP\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Elevated debt levels limiting capital allocation flexibility\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Raw material and input cost inflation risks\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Modest organic revenue growth (~1% YoY)\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Strong free cash flow conversion supporting shareholder returns\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Potential macro slowdown impacting packaging end-markets\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend yield of ~1.6% providing income floor\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Macro deceleration reduces demand across adhesive and label end-markets\",\"Rising input costs compress gross margins below 28.8%\",\"High debt load increases refinancing risk if rates stay elevated\",\"RFID adoption slower than expected, limiting growth premium\",\"Forward EPS consensus decline suggests near-term earnings headwinds\",\"FX headwinds from strong USD on international revenue\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.03,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.115,\"wacc\":0.09,\"terminal_multiple\":19},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":148,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Macro recession compresses margins; EPS falls to ~$8.50, valued at 17.5x.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":184,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Stable operations, EPS ~$9.40 with modest margin gains, valued at ~19.5x.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":212,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"RFID accelerates, margin expansion drives EPS to ~$10.10, rerating to 21x.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended P/E and EV/EBITDA approach. TTM EPS $9.28 with ~1% growth; forward P/E 22.9x implies Street sees lower forward EPS (~$7.64), suggesting near-term headwinds. Base case assumes normalization to ~$9.40 EPS at historical ~19.5x multiple. 12M expected return ~5%, within HOLD range given mixed growth signals and elevated leverage. PEG of ~5 confirms limited growth-adjusted value. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Macro deceleration reduces demand across adhesive and label end-markets", "Rising input costs compress gross margins below 28.8%", "High debt load increases refinancing risk if rates stay elevated", "RFID adoption slower than expected, limiting growth premium", "Forward EPS consensus decline suggests near-term earnings headwinds", "FX headwinds from strong USD on international revenue" ], "ticker": "AVY", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Stable operations, EPS ~$9.40 with modest margin gains, valued at ~19.5x.", "target_price": 184 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Macro recession compresses margins; EPS falls to ~$8.50, valued at 17.5x.", "target_price": 148 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "RFID accelerates, margin expansion drives EPS to ~$10.10, rerating to 21x.", "target_price": 212 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.03, "terminal_multiple": 19, "ebit_margin_target": 0.115 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "RFID/Intelligent Labels adoption in retail and logistics", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Pressure-sensitive materials demand tied to global GDP", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Elevated debt levels limiting capital allocation flexibility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Raw material and input cost inflation risks", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Modest organic revenue growth (~1% YoY)", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Strong free cash flow conversion supporting shareholder returns", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Potential macro slowdown impacting packaging end-markets", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend yield of ~1.6% providing income floor", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Blended P/E and EV/EBITDA approach. TTM EPS $9.28 with ~1% growth; forward P/E 22.9x implies Street sees lower forward EPS (~$7.64), suggesting near-term headwinds. Base case assumes normalization to ~$9.40 EPS at historical ~19.5x multiple. 12M expected return ~5%, within HOLD range given mixed growth signals and elevated leverage. PEG of ~5 confirms limited growth-adjusted value. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 175.31, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Mature labels business delivers steady but low-single-digit revenue growth", "RFID/Intelligent Labels segment provides long-term secular growth optionality", "High leverage (D/E 1.52) constrains financial flexibility in a slowdown", "Forward P/E of 22.9x implies lower consensus EPS vs TTM, signaling caution", "Strong FCF generation (~5.8% yield) supports dividend and buybacks" ], "target_price_6m": 180, "target_price_12m": 184 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 37984, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:44.698Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3594, "outputTokens": 1716, "costUsd": 0.06087 } }, { "id": "cmnr12gcg0299p6584przdw3h", "runId": "cmnr12gcd0294p658qxiydxz9", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"AVY\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 175.31,\n \"target_price_6m\": 177.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 180.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Stable packaging demand supports base revenue.\",\n \"Low growth in mature markets limits upside potential.\",\n \"Efficient operations maintain solid profit margins.\",\n \"High debt levels increase financial risk.\",\n \"Valuation appears fair relative to peers.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Revenue growth in emerging markets\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Cost inflation pressures\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt reduction efforts\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Technological adoption in labeling\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competitive industry pressures\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Economic cycle sensitivity\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Dividend yield stability\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Economic downturn reducing packaging demand\",\n \"Rising interest rates increasing debt costs\",\n \"Raw material price volatility\",\n \"Intense competition in packaging\",\n \"Regulatory changes affecting operations\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.02,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.1,\n \"wacc\": 0.08,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 12.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 160.0, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Economic recession significantly impacts sales and margins.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 180.0, \"prob\": 0.5, \"notes\": \"Steady growth with moderate operational improvements.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 195.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong recovery and margin expansion drive outperformance.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF valuation with assumed 2% revenue CAGR, 10% EBIT margin, 8% WACC, 12x terminal multiple. HOLD due to limited upside/downside and fair valuation. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Economic downturn reducing packaging demand", "Rising interest rates increasing debt costs", "Raw material price volatility", "Intense competition in packaging", "Regulatory changes affecting operations" ], "ticker": "AVY", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady growth with moderate operational improvements.", "target_price": 180 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Economic recession significantly impacts sales and margins.", "target_price": 160 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong recovery and margin expansion drive outperformance.", "target_price": 195 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.08, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.02, "terminal_multiple": 12, "ebit_margin_target": 0.1 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Revenue growth in emerging markets", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cost inflation pressures", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt reduction efforts", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Technological adoption in labeling", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive industry pressures", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Economic cycle sensitivity", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend yield stability", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "DCF valuation with assumed 2% revenue CAGR, 10% EBIT margin, 8% WACC, 12x terminal multiple. HOLD due to limited upside/downside and fair valuation. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 175.31, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stable packaging demand supports base revenue.", "Low growth in mature markets limits upside potential.", "Efficient operations maintain solid profit margins.", "High debt levels increase financial risk.", "Valuation appears fair relative to peers." ], "target_price_6m": 177, "target_price_12m": 180 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 364, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:44.698Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2096, "outputTokens": 3307, "costUsd": 0.001976 } }, { "id": "cmnr12gcg0297p658uz84ssvn", "runId": "cmnr12gcd0294p658qxiydxz9", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Model Recommendation\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"AVY\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 175.31,\n \"target_price_6m\": 177.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 180.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Sluggish near-term revenue and EPS growth limit immediate upside potential.\",\n \"Forward P/E of 23x appears rich for a low-growth packaging profile.\",\n \"Strong FCF generation supports the dividend and ongoing debt reduction.\",\n \"RFID adoption in apparel and logistics provides long-term structural tailwinds.\",\n \"High leverage requires monitoring amid elevated interest rates and macro uncertainty.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"RFID inlay volume growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Retail apparel inventory destocking\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Raw material cost inflation\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"E-commerce logistics demand\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Pricing power in label materials\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest expense on debt load\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged weakness in global retail and apparel markets.\",\n \"Inability to pass through raw material inflation to customers.\",\n \"Slower-than-expected adoption of RFID outside of apparel.\",\n \"High debt load restricting capital allocation flexibility.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.035,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.115,\n \"wacc\": 0.082,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 14.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 145.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Macro recession hits retail volumes and margins compress due to input costs.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 180.00,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Gradual volume recovery and steady RFID growth offset by normalized multiples.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 210.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Rapid RFID adoption in food/logistics drives margin expansion and multiple rerating.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a blend of DCF (8.2% WACC) and historical EV/EBITDA multiples (14x). The rich forward P/E and sluggish near-term growth limit upside, justifying a HOLD rating with a +2.6% expected return. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation", "risks": [ "Prolonged weakness in global retail and apparel markets.", "Inability to pass through raw material inflation to customers.", "Slower-than-expected adoption of RFID outside of apparel.", "High debt load restricting capital allocation flexibility." ], "ticker": "AVY", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Gradual volume recovery and steady RFID growth offset by normalized multiples.", "target_price": 180 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Macro recession hits retail volumes and margins compress due to input costs.", "target_price": 145 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Rapid RFID adoption in food/logistics drives margin expansion and multiple rerating.", "target_price": 210 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.082, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.035, "terminal_multiple": 14, "ebit_margin_target": 0.115 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "RFID inlay volume growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Retail apparel inventory destocking", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Raw material cost inflation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "E-commerce logistics demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Pricing power in label materials", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest expense on debt load", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a blend of DCF (8.2% WACC) and historical EV/EBITDA multiples (14x). The rich forward P/E and sluggish near-term growth limit upside, justifying a HOLD rating with a +2.6% expected return. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 175.31, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Sluggish near-term revenue and EPS growth limit immediate upside potential.", "Forward P/E of 23x appears rich for a low-growth packaging profile.", "Strong FCF generation supports the dividend and ongoing debt reduction.", "RFID adoption in apparel and logistics provides long-term structural tailwinds.", "High leverage requires monitoring amid elevated interest rates and macro uncertainty." ], "target_price_6m": 177, "target_price_12m": 180 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 27487, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:44.698Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2446, "outputTokens": 825, "costUsd": 0.014792 } }, { "id": "cmnr12gcg0295p658sarpta9j", "runId": "cmnr12gcd0294p658qxiydxz9", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"gpt-5\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"AVY\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":175.31,\"target_price_6m\":181,\"target_price_12m\":185,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.63,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"RFID and intelligent labels support above-industry mix improvement.\",\"Core materials demand remains sluggish, limiting near-term volume leverage.\",\"Shares trade near fair value on muted growth and premium multiples.\",\"Solid FCF supports dividends, buybacks, and gradual deleveraging.\",\"Higher forward P/E and leverage cap upside if execution slips.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"RFID adoption\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Pricing and mix\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Materials volume recovery\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Raw material inflation\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Apparel demand\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"FX translation\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Debt reduction\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Share repurchases\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Raw material inflation compresses margins.\",\"RFID adoption slows versus expectations.\",\"Customer destocking or weak industrial demand persists.\",\"Leverage limits flexibility in a downturn.\",\"FX or trade disruptions pressure earnings.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.045,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.115,\"wacc\":0.082,\"terminal_multiple\":14.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":152,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Volumes stay soft and margin gains stall.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":185,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Modest growth, stable margins, and steady capital returns.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":212,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"RFID scales faster and core labels recover.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Targets use a blended forward EPS/EV-EBIT approach anchored to snapshot fundamentals and stated assumptions; no sell-side targets used. Snapshot quote fields were kept authoritative. HOLD fits mixed growth/valuation signals and ~5% 12M upside; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "gpt-5", "risks": [ "Raw material inflation compresses margins.", "RFID adoption slows versus expectations.", "Customer destocking or weak industrial demand persists.", "Leverage limits flexibility in a downturn.", "FX or trade disruptions pressure earnings." ], "ticker": "AVY", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Modest growth, stable margins, and steady capital returns.", "target_price": 185 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Volumes stay soft and margin gains stall.", "target_price": 152 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "RFID scales faster and core labels recover.", "target_price": 212 } }, "confidence": 0.63, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.082, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.045, "terminal_multiple": 14.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.115 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "RFID adoption", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Pricing and mix", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Materials volume recovery", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Raw material inflation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Apparel demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "FX translation", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt reduction", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Share repurchases", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Targets use a blended forward EPS/EV-EBIT approach anchored to snapshot fundamentals and stated assumptions; no sell-side targets used. Snapshot quote fields were kept authoritative. HOLD fits mixed growth/valuation signals and ~5% 12M upside; not investment advice.", "current_price": 175.31, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "RFID and intelligent labels support above-industry mix improvement.", "Core materials demand remains sluggish, limiting near-term volume leverage.", "Shares trade near fair value on muted growth and premium multiples.", "Solid FCF supports dividends, buybacks, and gradual deleveraging.", "Higher forward P/E and leverage cap upside if execution slips." ], "target_price_6m": 181, "target_price_12m": 185 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_0075541cd1fd27100069d7563ae67c8197aaeb775a25b93a02", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 34484, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:44.698Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2366, "outputTokens": 1833, "costUsd": 0.029803 } }, { "id": "cmnr12gcg0298p6588zxk2lef", "runId": "cmnr12gcd0294p658qxiydxz9", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Analyst\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"AVY\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 175.31,\n \"target_price_6m\": 177,\n \"target_price_12m\": 183,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.58,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Low YOY revenue growth reflects weak end-market demand\",\n \"RFID and specialty segments poised for faster growth\",\n \"Robust cash flows support dividends and deleveraging\",\n \"Premium valuation with high PEG ratio caps upside\",\n \"Margin expansion from efficiency gains a key positive\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"End-market demand in packaging\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"RFID technology adoption\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Raw material cost fluctuations\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operational cost efficiencies\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Balance sheet leverage\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Sustainability product trends\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Global economic growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Cyclical downturn in apparel and packaging\",\n \"Failure to grow high-value segments\",\n \"Rising interest rates on variable debt\",\n \"Intensifying competition from peers\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 3.2,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.135,\n \"wacc\": 0.082,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 15\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 150,\n \"prob\": 0.3,\n \"notes\": \"Recession leads to volume declines and de-rating.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 183,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Stable growth with modest multiple expansion.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 220,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Strong RFID demand accelerates growth and margins.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF model using assumed revenue CAGR, target EBIT margin, WACC and terminal multiple. Mixed evidence and fair valuation lead to HOLD. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Analyst", "risks": [ "Cyclical downturn in apparel and packaging", "Failure to grow high-value segments", "Rising interest rates on variable debt", "Intensifying competition from peers" ], "ticker": "AVY", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Stable growth with modest multiple expansion.", "target_price": 183 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Recession leads to volume declines and de-rating.", "target_price": 150 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong RFID demand accelerates growth and margins.", "target_price": 220 } }, "confidence": 0.58, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.082, "revenue_cagr_3y": 3.2, "terminal_multiple": 15, "ebit_margin_target": 0.135 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "End-market demand in packaging", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "RFID technology adoption", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Raw material cost fluctuations", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operational cost efficiencies", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Balance sheet leverage", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Sustainability product trends", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Global economic growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "DCF model using assumed revenue CAGR, target EBIT margin, WACC and terminal multiple. Mixed evidence and fair valuation lead to HOLD. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 175.31, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Low YOY revenue growth reflects weak end-market demand", "RFID and specialty segments poised for faster growth", "Robust cash flows support dividends and deleveraging", "Premium valuation with high PEG ratio caps upside", "Margin expansion from efficiency gains a key positive" ], "target_price_6m": 177, "target_price_12m": 183 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "0d59974b-f98c-91c1-9291-edc3355a3b0b", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 22753, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:44.698Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2705, "outputTokens": 4364, "costUsd": 0.073575 } } ] } }